High speed solar wind streams cause geomagnetic activity at Earth. In this study we have applied a wavelet interactive filtering and reconstruction technique on the solar wind magnetic field components and AE index series to allowed us to investigate the relationship between the two. The IMF Bz component was found as the most significant solar wind parameter responsible by the control of the AE activity. Assuming magnetic reconnection associated to southward directed Bz is the main mechanism transferring energy into the magnetosphere, we adjust parameters to forecast the AE index. The adjusted routine is able to forecast AE, based only on the Bz measured at the L1 Lagrangian point. This gives a prediction approximately 30-70 minutes in advance of the actual geomagnetic activity. The correlation coefficient between the observed AE data and the forecasted series reached values higher than 0.90. In some cases the forecast reproduced particularities observed in the signal very well.The high correlation values observed and the high efficacy of the forecasting can be taken as a confirmation that reconnection is the main physical mechanism responsible for the energy transfer during HILDCAAs. The study also shows that the IMF Bz component low frequencies are most important for AE prediction.

Space weather↗

NASA NTRS2013

Uplift of Ionospheric Oxygen Ions During Extreme Magnetic Storms

Research reported earlier in literature was conducted relating to estimation of the ionospheric electrical field, which may have occurred during the September 1859 Carrington geomagnetic storm event, with regard to modern-day consequences. In this research, the NRL SAMI2 ionospheric code has been modified and applied the estimated electric field to the dayside ionosphere. The modeling was done at 15-minute time increments to track the general ionospheric changes. Although it has been known that magnetospheric electric fields get down into the ionosphere, it has been only in the last ten years that scientists have discovered that intense magnetic storm electric fields do also. On the dayside, these dawn-to-dusk directed electric fields lift the plasma (electrons and ions) up to higher altitudes and latitudes. As plasma is removed from lower altitudes, solar UV creates new plasma, so the total plasma in the ionosphere is increased several-fold. Thus, this complex process creates super-dense plasmas at high altitudes (from 700 to 1,000 km and higher).

Tsurutani, Bruce T.↗