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Wofsy, Steven C.

Publications and source records attributed to Wofsy, Steven C..

At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Sensitive Response of Atmospheric Oxidative Capacity to the Uncertainty in the Emissions of Nitric Oxide (NO) From Soils in Amazonia

Abstract Soils are a major source of nitrogen oxides, which in the atmosphere help govern its oxidative capacity. Thus the response of soil nitric oxide (NO) emissions to forcings such as warming or forest loss has a meaningful impact on global atmospheric chemistry. We find that the soil emission rate of NO in Amazonia from a common inventory is biased low by at least an order of magnitude in comparison to tower‐based observations. Accounting for this regional bias decreases the modeled global methane lifetime by 1.4%–2.6%. In comparison, a fully deforested Amazonia, representing a 37% decrease in global emissions of isoprene, decreases methane lifetime by at most 4.6%, highlighting the sensitive response of oxidation rates to changes in emissions of NO compared to those of terpenes. Our results demonstrate that improving our understanding of soil NO emissions will yield a more accurate representation of atmospheric oxidative capacity.

Geology↗
DOE OSTI2023

Asymmetric response of Amazon forest water and energy fluxes to wet and dry hydrological extremes reveals onset of a local drought-induced tipping point

Understanding the effects of intensification of Amazon basin hydrological cycling—manifest as increasingly frequent floods and droughts—on water and energy cycles of tropical forests is essential to meeting the challenge of predicting ecosystem responses to climate change, including forest “tipping points”. Here, we investigated the impacts of hydrological extremes on forest function using 12+ years of observations (between 2001–2020) of water and energy fluxes from eddy covariance, along with associated ecological dynamics from biometry, at the Tapajós National Forest. Measurements encompass the strong 2015–2016 El Niño drought and La Niña 2008–2009 wet events. We found that the forest responded strongly to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO): Drought reduced water availability for evapotranspiration ( ET ) leading to large increases in sensible heat fluxes ( H ). Partitioning ET by an approach that assumes transpiration ( T ) is proportional to photosynthesis, we found that water stress-induced reductions in canopy conductance ( G s ) drove T declines partly compensated by higher evaporation ( E ). By contrast, the abnormally wet La Niña period gave higher T and lower E , with little change in seasonal ET . Both El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events resulted in changes in forest structure, manifested as lower wet-season leaf area index. However, only during El Niño 2015–2016, we observed a breakdown in the strong meteorological control of transpiration fluxes (via energy availability and atmospheric demand) because of slowing vegetation functions (via shutdown of G s and significant leaf shedding). Drought-reduced T and G s , higher H and E , amplified by feedbacks with higher temperatures and vapor pressure deficits, signaled that forest function had crossed a threshold, from which it recovered slowly, with delay, post-drought. In conclusion, identifying such tipping point onsets (beyond which future irreversible processes may occur) at local scale is crucial for predicting basin-scale threshold-crossing changes in forest energy and water cycling, leading to slow-down in forest function, potentially resulting in Amazon forests shifting into alternate degraded states.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Earlier snowmelt may lead to late season declines in plant productivity and carbon sequestration in Arctic tundra ecosystems

Arctic warming is affecting snow cover and soil hydrology, with consequences for carbon sequestration in tundra ecosystems. The scarcity of observations in the Arctic has limited our understanding of the impact of covarying environmental drivers on the carbon balance of tundra ecosystems. In this study, we address some of these uncertainties through a novel record of 119 site-years of summer data from eddy covariance towers representing dominant tundra vegetation types located on continuous permafrost in the Arctic. Here we found that earlier snowmelt was associated with more tundra net CO 2 sequestration and higher gross primary productivity (GPP) only in June and July, but with lower net carbon sequestration and lower GPP in August. Although higher evapotranspiration (ET) can result in soil drying with the progression of the summer, we did not find significantly lower soil moisture with earlier snowmelt, nor evidence that water stress affected GPP in the late growing season. Our results suggest that the expected increased CO 2 sequestration arising from Arctic warming and the associated increase in growing season length may not materialize if tundra ecosystems are not able to continue sequestering CO 2 later in the season.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Carbon budget of the Harvard Forest Long-Term Ecological Research site: pattern, process, and response to global change

