Comparison of Hybrid and Pure Machine Learning Models in Limited Data Scenarios
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Furlong, Aidan↗
Engineering topics
Zhao, Xingang
Publications and source records attributed to Zhao, Xingang.
Decision-making based on Markov decision process in integrated artificial reasoning framework—Part I: Theory
This paper presents a decision-making framework based on an integrated artificial reasoning framework and Markov decision process (MDP). The integrated artificial reasoning framework provides a physics-based approach that converts system information into state transition models, and the analysis result will be represented by the transition probabilities that can be used with an MDP to find a traceable and explainable optimal pathway. A dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) is well suited for representing the structure of an MDP. The causality information among process variables (or among subsystems) is mathematically represented in a DBN by the conditional probabilities of the node’s states provided different probabilities of the parent node’s states. To define node states in a physically understandable manner, we used multilevel flow modeling (MFM). An MFM follows the fundamental energy and mass conservation laws and supports the selection of process variables that represent the system of interest so that causal relations among process variables are properly captured. An MFM-based DBN supports developing state transition models in an MDP to capture the effect of process variables of system having physical relations. The operators of the target system can capture stochastic system dynamics as multiple subsystem state transitions based on their physical relations and uncertainties coming from component degradation or random failures. We analyzed a simplified exemplary system to illustrate an optimal operational policy using the suggested approach.
Markov decision process↗
Machine Learning for Gas Void Fraction Prediction in Two-Phase Flow
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Pournia, Farnam↗
Prognostic model and failure mechanisms of steam generators in Sodium-Cooled fast reactors
This paper presents a prognostic model for sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR) steam generators (SGs). Here, the purpose of the model is to estimate the remaining useful life of SFR SGs and thus to support the decision-making of autonomous control. SFR SGs are of great interest for plant integrity due to their harsh operation environment. They operate at higher temperatures and higher coolant-to-steam pressure differences than those of current light water reactors (LWR). The severity of the SFR SG failure consequences, which include water-sodium contact, is another reason. Understanding its failure mechanisms is important for the development of its prognostic model. Based on our literature review and physics-based analysis, we concluded that creep would be a dominant degradation mode of SFR SGs due to SFR’s high-temperature and high-pressure environment. Thus, creep is the focus of the prognostic model. Various other failure modes were also investigated in this study. The mechanical fatigue due to flow-induced vibration is usually observed in early developmental phases and would not be an important issue during normal operation. The thermal fatigue due to thermal stripping is occasionally observed in other components in SFRs but does not affect SG integrity. Pure water stress corrosive crack, fretting, and so on are commonly observed in LWR SGs but are significantly less important in SFR SGs because of the high temperatures, high pressure differences, and chemical properties of liquid sodium. Based on these investigations, a prognostic model focusing on creep failures was developed. It estimates the failure probability profile by sampling the Larson-Miller parameter (LMP) and temperature and associated uncertainties through Monte Carlo methods. Two case studies were presented. The first one demonstrated the model’s capability to calculate the failure probability for a new specimen within a given time. If the tube is working under temperatures of 500C ± 3 and pressures of 15.2 MPa, which leads to LMP of 20,100 ± 50, the failure probabilities within 50, 70, and 90 years are approximately 0.1 %, 3.2 %, and 17.5 %. The second demonstrated how adjusting the workload can help to protect the integrity of the component. For an old tube reaching 99 % of its lifespan, continuing to run at temperatures of 500C ± 3 and LMP of 20,100 ± 50 leads to a failure probability of about 29.0 % within a year. If the temperature is reduced by 5C, the failure probability can be reduced to 2.5 %, and, if the pressure is also reduced such that the LMP is increased by 100, the failure probability can further be reduced to 0.12 %.
21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
Machine Learning for Time-Series Prediction of the Cryogenic Moderator System in Oak Ridge National Laboratory's Spallation Neutron Source Facility
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McDuffee, Gavin↗
AIRES-NODE
This software package performs time series forecasting for engineering systems using neural controlled differential equations. Neural controlled differential equations are continuous time analogues to recurrent neural networks. AIRES-NODE is particularly well suited for dynamic systems which are subject to external forcing terms and time-dependent boundary conditions. AIRES-NODE provides an encoder-decoder architecture which allows for variable-length forecasts to be made and is not limited to a fixed time step size when forecasting. Additionally, by utilizing a novel combination of a variational autoencoder and neural controlled differential equations, the AIRES-NODE package is capable of producing probabilistic future forecasts.
