Engineering Papers⌕ Search

Engineering topics

Swinbank, R.

Publications and source records attributed to Swinbank, R..

17 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1999

Simulation of the December 1998 Stratospheric Major Warming

Prior to 1991, major warmings (defined by increasing zonal mean temperatures and zonal mean easterly winds from 60degN to the pole at 10 hPa) typically occurred approximately once every two Arctic winters; a major warming in mid-Dec. 1998 was the first since Feb. 1991. The Dec. 1998 warming was also the second earliest on record. The earliest, and the only other major warming on record before the end of Dec. was in early Dec 1987; prior to that, the earliest was in late Dec./early Jan. 1984-85. The 1984-85 and 1987 warmings resulted in the warmest and weakest lower stratospheric polar vortices in the 20 years before 1998-99. Fig. 1 compares temperatures and vortex strength in 1998-99 with those in the previous 20 years, using the US National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) record; 1987-88 and 1984-85 are also highlighted. The Dec. 1998 warming had a more pronounced effect on mid-stratospheric temperatures than the Dec. 1987 warming (Fig. 1a), although smaller than that of warmings later in winter (e.g., 1984-85). 10-hPa temperatures fell well below average again in late Jan. 1999 and remained unusually low until an early final warming began in late Feb. 840 K PV gradients (Fig. 1c) set a record minimum in Jan. 1999, but were near average in Feb before the final warming. The effect of the Dec. 1998 warming on lower stratospheric temperatures was comparable to that of other major warmings; there was a brief period of record-high minimum 46-hPa temperatures in early Jan 1999 (Fig. 1b), and temperatures then fell to near average for a short period in mid-Feb. Lower stratospheric PV gradients were the weakest on record during the 1998-99 winter (Fig. 1d). The evolution of the vortex and minimum temperatures during 1998-99 was remarkably similar to that during 1987-88, the only previous year when a major warming was observed before the end of Dec.

Manney, G. L.↗
NASA NTRS1999

The Impact of Anisotropic Error Correlation Modelling

Most data assimilation systems assume isotropic forecast error correlations, but results from two dimensional Kalman Filter experiments indicate that the correlations can be far from isotropic. In this paper we use a simple two-dimensional data assimilation system, which analyses trace chemical species such as ozone, to assess different approaches to modelling the error correlations. We compare assimilation results using isotropic correlations with results obtained using different approaches to modelling anisotropic correlations: first, using correlations based on the concentrations of the trace chemicals, and secondly using an advective correlation model. We show that these relatively cheap ways of modelling anisotropic correlations give objectively better results than using isotropic correlations. We discuss the possible extension of these approaches to a full 3-D meteorological data assimilation system.

Swinbank, R.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Stratospheric Tides and Data Assimilation

In the upper stratosphere, the atmosphere exhibits significant diurnal and semi-diurnal tidal variations, with typical amplitude of about 2K in mid-latitudes. In this paper we examine how well the tidal variations in temperature are represented by the Goddard Geodesic Earth Orbiting Satellite (GEOS-2) data assimilation system. We show that the GEOS-2 atmospheric model is quite successful at simulating the tidal temperature variations. However, the assimilation of satellite temperature soundings significantly damps the simulated tides. The reason is because the tides are not well represented by the satellite retrievals used by the assimilation system (which have a typical tidal amplitude of around 1K). As a result of this study, we suggest improvements that should be made to the treatment of satellite soundings by the assimilation system.

Swinbank, R.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Stratospheric Meteorological Conditions for the 3-12 Nov. 1994 ATMOS/ATLAS-3 Measurements

During the ATLAS-3 mission (3-12 Nov 1994), United Kingdom Meteorological Office fields show that the SH vortex was still strong below about 700 K (approximately 16 hPa), with coherent vortex fragments apparent up to about 1300 K (approximately 3 hPa). The SH vortex was shifted off the pole toward 270 deg E throughout ATLAS-3, although its shape varied from day to day. SH temperatures were increasing during ATLAS-3; temperatures below 188 K were last seen 35-45 days before the mission, but were below 195 K as late as 2 Nov 1994. The NH polar vortex had developed at levels above about 550 K (approximately 35 hPa). Simulated high-resolution potential vorticity (PV) fields clearly show low latitude air being drawn up around the polar vortices in both hemispheres. These fields indicate that meteorological analyses underestimate the amount of atmospheric variability, including the strength of local PV gradients, and small-scale structure. Structure such as that in the simulated fields can result in apparent discrepancies between tracer measurements and PV fields.

