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Weiner, Zachary J.

Publications and source records attributed to Weiner, Zachary J..

Mitigation of SARS-CoV-2 transmission at a large public university

In Fall 2020, universities saw extensive transmission of SARS-CoV-2 among their populations, threatening health of the university and surrounding communities, and viability of in-person instruction. Here we report a case study at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, where a multimodal “SHIELD: Target, Test, and Tell” program, with other non-pharmaceutical interventions, was employed to keep classrooms and laboratories open. The program included epidemiological modeling and surveillance, fast/frequent testing using a novel low-cost and scalable saliva-based RT-qPCR assay for SARS-CoV-2 that bypasses RNA extraction, called covidSHIELD, and digital tools for communication and compliance. In Fall 2020, we performed >1,000,000 covidSHIELD tests, positivity rates remained low, we had zero COVID-19-related hospitalizations or deaths amongst our university community, and mortality in the surrounding Champaign County was reduced more than 4-fold relative to expected. This case study shows that fast/frequent testing and other interventions mitigated transmission of SARS-CoV-2 at a large public university.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Time-dependent heterogeneity leads to transient suppression of the COVID-19 epidemic, not herd immunity

Significance Epidemics generally spread through a succession of waves that reflect factors on multiple timescales. Here, we develop a general approach bridging across these timescales and demonstrate how to incorporate population heterogeneity into a wide class of epidemiological models. We demonstrate that a fragile state of transient collective immunity emerges during early, high-paced stages of the epidemic, leading to suppression of individual epidemic waves. However, this state is not an indication of lasting herd immunity: Subsequent waves may emerge due to stochastic changes in individual social activity. Parameters of transient collective immunity are estimated using empirical data from the COVID-19 epidemic in several US locations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Constraining early dark energy with gravitational waves before recombination

In this work, we show that the nonperturbative decay of ultralight scalars into Abelian gauge bosons, recently proposed as a possible solution to the Hubble tension, produces a stochastic background of gravitational waves which is constrained by the cosmic microwave background. We simulate the full nonlinear dynamics of resonant dark photon production and the associated gravitational-wave production, finding the signals to exceed constraints for the entire parameter space we consider. Our findings suggest that gravitational-wave production from the decay of early dark energy may provide a unique probe of these models.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