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Williams, Paul T.

Publications and source records attributed to Williams, Paul T..

At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Quantile-specific heritability of plasma fibrinogen concentrations

Fibrinogen is a moderately heritable blood protein showing different genetic effects by sex, race, smoking status, pollution exposure, and disease status. These interactions may be explained in part by “quantile-dependent expressivity”, where the effect size of a genetic variant depends upon whether the phenotype (e.g. plasma fibrinogen concentration) is high or low relative to its distribution. Determine whether fibrinogen heritability (h 2 ) is quantile-specific, and whether quantile-specific h 2 could account for fibrinogen gene-environment interactions. Plasma fibrinogen concentrations from 5689 offspring-parent pairs and 1932 sibships from the Framingham Heart Study were analyzed. Quantile-specific heritability from offspring-parent (β OP , h 2 = 2β OP /(1+r spouse )) and full-sib regression slopes (β FS , h 2 = {(1+8r spouse β FS ) 0.05 –1}/(2r spouse )) were robustly estimated by quantile regression with nonparametric significance assigned from 1000 bootstrap samples. Quantile-specific h 2 (±SE) increased with increasing percentiles of the offspring’s age- and sex-adjusted fibrinogen distribution when estimated from β OP (P trend = 5.5x10 -6 ): 0.30±0.05 at the 10 th , 0.37±0.04 at the 25 th , 0.48±0.05 at the 50 th , 0.61±0.06 at the 75 th , and 0.65±0.08 at the 90 th percentile, and when estimated from β FS (P trend = 0.008): 0.28±0.04 at the 10 th , 0.31±0.04 at the 25 th , 0.36±0.03 at the 50 th , 0.41±0.05 at the 75 th , and 0.50±0.06 at the 90 th percentile. The larger genetic effect at higher average fibrinogen concentrations may contribute to fibrinogen’s greater heritability in women than men and in Blacks than Whites, and greater increase from smoking and air pollution for the FGB -455G>A A-allele. It may also explain greater fibrinogen differences between: 1) FGB -455G>A genotypes during acute phase reactions than usual conditions, 2) GTSM1 and IL-6 -572C>G genotypes in smokers than nonsmokers, 3) FGB -148C>T genotypes in untreated than treated diabetics, and LPL PvuII genotypes in macroalbuminuric than normoalbuminuric patients. Fibrinogen heritability is quantile specific, which may explain or contribute to its gene-environment interactions. The analyses do not disprove the traditional gene-environment interpretations of these examples, rather quantile-dependent expressivity provides an alternative explanation that warrants consideration.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantile-Specific Heritability of Inflammatory and Oxidative Stress Biomarkers Linked to Cardiovascular Disease

Purpose: Heritability (h 2 , the proportion of the phenotypic variance attributable to additive genetic effects) is traditionally assumed to be constant throughout the distribution of the phenotype. However, the heritabilities of circulating C-reactive protein, interleukin-6, plasminogen activator inhibitor type-1 (PAI-1), and monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 (MCP-1) concentrations depend upon whether the phenotype is high or low relative to their distributions (quantile-dependent expressivity), which may account for apparent gene–environment interactions. Whether the heritabilities of other inflammatory biomarkers linked to cardiovascular disease are quantile-dependent remain to be determined. Patients and Methods: Quantile-specific offspring-parent (β OP ) and full-sib regression slopes (β FS ) were estimated by applying quantile regression to the age- and sex-adjusted phenotypes of families surveyed as part of the Framingham Heart Study. Quantile-specific heritabilities were calculated as: h 2 =2β OP /(1+r spouse ) and h 2 ={(1+8r spouse β FS ) 0.5 – 1}/(2r spouse ). Results: Heritability (h 2 ± SE) of lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 (Lp-PLA 2 ) mass concentrations increased from 0.11 ± 0.03 at the 10 th percentile, 0.08 ± 0.03 at the 25 th , 0.12 ± 0.03 at the 50 th , 0.20 ± 0.04 at the 75 th , and 0.26 ± 0.06 at the 90 th percentile, or 0.0023 ± 0.0006 per each one-percent increase in the phenotype distribution (P linear trend = 0.0004). Similarly, h 2 increased 0.0029 ± 0.0011 (P linear trend = 0.01) for sP-selectin, 0.0032 ± 0.0009 (P linear trend = 0.0001) for soluble intercellular adhesion molecule 1 (sICAM-1), and 0.0026 ± 0.0006 for tumor necrosis factor receptor 2 (TNFR2) (P linear trend = 5.0 × 10 -6 ) per each one-percent increase in their distributions when estimated from β OP . Osteoprotegerin and soluble ST2 heritability also increased significantly with increasing percentiles of their distributions when estimated from β FS . Lp-PLA 2 activity, CD40 ligand, TNFα, interleukin-18, and myeloperoxidase heritability showed no significant quantile-dependence. Conclusion: The heritabilities of circulating Lp-PLA 2 -mass, sP-selectin, sICAM-1, TNFR2, osteoprotegerin and soluble ST2 concentrations are quantile-dependent, which may contribute to purported genetic modulations of: 1) sP-selectin’s relationships to venous thrombosis, pulmonary hypertension, type 2 diabetes and atorvastatin treatment; 2) sICAM-I’s relationships to brain abscess and atorvastatin treatment; and 3) Lp-PLA 2 ’s relationships to myocardial infarction and preeclampsia.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantile-Dependent Expressivity of Serum Uric Acid Concentrations