Manney, G. L.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Comparison of U.K. Meteorological Office and U.S. National Meteorological Center Stratospheric Analyses During Northern and Southern Winter

Meteorological data from the United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO), produced using a data assimilation system, and the U.S. National Meteorological Center (NMC), produced using an objective analysis procedure, are compared for dynamically active periods during the Arctic and Antarctic winters of 1992. The differences seen during these periods are generally similar to those seen during other winter periods. Both UKMO and NMC analyses capture the large-scale evolution of the stratospheric circulation during northern hemisphere (NH) and southern hemisphere (SH) winters. Stronger vertical and horizontal temperature gradients develop in the UKMO than in the NMC data during stratospheric warmings; comparison with satellite measurements with better vertical resolution suggests that the stronger vertical temperature gradients are more realistic. The NH polar vortex is slightly stronger in the UKMO analyses than in the NMC in the middle and upper stratosphere, and midstratospheric temperatures are slightly lower. The SH polar vortex as represented in the UKMO analyses is stronger and colder in the midstratosphere than its representation in the NMC analyses. The UKMO analyses on occasion exhibit some difficulties in representing cross-polar flow or changes in curvature of the wind field at very high latitudes. In addition to the above study of two wintertime periods, a more detailed comparison of lower-stratospheric temperatures is done for all Arctic and Antarctic winter periods since the launch of the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite. In the NH lower stratosphere during winter, NMC temperatures are consistently lower than UKMO temperatures and closer to radiosonde temperatures than are UKMO temperatures. Conversely, in the SH lower stratosphere during winter, UKMO temperatures are typically lower than NMC and are closer to radiosonde temperature observations.

Manney, G. L.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Lagrangian Transport Calculations Using UARS Data: Ozone - Part 2

Trajectory calculations are used to examine ozone transport in the polar winter stratosphere during periods of the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) observations. The value of these calculations for determining mass transport was demonstrated previously using UARS observations of long-lived tracers, In the middle stratosphere, the overall ozone behavior observed by the Microwave Limb Sounder in the polar vortex is reproduced by this purely dynamical model. Calculations show the evolution of ozone in the lower stratosphere during early winter to be dominated by dynamics in December 1992 in the Arctic. Calculations for June 1992 in the Antarctic show evidence of chemical ozone destruction and indicate that approx. 50% of the chemical destruction may be masked by dynamical effects, mainly diabatic descent, which bring higher ozone into the lower-stratospheric vortex. Estimating differences between calculated and observed fields suggests that dynamical changes masked approx. 20% - 35% of chemical ozone loss during late February and early March 1993 in the Arctic. In the Antarctic late winter, in late August and early September 1992, below approx. 520 K, the evolution of vortex-averaged ozone is entirely dominated by chemical effects; above this level, however, chemical ozone depletion can be partially or completely masked by dynamical effects. Our calculations for 1992 showed that chemical loss was nearly completely compensated by increases due to diabatic descent at 655 K.