How, where, and why carbon (C) moves into and out of an ecosystem through time are long-standing questions in biogeochemistry. Here, we bring together hundreds of thousands of C-cycle observations at the Harvard Forest in central Massachusetts, USA, a mid-latitude landscape dominated by 80–120-yr-old closed-canopy forests. These data answered four questions: (1) where and how much C is presently stored in dominant forest types; (2) what are current rates of C accrual and loss; (3) what biotic and abiotic factors contribute to variability in these rates; and (4) how has climate change affected the forest’s C cycle? Harvard Forest is an active C sink resulting from forest regrowth following land abandonment. Soil and tree biomass comprise nearly equal portions of existing C stocks. Net primary production (NPP) averaged 680–750 g C·m –2 ·yr –1 ; belowground NPP contributed 38–47% of the total, but with large uncertainty. Mineral soil C measured in the same inventory plots in 1992 and 2013 was too heterogeneous to detect change in soil-C pools; however, radiocarbon data suggest a small but persistent sink of 10–30 g C·m –2 ·yr –1 . Net ecosystem production (NEP) in hardwood stands averaged ~300 g C·m –2 ·yr –1 . NEP in hemlock-dominated forests averaged ~450 g C·m –2 ·yr –1 until infestation by the hemlock woolly adelgid turned these stands into a net C source. Since 2000, NPP has increased by 26%. For the period 1992–2015, NEP increased 93%. The increase in mean annual temperature and growing season length alone accounted for ~30% of the increase in productivity. Interannual variations in GPP and NEP were also correlated with increases in red oak biomass, forest leaf area, and canopy-scale light-use efficiency. Compared to long-term global change experiments at the Harvard Forest, the C sink in regrowing biomass equaled or exceeded C cycle modifications imposed by soil warming, N saturation, and hemlock removal. Furthermore, the results of this synthesis and comparison to simulation models suggest that forests across the region are likely to accrue C for decades to come but may be disrupted if the frequency or severity of biotic and abiotic disturbances increases.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Listening to the Forest: An Artificial Neural Network‐Based Model of Carbon Uptake at Harvard Forest

Abstract The terrestrial biosphere strongly modulates atmospheric CO 2 mixing ratios, whose inexorable rise propels anthropogenic climate change. Modeling and mechanistically understanding C uptake by the terrestrial biosphere are thus of broad societal concerns. Yet despite considerable progress, scaling up point observations to landscape and larger scales continues to frustrate analyses of the anthropogenically perturbed global C cycle. While that up‐scaling is our overarching motivation, here we focus on one of its elements, modeling C uptake at a given site. We devise a novel artificial neural network (ANN)‐based model of C uptake at Harvard Forest that combines locally observed and remotely sensed variables. Most of our model predictors are those used by an established ecosystem C uptake model, the Vegetation Photosynthesis and Respiration Model (VPRM), easing comparisons. To those, we add observed cumulative antecedent precipitation and soil temperature. We find that model errors are much larger in winter, indicating that better understanding and modeling of respiration will likely discernibly improve model performance. Comparing the ANN and VPRM results reveals errors attributed to unrealistic treatment of temperature in the VPRM formulation, indicating that better representation of temperature dependencies is also likely to enhance model skill. By judiciously comparing VPRM and ANN errors we thus overcome ANNs' notoriety for concealing the mechanisms underlying their predictive skills. We demonstrate their ability to identify outstanding ecosystem science knowledge gaps and particularly fruitful corresponding model development directions, improving site specific and up‐scaling flux modeling and understanding of the climate impacts of the northern forest.