“Quantile-dependent expressivity” occurs when the effect size of a genetic variant depends upon whether the phenotype (e.g., serum uric acid) is high or low relative to its distribution. Analyses were performed to test whether serum uric acid heritability is quantile-specific and whether this could explain some reported gene-environment interactions. Methods. Serum uric acid concentrations were analyzed from 2151 sibships and 12,068 offspring-parent pairs from the Framingham Heart Study. Quantile-specific heritability from offspring-parent regression slopes (β OP , h 2 = 2β OP /(1 + r spouse )) and full-sib regression slopes (β FS ,h 2 = {(1 + 8r spouse β FS ) 0.5 - 1}/(2r spouse ) was robustly estimated by quantile regression with nonparametric significance assigned from 1000 bootstrap samples. Results. Quantile-specific h 2 (±SE) increased with increasing percentiles of the offspring’s sex- and age-adjusted uric acid distribution when estimated from β OP (P trend = 0.001): 0.34 ± 0.03 at the 10th, 0.36 ± 0.03 at the 25th, 0.41 ± 0.03 at the 50th, 0.46 ± 0.04 at the 75th, and 0.49 ± 0.05 at the 90th percentile and when estimated from β FS (P trend = 0.006). This is consistent with the larger genetic effect size of (1) the SLC2A9 rs11722228 polymorphism in gout patients vs. controls, (2) the ABCG2 rs2231142 polymorphism in men vs. women, (3) the SLC2A9 rs13113918 polymorphism in obese patients prior to bariatric surgery vs. two-year postsurgery following 29 kg weight loss, (4) the ABCG2 rs6855911 polymorphism in obese vs. nonobese women, and (5) the LRP2 rs2544390 polymorphism in heavier drinkers vs. abstainers. Quantile-dependent expressivity may also explain the larger genetic effect size of an SLC2A9/PKD2/ABCG2 haplotype for high vs. low intakes of alcohol, chicken, or processed meats. Conclusions. Heritability of serum uric acid concentrations is quantile-specific.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantile-dependent expressivity of serum C-reactive protein concentrations in family sets

“Quantile-dependent expressivity” occurs when the effect size of a genetic variant depends upon whether the phenotype (e.g., C-reactive protein, CRP) is high or low relative to its distribution. We have previously shown that the heritabilities ( h 2 ) of coffee and alcohol consumption, postprandial lipemia, lipoproteins, leptin, adiponectin, adiposity, and pulmonary function are quantile-specific. Whether CRP heritability is quantile-specific is currently unknown. Methods Serum CRP concentrations from 2,036 sibships and 6,144 offspring-parent pairs were analyzed from the Framingham Heart Study. Quantile-specific heritability from full-sib (β FS , h 2 ={(1 + 8r spouse β FS ) 0.5 - 1}/(2r spouse )) and offspring-parent regression slopes (β OP , h 2 = 2β OP /(1 + r spouse )) were estimated robustly by quantile regression with nonparametric significance determined from 1,000 bootstrap samples. Results Quantile-specific h 2 (±SE) increased with increasing percentiles of the offspring’s age- and sex-adjusted CRP distribution when estimated from β OP ( P trend = 0.0004): 0.02 ± 0.01 at the 10th, 0.04 ± 0.01 at the 25th, 0.10 ± 0.02 at the 50th, 0.20 ± 0.05 at the 75th, and 0.33 ± 0.10 at the 90th percentile, and when estimated from β FS ( P trend = 0.0008): 0.03±0.01 at the 10th, 0.06 ± 0.02 at the 25th, 0.14 ± 0.03 at the 50th, 0.24 ± 0.05 at the 75th, and 0.53 ± 0.21 at the 90th percentile. Conclusion Heritability of serum CRP concentration is quantile-specific, which may explain or contribute to the inflated CRP differences between CRP (rs1130864, rs1205, rs1800947, rs2794521, rs3091244), FGB (rs1800787), IL-6 (rs1800795, rs1800796), IL6R (rs8192284), TNF- α (rs1800629) and APOE genotypes following CABG surgery, stroke, TIA, curative esophagectomy, intensive periodontal therapy, or acute exercise; during acute coronary syndrome or Staphylococcus aureus bacteremia; or in patients with chronic rheumatoid arthritis, diabetes, peripheral arterial disease, ankylosing spondylitis, obesity or inflammatory bowel disease or who smoke.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Quantile-specific heritability of sibling leptin concentrations and its implications for gene-environment interactions