Manney, Gloria L.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Comparison of UKMO and NMC Stratospheric Analyses During Northern and Southern Winter

Instruments on board the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite have been measuring stratospheric temperatures, winds, and constituent species since September 1991. Among the correlative data that aid in interpreting this data are two sets of global meteorological analyses. Meteorological data from the United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO), and the US National Meteorological Center (NMC) are discussed.

arctic antarctic atmosphere research satellite met↗
NASA NTRS1994

On the motion of air through the stratospheric polar vortex

Trajectory calculations using horizontal winds from the U.K. Meteorological Office data assimilation system and vertical velocities from a radiation calculation are used to simulate the three-dimensional motion of air through the stratospheric polar vortex for Northern Hemisphere (NH) and Southern Hemisphere (SH) winters since the launch of the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS). Throughout the winter, air from the upper stratosphere moves poleward and descends into the middle stratosphere. In the SH lower to middle stratosphere, strongest descent occurs near the edge of the polar vortex, with that edge defined by mixing characteristics. The NH shows a similar pattern in late winter, but in early winter strongest descent is near the center of the vortex, except when wave activity is particularly strong. Strong barriers to latitudinal mixing exist above about 420 K throughout the winter. Below this, the polar night jet is weak in early winter, so air descending below that level mixes between polar and middle latitudes. In late winter, parcels descend less and the polar night jet moves downward, so there is less latitudinal mixing. The degree of mixing in the lower stratosphere thus depends strongly on the position and evolution of the polar night jet and on the amount of descent experienced by the air parcels; these characteristics show considerable interannual variability in both hemispheres. The computed trajectories provide a three-dimensional picture of air motion during the final warming. Large tongues of air are drawn off the vortex and stretched into increasingly long and narrow tongues extending into low latitudes. This vortex erosion process proceeds more rapidly in the NH than in he SH. In the lower stratosphere, the majority of air parcels remain confined within a lingering region of strong potential vorticity gradients into December in the SH and April in the NH, well after the vortex breaks up in the midstratosphere.

Manney, G. L.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Stratospheric warmings during February and March 1993

Two stratospheric warmings during February and March 1993 are described using United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO) analyses, calculated potential vorticity (PV) and diabetic heating, and N2O observed by the Cryogenic Limb Array Etalon Spectrometer (CLAES) instrument on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS). The first warming affected temperatures over a larger region, while the second produced a larger region of reversed zonal winds. Tilted baroclinic zones formed in the temperature field, and the polar vortex tilted westward with height. Narrow tongues of high PV and low N2O were drawn off the polar vortex, and irreversibly mixed. Tongues of material were drawn from low latitudes into the region between the polar vortex and the anticyclone; diabatic descent was also strongest in this region. Increased N2O over a broad region near the edge of the polar vortex indicates the importance of horizontal transport. N2O decreased in the vortex, consistent with enhanced diabatic descent during the warmings.

Manney, G. L.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Stratospheric Warmings During February and March 1993

Two stratospheric warnings during February and March 1993 are described using UKMO analyses, calculated PV and diabatic heating, and N2O observed by the CLAES instrument on the UARS. The first warming affected temperatures over a larger region. while the second produced a larger region of reversed zonal winds. Tilted baroclinic zones formed in the temperature field, and the polar vortex tilted westward with height. Narrow tongues of high PV and low N2O were drawn off the polar vortex, and irreversibly mixed. Tongues of material were drawn from low latitudes into the region between the polar vortex and the anticyclone; diabatic descent was also strongest in this region. Increased N2O over a broad region near the edge of the polar vortex indicates the importance of horizontal transport. N2O decreased in the vortex, consistent with enhanced diabatic descent during the warmings.

Manney, G. L.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Chemical Depletion of Lower Stratospheric Ozone in the 1992-1993 Northern Winter Vortex

Satellite observations of ozone and chlorine monoxide in the Arctic lower stratosphere during winter 1992-1993 are compared with observations during other winters, observations of long-lived tracers and the evolution of the polar vortex. Chlorine in the lower stratospheric vortex during February 1993 was mostly in chemically reactive forms.

Arctic polar vortex↗
NASA NTRS1994

Lagrangian Transport Calculations Using UARS Data. Part I: Passive Tracers

The transport of passive tracers observed by UARS has been simulated using computed trajectories of thousands of air parcels initialized on a three-dimensional stratospheric grid. These trajectories are calculated in isentropic coordinates using horizontal winds provided by the United Kingdom Meteorological Office data assimilation system and vertical (cross-isentropic) velocities computed using a fast radiation code.

UARS computed trajectories↗