Engineering topics

Suggs, Ronnie J.

Publications and source records attributed to Suggs, Ronnie J..

14 records

NASA NTRS2017

The MSFC Solar Activity Future Estimation (MSAFE) Model

The MSAFE model provides forecasts for the solar indices SSN, F10.7, and Ap. These solar indices are used as inputs to many space environment models used in orbital spacecraft operations and space mission analysis. Forecasts from the MSAFE model are provided on the MSFC Natural Environments Branch's solar webpage and are updated as new monthly observations come available. The MSAFE prediction routine employs a statistical technique that calculates deviations of past solar cycles from the mean cycle and performs a regression analysis to predict the deviation from the mean cycle of the solar index at the next future time interval. The prediction algorithm is applied recursively to produce monthly smoothed solar index values for the remaining of the cycle. The forecasts are initiated for a given cycle after about 8 to 12 months of observations are collected. A forecast made at the beginning of cycle 24 using the MSAFE program captured the cycle fairly well with some difficulty in discerning the double peak that occurred at solar cycle maximum.

Suggs, Ronnie J.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Large Meteoroid Impact on the Moon on 17 March 2013

Since early 2006, NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center has observed over 300 impact flashes on the Moon, produced by meteoroids striking the lunar surface. On 17 March 2013 at 03:50:54.312 UTC, the brightest flash of an 8-year routine observing campaign was observed in two 0.35 m telescopes outfitted with Watec 902H2 Ultimate monochrome CCD cameras recording interleaved 30 fps video. Standard CCD photometric techniques, described in [1], were applied to the video after saturation correction, yielding a peak R magnitude of 3.0 +/- 0.4 in a 1/30 second video exposure. This corresponds to a luminous energy of 7.1 × 10(exp 6) J. Geographic Information System (GIS) tools were used to georeference the lunar impact imagery and yielded a crater location at 20.60 +/- 0.17deg N, 23.92 +/- 0.30deg W. The camera onboard the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO), a NASA spacecraft mapping the Moon from lunar orbit, discovered the fresh crater associated with this impact by comparing post-impact images from 28 July 2013 to pre-impact images on 12 Feb 2012. The images show fresh, bright ejecta around an 18 m diameter circular crater, with a 15 m inner diameter measured from the level of pre-existing terrain, at 20.7135deg N, 24.3302deg W. An asymmetrical ray pattern with both high and low reflectance ejecta zones extends 1-2 km beyond the crater, and a series of mostly low reflectance splotches can be seen within 30 km of the crater - likely due to secondary impacts [2]. The meteoroid impactor responsible for this event may have been part of a stream of large particles encountered by the Earth/Moon associated with the Virginid Meteor Complex, as evidenced by a cluster of 5 fireballs seen in Earth's atmosphere on the same night by the NASA All Sky Fireball Network [3] and the Southern Ontario Meteor Network [4]. Assuming a velocity-dependent luminous efficiency (ratio of luminous energy to kinetic energy) from [5] and an impact velocity of 25.6 km/s derived from fireball measurements, the impactor kinetic energy was 5.4 × 10(exp 9) J and the impactor mass was 16 kg. Assuming an impact angle of 56deg from horizontal (based on fireball orbit measurements), a regolith density of 1500 kg/m(exp 3), and impactor density between 1800 and 3000 kg/m(exp 3), the impact crater diameter was estimated to be 8-18 m at the pre-impact surface and 10-23 m rim-to-rim using the Holsapple [6] and Gault [7] models, a result consistent with the observed crater.

Moser, Danielle E.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Large Meteoroid Impact on the Moon 17 March 2013

NASA's routine monitoring of lunar impact flashes has recorded nearly 300 impacts since 2006. On 17 March 2013 the brightest event to date was observed in two 0.35m telescopes at the Marshall Space Flight Center. With a peak red magnitude brighter than 4.3 and an impact flash visible for over 1 second, the impact kinetic energy was equivalent to nearly 5 tons of TNT. A possible association with a meteor shower observed in the Earth's atmosphere will be described. Corresponding crater dimensions and observability of the impact crater by Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter will also be discussed.

