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Tucker, Compton J.

Publications and source records attributed to Tucker, Compton J..

At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2011

Climate Change, Extreme Weather Events, and Fungal Disease Emergence and Spread

Empirical evidence from multiple sources show the Earth has been warming since the late 19th century. More recently, evidence for this warming trend is strongly supported by satellite data since the late 1970s from the cryosphere, atmosphere, oceans, and land that confirms increasing temperature trends and their consequences (e.g., reduced Arctic sea ice, rising sea level, ice sheet mass loss, etc.). At the same time, satellite observations of the Sun show remarkably stable solar cycles since the late 1970s, when direct observations of the Sun's total solar irradiance began. Numerical simulation models, driven in part by assimilated satellite data, suggest that future-warming trends will lead to not only a warmer planet, but also a wetter and drier climate depending upon location in a fashion consistent with large-scale atmospheric processes. Continued global warming poses new opportunities for the emergence and spread of fungal disease, as climate systems change at regional and global scales, and as animal and plant species move into new niches. Our contribution to this proceedings is organized thus: First, we review empirical evidence for a warming Earth. Second, we show the Sun is not responsible for the observed warming. Third, we review numerical simulation modeling results that project these trends into the future, describing the projected abiotic environment of our planet in the next 40 to 50 years. Fourth, we illustrate how Rift Valley fever outbreaks have been linked to climate, enabling a better understanding of the dynamics of these diseases, and how this has led to the development of an operational predictive outbreak model for this disease in Africa. Fifth, We project how this experience may be applicable to predicting outbreaks of fungal pathogens in a warming world. Lastly, we describe an example of changing species ranges due to climate change, resulting from recent warming in the Andes and associated glacier melt that has enabled amphibians to colonize higher elevation lakes, only to be followed shortly by the emergence of fungal disease in the new habitats.

Tucker, Compton J.↗
NASA NTRS2009

The First Prediction of a Rift Valley Fever Outbreak

El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related anomalies were analyzed using a combination of satellite measurements of elevated sea surface temperatures, and subsequent elevated rainfall and satellite derived normalized difference vegetation index data. A Rift Valley fever risk mapping model using these climate data predicted areas where outbreaks of Rift Valley fever in humans and animals were expected and occurred in the Horn of Africa from December 2006 to May 2007. The predictions were subsequently confirmed by entomological and epidemiological field investigations of virus activity in the areas identified as at risk. Accurate spatial and temporal predictions of disease activity, as it occurred first in southern Somalia and then through much of Kenya before affecting northern Tanzania, provided a 2 to 6 week period of warning for the Horn of Africa that facilitated disease outbreak response and mitigation activities. This is the first prospective prediction of a Rift Valley fever outbreak.

Anyamba, Assaf↗
NASA NTRS2007

Global Warming - Are We on Thin Ice?

The evidence for global warming is very conclusive for the past 400-500 years. Prior to the 16th century, proxy surface temperature data are regionally good but lack a global distribution. The speaker will review surface temperature reconstruction based upon ice cores, coral cores, tree rings, deep sea sediments, and bore holes and discuss the controversy surrounding global warming. This will be contrasted with the excellent data we have from the satellite era of earth observations the past 30+ years that enables the quantitative study of climate across earth science disciplines.

Tucker, Compton J.↗
NASA NTRS2007

North American Vegetation Dynamics Observed with Multi-Resolution Satellite Data

North American vegetation has been discovered to be a net carbon sink, with atypical behavior of drawing down more carbon from the atmosphere during the past century. It has been suggested that the Northern Hemisphere will respond favorably to climate warming by enhancing productivity and reducing the impact of fossil fuel emissions into the atmosphere. Many investigations are currently underway to understand and identify mechanisms of storage so they might be actively managed to offset carbon emissions which have detrimental consequences to the functioning of ecosystems and human well being. This paper used a time series of satellite data from multiple sensors at multiple resolutions over the past thlrty years to identify and understand mechanisms of change to vegetation productivity throughout North America. We found that humans had a marked impact to vegetation growth in half of the six selected study regions which cover greater than two million km2. We found climatic influences of increasing temperatures, and longer growing seasons with reduced snow cover in the northern regions of North America with forest fire recovery in the Northern coniferous forests of Canada. The Mid-latitudes had more direct land cover changes induced by humans coupled with climatic influences such as severe drought and altered production strategies of rain-fed agriculture in the upper Midwest, expansion of irrigated agriculture in the lower Midwest, and insect outbreaks followed by subsequent logging in the upper Northeast. Vegetation growth over long time periods (20+ years) in North America appears to be associated with long term climate change but most of the marked changes appear to be associated with climate variability on decadal and shorter time scales along with direct human land cover conversions. Our results document regional land cover land use change and climatic influences that have altered continental scale vegetation dynamics in North America.

