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Wang, Minghuai

Publications and source records attributed to Wang, Minghuai.

Fire–precipitation interactions amplify the quasi-biennial variability in fires over southern Mexico and Central America

Fires have great ecological, social, and economic impact. However, fire prediction and management remain challenges due to a limited understanding of their roles in the Earth system. Fires over southern Mexico and Central America (SMCA) are a good example of this, greatly impacting local air quality and regional climate. Here we report that the spring peak (April–May) of fire activities in this region has a distinct quasi-biennial signal based on multiple satellite datasets measuring different fire characteristics. The variability is initially driven by quasi-biennial variations in precipitation. Composite analysis indicates that strong fire years correspond to suppressed ascending motion and weakened precipitation over the SMCA. The anomalous precipitation over the SMCA is further found to be mostly related to the East Pacific–North Pacific (EP-NP) pattern 2 months prior to the fire season. The positive phase of the EP-NP leads to enhanced precipitation over the eastern US but suppressed precipitation over the SMCA, similar to the spatial pattern of precipitation differences between strong and weak fire years. Meanwhile, the quasi-biennial signals in precipitation and fires appear to be amplified by their interactions through a positive feedback loop at short timescales. Model simulations show that in strong fire years, more aerosol particles are released and transported downstream over the Gulf of Mexico and the eastern US, where suspended light-absorbing aerosols warm the atmosphere and cause the ascending motion of the air aloft. Subsequently, a compensating downward motion is formed over the region of the fire source and ultimately suppresses precipitation and intensifies fires. Statistical analysis shows the different durations of the two-way interaction, where the fire suppression effect of precipitation lasts for more than 20 d, while fire leads to a decrease in precipitation at shorter timescales (3–5 d). This study demonstrates the importance of fire–climate interactions in shaping the fire activities on an interannual scale and highlights how precipitation–fire interactions at short timescales contribute to the interannual variability in both fire and precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Improving BC Mixing State and CCN Activity Representation With Machine Learning in the Community Atmosphere Model Version 6 (CAM6)

Abstract Representing mixing state of black carbon (BC) is challenging for global climate models (GCMs). The Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6) with the four‐mode version of the Modal Aerosol Module (MAM4) represents aerosols as fully internal mixtures with uniform composition within each aerosol mode, resulting in high degree of internal mixing of BC with non‐BC species and large mass ratio of coating to BC ( R BC , the mass ratio of non‐BC species to BC in BC‐containing particles). To improve BC mixing state representation, we coupled a machine learning (ML) model of BC mixing state index trained on particle‐resolved simulations to the CAM6 with MAM4 (MAM4‐ML). In MAM4‐ML, we use R BC to partition accumulation mode particles into two new modes, BC‐free particles and BC‐containing particles. We adjust R BC to make the modeled BC mixing state index ( χ mode ) match the one predicted by the ML model ( χ ML ). On a global average, the mass fraction of BC‐containing particles in accumulation mode decreases from 100% (MAM4‐default) to 48% (MAM4‐ML). The globally averaged χ mode decreases from 78% (MAM4‐default) to 63% (MAM4‐ML, 19% reduction) and agrees well with χ ML (66%). The R BC decreases by 52% for accumulation mode and better agrees with observations. The hygroscopicity drops by 9% for BC‐containing particles in accumulation mode, leading to a 20% reduction in the BC activation fraction. The surface BC concentration increases most (6.9%) in the Arctic, and the BC burden increases by 4%, globally. Our study highlights the application of the ML model for improving key aerosol processes in GCMs.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

The Joint Ninth Aerosol, Clouds, Precipitation and Climate (ACPC) initiative and TRacking Aerosol Convection interactions ExpeRiment (TRACER) Workshop

The joint ninth Aerosols-Clouds-Precipitation-and-Climate (ACPC; http://www.acpcinitiative.org) initiative and TRacking Aerosol Convection interactions ExpeRiment (TRACER; Jensen et al., 2022) workshop was convened from 16–19 May 2023 at Texas Southern University (TSU), Houston, TX, and online to discuss progress towards understanding the interactions among aerosols, clouds, precipitation, and climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Distinct Seasonality in Aerosol Responses to Emission Control Over Northern China