Suggs, Robert M.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Large Meteoroid Impact on the Moon 17 March 2013

Suggs, Robert M.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Lunar Meteoroid Impact Observations and the Flux of Kilogram-sized Meteoroids

Lunar impact monitoring provides useful information about the flux of meteoroids in the tens of grams to kilograms size range. The large collecting area of the night side of the lunar disk, approximately 3.4x10(exp 6) sq km in our camera field-of-view, provides statistically significant counts of the meteoroids. Nearly 200 lunar impacts have been observed by our program in roughly 3.5 years. Photometric calibration of the flashes along with the luminous efficiency (determined using meteor showers1,2,3) and assumed velocities provide their sizes. The asymmetry in the flux on the evening and morning hemispheres of the Moon is compared with sporadic and shower sources to determine their most likely origin. The asymmetry between the two hemispheres seen in Figure 1 is due to the impact rate and not to observational bias. Comparison with other measurements of the large meteoroid fluxes is consistent with these measurements as shown in Figure 2. The flux of meteoroids in this size range has important implications for the near-Earth object population and for impact risk for lunar spacecraft

Suggs, Robert M.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Using Satellite Data in Weather Forecasting: I

The GOES Product Generation System (GPGS) is a set of computer codes and scripts that enable the assimilation of real-time Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) data into regional-weather-forecasting mathematical models. The GPGS can be used to derive such geophysical parameters as land surface temperature, the amount of precipitable water, the degree of cloud cover, the surface albedo, and the amount of insolation from satellite measurements of radiant energy emitted by the Earth and its atmosphere. GPGS incorporates a priori information (initial guesses of thermodynamic parameters of the atmosphere) and radiometric measurements from the geostationary operational environmental satellites along with mathematical models of physical principles that govern the transfer of energy in the atmosphere. GPGS solves the radiative-transfer equation and provides the resulting data products in formats suitable for use by weather-forecasting computer programs. The data-assimilation capability afforded by GPGS offers the potential to improve local weather forecasts ranging from 3 hours to 2 days - especially with respect to temperature, humidity, cloud cover, and the probability of precipitation. The improvements afforded by GPGS could be of interest to news media, utility companies, and other organizations that utilize regional weather forecasts.

Jedlovec, Gary J.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Land Surface Temperature Retrievals from GOES-8 Using Emissivities Retrieved from MODIS

Recent studies at the Global Hydrology and Climate Center (GHCC) have shown that the assimilation of land skin temperature (LST) tendencies into a mesoscale model can significantly improve short-term forecasts of near surface air temperature and moisture. Derived land surface products from the GOES satellites were used in these studies to provide high spatial and temporal resolution information about the spatial and temporal variability of the land surface forcing simulated in the model. In the model assimilation studies, LST was derived using a split window technique using the 11 and 12 pm channels found on the GOES-8 Sounder. These studies used a constant surface emissivity of 0.98 for both channels. However, this emissivity assumption over the land does not take into account emissivity variations due to varying terrain characteristics and differences between channels. These emissivity variations are seen to be significant as indicated by emissivity products from the polar orbiting MODIS instrument channels similar to the GOES-8 Sounder channels mentioned above. MODIS is a key instrument aboard the Terra (EOS AM) and Aqua (EOS PM) satellites. In an attempt to improve the emissivity assumptions used in the GOES Sounder LST retrieval procedure, the incorporation of MODIS high spatial resolution (1 km) emissivity measurements into the LST procedure is being explored. This paper intercompares the LST retrievals from the GOES-8 Sounder using a constant emissivity assumption with those using MODIS retrieved emissivities. The effects of MODIS emissivities on the LST retrievals are discussed. Potential improvements in model forecasts using assimilated LST products incorporating MODIS emissivities are also examined.

Arnold, James E.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Internal Consistency of the NVAP Water Vapor Dataset

The NVAP (NASA Water Vapor Project) dataset is a global dataset at 1 x 1 degree spatial resolution consisting of daily, pentad, and monthly atmospheric precipitable water (PW) products. The analysis blends measurements from the Television and Infrared Operational Satellite (TIROS) Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS), the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I), and radiosonde observations into a daily collage of PW. The original dataset consisted of five years of data from 1988 to 1992. Recent updates have added three additional years (1993-1995) and incorporated procedural and algorithm changes from the original methodology. Since each of the PW sources (TOVS, SSM/I, and radiosonde) do not provide global coverage, each of these sources compliment one another by providing spatial coverage over regions and during times where the other is not available. For this type of spatial and temporal blending to be successful, each of the source components should have similar or compatible accuracies. If this is not the case, regional and time varying biases may be manifested in the NVAP dataset. This study examines the consistency of the NVAP source data by comparing daily collocated TOVS and SSM/I PW retrievals with collocated radiosonde PW observations. The daily PW intercomparisons are performed over the time period of the dataset and for various regions.