Eshel, Gidon↗
DOE OSTI2018

Carbon exchange in an Amazon forest: from hours to years

Abstract. In Amazon forests, the relative contributions of climate, phenology, and disturbance to net ecosystem exchange of carbon (NEE) are not well understood. To partition influences across various timescales, we use a statistical model to represent eddy-covariance-derived NEE in an evergreen eastern Amazon forest as a constant response to changing meteorology and phenology throughout a decade. Our best fit model represented hourly NEE variations as changes due to sunlight, while seasonal variations arose from phenology influencing photosynthesis and from rainfall influencing ecosystem respiration, where phenology was asynchronous with dry-season onset. We compared annual model residuals with biometric forest surveys to estimate impacts of drought disturbance. We found that our simple model represented hourly and monthly variations in NEE well ( R 2 = 0.81 and 0.59, respectively). Modeled phenology explained 1 % of hourly and 26 % of monthly variations in observed NEE, whereas the remaining modeled variability was due to changes in meteorology. We did not find evidence to support the common assumption that the forest phenology was seasonally light- or water-triggered. Our model simulated annual NEE well, with the exception of 2002, the first year of our data record, which contained 1.2 MgC ha −1 of residual net emissions, because photosynthesis was anomalously low. Because a severe drought occurred in 1998, we hypothesized that this drought caused a persistent, multi-year depression of photosynthesis. Our results suggest drought can have lasting impacts on photosynthesis, possibly via partial damage to still-living trees.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Ecosystem heterogeneity and diversity mitigate Amazon forest resilience to frequent extreme droughts

The impact of increases in drought frequency on the Amazon forest's composition, structure and functioning remain uncertain. We used a process- and individual-based ecosystem model (ED2) to quantify the forest's vulnerability to increased drought recurrence. We generated meteorologically realistic, drier-than-observed rainfall scenarios for two Amazon forest sites, Paracou (wetter) and Tapajós (drier), to evaluate the impacts of more frequent droughts on forest biomass, structure and composition. The wet site was insensitive to the tested scenarios, whereas at the dry site biomass declined when average rainfall reduction exceeded 15%, due to high mortality of large-sized evergreen trees. Biomass losses persisted when year-long drought recurrence was shorter than 2–7 yr, depending upon soil texture and leaf phenology. From the site-level scenario results, we developed regionally applicable metrics to quantify the Amazon forest's climatological proximity to rainfall regimes likely to cause biomass loss >20% in 50 yr according to ED2 predictions. Nearly 25% (1.8 million km 2 ) of the Amazon forests could experience frequent droughts and biomass loss if mean annual rainfall or interannual variability changed by 2σ. At least 10% of the high-emission climate projections (CMIP5/RCP8.5 models) predict critically dry regimes over 25% of the Amazon forest area by 2100.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Dynamics of canopy stomatal conductance, transpiration, and evaporation in a temperate deciduous forest, validated by carbonyl sulfide uptake

Abstract. Stomatal conductance influences both photosynthesis and transpiration, thereby coupling the carbon and water cycles and affecting surface–atmosphere energy exchange. The environmental response of stomatal conductance has been measured mainly on the leaf scale, and theoretical canopy models are relied on to upscale stomatal conductance for application in terrestrial ecosystem models and climate prediction. Here we estimate stomatal conductance and associated transpiration in a temperate deciduous forest directly on the canopy scale via two independent approaches: (i) from heat and water vapor exchange and (ii) from carbonyl sulfide (OCS) uptake. We use the eddy covariance method to measure the net ecosystem–atmosphere exchange of OCS, and we use a flux-gradient approach to separate canopy OCS uptake from soil OCS uptake. We find that the seasonal and diurnal patterns of canopy stomatal conductance obtained by the two approaches agree (to within ±6 % diurnally), validating both methods. Canopy stomatal conductance increases linearly with above-canopy light intensity (in contrast to the leaf scale, where stomatal conductance shows declining marginal increases) and otherwise depends only on the diffuse light fraction, the canopy-average leaf-to-air water vapor gradient, and the total leaf area. Based on stomatal conductance, we partition evapotranspiration (ET) and find that evaporation increases from 0 to 40 % of ET as the growing season progresses, driven primarily by rising soil temperature and secondarily by rainfall. Counterintuitively, evaporation peaks at the time of year when the soil is dry and the air is moist. Our method of ET partitioning avoids concerns about mismatched scales or measurement types because both ET and transpiration are derived from eddy covariance data. Neither of the two ecosystem models tested predicts the observed dynamics of evaporation or transpiration, indicating that ET partitioning such as that provided here is needed to further model development and improve our understanding of carbon and water cycling.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Fluxes of CO 2 , CH 4 , CO, BVOCs, NOx, and O 3 in an Old Growth Amazonian Forest: Ecosystem Processes, Carbon Cycle, Atmospheric Chemistry, and Feedbacks on Climate