Despite intensive research exploring how aerosols respond to emission control over Northern China, efforts mostly focus on the environmental benefit, especially in winter. Here we found that unlike the most substantial PM 2.5 concentration reduction in winter, aerosol optical depth (AOD) declines more than 2 times faster in summer, causing an increase in aerosol radiative effects of 1.2 (5.7)Wm -2 on all-sky (clear-sky) conditions over 2013–2019 and largely shaping the climate impact. Low-level aerosols are shown to be the prime contributor under the synergetic effects of aerosol composition and ambient relative humidity (RH). The dominance of the highly hygroscopic sulfate combined with high RH enables a strong extinction efficiency of the reduced summertime aerosols, while the insignificant AOD decline in wintertime result from the dominance of organic aerosols with weak hygroscopicity, and is further offset by the increased frequencies of extremely high RH. We show the environmental and climatic responses of aerosols to emission control exhibit distinctively different seasonality.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Disentangling the mechanism of temperature and water vapor modulation on ozone under a warming climate

Temperature and water vapor have been considered as important factors affecting ozone concentrations, however, their synergistic effect on ozone, as well as its response to a warming climate remains unclear. Here, numerical experiments with different combinations of climate and emissions highlighted opposite changes of annual ozone over the contiguous U.S. under scenarios with high vs. low ozone precursor emissions in the future with warming. Comparing the occurrence of heat waves on higher vs. lower ozone days, we found significant suppression of the heat wave exacerbation of ozone by anthropogenic emissions reductions. Variations of ozone with temperature (T) and water vapor (Q) over the western U.S. and southeastern U.S. in the simulations are clearly revealed through the construction of an O 3 -T-Q diagram. Based on the diagram, we further identified a T-dominant regime at higher temperatures where ozone increases with temperature increase, and a Q-dominant regime at lower temperatures where ozone decreases with temperature increase due to the negative effect of water vapor. With larger anthropogenic emission reductions, ozone may increase at a lower rate with temperature in the T-dominant regime, or even decrease with temperature in the Q-dominant regime. Our results show that with large emission reductions, substantial ozone pollution due to warming and increasing heat waves may be counteracted by water vapor, partly turning the ‘climate penalty’ on ozone into ‘climate benefit’. Hence controlling anthropogenic emissions may be an increasingly important strategy in a warmer and wetter climate to improve air quality and public health.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Effective radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols in E3SMv1: historical changes, causality, decomposition, and parameterization sensitivities

The effective radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols (ERF aer ) is an important measure of the anthropogenic aerosol effects simulated by a global climate model. Here we analyze ERF aer simulated by the E3SMv1 atmosphere model using both century-long free-running atmosphere-land simulations and short nudged simulations. We relate the simulated ERF aer to characteristics of the aerosol composition and optical properties, and evaluate the relationships between key aerosol and cloud properties. In terms of historical changes from the year 1870 to 2014, our results show that the global mean anthropogenic aerosol burden and optical depth increase during the simulation period as expected, but the regional averages show large differences in the temporal evolution. The largest regional differences are found in the emission-induced evolution of the burden and optical depth of the sulfate aerosol: a strong decreasing trend is seen in the Northern Hemisphere high-latitude region after around 1970, while a continued increase is simulated in the tropics. Consequently, although the global mean anthropogenic aerosol burden and optical depth increase from 1870 to 2014, the ERF aer magnitude does not increase after around year 1970. The relationships between key aerosol and cloud properties (relative changes between preindustrial and present-day conditions) also show evident changes after 1970, diverging from the linear relationships exhibited for the period from 1870 to 2014. The ERF aer in E3SMv1 is relatively large compared to the recently published multi-model estimates; the primary reason is the large indirect aerosol effect (i.e., through aerosol-cloud interactions). Compared to other models, E3SMv1 features a stronger sensitivity of the cloud droplet effective radius to changes in the cloud droplet number concentration. Large sensitivity is also seen in the liquid cloud optical depth, which is determined by changes in both the effective radius and liquid water path. Aerosol-induced changes in liquid and ice cloud properties in E3SMv1 are found to have a strong correlation, as the evolution of anthropogenic sulfate aerosols affects both the liquid cloud formation and the homogeneous ice nucleation in cirrus clouds. The ERF aer estimates in E3SMv1 for the shortwave and longwave components are sensitive to the parameterization changes in both liquid and ice cloud processes. When the parameterization of ice cloud processes is modified, the top-of-atmosphere forcing changes in the shortwave and longwave components largely offset each other, so the net effect is negligible. This suggests that, to reduce the magnitude of the net ERF aer , it would be more effective to reduce the anthropogenic aerosol effect through liquid or mixed-phase clouds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Parameterizing Convective Organization Effects With a Moisture-PDF Approach in Climate Models: Concept and a Regional Case Simulation