“Quantile-dependent expressivity” occurs when the effect size of a genetic variant depends upon whether the phenotype (e.g., leptin) is high or low relative to its distribution. Leptin concentrations are strongly related to adiposity, whose heritability is quantile dependent. Whether inheritance of leptin concentrations is quantile dependent, and whether this explains the greater heritability in women than men in accordance with their greater adiposity, and explains other gene-environment interactions, remains to be determined. Therefore, leptin and leptin receptor concentrations from 3068 siblings in 1133 sibships from the Framingham Heart Study Third Generation Cohort were analyzed. Free leptin index (FLI) was calculated as the ratio of leptin to soluble leptin receptor concentrations. Full-sib (β FS ) regression slopes were robustly estimated by quantile regression with nonparametric significance assigned from 1000 bootstrap samples. The analyses showed β FS increased significantly with increasing percentiles of the offspring’s age- and sex-adjusted leptin distribution (P linear = 0.0001), which was accelerated at the higher concentrations (P quadratic = 0.0003). β FS at the 90th percentile (0.418 ± 0.066) was 4.7-fold greater than at the 10th percentile (0.089 ± 0.032, P difference = 3.6 × 10 –6 ). Consistent with quantile-dependent expressivity, the β FS was greater in female sibs, which was attributable to their higher leptin concentrations. Reported gene-environment interactions involving adiposity and LEP , LEPR , MnSOD , PPARγ , PPARγ2 , and IRS-1 polymorphisms were consistent with quantile-dependent expressivity of leptin concentrations. β FS for leptin receptor concentrations and free leptin index also increased significantly with increasing percentiles of their distributions (P linear = 0.04 and P linear = 8.5 × 10 –6 , respectively). In conclusion, inherited genetic and shared environmental effects on leptin concentrations were quantile dependent, which likely explains male–female differences in heritability and some gene-environment interactions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Quantile-dependent expressivity of plasma adiponectin concentrations may explain its sex-specific heritability, gene-environment interactions, and genotype-specific response to postprandial lipemia

“Quantile-dependent expressivity” occurs when the effect size of a genetic variant depends upon whether the phenotype (e.g. adiponectin) is high or low relative to its distribution. We have previously shown that the heritability ( h 2 ) of adiposity, lipoproteins, postprandial lipemia, pulmonary function, and coffee and alcohol consumption are quantile-specific. Whether adiponectin heritability is quantile specific remains to be determined. Plasma adiponectin concentrations from 4,182 offspring-parent pairs and 1,662 sibships from the Framingham Heart Study were analyzed. Quantile-specific heritability from offspring-parent (β OP , h 2 = 2 β OP /(1 + r spouse )) and full-sib regression slopes ( β FS , h 2 = {(1 + 8r spouse β FS ) 0.05 -1}/(2r spouse )) were robustly estimated by quantile regression with nonparametric significance assigned from 1,000 bootstrap samples. Quantile-specific h 2 (± SE) increased with increasing percentiles of the offspring’s age- and sex-adjusted adiponectin distribution when estimated from β OP ( P trend = 2.2 × 10 -6 ): 0.30 ± 0.03 at the 10th, 0.33 ± 0.04 at the 25th, 0.43 ± 0.04 at the 50th, 0.55 ± 0.05 at the 75th, and 0.57 ± 0.08 at the 90th percentile, and when estimated from β FS (P trend = 7.6 × 10 -7 ): 0.42 ± 0.03 at the 10th, 0.44 ± 0.04 at the 25th, 0.56 ± 0.05 at the 50th, 0.73 ± 0.08 at the 75th, and 0.79 ± 0.11 at the 90th percentile. Consistent with quantile-dependent expressivity, adiponectin’s: (1) heritability was greater in women in accordance with their higher adiponection concentrations; (2) relationships to ADIPOQ polymorphisms were modified by adiposity in accordance with its adiponectin-lowering effect; (3) response to rosiglitazone was predicted by the 45T> G ADIPOQ polymorphism; (4) difference by ADIPOQ haplotypes increased linearly with increasing postprandial adiponectin concentrations. Adiponectin heritability is quantile dependent, which may explain sex-specific heritability, gene-environment and gene-drug interactions, and postprandial response by haplotypes.