A comprehensive, merged data set of trace gases (NO, NO 2 , CO 2 , CH 4 and O 3 ) along with has been tabulated and subjected to meticulous quality assurance and quality control (QA/QC). The merged data set is being submitted to the ARM website dedicated to the Green Ocean Experiment: https://www.arm.gov/research/campaigns/amf2014goamazon Analysis using the final data set is in progress to determine the magnitudes of the fluxes for CH 4 , H 2 O, CO 2 , O 3 , NO x , sensible and latent heat, momentum, and their seasonal variations. Here are summary statements, from the discussion above: Total NO fluxes were calculated following Keller et al., 1986. A vertical gradient is established in the mixing ratio of NO because it is emitted at the soil surface and mixed upward in the atmosphere (see above). Once in the atmosphere, the NO reacts rapidly with O 3 to produce NO 2 (NO + O 3 → NO 2 + O 2 ). Therefore, if the vertical profiles of the mixing ratios of NO and O 3 are known, the surface flux of NO may be determined. If any other reaction removes NO (e.g., deposition on leaves), FNO should estimate the lower limit to the NO flux from the soil in this forest. Our preliminary results show fluxes of NO averaged 133 x 10 9 molecules cm -2 s -1 , a factor of 4 higher than fluxes previously observed in white sand soils in the Amazon, and a factor of 3 to 14 higher than fluxes observed for yellow clay soils (Bakwin et al., 1990 and references therein). The soil in the km 67 site is predominately oxisol with pockets of sandy ultisols, both having low reduced nutrient contents, mostly due to efficient microorganism decomposition and acid leaching by rain water. Oxisols contain both oxidized and reduced forms of nitrogen, of which concentrations vary independently of leaching (Jordan et al., 1982), with most part of the cycling processes occurring in the top layers. Methane fluxes showed no statistical difference between 2015 wet and dry seasons, and the forest at this site appear to be a methane sink throughout the year. The vertical profiles suggest that if a methane source exists in this forest, it might be in the canopy. Next steps include modeling and analysis using the Master Chemical Mechanism (Jenkin et al., 1997; Saunders et al., 2003 (A/B); http://mcm.leeds.ac.uk/MCM/) and the Ecosystem Demography-2 (ED-2) model. A final manuscript with the results from this work is in preparation and expected to be submitted for publication within the next several months. Publications to date are listed below.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2016

Ecosystem fluxes of hydrogen in a mid-latitude forest driven by soil microorganisms and plants

Molecular hydrogen (H 2 ) is an atmospheric trace gas with a large microbe-mediated soil sink, yet cycling of this compound throughout ecosystems is poorly understood. Measurements of the sources and sinks of H 2 in various ecosystems are sparse, resulting in large uncertainties in the global H 2 budget. Constraining the H 2 cycle is critical to understanding its role in atmospheric chemistry and climate. We measured H 2 fluxes at high frequency in a temperate mixed deciduous forest for 15 months using a tower-based flux-gradient approach to determine both the soil-atmosphere and the net ecosystem flux of H 2 . We also found that Harvard Forest is a net H 2 sink (-1.4 ± 1.1 kg H 2 ha -1 ) with soils as the dominant H 2 sink (-2.0 ± 1.0 kg H 2 ha -1 ) and aboveground canopy emissions as the dominant H 2 source (+0.6 ± 0.8 kg H 2 ha -1 ). Aboveground emissions of H 2 were an unexpected and substantial component of the ecosystem H 2 flux, reducing net ecosystem uptake by 30% of that calculated from soil uptake alone. Soil uptake was highly seasonal (July maximum, February minimum), positively correlated with soil temperature and negatively correlated with environmental variables relevant to diffusion into soils (i.e., soil moisture, snow depth, snow density). Soil microbial H 2 uptake was correlated with rhizosphere respiration rates (r = 0.8, P < 0.001), and H 2 metabolism yielded up to 2% of the energy gleaned by microbes from carbon substrate respiration. Here, we elucidate key processes controlling the biosphere–atmosphere exchange of H 2 and raise new questions regarding the role of aboveground biomass as a source of atmospheric H 2 and mechanisms linking soil H 2 and carbon cycling. Our results should be incorporated into modeling efforts to predict the response of the H 2 soil sink to changes in anthropogenic H 2 emissions and shifting soil conditions with climate and land-use change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