We propose a parameterization scheme of convective organization effects based on a moisture-distribution approach, which can reflect aggregation of convective cells within a model grid as well as the interaction between convection and spatial heterogeneity in free-troposphere moisture. With this concept, convective cells in an aggregated state are surrounded by air that is moister than the grid-mean condition, which provides a “shielding” effect favorable for deeper convective updrafts. Such effects are represented quantitatively via utilizing a schematic diagram about the geometric interpretation of convective cluster, dry area, and their contact area, in which both the convective cluster size and dry area fraction increase during the development of convection. Our sensitivity analyses indicate that the new scheme performs well in capturing the mean precipitation features. Excluding the convective organization effects in the model leads to a considerable reduction in the simulated precipitation magnitude. Notably, there exists an inverse relationship between background mean moisture condition and sub-grid moisture variability for a given rain rate, suggesting that with a high spatial heterogeneity in free-troposphere moisture, convection can still develop and maintain its strength under relatively dry background conditions, consistent with the convection-permitting model simulation. Overall, our new parameterization of convective organization effects can successfully reproduce the relationship between precipitation and sub-grid moisture variability, which is a missing element in traditional convection parameterization schemes but important for the simulations of precipitation variability at various scales in climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Strong Anthropogenic Black Carbon Forcing Constrained by Pollution Trends Over China

Estimates of the effective radiative forcing from aerosol-radiation interaction (ERF ari ) of anthropogenic Black Carbon (BC) have been disputable and require better constraints. Here we find a substantial decline in atmospheric absorption of −5.79Wm −2 decade −1 over eastern central China (ECC) responding to recent anthropogenic BC emission reductions. By combining the observational finding with advances from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase6 (CMIP6), we identify an emergent constraint on the ERF ari of anthropogenic BC. We show that across CMIP6 models the simulated trends correlate well with simulated annual mean shortwave atmospheric absorption by anthropogenic BC over China. Making use of this emergent relationship allows us to constrain the aerosol absorption optical depth of anthropogenic BC and further provide a constrained range of 2.4–3.0 Wm −2 for its top-of-atmosphere ERF ari over China, higher than existing estimates. Furthermore, our work supports a strong warming effect of BC over China, and highlights the need to improve BC simulations over source regions.

CMIP6 models↗

Protecting ice from melting under sunlight via radiative cooling

As ice plays a critical role in various aspects of life, from food preservation to ice sports and ecosystem, it is desirable to protect ice from melting, especially under sunlight. The fundamental reason for ice melt under sunlight is related to the imbalanced energy flows of the incoming sunlight and outgoing thermal radiation. Therefore, radiative cooling, which can balance the energy flows without energy consumption, offers a sustainable approach for ice protection. Here, we demonstrate that a hierarchically designed radiative cooling film based on abundant and eco-friendly cellulose acetate molecules versatilely provides effective and passive protection to various forms/scales of ice under sunlight. This work provides inspiration for developing an effective, scalable, and sustainable route for preserving ice and other critical elements of ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Anthropogenic–biogenic interaction amplifies warming from emission reduction over the southeastern US

A decline of surface biogenic secondary organic aerosols through the mediation of reduced anthropogenic aerosols has been recognized as an air quality co-benefit of anthropogenic emission control over the southeastern US. However, the climate impacts of this anthropogenic–biogenic interaction remain poorly understood. Here, we identified a substantial decline of summertime aerosol loading aloft over the southeastern US in recent decades through the interaction, which leads to a stronger decline in column-integrated aerosol optical depth and a greater increase in radiative fluxes over the southeastern than northeastern US, different from trends of anthropogenic emissions and near-surface aerosol loading. The anthropogenic–biogenic interaction is shown to explain more than 60% of the coherent increasing trend of 5.3 Wm -2 decade -1 in clear-sky surface downward radiative fluxes. We show that current climate models fail to represent this interaction. The interaction is further projected to amplify the positive radiative forcing from emission control by 42.3% regionally over the southeastern US and globally by 5.4% in 2050 under RCP4.5 compared to 2005. This amplification effect implies greater challenges to achieving the Paris Agreement temperature targets with continuous emission control in future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Multiscale Simulation of Precipitation Over East Asia by Variable Resolution CAM-MPAS