Postprandial↗
DOE OSTI2020

Spirometric traits show quantile-dependent heritability, which may contribute to their gene-environment interactions with smoking and pollution

Background: “Quantile-dependent expressivity” refers to a genetic effect that is dependent upon whether the phenotype (e.g., spirometric data) is high or low relative to its population distribution. Forced vital capacity (FVC), forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV 1 ), and the FEV 1 /FVC ratio are moderately heritable spirometric traits. The aim of the analyses is to test whether their heritability (h 2 ) is constant over all quantiles of their distribution. Methods: Quantile regression was applied to the mean age, sex, height and smoking-adjusted spirometric data over multiple visits in 9,993 offspring-parent pairs and 1,930 sibships from the Framingham Heart Study to obtain robust estimates of offspring-parent (β OP ), offspring-midparent (β OM ), and full-sib regression slopes (β FS ). Nonparametric significance levels were obtained from 1,000 bootstrap samples. β OP s were used as simple indicators of quantile-specific heritability (i.e.,h 2 = 2β OP /(1+r spouse ), where r spouse was the correlation between spouses). Results: β OP ± standard error (SE) decreased by 0.0009 ± 0.0003 (P = 0.003) with every one-percent increment in the population distribution of FEV 1 /FVC, i.e., β OP ± SE were: 0.182 ± 0.031, 0.152 ± 0.015; 0.136 ± 0.011; 0.121 ± 0.013; and 0.099 ± 0.013 at the 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, and 90th percentiles of the FEV 1 /FVC distribution, respectively. These correspond to h 2 ± SEs of 0.350 ± 0.060 at the 10th, 0.292 ± 0.029 at the 25th, 0.262 ± 0.020 at the 50th, 0.234 ± 0.025 at the 75th, and 0.191 ± 0.025 at the 90th percentiles of the FEV 1 /FVC ratio. Maximum mid-expiratory flow (MMEF) h 2 ± SEs increased 0.0025 ± 0.0007 (P = 0.0004) with every one-percent increment in its distribution, i.e.: 0.467 ± 0.046, 0.467 ± 0.033, 0.554 ± 0.038, 0.615 ± 0.042, and 0.675 ± 0.060 at the 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, and 90th percentiles of its distribution. This was due to forced expiratory flow at 75% of FVC (FEF75%), whose quantile-specific h 2 increased an average of 0.0042 ± 0.0008 for every one-percent increment in its distribution. It is speculated that previously reported gene-environment interactions may be partially attributable to quantile-specific h 2 , i.e., greater heritability in individuals with lower FEV 1 /FVC due to smoking or airborne particles exposure vs. nonsmoking, unexposed individuals. Conclusion: Heritabilities of FEV 1 /FVC, MMEF, and FEF75% from quantile-regression of offspring-parent and sibling spirometric data suggest their quantile-dependent expressivity.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Gene-environment interactions due to quantile-specific heritability of triglyceride and VLDL concentrations

"Quantile-dependent expressivity" is a dependence of genetic effects on whether the phenotype (e.g., triglycerides) is high or low relative to its distribution in the population. Quantile-specific offspring-parent regression slopes (β OP ) were estimated by quantile regression for 6227 offspring-parent pairs. Quantile-specific heritability (h 2 ), estimated by 2β OP /(1 + $\Gamma$ spouse ), decreased 0.0047 ± 0.0007 (P = 2.9 × 10 -14 ) for each one-percent decrement in fasting triglyceride concentrations, i.e., h 2 ± SE were: 0.428 ± 0.059, 0.230 ± 0.030, 0.111 ± 0.015, 0.050 ± 0.016, and 0.033 ± 0.010 at the 90th, 75th, 50th, 25th, and 10th percentiles of the triglyceride distribution, respectively. Consistent with quantile-dependent expressivity, 11 drug studies report smaller genotype differences at lower (post-treatment) than higher (pre-treatment) triglyceride concentrations. This meant genotype-specific triglyceride changes could not move in parallel when triglycerides were decreased pharmacologically, so that subtracting pre-treatment from post-treatment triglyceride levels necessarily created a greater triglyceride decrease for the genotype with a higher pre-treatment value (purported precision-medicine genetic markers). In addition, sixty-five purported gene-environment interactions were found to be potentially attributable to triglyceride's quantile-dependent expressivity, including gene-adiposity (APOA5, APOB, APOE, GCKR, IRS-1, LPL, MTHFR, PCSK9, PNPLA3, PPARγ2), gene-exercise (APOA1, APOA2, LPL), gene-diet (APOA5, APOE, INSIG2, LPL, MYB, NXPH1, PER2, TNFA), gene-alcohol (ALDH2, APOA5, APOC3, CETP, LPL), gene-smoking (APOC3, CYBA, LPL, USF1), gene-pregnancy (LPL), and gene-insulin resistance interactions (APOE, LPL).