Neigh, Christopher S. R.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Satellite Detection of Ebola River Hemorrhagic Fever Epidemics Trigger Events

Ebola hemorrhagic fever, named after the Ebola River in Central Africa, first appeared in June 1976, during an outbreak in Nzara and Maridi, Sudan. In September 1976, a separate outbreak was recognized in Yambuku, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). One fatal case was identified in Tandala, DRC, in June 1977, followed by another outbreak in Nzara, Sudan, in July 1979. Ebola hemorrhagic fever outbreaks results in a very high mortality of patients who contract the disease: from 50 to 80% of infected people perish from this highly virulent disease. Death is gruesome, with those afflicted bleeding to death from massive hemorrhaging of organs and capillaries. The disease was not identified again until the end of 1994, when three outbreaks occurred almost simultaneously in Africa. In October, an outbreak was identified in a chimpanzee community studied by primatologists in Tal, Cote d'lvoire, with one human infection. The following month, multiple cases were reported in northeast Gabon in the gold panning camps of Mekouka, Andock, and Minkebe. Later that same month, the putative index case of the 1995 Kikwit, DRC, outbreak was exposed through an unknown mechanism while working in a charcoal pit. In Gabon, two additional outbreaks were reported in February and JuIy,1996, respectively, in Mayibout II, a village 40 km south of the original outbreak in the gold panning camps, and a logging camp between Ovan and Koumameyong, near Booue. The largest Ebola hemorrhagic fever epidemic occurred in Gulu District, Uganda from August 2000 to January 2001. In December 2001, Ebola reappeared in the Ogooue-lvindo Province, Gabon with extension into Mbomo District, The Republic of the Congo lasting until July 2002. Since 2002 there have been several outbreaks of Ebola hemorrhagic fever in Gabon and adjacent areas of Congo. Of interest is the seasonal context and occasional temporal clustering of Ebola hemorrhagic fever outbreaks. Near simultaneous appearances of Ebola epidemics in Nzara, Sudan and Yambuku, DRC in 1976 occurred within two months of each other in two geographic locations separated by hundreds of kilometers involving two separate viral strains (Sudan and Zaire EBO strains). The outbreaks of Tal, Cote d'lvoire; Mekouka, Gabon; and Kikwit, DRC in late 1994 also occurred within months of each other in three different geographic regions involving two different viral strains (Cote d'lvoire and Zaire EBO strains). Fifteen years passed between the 1976-9 and 1994-6 temporal clusters of Ebola cases without identification of additional cases.

Tucker, Compton J.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Trigger events: enviroclimatic coupling of Ebola hemorrhagic fever outbreaks

We use spatially continuous satellite data as a correlate of precipitation within tropical Africa and show that the majority of documented Ebola hemorrhagic fever outbreaks were closely associated with sharply drier conditions at the end of the rainy season. We propose that these trigger events may enhance transmission of Ebola virus from its cryptic reservoir to humans. These findings suggest specific directions to help understand the sylvatic cycle of the virus and may provide early warning tools to detect possible future outbreaks of this enigmatic disease.

Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola/epidemiology/etiology↗
NASA NTRS2003

The Forest, The Fly, and the Virus?

All known outbreaks of Ebola have been linked to tropical forests. We undertook a study of environmental conditions associated with Ebola hemorrhagic fever after preliminary reports strongly suggested that simultaneous outbreaks occurred, during two limited time periods in the 1970s and 1990s, immediately following sudden transitions between dry and wet seasons.