This study evaluates the precipitation over East Asia simulated by the variable resolution CAM-MPAS featuring the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) atmospheric dynamical core coupled with the physics parameterizations of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) version 5.4. Two CAM-MPAS experiments, one with a global quasi-uniform resolution mesh of 120 km (MPAS-UR) and the other with a variable resolution mesh of 30 to 120 km refined over East Asia (MPAS-VR), are conducted from 1989 to 2005 following the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project protocol. Two regional climate model simulations at ~25 km resolution from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment East Asia second plan are also analyzed for comparison. Results show that CAM-MPAS performs better than the selected regional models in simulating the precipitation climatology over East Asia. Compared with MPAS-UR, MPAS-VR with refinement over East Asia better simulates the precipitation over and around the Tibetan Plateau (TP), the frequency distribution of light, moderate, and heavy precipitation in various regions of China, and the interannual precipitation pattern associated with the East Asian summer monsoon. The improvements in MPAS-VR relative to MPAS-UR largely come from the decreased grid spacing rather than the use of finer-scale terrain information. Particularly, decreased grid spacing is more essential for simulating the precipitation magnitude over TP and the location of peak precipitation south of TP, likely due to the better resolved physical and dynamical processes associated with orographic precipitation. The 30-120 km CAM-MPAS model is shown to be a promising tool for precipitation simulation over East Asia.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Aerosol-boundary-layer-monsoon interactions amplify semi-direct effect of biomass smoke on low cloud formation in Southeast Asia

Low clouds play a key role in the Earth-atmosphere energy balance and influence agricultural production and solar-power generation. Smoke aloft has been found to enhance marine stratocumulus through aerosol-cloud interactions, but its role in regions with strong human activities and complex monsoon circulation remains unclear. Here we show that biomass burning aerosols aloft strongly increase the low cloud coverage over both land and ocean in subtropical southeastern Asia. The degree of this enhancement and its spatial extent are comparable to that in the Southeast Atlantic, even though the total biomass burning emissions in Southeast Asia are only one-fifth of those in Southern Africa. We find that a synergetic effect of aerosol-cloud-boundary layer interaction with the monsoon is the main reason for the strong semi-direct effect and enhanced low cloud formation in southeastern Asia.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Analysis of secondary organic aerosol simulation bias in the Community Earth System Model (CESM2.1)

Organic aerosol (OA) has been considered as one of the most important uncertainties in climate modeling due to the complexity in presenting its chemical production and depletion mechanisms. To better understand the capability of climate models and probe into the associated uncertainties in simulating OA, we evaluate the Community Earth System Model version 2.1 (CESM2.1) configured with the Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6) with comprehensive tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry representation (CAM6-Chem) through a long-term simulation (1988–2019) with observations collected from multiple datasets in the United States. We find that CESM generally reproduces the interannual variation and seasonal cycle of OA mass concentration at surface layer with a correlation of 0.40 compared to ground observations and systematically overestimates (69%) in summer and underestimates (-19%) in winter. Through a series of sensitivity simulations, we reveal that modeling bias is primarily related to the dominant fraction of monoterpene-formed secondary organic aerosol (SOA), and a strong positive correlation of 0.67 is found between monoterpene emission and modeling bias in the eastern US during summer. In terms of vertical profile, the model prominently underestimates OA and monoterpene concentrations by 37%–99% and 82%–99%, respectively, in the upper air (>500 m) as validated against aircraft observations. Our study suggests that the current volatility basis set (VBS) scheme applied in CESM might be parameterized with monoterpene SOA yields that are too high, which subsequently results in strong SOA production near the emission source area. We also find that the model has difficulty in reproducing the decreasing trend of surface OA in the southeastern US probably because of employing pure gas VBS to represent isoprene SOA which is in reality mainly formed through multiphase chemistry; thus, the influence of aerosol acidity and sulfate particle change on isoprene SOA formation has not been fully considered in the model. This study reveals the urgent need to improve the SOA modeling in climate models.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Linking Deep and Shallow Convective Mass Fluxes via an Assumed Entrainment Distribution in CAM5‐CLUBB: Parameterization and Simulated Precipitation Variability

Abstract We modify the Zhang‐McFarlane (ZM) deep convection scheme in the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 to couple it with a unified parameterization for boundary‐layer turbulence and shallow convection, that is, Cloud Layers Unified by Binormals (CLUBB). By assuming a lognormal distribution of entrainment rate across the entire moist convective regimes, we link mass fluxes between shallow and deep convection, which are partitioned by the entrainment rate of the shallowest deep convective plume. Hence, a new deep convective closure is established which is coupled to the sub‐grid vertical motion variability in CLUBB. The convection feedback (or memory) effects are also considered to decrease the entrainment spectrum width and enhance the vertical velocity variability that further affect deep convection. Results show that the revised scheme improves the precipitation simulations in terms of the mean state and variability at various timescales, such as the alleviated double‐intertropical convergence zone and more realistic simulations of the seasonal variation of monsoon precipitation over East Asia, Madden‐Julian Oscillation, and precipitation diurnal phase propagations downstream of large terrains. The improvements are still seen in many aspects such as the mean‐state precipitation when turning off the convection feedback impacts in the revised scheme, emphasizing the benefits of using the modified mass‐flux closure. However, the convection feedbacks have considerable effects on the precipitation diurnal cycle simulations over regions with late‐afternoon precipitation peaks. Overall, the revised scheme provides a unified treatment for sub‐grid vertical motions across regimes of boundary‐layer turbulence, shallow convection, and deep convection, leading to better‐simulated precipitation at various timescales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Greater committed warming after accounting for the pattern effect

