Welker, Zachary | Engineering Papers

DOE OSTI2024

Development of Data Reporting Standards for High-Temperature Gas-cooled Reactor (HTGR) Nuclear Energy University Program (NEUP) Thermal-Fluid Experiments

Since 2009, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy's Nuclear Energy University Program (NEUP) has been at the forefront of nuclear research, specifically concentrating on advancing high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR) technologies. By Fiscal Year 2023, NEUP has authorized 35 projects dedicated to HTGR research, each contributing significantly to the enhancement of our understanding of this technology. The outcomes of these diverse projects have been disseminated through final NEUP reports, peer-reviewed journal articles, and presentations at academic conferences, forming a comprehensive tapestry of knowledge. Despite the substantial value of these findings, their dissemination has been fragmented, posing challenges for accessibility to researchers and policymakers and leading to underutilization of DOE investments. Recognizing this critical gap and its potential consequences for the future of nuclear research, the Advanced Reactor Technologies (ART) Gas-Cooled Reactor (GCR) program conducted an extensive survey of completed and ongoing HTGR NEUP projects. This survey enabled the compilation of crucial data, resulting in the development of a specialized public-access database tailored for computational fluid dynamics and system code validation, specifically designed for HTGR applications. However, the data collection process revealed a significant challenge in central data organization due to individual researchers from different institutes employing varying logics and preferences for recording and documenting experimental data. Consequently, an urgent need has been identified to establish a standardized reporting format for HTGR experimental projects. Addressing this issue is essential for enhancing collaboration, maximizing the impact of DOE investments, and ensuring the seamless advancement of HTGR technologies in nuclear research.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Verification, Validation, and Calibration Through a Causal Lens

While typical validation and verification approaches focus on identifying the associations between data elements using statistical and machine learning methods, the novel methods in this paper focus instead on identifying causal relationships between data elements. Statistical and machine-learning-based approaches are strictly data-driven, meaning that they provide quantitative comparison measures between data sets without explicitly considering the hypotheses behind them. This can lead to the erroneous conclusion that, if two data sets are close enough, the models that generated them are similar. In addition, when experimental and simulated data differ to an extent that fails to meet the acceptance criteria, calibration techniques are used to tweak simulation model parameters to reduce the gap between the two types of data. This produces the false expectation that a simulation model will match reality. The methods presented in this paper move away from these strictly data-driven methods for validation and calibration toward more robust, model-driven methods based on causal inference. Causal inference aims to identify the possible mechanisms that might have generated data. Thus, this analysis targets the prediction of the effects when one (or more) of the identified mechanisms are altered. There are many approaches to identify, quantify, and illustrate causal relationships. For the scope of this paper, directed graphs are employed as causal models. If the directed graph lacks cycles, it is known as a directed acyclic graph. A node in such a graph represents an observed data element while a directed edge connecting two nodes represents a causal relationship between two variables. The developed causal methods are designed to extract causal models from simulation models and experimental data. Causal models capture the causal relationships between data elements (e.g., simulated and experimental data). In this context, validation and verification are performed by comparing causal models. The proposed approach does not only inform system analysts on how a simulation model matches real-world data, but also identifies elements of the simulation model that should be revised when discrepancies between simulation and experimental data are observed. Through these causal methods, analysts can identify the portion of the model equation(s) that are behind an edge connecting two variables. Hence, once the structural differences between causal models have been determined, model calibration can occur by changing only those model parameters that impact the identified causal relationships.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