Modeling the Solar Corona to Study Sources of Space Weather Disturbances
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Engineering topics
Publications and source records attributed to Wray, Alan A..
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Observations as well as numerical and theoretical models show that solar dynamics is characterized by complicated interactions and energy exchanges among different temporal and spatial scales. It reveals magnetic self-organization processes from the smallest scale magnetized vortex tubes to the global activity variation known as the solar cycle. To understand these multiscale processes and their relationships, we use a two-fold approach: 1) realistic 3D radiative MHD simulations of local dynamics together with high resolution observations by IRIS, Hinode, and SDO; and 2) modeling of solar activity cycles by using simplified MHD dynamo models and mathematical data assimilation techniques. We present recent results of this approach, including the interpretation of observational results from NASA heliophysics missions and predictive capabilities. In particular, we discuss the links between small-scale dynamo processes in the convection zone and atmospheric dynamics, as well as an early prediction of Solar Cycle 25.
Understanding the turbulent dynamics of the Sun and stars is a critical element for interpreting observed processes and phenomena on different scales and for predicting extreme events such as flares and super flares. High-‐resolution observations of the Sun and high-‐fidelity radiative MHD numerical simulations have substantially advanced our understanding of solar and stellar local dynamics and magnetism from the upper convection zone to the atmosphere and corona. However, global modeling of the Sun with such a high degree of realism is currently not affordable due to the extremely high computational cost of resolving the scales in the convection zone. The physics of the deep solar dynamics can be effectively addressed through modeling more massive solar-‐type stars where the convection zone is shallower and the convective overturning time is much shorter than those on the Sun. We present recent 3D realistic simulation results of moderate-‐mass stars and discuss links between solar and stellar dynamics, such as the multiscale structure of granulation, convective overshoot, and others. In particular, these simulations have provided better understanding of the dynamics of the tachocline (the overshoot layer at the bottom of the convection zone) and have explained long-‐ standing results from helioseismology.
Simulation of turbulent flows with shocks employing explicit subgrid-scale (SGS) filtering may encounter a loss of accuracy in the vicinity of a shock. In this work we perform a comparative study of different approaches to reduce this loss of accuracy within the framework of the dynamic Germano SGS model. One of the possible approaches is to apply Harten’s subcell resolution procedure to locate and sharpen the shock, and to use a one-sided test filter at the grid points adjacent to the exact shock location. The other considered approach is local disabling of the SGS terms in the vicinity of the shock location. In this study we use a canonical shock-turbulence interaction problem for comparison of the considered modifications of the SGS filtering procedure. For the considered test case both approaches show a similar improvement in the accuracy near the shock.
The Sun lies at the center of space weather and is the source of its variability. The primary input to coronal and solar wind models is the activity of the magnetic field in the solar photosphere. Recent advancements in solar observations and numerical simulations provide a basis for developing physics-based models for the dynamics of the magnetic field from the deep convection zone of the Sun to the corona with the goal of providing robust near real-time boundary conditions at the base of space weather forecast models. The goal is to develop new strategic capabilities that enable characterization and prediction of the magnetic field structure and flow dynamics of the Sun by assimilating data from helioseismology and magnetic field observations into physics-based realistic magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) simulations. The integration of first-principle modeling of solar magnetism and flow dynamics with real-time observational data via advanced data assimilation methods is a new, transformative step in space weather research and prediction. This approach will substantially enhance an existing model of magnetic flux distribution and transport developed by the Air Force Research Lab. The development plan is to use the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) to develop Coupled Models for Emerging flux Simulations (CMES) that couples three existing models: (1) an MHD formulation with the anelastic approximation to simulate the deep convection zone (FSAM code), (2) an MHD formulation with full compressible Navier-Stokes equations and a detailed description of radiative transfer and thermodynamics to simulate near-surface convection and the photosphere (Stagger code), and (3) an MHD formulation with full, compressible Navier-Stokes equations and an approximate description of radiative transfer and heating to simulate the corona (Module in BATS-R-US). CMES will enable simulations of the emergence of magnetic structures from the deep convection zone to the corona. Finally, a plan will be summarized on the development of a Flux Emergence Prediction Tool (FEPT) in which helioseismology-derived data and vector magnetic maps are assimilated into CMES that couples the dynamics of magnetic flux from the deep interior to the corona.
A database for efficiently computing the electron Stark broadening line widths for atomic N, O, and C lines is constructed. The line width is expressed in terms of the electron number density and electronatom scattering cross sections based on the Baranger impact theory. The state-to-state cross sections are computed using the semiclassical approximation, in which the atom is treated quantum mechanically whereas the motion of the free electron follows a classical trajectory. These state-to-state cross sections are calculated based on newly compiled line lists. Each atomic line list consists of a careful merger of NIST, Vanderbilt, and TOPbase line datasets from wavelength 50 nm to 50 micrometers covering the VUV to IR spectral regions. There are over 10,000 lines in each atomic line list. The widths for each line are computed at 13 electron temperatures between 1,000 K 50,000 K. A linear least squares method using a four-term fractional power series is then employed to obtain an analytical fit for each line-width variation as a function of the electron temperature. The maximum L2 error of the analytic fits for all lines in our line lists is about 5%.
Various alternative formulations of the LES equations have been explored in which additional evolution equations for variables such as the acceleration, the subgrid-scale stress tensor, or the subgrid-scale force are explicitly carried. Statistics of the velocity field obtained from the equation for the acceleration are shown to depend strongly on the initial conditions. This feature, which is independent of LES modeling issues, seems to prove that the velocity-acceleration formulation of the Navier-Stokes is not useful for numerical simulation. Equations for the subgrid-scale quantities appear to be much more stable. However, models required by this formulation of the LES problem still require additional study.
A statistical ensemble of large eddy simulations (LES) is run simultaneously for the same flow. The information provided by the different large scale velocity fields is used to propose an ensemble averaged version of the dynamic model. This produces local model parameters that only depend on the statistical properties of the flow. An important property of the ensemble averaged dynamic procedure is that it does not require any spatial averaging and can thus be used in fully inhomogeneous flows. Also, the ensemble of LES's provides statistics of the large scale velocity that can be used for building new models for the subgrid-scale stress tensor. The ensemble averaged dynamic procedure has been implemented with various models for three flows: decaying isotropic turbulence, forced isotropic turbulence, and the time developing plane wake. It is found that the results are almost independent of the number of LES's in the statistical ensemble provided that the ensemble contains at least 16 realizations.
An explicit time filter is applied to the Navier-Stokes equation prior to a space filter. The time filter is supposed to be smooth, and an exact expansion depending on the time derivatives of the velocity is derived for the associated stress tensor. On the contrary, the effect of the space filter is treated as usual and an eddy viscosity model is introduced in the LES equation. The total stress is thus represented using a new class of mixed models combining time and space derivatives of the LES field.