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Sze, Nien Dak

Publications and source records attributed to Sze, Nien Dak.

Global Simulation of Atmospheric Mercury Concentrations and Deposition Fluxes

Results from a numerical model of the global emissions, transport, chemistry, and deposition of mercury (Hg) in the atmosphere are presented. Hg (in the form of Hg(O) and Hg(II)) is emitted into the atmosphere from natural and anthropogenic sources (estimated to be 4000 and 2100 Mg/ yr, respectively). It is distributed between gaseous, aqueous and particulate phases. Removal of Hg from the atmosphere occurs via dry deposition and wet deposition, which are calculated by the model to be 3300 and 2800 Mg/ yr, respectively. Deposition on land surfaces accounts for 47% of total global deposition. The simulated Hg ambient surface concentrations and deposition fluxes to the Earth's surface are consistent with available observations. Observed spatial and seasonal trends are reproduced by the model, although larger spatial variations are observed in Hg(O) surface concentrations than are predicted by the model. The calculated atmospheric residence time of Hg is -1.7 years. Chemical transformations between Hg(O) and HG(II) have a strong influence on Hg deposition patterns because HG(II) is removed faster than Hg(O). Oxidation of Hg(O) to HG(II) occurs primarily in the gas phase, whereas HG(II) reduction to Hg(O) occurs solely in the aqueous phase. Our model results indicated that in the absence of the aqueous reactions the atmospheric residence time of Hg is reduced to 1.2 from 1.7 years and the Hg surface concentration is -25% lower because of the absence of the HG(II) reduction pathway. This result suggests that aqueous chemistry is an essential component of the atmospheric cycling of Hg.

Shia, Run-Lie

Ozone Depletion Potential of CH3Br

The ozone depletion potential (ODP) of methyl bromide (CH3Br) can be determined by combining the model-calculated bromine efficiency factor (BEF) for CH3Br and its atmospheric lifetime. This paper examines how changes in several key kinetic data affect BEF. The key reactions highlighted in this study include the reaction of BrO + H02, the absorption cross section of HOBr, the absorption cross section and the photolysis products of BrON02, and the heterogeneous conversion of BrON02 to HOBR and HN03 on aerosol particles. By combining the calculated BEF with the latest estimate of 0.7 year for the atmospheric lifetime of CH3Br, the likely value of ODP for CH3Br is 0.39. The model-calculated concentration of HBr (approximately 0.3 pptv) in the lower stratosphere is substantially smaller than the reported measured value of about I pptv. Recent publications suggested models can reproduce the measured value if one assumes a yield for HBr from the reaction of BrO + OH or from the reaction of BrO + H02. Although the DeAlore et al. evaluation concluded any substantial yield of HBr from BrO + HO2 is unlikely, for completeness, we calculate the effects of these assumed yields on BEF for CH3Br. Our calculations show that the effects are minimal: practically no impact for an assumed 1.3% yield of HBr from BrO + OH and 10% smaller for an assumed 0.6% yield from BrO + H02.

Sander, Stanley P.

Ozone Depletion Potential of CH3Br

The ozone depletion potential (ODP) of methyl bromide (CH3Br) can be determined by combining the model-calculated bromine efficiency factor (BEF) for CH3Br and its atmospheric lifetime. This paper examines how changes in several key kinetic data affect BEF. The key reactions highlighted in this study include the reaction of BrO + HO2, the absorption cross section of HOBr, the absorption cross section and the photolysis products of BrONO2, and the heterogeneous conversion of BrONO2 to HOBr and HNO3 on aerosol particles. By combining the calculated BEF with the latest estimate of 0.7 year for the atmospheric lifetime of CH3Br, the likely value of ODP for CH3Br is 0.39. The model-calculated concentration of HBr (approx. 0.3 pptv) in the lower stratosphere is substantially smaller than the reported measured value of about 1 pptv. Recent publications suggested models can reproduce the measured value if one assumes a yield for HBr from the reaction of BrO + OH or from the reaction of BrO + HO2. Although the evaluation concluded any substantial yield of HBr from BrO + HO2 is unlikely, for completeness, we calculate the effects of these assumed yields on BEF for CH3Br. Our calculations show that the effects are minimal: practically no impact for an assumed 1.3% yield of HBr from BrO + OH and 10% smaller for an assumed 0.6% yield from BrO + HO2.

