Walker, Anthony | Engineering Papers

DOE OSTI2023

Accounting for herbaceous communities in process‐based models will advance our understanding of “grassy” ecosystems

Abstract Grassland and other herbaceous communities cover significant portions of Earth's terrestrial surface and provide many critical services, such as carbon sequestration, wildlife habitat, and food production. Forecasts of global change impacts on these services will require predictive tools, such as process‐based dynamic vegetation models. Yet, model representation of herbaceous communities and ecosystems lags substantially behind that of tree communities and forests. The limited representation of herbaceous communities within models arises from two important knowledge gaps: first, our empirical understanding of the principles governing herbaceous vegetation dynamics is either incomplete or does not provide mechanistic information necessary to drive herbaceous community processes with models; second, current model structure and parameterization of grass and other herbaceous plant functional types limits the ability of models to predict outcomes of competition and growth for herbaceous vegetation. In this review, we provide direction for addressing these gaps by: (1) presenting a brief history of how vegetation dynamics have been developed and incorporated into earth system models, (2) reporting on a model simulation activity to evaluate current model capability to represent herbaceous vegetation dynamics and ecosystem function, and (3) detailing several ecological properties and phenomena that should be a focus for both empiricists and modelers to improve representation of herbaceous vegetation in models. Together, empiricists and modelers can improve representation of herbaceous ecosystem processes within models. In so doing, we will greatly enhance our ability to forecast future states of the earth system, which is of high importance given the rapid rate of environmental change on our planet.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Improving net ecosystem CO2 flux prediction using memory-based interpretable machine learning

Terrestrial ecosystems play a central role in the global carbon cycle and affect climate change. However, our predictive understanding of these systems is still limited due to their complexity and uncertainty about how key drivers and their legacy effects influence carbon fluxes. Here, we propose an interpretable Long Short-Term Memory (iLSTM) network for predicting net ecosystem CO 2 exchange (NEE) and interpreting the influence on the NEE prediction from environmental drivers and their memory effects. We consider five drivers and apply the method to three forest sites in the United States. Besides performing the prediction in each site, we also conduct transfer learning by using the iLSTM model trained in one site to predict at other sites. Results show that the iLSTM model produces good NEE predictions for all three sites and, more importantly, it provides reasonable interpretations on the input driver's importance as well as their temporal importance on the NEE prediction. Additionally, the iLSTM model demonstrates good across-site transferability in terms of both prediction accuracy and interpretability. The transferability can improve the NEE prediction in unobserved forest sites, and the interpretability advances our predictive understanding and guides process-based model development.

Liu, Siyan↗