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Quantile-dependent expressivity of postprandial lipemia

“Quantile-dependent expressivity” describes an effect of the genotype that depends upon the level of the phenotype (e.g., whether a subject’s triglycerides are high or low relative to its population distribution). Prior analyses suggest that the effect of a genetic risk score (GRS) on fasting plasma triglyceride levels increases with the percentile of the triglyceride distribution. Postprandial lipemia is well suited for testing quantile-dependent expressivity because it exposes each individual’s genotype to substantial increases in their plasma triglyceride concentrations. Ninety-seven published papers were identified that plotted mean triglyceride response vs. time and genotype, which were converted into quantitative data. Separately, for each published graph, standard least-squares regression analysis was used to compare the genotype differences at time t (dependent variable) to average triglyceride concentrations at time t (independent variable) to assess whether the genetic effect size increased in association with higher triglyceride concentrations and whether the phenomenon could explain purported genetic interactions with sex, diet, disease, BMI, and drugs.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

APPLICATION OF THE FAVOR-OCI FRACTURE MECHANICS COMPUTER PROGRAM TO ASME CODE SECTION XI, IWB-3610 FLAW ACCEPTANCE CRITERIA EVALUATIONS

This paper presents an overview of added features in a new version of the FAVOR (Fracture Analysis of Vessels Oak Ridge) computer code called FAVOR-OCI. The original FAVOR code was developed at the US Department of Energy’s Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) under the sponsorship of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). FAVOR is applied by US and international nuclear power industries to perform deterministic and probabilistic fracture mechanics analyses of commercial nuclear reactor pressure vessels (RPVs). Appli-cations of FAVOR are focused on insuring that the structural integrity of aging, and increasingly embrittled, RPVs is main-tained throughout their licensed service life. Based on the final ORNL release of FAVOR, v16.1, FAVOR-OCI extends existing deterministic features of FAVOR while preserving all prev-iously-existing probabilistic capabilities of FAVOR.The objective of this paper is to describe new deterministic features in FAVOR-OCI that can be applied to analytical evaluations of planar flaws. These evaluations are consistent with the acceptance criteria of ASME Code, Section XI, Article IWB-3610, including Subarticles IWB-3611 (acceptance based on flaw size) and IWB-3612 (acceptance based on applied stress intensity factor). The linear elastic fracture mechanics (LEFM) capabilities of FAVOR-OCI also incorporate the analytical procedures presented in the Nonmandatory Appendix A, Analysis of Flaws, Article A-3000, Method of KI Determination, for both surface and subsurface (embedded) flaws.The paper describes a computational methodology for determining critical values of fracture-related parameters that satisfy ASME Code Section XI acceptance criteria for flaws exposed to multiple thermal-hydraulic transients. These com-pute-intensive analyses can be carried out with a single execution of FAVOR-OCI. The new methodology determines critical values by solving for either the point of tangency or point of intersection between applied KI versus time histories and a user-selected fracture toughness material property (e.g., ASME KIc, FAVOR Weibull KIc, or Master Curve Weibull KJc) for surface or subsurface flaws. Situations where warm prestress conditions apply can also be addressed. The paper highlights a need for this new capability via applications to a recent independent review of safety cases for RPVs in two Belgian nuclear power plants (NPPs). That review required ASME Section XI assessments of several thousand embedded, quasi-laminar flaws in the wall of each RPV. Analysis results provided by the new capability contributed to the technical bases compiled from several sources by the Belgian nuclear regulatory agency (FANC) and eventually used by FANC to justify the restart of these NPPs.