Gurecky, William [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (O↗
CTF Validation and Verification: Version 4.4
Coolant-Boiling in Rod Arrays- Two Fluids (COBRA-TF) is a thermal/hydraulic (T/H) simulation code designed for light water reactor (LWR) analysis. It uses a two-fluid, three-field (i.e., fluid film, fluid drops, and vapor) modeling approach. Both subchannel and 3D Cartesian forms of nine conservation equations are available for LWR modeling. The code was originally developed by Pacific Northwest Laboratory in 1980 and has been used and modified by several institutions over the last several decades. COBRA-TF is also used at the Pennsylvania State University (PSU) by the Reactor Dynamics and Fuel Modeling Group (RDFMG) and has been improved, updated, and subsequently became the CTF. One part of the improvement process includes validating the methods in CTF. This document seeks to provide a certain level of certainty and confidence in the predictive capabilities of the code for the scenarios it was designed to model—rod bundle geometries with operating conditions that are representative of prototypical pressurized water reactor (PWR)s and boiling water reactor (BWR)s in both normal and accident conditions. This is done by modeling a variety of experiments that simulate these scenarios and then presenting a qualitative and quantitative analysis of the results that demonstrates the accuracy to which CTF is capable of capturing specific quantities of interest.
11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
Operation Optimization using Reinforcement Learning with Integrated Artificial Reasoning Framework
In large and complex systems, operational decision-making requires a systematic analysis with a vast amount of data from both process parameters and component status monitoring. In this paper, we present an integrated artificial reasoning approach for system state transition models that can help operational decision-making with explainable and traceable reasoning. The integrated artificial reasoning framework is a physics-based approach of defining the system structure in a Bayesian network, so we leveraged it in a Markov decision process (MDP) for finding optimal operational solutions. In our proposed framework, the MDP is implemented on a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN), which represents causalities in a system. The multilevel flow modeling was utilized in order to extract these causalities in a more efficient and objective manner. Since multilevel flow modeling is based on the fundamental energy and mass conservation laws, the target system is decomposed into several mass, energy, and information structures, which serve as the basis for a DBN. The MDP consists of the processes of finding a solution for the Bellman equation, which can be derived from the conditional probability equations of the constructed DBN. System operators can capture stochastic system dynamics as multiple subsystem state transitions based on their physical relations and uncertainties coming from the component degradation process or random failures. We analyzed a simplified example system to illustrate finding an optimal operational policy with this approach.
99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
Knowledge-Informed Uncertainty-Aware Machine Learning for Time Series Forecasting of Dynamical Engineered Systems
The high complexity and multiscale nature of many engineered systems—such as those in nuclear power plants—make representing and forecasting their dynamic behavior challenging. Physics-based models can be overly complex and computationally intractable, whereas machine learning (ML) tools are often data-hungry and prone to unphysical solutions. This study proposes a knowledge-informed ML-aided hybrid residual modeling approach that offers accurate and efficient time series forecasting for the operation of dynamical engineered systems. Hybrid residual modeling entails a baseline solution from domain knowledge and known physics expressions about the system dynamics integrated with an ML model to capture undiscovered information from the mismatch (i.e., residuals) between true states from measurements and baseline-predicted outputs. This study further quantifies the ML model uncertainty to provide trustworthy solutions. Real-time operational data from thermal-hydraulic flow loops of the cryogenic moderator system in Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s Spallation Neutron Source facility were used to demonstrate the potential of knowledge-informed uncertainty-aware ML in real-world applications. The state variables of the cryogenic helium loop were modeled with (1) first principles–based system identification (sysID), (2) long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network, and (3) hybrid sysID (baseline) + LSTM (residual). The superior predictive capability of the sysID+LSTM model versus stand-alone sysID and LSTM is confirmed by average performance metrics and individual data points across different prediction horizons. By creating a robust representation of the underlying physical system, the widely applicable hybrid residual modeling approach will enable the future development of digital twins for performance prediction, prognostics, and operation control.