A multi-scale comparison of modeled and observed seasonal methane emissions in northern wetlands

Wetlands are the largest global natural methane (CH 4 ) source, and emissions between 50 and 70° N latitude contribute 10-30 % to this source. Predictive capability of land models for northern wetland CH 4 emissions is still low due to limited site measurements, strong spatial and temporal variability in emissions, and complex hydrological and biogeochemical dynamics. To explore this issue, we compare wetland CH 4 emission predictions from the Community Land Model 4.5 (CLM4.5-BGC) with site- to regional-scale observations. A comparison of the CH 4 fluxes with eddy flux data highlighted needed changes to the model's estimate of aerenchyma area, which we implemented and tested. The model modification substantially reduced biases in CH 4 emissions when compared with CarbonTracker CH 4 predictions. CLM4.5 CH 4 emission predictions agree well with growing season (May–September) CarbonTracker Alaskan regional-level CH 4 predictions and site-level observations. However, CLM4.5 underestimated CH 4 emissions in the cold season (October–April). The monthly atmospheric CH 4 mole fraction enhancements due to wetland emissions are also assessed using the Weather Research and Forecasting-Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport (WRF-STILT) model coupled with daily emissions from CLM4.5 and compared with aircraft CH 4 mole fraction measurements from the Carbon in Arctic Reservoirs Vulnerability Experiment (CARVE) campaign. Both the tower and aircraft analyses confirm the underestimate of cold-season CH 4 emissions by CLM4.5. The greatest uncertainties in predicting the seasonal CH 4 cycle are from the wetland extent, cold-season CH 4 production and CH 4 transport processes. We recommend more cold-season experimental studies in high-latitude systems, which could improve the understanding and parameterization of ecosystem structure and function during this period. Predicted CH 4 emissions remain uncertain, but we show here that benchmarking against observations across spatial scales can inform model structural and parameter improvements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Assessment of errors and biases in retrievals of XCO2, XCH4, XCO, and XN2O from a 0.5 cm–1 resolution solar-viewing spectrometer

Abstract. Bruker™ EM27/SUN instruments are commercial mobile solar-viewing near-IR spectrometers. They show promise for expanding the global density of atmospheric column measurements of greenhouse gases and are being marketed for such applications. They have been shown to measure the same variations of atmospheric gases within a day as the high-resolution spectrometers of the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON). However, there is little known about the long-term precision and uncertainty budgets of EM27/SUN measurements. In this study, which includes a comparison of 186 measurement days spanning 11 months, we note that atmospheric variations of Xgas within a single day are well captured by these low-resolution instruments, but over several months, the measurements drift noticeably. We present comparisons between EM27/SUN instruments and the TCCON using GGG as the retrieval algorithm. In addition, we perform several tests to evaluate the robustness of the performance and determine the largest sources of errors from these spectrometers. We include comparisons of XCO2, XCH4, XCO, and XN2O. Specifically we note EM27/SUN biases for January 2015 of 0.03, 0.75, –0.12, and 2.43 % for XCO2, XCH4, XCO, and XN2O respectively, with 1σ running precisions of 0.08 and 0.06 % for XCO2 and XCH4 from measurements in Pasadena. We also identify significant error caused by nonlinear sensitivity when using an extended spectral range detector used to measure CO and N2O.

Hedelius, Jacob K. (ORCID:0000000320257519)↗
DOE OSTI2016

Detecting regional patterns of changing CO 2 flux in Alaska

Significance Dramatic warming in northern high latitudes has led to increased photosynthetic carbon uptake during the short, intense growing season; however, microbial decomposition of soil carbon and increased emissions during the long cold season may offset summer uptake and impart a positive feedback on the global climate system. We show that current airborne and satellite measurements of atmospheric CO 2 can accurately quantify summer uptake but are insufficient to detect regional changes in cold season emissions. As the potential for Arctic carbon budgets to become impacted by permafrost thaw and cold season emissions increases, strategies focused on year-round vertical profiles and improved spatial sampling will be needed to track carbon balance changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

