Global Futures: The Future of Nonrenewable Resource Security
Nonrenewable resources are distributed unevenly throughout the world. Throughout history, the ability to access nonrenewable resources has been a source of geopolitical tension. Modern civilization is increasingly dependent on unevenly distributed resources that are traded globally. This cooperation has helped to increase resource security by increasing affordable access to resources around the world. The continued accessibility of nonrenewable resources is the key uncertainty to security over the next 15 to 25 years. Increased global demands for nonrenewable resources, fragility to resource shocks, and geopolitical upheavals may threaten nonrenewable resource security. A reduction in resource security could exacerbate defense and economic vulnerabilities to resource shocks, and increased fears of resource insecurity could drive conflict over resources leading to geopolitical upheavals. National security organizations can help build resource security by making investments that create resilience to resource shocks. They can also promote international cooperation that builds trust. Together, increased resilience to shocks and increased global trust should help reduce fears of resource insecurity and expand global cooperation on resource issues, thereby bolstering resource security.