Our planet’s energy balance is sensitive to spatial inhomogeneities in sea surface temperature and sea ice changes, but this is typically ignored in climate projections. Here, we show the energy budget during recent decades can be closed by combining changes in effective radiative forcing, linear radiative damping and this pattern effect. The pattern effect is of comparable magnitude but opposite sign to Earth’s net energy imbalance in the 2000s, indicating its importance when predicting the future climate on the basis of observations. Additionally, after the pattern effect is accounted for, the best-estimate value of committed global warming at present-day forcing rises from 1.31 K (0.99–2.33 K, 5th–95th percentile) to over 2 K, and committed warming in 2100 with constant long-lived forcing increases from 1.32 K (0.94–2.03 K) to over 1.5 K, although the magnitude is sensitive to sea surface temperature dataset. Further constraints on the pattern effect are needed to reduce climate projection uncertainty.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A Simple Model of Global Aerosol Indirect Effects

Most estimates of the global mean indirect effect of anthropogenic aerosol on the Earth's energy balance are from simulations by global models of the aerosol lifecycle coupled with global models of clouds and the hydrologic cycle. Extremely simple models have been developed for integrated assessment models, but lack the flexibility to distinguish between primary and secondary sources of aerosol. Here a simple but more physically based model expresses the aerosol indirect effect (AIE) using analytic representations of cloud and aerosol distributions and processes. Although the simple model is able to produce estimates of AIEs that are comparable to those from some global aerosol models using the same global mean aerosol properties, the estimates by the simple model are sensitive to preindustrial cloud condensation nuclei concentration, preindustrial accumulation mode radius, width of the accumulation mode, size of primary particles, cloud thickness, primary and secondary anthropogenic emissions, the fraction of the secondary anthropogenic emissions that accumulates on the coarse mode, the fraction of the secondary mass that forms new particles, and the sensitivity of liquid water path to droplet number concentration. Estimates of present-day AIEs as low as 5 W/sq m and as high as 0.3 W/sq m are obtained for plausible sets of parameter values. Estimates are surprisingly linear in emissions. The estimates depend on parameter values in ways that are consistent with results from detailed global aerosol-climate simulation models, which adds to understanding of the dependence on AIE uncertainty on uncertainty in parameter values.

Clouds↗

Trace Gas/Aerosol Interactions and GMI Modeling Support

Current global aerosol models use different physical and chemical schemes and parameters, different meteorological fields, and often different emission sources. Since the physical and chemical parameterization schemes are often tuned to obtain results that are consistent with observations, it is difficult to assess the true uncertainty due to meteorology alone. Under the framework of the NASA global modeling initiative (GMI), the differences and uncertainties in aerosol simulations (for sulfate, organic carbon, black carbon, dust and sea salt) solely due to different meteorological fields are analyzed and quantified. Three meteorological datasets available from the NASA DAO GCM, the GISS-II' GCM, and the NASA finite volume GCM (FVGCM) are used to drive the same aerosol model. The global sulfate and mineral dust burdens with FVGCM fields are 40% and 20% less than those with DAO and GISS fields, respectively due to its heavier rainfall. Meanwhile, the sea salt burden predicted with FVGCM fields is 56% and 43% higher than those with DAO and GISS, respectively, due to its stronger convection especially over the Southern Hemispheric Ocean. Sulfate concentrations at the surface in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics and in the middle to upper troposphere differ by more than a factor of 3 between the three meteorological datasets. The agreement between model calculated and observed aerosol concentrations in the industrial regions (e.g., North America and Europe) is quite similar for all three meteorological datasets. Away from the source regions, however, the comparisons with observations differ greatly for DAO, FVGCM and GISS, and the performance of the model using different datasets varies largely depending on sites and species. Global annual average aerosol optical depth at 550 nm is 0.120-0.131 for the three meteorological datasets.

Penner, Joyce E.↗