Engineering topics

Urban, Nathan Mark

Publications and source records attributed to Urban, Nathan Mark.

3 records

DOE OSTI2022

Fast Gaussian Process Estimation for Large-Scale In Situ Inference using Convolutional Neural Networks

Exascale computing will bring with it significant I/O limitations. One foreseeable consequence of such restrictions is that the user can save only a small fraction of complex simulation data to disk for subsequent analysis. An alternative is to fit statistical models to data in situ, that is, inside the simulation as it runs. This option requires extremely fast statistical estimation to avoid slowing down the simulation. Gaussian processes (GPs) have state-of-the-art predictive performance for modeling spatial data. However, standard estimation methods for GPs scale quite poorly to large data sets as parameter estimation requires inverting a covariance matrix to the size of the data set. In the presented work, we use a convolutional neural network (CNN) to predict the GP parameters for a spatial data set, from a simulation or otherwise, rather than optimize the parameters directly. Here, our presented case study models spatial data from E3SM, the Department of Energy’s Exascale climate model. The CNN is trained on synthetic data simulated from GP models with known parameters and then applied to data from the climate simulation. In the presented examples, the neural network scheme produces parameter estimates that compare well with standard methods such as maximum likelihood estimation in predictive performance but is obtained four orders of magnitude faster.

big data↗

DOE OSTI2021

Differentiable programming for online training of a neural artificial viscosity function within a staggered grid Lagrangian hydrodynamics scheme

Lagrangian methods to solve the inviscid Euler equations produce numerical oscillations near shock waves. A common approach to reducing these oscillations is to add artificial viscosity (AV) to the discrete equations. The AV term acts as a dissipative mechanism that attenuates oscillations by smearing the shock across a finite number of computational cells. However, AV introduces several control parameters that are not determined by the underlying physical model, and hence, in practice are tuned to the characteristics of a given problem. We seek to improve the standard quadratic-linear AV form by replacing it with a learned neural function that reduces oscillations relative to exact solutions of the Euler equations, resulting in a hybrid numerical-neural hydrodynamic solver. Because AV is an artificial construct that exists solely to improve the numerical properties of a hydrodynamic code, there is no offline ‘viscosity data’ against which a neural network can be trained before inserting into a numerical simulation, thus requiring online training. We achieve this via differentiable programming, i.e. end-to-end backpropagation or adjoint solution through both the neural and differential equation code, using automatic differentiation of the hybrid code in the Julia programming language to calculate the necessary loss function gradients. A novel offline pre-training step accelerates training by initializing the neural network to the default numerical AV scheme, which can be learned rapidly by space-filling sampling over the AV input space. We find that online training over early time steps of simulation is sufficient to learn a neural AV function that reduces numerical oscillations in long-term hydrodynamic shock simulations. These results offer an early proof-of-principle that online differentiable training of hybrid numerical schemes with novel neural network components can improve certain performance aspects existing in purely numerical schemes.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Bayesian Approach to Regional Decadal Predictability: Sparse Parameter Estimation in High-Dimensional Linear Inverse Models of High-Latitude Sea Surface Temperature Variability

Stochastic reduced models are an important tool in climate systems whose many spatial and temporal scales cannot be fully discretized or underlying physics may not be fully accounted for. One form of reduced model, the linear inverse model (LIM), has been widely used for regional climate predictability studies—typically focusing more on tropical or midlatitude studies. However, most LIM fitting techniques rely on point estimation techniques deriving from fluctuation–dissipation theory. In this methodological study we explore the use of Bayesian inference techniques for LIM parameter estimation of sea surface temperature (SST), to quantify the skillful decadal predictability of Bayesian LIM models at high latitudes. We show that Bayesian methods, when compared to traditional point estimation methods for LIM-type models, provide better calibrated probabilistic skill, while simultaneously providing better point estimates due to the regularization effect of the prior distribution in high-dimensional problems. We compare the effect of several priors, as well as maximum likelihood estimates, on 1) estimating parameter values on a perfect model experiment and 2) producing calibrated 1-yr SST anomaly forecast distributions using a preindustrial control run of the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Finally, we employ a host of probabilistic skill metrics to determine the extent to which an LIM can forecast SST anomalies at high latitudes. We find that the choice of prior distribution has an appreciable impact on estimation outcomes, and priors that emphasize physically relevant properties enhance the model’s ability to capture variability of SST anomalies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