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Yang, Zhaoqing

Publications and source records attributed to Yang, Zhaoqing.

At least 19 records

Future North Atlantic tropical cyclone intensities in thermodynamically modified historical environments

Tropical cyclones (TCs) rank as the deadliest and most financially crippling natural disasters in the United States for the last half-century. It is imperative to assess potential shifts in TC intensity within the paradigm of an evolving climate. In this study, we have modeled the intensities of 620 historical TC events in the North Atlantic Basin using the Risk Analysis Framework for Tropical Cyclones (RAFT)'s deep learning intensity model. By applying a thermodynamic warming signal extrapolated from Global Climate Models, we rerun historical events under eight different future climate scenarios, providing a spectrum of potential TC intensity outcomes. One of the future simulations indicates a staggering 43% increase in the number of major hurricanes, underscoring the critical impact of climate change on TC intensity. Additionally, an interactive dashboard has been created to enable users to explore individual storm simulations and understand the influence of future climate signals on environmental conditions of TC development and resulting TC intensities. This dataset and the user-friendly tool offer invaluable resources for systematic exploration of the discrete effects that changes in the air-sea thermodynamic state have on the intensities of TCs.

Climate Change↗

Estuarine hurricane wind can intensify surge-dominated extreme water level in shallow and converging coastal systems

Based on the projected increase in hurricane landfall frequency on the middle to lower US east coast, we examined the crucial role of the estuarine wind field in exacerbating coastal flooding. A regionally refined atmospheric and two high-resolution hydrology and ocean models are integrated to provide plausible and physically consistent ensembles of hurricane events and the associated flooding inside the Delaware Bay and River, a US mid-Atlantic estuary. Model results show that the hurricane propagation direction, estuarine geometry, remote surge from the open ocean, and direct nearshore upwind stress could magnify the flood magnitude. More specifically, inland-bound tracks that make landfall before reaching the mid-Atlantic coast produce a more significant surge within Delaware Bay than the shore-parallel tracks, where the estuarine wind direction plays the primary role in surge amplification. Ultimately, this study emphasized the need for integrated models to capture the nonlinear dynamics and interactions in flood hazard modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Quantifying the Influence of Size, Shape, and Density of Microplastics on Their Transport Modes: A Modeling Approach

Microplastics (MPs) pose significant risks to marine ecosystems and human health, necessitating accurate predictions of their distributions in aquatic environments for effective risk mitigation. However, understanding MP transport dynamics is challenging because of the inadequate representation of MP characteristics such as size, shape, and density in numerical models. Further, the accuracy of the MP vertical profiles in existing models has not been thoroughly validated. Thus, we developed an MP transport model within the Finite Volume Community Ocean Model framework (FVCOM-MP) by integrating MP characteristics. We validated FVCOM-MP against experimental and analytical data, focusing on various MP transport modes and transitions. FVCOM-MP successfully replicates MP profiles in different transport modes, including the bedload, surface-load, suspended-load, and mixed-load modes. Additionally, we introduce phase diagrams for classifying MP transport modes based on particle characteristics, enhancing our understanding of MP dynamics in aquatic systems. The transport modes for a number of real-world MP particles, including fishing line, plastic bag/bottle fragments, synthetic fibers, tire wear particles, polyvinyl chloride and expanded polystyrene pellets, were analyzed with these phase diagrams.

Microplastic transport, Settling velocity, Rising ↗

Response of salt intrusion in a tidal estuary to regional climatic forcing

Abstract Salinity distribution in a large tidal estuary is subject to estuarine adjustment under the influences of multiple physical drivers such as freshwater pulses and sea level rise, and is crucial to upstream water quality, aquaculture, and ecosystem functions of the estuary. To better understand the estuarine salinity response to climate change, the unstructured-grid Finite Volume Community Ocean Model was implemented to simulate the salt intrusion in the Delaware Bay Estuary. The model was first validated by multiple observational data sets and subsequently applied in an idealized setting to examine the response of salt front to freshwater pulses in high flow conditions, followed by a long-term drought condition supported by a multi-decadal streamflow drought analysis in the estuary. The model results showed that after the freshwater pulses the salt front location moved further upstream with sea level rise. Under the simulated long-term drought condition, the adjustment timescale of salt intrusion varies nonlinearly with sea level rise. With a significant increase in sea level rise, the adjustment timescale starts to decrease. This shift suggests a transition into a different regime where the estuary becomes more stratified, as indicated by an increasing bulk Simpson number with rising sea levels.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Hydrokinetic tidal energy resource assessment following international electrotechnical commission guidelines

Marine renewable energy can be used as a viable energy source to alleviate the impact of the climate crisis and have a carbon-free electricity sector in the future. Especially the energetic tidal streams are an attractive source of clean energy due to the periodic occurrence of high tidal flows daily. However, before any deployment of tidal turbine farms, it is essential to perform a resource assessment depending on the scope and scale of the project. Here, the International Electrotechnical Commission has developed a technical standard for assessing the tidal stream resource "IEC 62600-201 TS" to aid in this effort: determine a particular site's feasibility and perform the project layout design. In this study, we implemented and validated a high-resolution three-dimensional numerical model and provided results following the IEC TS for a project layout design in a highly energetic tidal channel, Tacoma Narrows of Puget Sound, in the State of Washington, USA. Implementation of the guidelines has helped adequately identify the undisturbed theoretical and technical resources with less bias, where the latter included energy extraction from the flow field arranging a hypothetical tidal energy converter (TEC) array. Also, following the standard, we carefully assessed the changes to channel flow properties from TECs, such as the kinetic energy flux and annual energy production (AEP), to provide the detailed information required for a larger project layout design. Ultimately, this work has shown the important role of IEC TS in tidal stream resource assessment, which can simultaneously act as a benchmark for other studies worldwide.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Assessing Impacts of Waves on Hub-Height Winds off the U.S. West Coast Using Lidar Buoys and Coupled Modeling Approaches