Dickson, Terry L.↗
DOE OSTI2016

Diets high in resistant starch increase plasma levels of trimethylamine-N-oxide, a gut microbiome metabolite associated with CVD risk

Production of trimethylamine- N -oxide (TMAO), a biomarker of CVD risk, is dependent on intestinal microbiota, but little is known of dietary conditions promoting changes in gut microbial communities. Resistant starches (RS) alter the human microbiota. We sought to determine whether diets varying in RS and carbohydrate (CHO) content affect plasma TMAO levels. We also assessed postprandial glucose and insulin responses and plasma lipid changes to diets high and low in RS. In a cross-over trial, fifty-two men and women consumed a 2-week baseline diet (41 percentage of energy (%E) CHO, 40 % fat, 19 % protein), followed by 2-week high- and low-RS diets separated by 2-week washouts. RS diets were assigned at random within the context of higher (51–53 %E) v . lower CHO (39–40 %E) intake. Measurements were obtained in the fasting state and, for glucose and insulin, during a meal test matching the composition of the assigned diet. With lower CHO intake, plasma TMAO, carnitine, betaine and γ -butyrobetaine concentrations were higher after the high- v . low-RS diet ( P <0·01 each). These metabolites were not differentially affected by high v . low RS when CHO intake was high. Although the high-RS meal reduced postprandial insulin and glucose responses when CHO intake was low ( P <0·01 each), RS did not affect fasting lipids, lipoproteins, glucose or insulin irrespective of dietary CHO content. In conclusion, a lower-CHO diet high in RS was associated with higher plasma TMAO levels. These findings, together with the absence of change in fasting lipids, suggest that short-term high-RS diets do not improve markers of cardiometabolic health.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

ORNL Evaluation of Electrabel Safety Cases for Doel 3 / Tihange 2: Final Report

Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) performed a detailed technical review of the 2015 Electrabel (EBL) Safety Cases prepared for the Belgium reactor pressure vessels (RPVs) at Doel 3 and Tihange 2 (D3/T2). The Federal Agency for Nuclear Control (FANC) in Belgium commissioned ORNL to provide a thorough assessment of the existing safety margins against cracking of the RPVs due to the presence of almost laminar flaws found in each RPV. Initial efforts focused on surveying relevant literature that provided necessary background knowledge on the issues related to the quasilaminar flaws observed in D3/T2 reactors. Next, ORNL proceeded to develop an independent quantitative assessment of the entire flaw population in the two Belgian reactors according to the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code, Section XI, Appendix G, Fracture Toughness Criteria for Protection Against Failure, New York (1992 and 2004). That screening assessment of all EBL-characterized flaws in D3/T2 used ORNL tools, methodologies, and the ASME Code Case N-848, Alternative Characterization Rules for QuasiLaminar Flaws . Results and conclusions from the ORNL flaw acceptance assessments of D3/T2 were compared with those from the 2015 EBL Safety Cases. Specific findings of the ORNL evaluation of that part of the EBL structural integrity assessment focusing on stability of the flaw population subjected to primary design transients include the following: ORNL s analysis results were similar to those of EBL in that very few characterized flaws were found not compliant with the ASME (1992) acceptance criterion. ORNL s application of the more recent ASME Section XI (2004) produced only four noncompliant flaws, all due to LOCAs. The finding of a greater number of non-compliant flaws in the EBL screening assessment is due principally to a significantly more restrictive (conservative) criterion for flaw size acceptance used by EBL. ORNL s screening assessment results (obtained using an analysis methodology different from that of EBL) are interpreted herein as confirming the EBL screening results for D3/T2. ORNL s independent refined analysis demonstrated the EBL-characterized flaw 1660, which is non-compliant in the ORNL and EBL screening assessment, is rendered compliant when modeled as a more realistic individual quasi-laminar flaw using a 3-D XFEM analysis approach. ORNL s and EBL s refined analyses are in good agreement for the flaw 1660 close to the clad/base metal interface; ORNL is not persuaded that repeating this exercise for more than one non-compliant flaw is necessary to accept the EBL conclusions derived from the aggregate of EBL refined analysis results. ORNL General Conclusions Regarding the Structural Integrity Assessment (SIA) Conducted by EBL for D3/T2 Based on comparative evaluations of ORNL and EBL SIA analyses and on consideration of other results, ORNL is in agreement with the general conclusions reported by Electrabel in their RPV D3/T2 Technical Summary Note of April 14, 2015: More than 99 percent of flaws in D3/T2 meet the defined screening criterion, rendering them benign with respect to initiation in the event of a design transient. Refined analyses of non-compliant flaws from the screening assessment indicate that only 11 of the 16196 detected flaws have a critical reference-temperature material index (designated RTNDT) that implies the possibility of the initiation of cleavage fracture at some future time. For those 11 2 flaws, the calculated margin in RTNDT (a measure of acceptable embrittlement relative to end-ofservice-life conditions) is significant, being greater than 80 C. Fatigue crack growth is not a concern in the flaw-acceptability analyses. Primary stress re-evaluation confirms that the collapse pressure is more than 1.5 times the design pressure in the presence of defects detected in D3/T2. Sufficient conservatisms are built into the input data and into the different steps of the SIA; in some cases, those conservatisms are quantified and imply that additional margins exist in the SIA. Taken as a whole, the foregoing results and conclusions confirm the structural integrity of Doel 3 and Tihange 2 under all design transients with ample margin in the presence of the 16196 detected flaws.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2013