Tucker, Compton J.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Tropical Deforestation in the Bolivian Amazon

Landsat satellite images from the mid-1980s and early 1990s were used to map tropical forest extent and deforestation in approximately 800,000 sq km of Amazonian Bolivia. Forest cover extent, including tropical deciduous forest, totalled 472,000 sq km while the area of natural non-forest formations totalled 298,000 sq km. The area deforested totalled 15,000 sq km in the middle 1980s and 28,800 sq km by the early 1990s. The rate of tropical deforestation in the >1,000 mm/y precipitation forest zone of Bolivia was 2,200 sq km/y from 1985-1986 to 1992-1994. We document a spatially-concentrated "deforestation zone" in Santa Cruz Department where >60% of the Bolivian deforestation is occurring at an accelerating rate in areas of tropical deciduous dry forest.

Tucker, Compton J.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Expansion/Contraction of the Sahara from 1980 to 1997

Satellite data and ground rainfall measurements have been used to study variations in the size of the Sahara Desert from 1980 to 1997. Through a combination of the satellite and ground data, the 200 mm/yr precipitation boundary was mapped for the Saharan-Sahelian region by year. Although highly significant year-to-year variation in the size of the Sahara Desert has occurred, no systematically increasing or decreasing trend from 1980 to 1997 was evident. The area of the Sahara Desert varied from 9,980,000 sq km in 1984 to 8,600,000 sq km in 1994 and had an average area of 9,150,000 sq km from 1980 to 1997.

Tucker, Compton J.↗
NASA NTRS1998

GCM Studies on the Interactions Between Photosynthesis and Climate at Diurnal to Decadal Time Scales

Transpiration, a major component of total evaporation from vegetated surfaces, is an unavoidable consequence of photosynthetic carbon fixation. Because of limiting soil moisture and competition for solar radiation plants invest most of their fixed carbon into structural and hydraulic functions (roots and stems) and solar radiation absorption (leaves). These investments permit individuals to overshadow competitors and provide for transport of water from the soil to the leaves where photosynthesis and transpiration occur. Often low soil moisture or high evaporative demand limit the supply of water to leaves reducing photosynthesis and thus transpiration. The absorption of solar radiation for photosynthesis and dissipation of this energy via radiation, heat, mass and momentum fluxes represents the link between photosynthesis and climate. Recognition of these relationships has led to the development of hydro/energy balance models that are based on the physiological ecology of photosynthesis. We discuss an approach to study vegetation-climate interactions using photosynthesis-centric models embedded in a GCM. The rate at which a vegetated area transpires and photosynthesizes is determined by the physiological state of the vegetation, its amount and its type. The latter two are specified from global satellite data collected since 1982. Climate simulations have been carried out to study how this simulated climate system responds to changes in radiative forcing, physiological capacity, atmospheric CO2, vegetation type and variable vegetation cover observed from satellites during the 1980's. Results from these studies reveal significant feedbacks between the vegetation activity and climate. For example, vegetation cover and physiological activity increases cause the total latent heat flux and precipitation to increase while mean and maximum air temperatures decrease. The reverse occurs if cover or activity'decreases. In general climate response of a particular region was dominated by local processes but we also find evidence that plausible climate-vegetation scenarios lead to changes in global atmospheric circulation and strong non-local influences in some cases.

Collatz, G. James↗
NASA NTRS1996

Monitoring Forest Regrowth Using a Multi-Platform Time Series

Over the past 50 years, the forests of western Washington and Oregon have been extensively harvested for timber. This has resulted in a heterogeneous mosaic of remaining mature forests, clear-cuts, new plantations, and second-growth stands that now occur in areas that formerly were dominated by extensive old-growth forests and younger forests resulting from fire disturbance. Traditionally, determination of seral stage and stand condition have been made using aerial photography and spot field observations, a methodology that is not only time- and resource-intensive, but falls short of providing current information on a regional scale. These limitations may be solved, in part, through the use of multispectral images which can cover large areas at spatial resolutions in the order of tens of meters. The use of multiple images comprising a time series potentially can be used to monitor land use (e.g. cutting and replanting), and to observe natural processes such as regeneration, maturation and phenologic change. These processes are more likely to be spectrally observed in a time series composed of images taken during different seasons over a long period of time. Therefore, for many areas, it may be necessary to use a variety of images taken with different imaging systems. A common framework for interpretation is needed that reduces topographic, atmospheric, instrumental, effects as well as differences in lighting geometry between images. The present state of remote-sensing technology in general use does not realize the full potential of the multispectral data in areas of high topographic relief. For example, the primary method for analyzing images of forested landscapes in the Northwest has been with statistical classifiers (e.g. parallelepiped, nearest-neighbor, maximum likelihood, etc.), often applied to uncalibrated multispectral data. Although this approach has produced useful information from individual images in some areas, landcover classes defined by these techniques typically are not consistent for the same scene imaged under different illumination conditions, especially in the mountainous regions. In addition, it is difficult to correct for atmospheric and instrumental differences between multiple scenes in a time series. In this paper, we present an approach for monitoring forest cutting/regrowth in a semi-mountainous portion of the southern Gifford Pinchot National Forest using a multisensor-time series composed of MSS, TM, and AVIRIS images.