Zhao, Xingang↗
Technical Challenges and Gaps in Integration of Advanced Sensors, Instrumentation, and Communication Technologies with Digital Twins for Nuclear Application
This paper explores integrating advanced sensor, instrumentation, and communication technologies with digital twin technologies for nuclear energy application. Digital twins and digital-twin-enabling technologies are expected to integrate with future nuclear reactor designs and have the potential to impact currently operating nuclear power plants. Greater digital integration, advanced instrumentation and control systems, and advanced operations and maintenance practices are all associated with digital-twin-enabling technologies. Advanced sensors, instrumentation, and communication technology are expected to comprise important elements of the infrastructure required to develop and operate a nuclear digital twin system. This paper identifies and discusses challenges and gaps in developing and implementing advanced sensors and instrumentation and communication technology to be integrated with a digital twin in current and advanced reactor applications. It is important to address some challenge and gap to enable a successful near-term deploying advanced sensors, instrumentation, and communication technologies integrated with digital twins.
Yadav, Vaibhav↗
Operation Optimization Using Reinforcement Learning with Integrated Artificial Reasoning Framework
In large and complex systems, operational decision-making requires a systematic analysis with a vast amount of data from both process parameters and component status monitoring. In this paper, we present an integrated artificial reasoning approach for system state transition models that can help operational decision-making with explainable and traceable reasoning. The integrated artificial reasoning framework is a physics-based approach of defining the system structure in a Bayesian network, so we leveraged it in a Markov decision process (MDP) for finding optimal operational solutions. In our proposed framework, the MDP is implemented on a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN), which represents causalities in a system. The multilevel flow modeling was utilized in order to extract these causalities in a more efficient and objective manner. Since multilevel flow modeling is based on the fundamental energy and mass conservation laws, the target system is decomposed into several mass, energy, and information structures, which serve as the basis for a DBN. The MDP consists of the processes of finding a solution for the Bellman equation, which can be derived from the conditional probability equations of the constructed DBN. System operators can capture stochastic system dynamics as multiple subsystem state transitions based on their physical relations and uncertainties coming from the component degradation process or random failures. We analyzed a simplified example system to illustrate finding an optimal operational policy with this approach.
Kim, Junyung↗
Digital Twin Development of FASTR
This work package is focused on creating a digital twin (DT) of the Facility to Alleviate Salt Technology Risks (FASTR) experiment. FASTR is a high-profile facility tasked with maturing molten salt applications such as liquid salt energy storage, concentrated solar power facilities, and molten salt cooling systems supporting other advanced reactor technologies, all of which may be incorporated as components within the Integrated Energy Systems (IES) program. As part of creating a digital twin (DT), verification and validation (V&V) has been performed for the physics-based model, and gaps have been identified. Additionally, a preliminary integration of the FASTR model has been completed with the existing physics-based model of the Thermal Energy Distribution System (TEDS)/Microreactor AGile Non-nuclear Experimental Testbed (MAGNET) facility at Idaho National Laboratory (INL). A Functional Mock-up Unit (FMU) of the physics-based system model and a reduced-order model (ROM) were both used to test for a preliminary hardware in the loop operation when the physical loop was offline. Future tasks could include improving the physics-based model to better match the available experimental data, improving the hardware in the loop integration, and improving the integration with the TEDS model.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Singlet Fission in Perylene Monoimide Single Crystals and Polycrystalline Films
Not provided.
Chemistry↗
Bayesian Network–Based Fault Diagnostic System for Nuclear Power Plant Assets
Not Available
artificial intelligence↗
CTF: A modernized, production-level, thermal hydraulic solver for the solution of industry-relevant challenge problems in pressurized water reactors
CTF is a thermal hydraulic (T/H) subchannel tool that has been extensively developed over the past ten years as part of the Consortium for Advanced Simulation of Light Water Reactors (CASL) program. The code was selected early in the CASL program for support of high-impact challenge problems that were found to be relevant to the nuclear industry and its currently operating fleet of pressurized water reactors (PWRs), including issues such as departure from nucleate boiling (DNB), crud-induced power shifts (CIPSs), and reactivity-insertion accidents (RIAs). By incorporating CTF into the multiphysics Virtual Environment for Reactor Application (VERA) core simulator software developed by CASL, CTF has become the primary means of providing fluid and fuel thermal feedback, as well as T/H figure-of-merits (FOMs) in large-scale reactor simulations. With the goal of solving industry challenge problems, CASL placed great emphasis on developing high-quality, high-performance, validated software tools that offer higher fidelity than what is currently possible with current industry methods. In support of this effort, CTF was developed from a research tool into an nuclear quality assurance (NQA-1)–compliant, production-level software tool that is capable of addressing the stated challenge problems and goals of CASL. This work presents a review of the major technological achievements that were realized in developing CTF over the past decade of the CASL program and presents an overview of the code solution approach and closure models.
22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