Breast Cancer Mortality vs. Exercise and Breast Size in Runners and Walkers

Purpose: Identify predictors of breast cancer mortality in women who exercised below (,7.5 metabolic equivalent hours/ week, MET-hours/wk), at (7.5 to 12.5 MET-hours/wk), or above ($12.5 MET-hours/wk) recommended levels. Methods: Cox proportional hazard analyses of baseline pre-diagnosis MET-hours/wk vs. breast cancer mortality adjusted for follow-up age, race, baseline menopause, and estrogen and oral contraceptive use in 79,124 women (32,872 walkers, 46,252 runners) from the National Walkers’ and Runners’ Health Studies. Results: One-hundred eleven women (57 walkers, 54 runners) died from breast cancer during the 11-year follow-up. The decline in mortality in women who exercised $7.5 MET-hours/wk was not different for walking and running (P = 0.34), so running and walking energy expenditures were combined. The risk for breast cancer mortality was 41.5% lower for $7.5 vs. ,7.5 MET-hours/wk (HR: 0.585, 95%CI: 0.382 to 0.924, P = 0.02), which persisted when adjusted for BMI (HR: 0.584, 95%CI: 0.368 to 0.956, P = 0.03). Other than age and menopause, baseline bra cup size was the strongest predictor of breast cancer mortality, i.e., 57.9% risk increase per cup size when adjusted for MET-hours/wk and the other covariates (HR: 1.579, 95%CI: 1.268 to 1.966, P,0.0001), and 70.4% greater when further adjusted for BMI (HR: 1.704, 95%CI: 1.344 to 2.156, P = 1025 ). Breast cancer mortality was 4.0-fold greater (HR: 3.980, 95%CI: 1.894 to 9.412, P = 0.0001) for C-cup, and 4.7-fold greater (HR: 4.668, 95%CI: 1.963 to 11.980, P = 0.0004) for $D-cup vs. A-cup when adjusted for BMI and other covariates. Adjustment for cup size and BMI did not eliminate the association between breast cancer mortality and $7.5 MET-hour/wk walked or run (HR: 0.615, 95%CI: 0.389 to 1.004, P = 0.05). Conclusion: Breast cancer mortality decreased in association with both meeting the exercise recommendations and smaller breast volume.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2013

Inadequate Exercise as a Risk Factor for Sepsis Mortality

Objective: Test whether inadequate exercise is related to sepsis mortality. Research Design and Methods: Mortality surveillance of an epidemiological cohort of 155,484 National Walkers’ and Runners’ Health Study participants residing in the United States. Deaths were monitored for an average of 11.6-years using the National Death index through December 31, 2008. Cox proportional hazard analyses were used to compare sepsis mortality (ICD-10 A40-41) to inadequate exercise (,1.07 METh/d run or walked) as measured on their baseline questionnaires. Deaths occurring within one year of the baseline survey were excluded. Results: Sepsis was the underlying cause in 54 deaths (sepsisunderlying) and a contributing cause in 184 deaths (sepsiscontributing), or 238 total sepsis-related deaths (sepsistotal). Inadequate exercise was associated with 2.24-fold increased risk for sepsisunderlying (95%CI: 1.21 to 4.07-fold, P = 0.01), 2.11-fold increased risk for sepsiscontributing (95%CI: 1.51- to 2.92-fold, P,1024 ), and 2.13-fold increased risk for sepsistotal (95%CI: 1.59- to 2.84-fold, P,1026 ) when adjusted for age, sex, race, and cohort. The risk increase did not differ significantly between runners and walkers, by sex, or by age. Sepsistotal risk was greater in diabetics (P = 1025 ), cancer survivors (P = 0.0001), and heart attack survivors (P = 0.003) and increased with waist circumference (P = 0.0004). The sepsistotal risk associated with inadequate exercise persisted when further adjusted for diabetes, prior cancer, prior heart attack and waist circumference, and when excluding deaths with cancer, or cardiovascular, respiratory, or genitourinary disease as the underlying cause. Inadequate exercise also increased sepsistotal risk in 2163 baseline diabetics (4.78-fold, 95%CI: 2.1- to 13.8-fold, P = 0.0001) when adjusted, which was significantly greater (P = 0.03) than the adjusted risk increase in non-diabetics (1.80-fold, 95%CI: 1.30- to 2.46-fold, P = 0.0006). Conclusion: Inadequate exercise is a risk factor for sepsis mortality, particular in diabetics.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2013

