AI/ML Forecasting of Offshore Platform Integrity to Improve Safety and Reliability
Machine Learning in Oil and Gas 2021 Conference, April 15, 2021
Engineering topics
Publications and source records attributed to Wingo, Patrick.
Machine Learning in Oil and Gas 2021 Conference, April 15, 2021
BSEE Meeting, Virtual, March 22, 2021
AGU Fall Meeting 2020 (Conference), Virtual, December 1- 17, 2020
AGU Fall Meeting 2020 (Conference), Virtual, December 1- 17, 2020.
Presented by LRST at the Machine Learning in Oil and Gas Conference, 11/9
Machine Learning in Oil and Gas Conference, Virtual, November 9-11, 2020
Project Objective Execute intelligent analytics via an advanced analytical framework, to assess the current state of offshore infrastructure, evaluate infrastructure life, and identify technologies to reduce infrastructure hazards, costs, and extend infrastructure life. Approach & Results thus Far• Build comprehensive dataset• Perform data-driven analytics to evaluate infrastructure integrity<p> 1. Remaining lifespan</p><p> 2. Likelihood of future risk</p><p>• Apply data-driven advanced spatial, statistical, and Machine Learning (ML) models to quantify existing infrastructure integrity</p><p>• Release data and models through a smart, online platform hosted by Energy Data eXchange (EDX)</p>
<strong>Research Problem: </strong>Changes in the ocean environment (i.e., mudslides or burial from subsea currents, strong weather events or natural fluctuations) have been linked to <strong>billions of dollars of impacts</strong>. These events can have a significant effect on the <strong>success and longevity </strong>of offshore infrastructure, as well as affect <strong>safety and cost </strong>during exploration and production activities.<strong>Research Approach: (1) </strong>Determine current state of knowledge regarding hazardous metocean and bathymetric conditions, and data availability regarding these conditions and historic events. (2) EY19 -Evaluate if Ml/AI model can be developed to better identify current hazardous metocean and bathymetric conditions. (3) EY 20 + -develop, train, and test ML/AI model to identify current conditions and forecast changes and vulnerability that may impact offshore infrastructure and operations. <strong>Benefit: </strong>Improved characterization of seabed related hazards in the offshore environment will help to manage and minimize costs and risks during drilling and production operations, and help prevent catastrophic incidents.
Presented by LRST at the Offshore Project Review Meeting, 10/26
Presented by LRST at GIS Week, 10/6
Presented by LRST at the NETL Carbon Storage Project Review Meeting, 9/11
Presented by LRST at the NETL Carbon Storage Project Review Meeting, 9/10
The scope of this project is to advance the National Energy Technology Laboratory’s (NETL) Variable Grid Method (VGM) technology to commercial status thought enhancements upon prior work to produce a VGM application that can rapidly quantify multiple types of data and uncertainty commonly encountered by the subsurface energy industry. Along with development, the project will also include technology demonstrations, through applications using common industry data types and uncertainty metrics, to stress the value the VGM can offer the subsurface energy industry by providing an improved understanding of the strengths and limitations of their data, models, and analytical results. The resulting commercially ready VGM will offer interoperability with common industry software applications to ensure broad ‘plug and play’ functionality that will help keep costs relatively low and foster more rapid industry adoption.
Presented by LRST at the ESRI User Virtual Conference, July 13-15, 2020, 7/13
NETL’s Variable Grid Method (VGM) is a novel approach that leverages GIS capabilities to simultaneously visualize and quantify spatial data trends and underlying data uncertainty. The flexible VGM approach utilizes a range of spatial datasets and uncertainty quantifications, which can be calculated using data related to sample density, sample variance, interpolation error, multiple simulations, etc., to create an integrated visualization of data and uncertainty. The intuitive manner of the VGM helps communicate the relationship between uncertainty and spatial data to effectively guide research, support advanced computation analyses, and helps inform research, management and policy decisions. The VGM approach is being developed into a standalone tool designed to integrate into a variety of research workflows, providing users the capabilities to utilize the VGM for their datasets, analysis, and models in support of their decision making needs. The VGM approach was developed as part of NETL’s Offshore portfolio. It was further matured and utilized in projects associated with both NETL’s Unconventional Resources and Carbon Storage portfolios, and is now being further developed by Varigrid, LLC.
Presented by NETL at AGU Ocean Sciences Meeting, 02/20
SIMPA (Spatially Integrated Multivariate Probabilistic Assessment) is a Python-based fuzzy logic tool designed to help assess the likelihood of fluid and/or gas migration pathways throughout the subsurface. The SIMPA tool helps users develop and apply fuzzy logic to various datasets to construct knowledge-based inferential rules that reduce uncertainty and results in a visual representation depicting the likelihood of potential fluid and/or gas migration pathways. SIMPA results can offers an understanding of the magnitude and extent of natural and anthropogenic subsurface pathways, offering insight to subsurface hazards to improve storage assessments and critical information for improving industry decisions related to the use of various CCS methods and technologies. In addition, SIMPA can offer new insights for areas with little to no data to help inform site selection and production, evaluate potential risks and hazards, and support various decision making and risk management needs.
As the energy industry continues to invest in data, big data, and advanced analytics to improve production, reduce operation and maintenance costs, improve safety, and reduce risks, uncertainty will serve as a limiting factor in the success of these operations. Intuitive communication of uncertainty can provide more transparency in the decision-making process; offering the ability to more accurately evaluate the risk and impact of decisions, identify data and knowledge gaps, and evaluate trade-offs. The issue of uncertainty will thus play a large role in the success of investments that rely on big data and data analytics. However, no robust method for representation of uncertainty in spatial data visuals currently exists. As such, uncertainty is, at best, communicated using multiple independent visuals and aggregated in final displays, or frequently omitted altogether. Failure to accurately and effectively quantify and communicate uncertainty poses a barrier, limiting critical information that would better allow businesses to make more accurate and intelligent decisions.