Ko, Malcolm K. W.

Coupling Processes between Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate

This is the fourth semi-annual report for NAS5-97039, covering the time period July through December 1998. The overall objective of this project is to improve the understanding of coupling processes between atmospheric chemistry and climate. Model predictions of the future distributions of trace gases in the atmosphere constitute an important component of the input necessary for quantitative assessments of global change. We will concentrate on the changes in ozone and stratospheric sulfate aerosol, with emphasis on how ozone in the lower stratosphere would respond to natural or anthropogenic changes. The key modeling tools for this work are the Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER) two-dimensional chemistry-transport model, the AER two-dimensional stratospheric sulfate model, and the AER three-wave interactive model with full chemistry. For this six month period, we report on a modeling study of new rate constant which modify the NOx/NOy ratio in the lower stratosphere; sensitivity to changes in stratospheric water vapor in the future atmosphere; a study of N2O and CH4 observations which has allowed us to adjust diffusion in the 2-D CTM in order to obtain appropriate polar vortex isolation; a study of SF6 and age of air with comparisons of models and measurements; and a report on the Models and Measurements II effort.

Ko, Malcolm K. W.

Atmospheric Sulfur Hexafluoride: Sources, Sinks and Greenhouse Warming

Model calculations using estimated reaction rates of sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) with OH and 0('D) indicate that the atmospheric lifetime due to these processes may be very long (25,000 years). An upper limit for the UV cross section would suggest a photolysis lifetime much longer than 1000 years. The possibility of other removal mechanisms are discussed. The estimated lifetimes are consistent with other estimated values based on recent laboratory measurements. There appears to be no known natural source of SF6. An estimate of the current production rate of SF6 is about 5 kt/yr. Based on historical emission rates, we calculated a present-day atmospheric concentrations for SF6 of about 2.5 parts per trillion by volume (pptv) and compared the results with available atmospheric measurements. It is difficult to estimate the atmospheric lifetime of SF6 based on mass balance of the emission rate and observed abundance. There are large uncertainties concerning what portion of the SF6 is released to the atmosphere. Even if the emission rate were precisely known, it would be difficult to distinguish among lifetimes longer than 100 years since the current abundance of SF6 is due to emission in the past three decades. More information on the measured trends over the past decade and observed vertical and latitudinal distributions of SF6 in the lower stratosphere will help to narrow the uncertainty in the lifetime. Based on laboratory-measured IR absorption cross section for SF6, we showed that SF6 is about 3 times more effective as a greenhouse gas compared to CFC 11 on a per molecule basis. However, its effect on atmospheric warming will be minimal because of its very small concentration. We estimated the future concentration of SF6 at 2010 to be 8 and 10 pptv based on two projected emission scenarios. The corresponding equilibrium warming of 0.0035 C and 0.0043 C is to be compared with the estimated warming due to CO2 increase of about 0.8 C in the same period.

Sze, Nien Dak

Use of satellite data to constrain the model-calculated atmospheric lifetime for N2O - Implications for other trace gases

Model calculations of the zonal-mean concentrations of N2O in the upper stratosphere are presented showing that about 80 percent of N2O is removed in the stratosphere between 30 deg N and 30 deg S. A comparison of calculated N2O values with remote data on N2O concentrations obtained from Nimbus 7 SAMS instrument indicated that the two-dimensional model of Ko and Sze (1982) may have underestimated the concentration of N2O in the tropical lower stratosphere. It is concluded that the calculated lifetimes for N2O and chlorofluorocarbon-source gases could be 30 percent shorter than previously reported values.

Ko, Malcolm K. W.