Dose-Response Relationship of Physical Activity to Premature and Total All-Cause and Cardiovascular Disease Mortality in Walkers

Purpose: To assess the dose-response relationships between cause-specific mortality and exercise energy expenditure in a prospective epidemiological cohort of walkers. Methods: The sample consisted of the 8,436 male and 33,586 female participants of the National Walkers’ Health Study. Walking energy expenditure was calculated in metabolic equivalents (METs, 1 MET = 3.5 ml O2/kg/min), which were used to divide the cohort into four exercise categories: category 1 (#1.07 MET-hours/d), category 2 (1.07 to 1.8 MET-hours/d), category 3 (1.8 to 3.6 MET-hours/d), and category 4 ($3.6 MET-hours/d). Competing risk regression analyses were use to calculate the risk of mortality for categories 2, 3 and 4 relative to category 1. Results: 22.9% of the subjects were in category 1, 16.1% in category 2, 33.3% in category 3, and 27.7% in category 4. There were 2,448 deaths during the 9.6 average years of follow-up. Total mortality was 11.2% lower in category 2 (P = 0.04), 32.4% lower in category 3 (P,10212) and 32.9% lower in category 4 (P = 10211) than in category 1. For underlying causes of death, the respective risk reductions for categories 2, 3 and 4 were 23.6% (P = 0.008), 35.2% (P,1025 ), and 34.9% (P = 0.0001) for cardiovascular disease mortality; 27.8% (P = 0.18), 20.6% (P = 0.07), and 31.4% (P = 0.009) for ischemic heart disease mortality; and 39.4% (P = 0.18), 63.8% (P = 0.005), and 90.6% (P = 0.002) for diabetes mortality when compared to category 1. For all related mortality (i.e., underlying and contributing causes of death combined), the respective risk reductions for categories 2, 3 and 4 were 18.7% (P = 0.22), 42.5% (P = 0.001), and 57.5% (P = 0.0001) for heart failure; 9.4% (P = 0.56), 44.3% (P = 0.0004), and 33.5% (P = 0.02) for hypertensive diseases; 11.5% (P = 0.38), 41.0% (P,1024 ), and 35.5% (P = 0.001) for dysrhythmias: and 23.2% (P = 0.13), 45.8% (P = 0.0002), and 41.1% (P = 0.005) for cerebrovascular diseases when compared to category 1. Conclusions: There are substantial health benefits to exceeding the current exercise guidelines.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2013

The Relationship of Walking Intensity to Total and Cause-Specific Mortality. Results from the National Walkers’ Health Study

Purpose: Test whether: 1) walking intensity predicts mortality when adjusted for walking energy expenditure, and 2) slow walking pace (≥24-minute mile) identifies subjects at substantially elevated risk for mortality. Methods: Hazard ratios from Cox proportional survival analyses of all-cause and cause-specific mortality vs. usual walking pace (min/mile) in 7,374 male and 31,607 female recreational walkers. Survival times were left censored for age at entry into the study. Other causes of death were treated as a competing risk for the analyses of cause-specific mortality. All analyses were adjusted for sex, education, baseline smoking, prior heart attack, aspirin use, diet, BMI, and walking energy expenditure. Deaths within one year of baseline were excluded. Results: The National Death Index identified 1968 deaths during the average 9.4-year mortality surveillance. Each additional minute per mile in walking pace was associated with an increased risk of mortality due to all causes (1.8% increase, P=10-5), cardiovascular diseases (2.4% increase, P=0.001, 637 deaths), ischemic heart disease (2.8% increase, P=0.003, 336 deaths), heart failure (6.5% increase, P=0.001, 36 deaths), hypertensive heart disease (6.2% increase, P=0.01, 31 deaths), diabetes (6.3% increase, P=0.004, 32 deaths), and dementia (6.6% increase, P=0.0004, 44 deaths). Those reporting a pace slower than a 24-minute mile were at increased risk for mortality due to all-causes (44.3% increased risk, P=0.0001), cardiovascular diseases (43.9% increased risk, P=0.03), and dementia (5.0-fold increased risk, P=0.0002) even though they satisfied the current exercise recommendations by walking ≥7.5 metabolic equivalent (MET)-hours per week. Conclusions: The risk for mortality: 1) decreases in association with walking intensity, and 2) increases substantially in association for walking pace ≥24 minute mile (equivalent to <400m during a six-minute walk test) even among subjects who exercise regularly.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