The terrestrial biosphere as a net source of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere

The terrestrial biosphere can release or absorb the greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH 4 ) and nitrous oxide (N 2 O), and therefore has an important role in regulating atmospheric composition and climate 1 . Anthropogenic activities such as land-use change, agriculture and waste management have altered terrestrial biogenic greenhouse gas fluxes, and the resulting increases in methane and nitrous oxide emissions in particular can contribute to climate change 2, 3 . The terrestrial biogenic fluxes of individual greenhouse gases have been studied extensively 4, 5, 6 , but the net biogenic greenhouse gas balance resulting from anthropogenic activities and its effect on the climate system remains uncertain. Here we use bottom-up (inventory, statistical extrapolation of local flux measurements, and process-based modelling) and top-down (atmospheric inversions) approaches to quantify the global net biogenic greenhouse gas balance between 1981 and 2010 resulting from anthropogenic activities and its effect on the climate system. We find that the cumulative warming capacity of concurrent biogenic methane and nitrous oxide emissions is a factor of about two larger than the cooling effect resulting from the global land carbon dioxide uptake from 2001 to 2010. This results in a net positive cumulative impact of the three greenhouse gases on the planetary energy budget, with a best estimate (in petagrams of CO 2 equivalent per year) of 3.9 ± 3.8 (top down) and 5.4 ± 4.8 (bottom up) based on the GWP100 metric (global warming potential on a 100-year time horizon). Lastly, our findings suggest that a reduction in agricultural methane and nitrous oxide emissions, particularly in Southern Asia, may help mitigate climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Seasonal fluxes of carbonyl sulfide in a midlatitude forest

Significance The flux of carbonyl sulfide (OCS) provides a quantitative, independent measure of biospheric activity, especially stomatal conductance and carbon uptake, at the ecosystem scale. We describe the factors controlling the hourly, daily, and seasonal fluxes of OCS based on 1 year of observations in a forest ecosystem. Vegetation dominated uptake of OCS, with daytime fluxes accounting for 72% of the total uptake for the year. Nighttime fluxes had contributions from both incompletely closed stomata and soils. Net OCS emission was observed at high temperature in summer. Diurnal and seasonal variations in OCS flux show variable stoichiometry relative to photosynthetic uptake of CO 2 . An effective model framework is shown, using an explicit representation of ecosystem processing of OCS.

Commane, Róisín↗
DOE OSTI2014

North American terrestrial CO 2 uptake largely offset by CH 4 and N 2 O emissions: toward a full accounting of the greenhouse gas budget

The terrestrial ecosystems of North America have been identified as a sink of atmospheric CO 2 though there is no consensus on the magnitude. However, the emissions of non-CO 2 greenhouse gases (CH 4 and N 2 O) may offset or even overturn the climate cooling effect induced by the CO 2 sink. Using a coupled biogeochemical model, in this study, we have estimated the combined global warming potentials (GWP) of CO 2 , CH 4 and N 2 O fluxes in North American terrestrial ecosystems and quantified the relative contributions of environmental factors to the GWP changes during 1979–2010. The uncertainty range for contemporary global warming potential has been quantified by synthesizing the existing estimates from inventory, forward modeling, and inverse modeling approaches. Our “best estimate” of net GWP for CO 2 , CH 4 and N 2 O fluxes was₋0.50 ± 0.27 Pg CO 2 eq/year (1 Pg=1015 g) in North American terrestrial ecosystems during 2001–2010. The emissions of CH 4 and N 2 O from terrestrial ecosystems had offset about two thirds (73% ± 14%) of the land CO 2 sink in the North American continent, showing large differences across the three countries, with offset ratios of 57% ± 8% in US, 83% ± 17 % in Canada and 329% ± 119 % in Mexico. Climate change and elevated tropospheric ozone concentration have contributed the most to GWP increase, while elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentration have contributed the most to GWP reduction. Extreme drought events over certain periods could result in a positive GWP. By integrating the existing estimates, we have found a wide range of uncertainty for the combined GWP. In conclusion, from both climate change science and policy perspectives, it is necessary to integrate ground and satellite observations with models for a more accurate accounting of these three greenhouse gases in North America.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