Sabol, Donald E., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1995

AVIRIS spectral trajectories for forested areas of the Gifford Pinchot National Forest

A simple mixing model employing reference endmembers (green vegetation, non-photosynthetic vegetation, soil and shade), and using 180 AVIRIS bands, was used to establish an interpretive framework for a forested area in the Pacific Northwest. A regrowth trend, based on changes in the endmember proportions, was defined for conifers that extends from clearcuts to mature forest, and by implication to old growth. Deciduous species within replanted forest plots caused the fractions to be displaced from the main coniferous regrowth trend and to move toward the green vegetation fraction. The results indicate that the spectral information in AVIRIS can be inverted to estimate approximate stand age and relative proportion of deciduous species in the context of the area studied. Using AVIRIS we measured a 3 to 5 percent increase in woody material in old-growth forest, as distinct from other mature forest. This result is consistent with a predicted increase in NPV in old-growth forest, based on field observations. Previous application of the mixing analysis to a TM image of the same area separated old growth based solely on the shade fraction; however the approach required successful removal of shade introduced by topography. Our new results suggest that with the high spectral resolution and high signal-to-noise of AVIRIS images it may be possible to characterize and map old-growth forests in the Northwest using both the NPV fraction and shade.

Sabol, Donald E., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Expansion and contraction of the Sahara Desert from 1980 to 1990

Data from polar-orbiting meteorological satellites have been used to determine the extent of the Sahara Desert and to document its interannual variation from 1980 to 1990. The Sahara Desert ranged from 8,633,000 square kilometers in 1980 to 9,982,000 square kilometers in 1984. The greatest annual north-south latitudinal movement of the southern Saharan boundary was 110 kilometers from 1984 to 1985 and resulted in a decrease in desert area of 724,000 square kilometers.

Tucker, Compton J.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Remote sensing of biomass burning associated with deforestation

A method based on remote sensing of one emitted product - particulates is developed for the global assessment of trace gases and particulates emission from tropical biomass burning. According to the method, the detected mass of emitted particulates is converted into a mass of emitted trace gases using published relations between the emitted particulates and trace gases for the flaming and smoldering phases. Through an analysis of the 1987 burning season in Brazil during the three months of the dry season, it is shown that there are up to 8000 fires a day each contributing 4500 tons of CO(2), 750 tons of CO, and 26 tons of CH(4) to the atmosphere. A comparison to the estimates of global emissions is also presented.

Kaufman, Yoram J.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Comparing SMMR and AVHRR data for drought monitoring

Coincident Scanning Microwave Multi-channel Radiometer 37 GHz and Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer normalized difference vegetation index satellite data have been compared from drought-affected regions of sub-Saharan Africa and northeastern Brazil for the time period of 1980-1985. Although the two satellite data types can be highly correlated, differences between them were found for the Sahel zone in 1985 and for northeastern Brazil from 1984-1985. These findings suggest that scattering or surface roughness contributions may be greater than previously assumed for the 37 GHz microwave data.

Tucker, Compton J.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Remote sensing of biomass burning in the tropics

A technique for assessing the effects of biomass burning on the climate is described. This method is based on the analysis of remote sensing data for the emitted particulates. The relationship between particulates and trace gases is studied. The assessment technique is applied to the 1987 burning season in Brazil. It is noted that during the dry season there may be up to 5000 fires per day which emit 200 ton/hr CO2, 20 ton/hr CO, and 0.5 ton/hr of CH4 to the atmosphere.

Kaufman, Yoram J.↗