Atmospheric trace gases and global climate - A seasonal model study

Atmospheric models with seasonal cycles are used to study the possible near-future changes in latitudinal and vertical distributions of atmospheric ozone and temperature caused by increases of trace gases. It is found that increases of CFCs, CH4, and N2O may add to the surface warming from increased CO2. Calculations based on projected trends of CO2, N2O, CH4, and CFCs show that the annual mean and global mean surface temperature could warm by as much as 2.5 C by the year 2050, with larger warming at high latitudes. The results suggest that the warming in the lower stratosphere and upper troposphere is much larger than that at the surface, especially during the summer season.

Wang, Wei-Chyung

The role of chlorine chemistry in Antarctic ozone loss - Implications of new kinetic data

New kinetic data yielding a slower formation rate and larger absorption cross sections of Cl2O2 are incorporated into a photochemical model to reassess the role of chlorine chemistry in accounting for the ozone reductions derived from TOMS observations in different regions of the Antarctic polar vortex during 1987. The model is further constrained by existing measurements from the Airborne Antarctic Ozone Experiment and the National Ozone Expedition II. Calculated concentrations of ClO based on the new kinetic data increase by almost a factor of two between the collar and core regions of the vortex during the second half of September. The calculated ozone reductions in the vortex core appear to be consistent with the TOMS observations in spite of the slower rate for the self-reaction of ClO.

Rodriguez, Jose M.

An evaluation of the role of eddy diffusion in stratospheric interactive two-dimensional models

An interactive two-dimensional model of the stratosphere, consisting of a primitive equation dynamics module, a simplified HO(x) ozone model, and a full radiative transfer scheme, is used to study the effect of eddy diffusion in the model. Consideration is given to the effects of nonlocal forcing from dissipation in the model troposphere and frictional drag at mesospheric levels, mechanical damping in the stratosphere itself, and potential vorticity flux due to large scale waves. It is found that the ozone distributions generated with the model are very sensitive to the choice of values for the friction and the eddy diffusion coefficients. It is shown that reasonable latitudinal gradients of ozone may be obtained by using small values for the mechanical damping for the mid- and high-latitude stratopsphere.

Schneider, Hans R.

Antarctic chlorine chemistry - Possible global implications

Occurrence of heterogeneous reactions on the surface of polar stratospheric clouds (PSC) is a necessary component of the Cl-related chemical mechanisms proposed to explain the recently observed decrease of O3 during Antarctic spring. A one-dimensional model is used to assess the impact of these heterogeneous reactions on future global O3 trends if they were to occur on the global aerosol layer. The impact of these reactions on the concentration of Cl species in the present-day atmosphere is also calculated. The reaction (ClNO3 + HCl) could have a large impact on stratospheric O3. A fast rate for this reaction would greatly enhance the present concentration of ClO and reduce the abundance of HCl in the lower stratosphere. Because of the large differences between the Antarctic and global environments, the calculated global O3 trends are smaller than those calculated for Antarctica.

Rodriguez, Jose M.

Chlorine chemistry in the Antarctic stratosphere - Impact of OClO and Cl2O2 and implications for observations

Theories have been proposed to relate the reduction of O3 during Antarctic spring to catalytic cycles involving chlorine and bromine species. A necessary condition for any chlorine-catalyzed scheme is that a large fraction of the chlorine must be in the form of ClO in the lower stratosphere. It has been suggested that these high levels of ClO could be maintained by fast heterogeneous reactions, whose rates are not known at present. Model calculations based on the above mechanisms predict considerable amounts of OClO and Cl2O2, particularly during the night. Results of calculations of the diurnal variations of ClO, OClO, and Cl2O2 during Antarctic spring are presented for different cases. Results from the calculations suggest that coincident measurements of the total column abundance and diurnal variation of ClO and OClO may help constrain key aspects of the proposed chemical mechanisms. Removal of O3 by the catalytic cycle involving Cl2O2 could be as important as that involving BrO for present levels of chlorine, provided that Cl2O2 photolyzes rapidly to yield Cl and ClO2. It is shown that there is no synergy between these two cycles, since they both compete for the available ClO.

Rodriguez, Jose M.