Given the importance of offshore wind energy development to the U.S. clean energy targets, it is vital to be able to characterize the wind resource in that environment accurately. Toward that end, two Bureau of Ocean Energy Management buoys equipped with Doppler lidar are being maintained by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory on behalf of the Department of Energy and deployed to regions of potential offshore wind development. In addition to standard meteorological and oceanographic measurements, the buoys document the wind profile between about 40 m and 250 m above the sea surface through Doppler lidar retrievals. After a multiyear deployment of two buoys along the U.S. East Coast, the buoys were redeployed to the U.S. West coast from 2020 – 2022 to locations near the Humboldt and Morro Bay lease areas. The buoys provide nearly continuous, multiyear datasets that can be used to evaluate predictions of hub-height (~100 m) wind speed for standard atmospheric models in the region. In the absence of measurements at the study site, offshore wind developers rely on model-based data to assess site conditions. Potential sources of model error in this environment include under-resolution or misrepresentation of coastal topographically forced flows, marine boundary layer dynamics and the evolution of their associated cloud and turbulence fields, the role of upwelling and other currents on surface heat fluxes into the boundary layer, and the impact of wave fields on surface momentum fluxes and thus the wind speed profile. In particular, most predictive models of wind speed do not predict wave fields at all, relying on parameterizations to represent their effects. In thus study, we focus on evaluating the role of wind / wave interactions on modeled hub-height wind speed and error by using the Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere–Wave–Sediment–Transport Modeling System to capture two-way interactions between an atmospheric model (Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)) and a wave model (WAVEWATCHIII (WW3)) and compare to both stand-alone WRF and one-way coupled WRF / WW3 configurations. Our approach is similar to that used in Gaudet et al. (2022) to evaluate wind / wave coupling over the U.S. East Coast, but applied to the very different environment of the U.S. West Coast. We show examples for two cases, a cold-season frontal case and a warm-season low-level jet case. We find that wind / wave coupling makes little impact on model error for these cases at the location of the lidar buoys, for which other misrepresentations of model physics seems to be responsible for model-observation discrepancies. However, domain-wide evaluations, which also make use of the National Buoy Data Center network, show that a two-way coupling approach is less prone to systematic errors in the hub-height wind field than the one-way coupled approach. WRF resolution of kilometer-scale or less is needed to properly capture the sharp wind speed gradients that can be found along the coastline, and WW3 simulations driven by the downscaled WRF produce better bulk and spectral wave fields when compared to observations. Implications of the results for wind resource characterization are then discussed.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Response Of Salt Intrusion In A Tidal Estuary To Regional Climatic Forcing (FVCOM Output for the baseline scenario)

Salinity distribution in a large tidal estuary is subject to estuarine adjustment under the influences of multiple physical drivers such as freshwater pulses and sea level rise, and is crucial to upstream water quality, aquaculture, and ecosystem functions of the estuary. To better understand the estuarine salinity response to climate change, the unstructured-grid Finite Volume Community Ocean Model was implemented to simulate the salt intrusion in the Delaware Bay Estuary. The model was first validated by multiple observational data sets and subsequently applied in an idealized setting to examine the response of salt front to freshwater pulses in high flow conditions, followed by a long-term drought condition supported by a multi-decadal streamflow drought analysis in the estuary. The model results showed that after the freshwater pulses the salt front location moved further upstream with sea level rise. Under the simulated long-term drought condition, the adjustment timescale of salt intrusion varies nonlinearly with sea level rise. With a significant increase in sea level rise, the adjustment timescale starts to decrease. This shift suggests a transition into a different regime where the estuary becomes more stratified, as indicated by an increasing bulk Simpson number with rising sea levels. These findings have been summarized into a journal manuscript. The data included in this information release request are FVCOM model output associated with the numerical simulations described in the journal manuscript.

Liu, Jinliang↗

Amplified Extreme Floods and Shifting Flood Mechanisms in the Delaware River Basin in Future Climates

Abstract Historical records in the Delaware River Basin reveal complex and spatially diverse flood generating mechanisms influenced by the region's mountains‐to‐plains gradients. This study focuses on predicting future flood hazards and understanding the underlying drivers of changes across the region. Using a process‐based hydrological model, we analyzed the hydrometeorological condition of each historical and future flood event. For each event, at the subbasin scale, we identified the dominant flood generating mechanism, including snowmelt, rain‐on‐snow, short‐duration rain, and long‐duration rain. The rain‐induced floods are further categorized based on the soil's Antecedent Moisture Condition (AMC) before the event, whether dry, normal, or wet. Our historical analysis suggests that rain‐on‐snow is the primary flood mechanism of the Upper Basin. Although most frequent, the magnitude of rain‐on‐snow floods is often less severe than short rain floods. In contrast, historical floods in the Lower Basin are primarily caused by short rain under normal AMC. Given the uncertainties in climate projections, we used an ensemble of future climate scenarios for flood projections. Despite variations in regional climate projections, coherent perspectives emerge: the region will shift toward a warmer, wetter climate, with a projected intensification of extreme floods. The Upper Basin is projected to experience a marked decrease in rain‐on‐snow floods, but a substantial increase in short rain floods with wet AMC. The largest increase in flood magnitude will be driven by short rains with wet AMC in the Upper Basin and by short rains with normal AMC in the Lower Basin.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