Suggs, Ronnie J.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Inter-Comparison of GOES-8 Imager and Sounder Skin Temperature Retrievals

Skin temperature (ST) retrievals derived from geostationary satellite observations have both high temporal and spatial resolutions and are therefore useful for applications such as assimilation into mesoscale forecast models, nowcasting, and diagnostic studies. Our retrieval method uses a Physical Split Window technique requiring at least two channels within the longwave infrared window. On current GOES satellites, including GOES-11, there are two Imager channels within the required spectral interval. However, beginning with the GOES-M satellite the 12-um channel will be removed, leaving only one longwave channel. The Sounder instrument will continue to have three channels within the longwave window, and therefore ST retrievals will be derived from Sounder measurements. This research compares retrievals from the two instruments and evaluates the effects of the spatial resolution and sensor calibration differences on the retrievals. Both Imager and Sounder retrievals are compared to ground-truth data to evaluate the overall accuracy of the technique. An analysis of GOES-8 and GOES-11 intercomparisons is also presented.

Haines, Stephanie L.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Intercomparison of GOES-8 Imager and Sounder Land Surface Temperature Retrievals

Recent studies at the Global Hydrology and Climate Center (GHCC) have shown that the assimilation of land skin temperature (LST) tendencies into a mesoscale model can significantly improve short term forecasts of near surface temperature and moisture. The high spatial and temporal resolution of GOES derived land surface products provide valuable information about the spatial and temporal variability of the land surface forcing simulated in the model. In the GHCC studies LST was derived using a split window technique requiring at least two longwave infrared window channels and thus, utilized the 11 and 12 micron channels found on the GOES-8 Imager with a nadir spatial resolution of 4km. However, beginning with the launch of GOES-M (scheduled for mid 2001 ) and subsequent satellites the 12 micron channel will be removed from the Imager leaving only one longwave window channel. The GOES Sounder will continue to have more than one longwave infrared window channel (including a 12 micron channel) but, with a spatial resolution of 10 km nadir. LST retrievals from the newer GOES satellites will thus be derived from Sounder measurements at a reduced spatial resolution. This paper intercompares the LST retrievals from the GOES-8 Imager and Sounder. The effects on the LST retrievals due to the Sounder's reduced resolution from that of the Imager and its different longwave infrared channel characteristics are examined. The effects of transitioning from Imager to Sounder LST products on the results from model assimilation of these products are also examined.

Suggs, Ronnie J.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Satellite Derived Land Surface Temperature for Model Assimilation

Studies have shown that land surface temperature (LST) tendencies are sensitive to the surface moisture availability which is a function of soil moisture and vegetation. The assimilation of satellite derived LST tendencies into the surface energy budget of mesoscale models has shown promise in improving the representation of the complex effects of both soil moisture and vegetation within the models for short term simulations. LST derived from geostationary satellites has the potential of providing the temporal and spatial resolution needed for an LST assimilation process. This paper presents an analysis comparing the LST derived from GOES-8 infrared measurements with LST calculated by the MM5 numerical model. The satellite derived LSTs are calculated using a physical split window approach using channels 4 and 5 of GOES-8. The differences in the LST data sets, especially the tendencies, are presented and examined. Quantifying the differences between the data sets provide insight of possible weaknesses in the model parameterizations affecting the surface energy budget calculations and an indication of the potential effectiveness o f assimilating LST into the models.

Suggs, Ronnie J.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Variations in Atmospheric Water Vapor as Seen in Satellite Data and Model Reanalysis Fields

New data sets used to describe components of the hydrologic and energy cycles of the Earth system are currently being produced and disseminated through the NASA EOS DAACs and several data assimilation centers supported by such organizations as NASA and NOAA. These data sets incorporate hybrid data analysis schemes and portray satellite and radiosonde data combined in a diagnostic sense and in a forecast mode. There is a need to develop a better understanding of the accuracy and utility of these global, relatively long-term, datasets to describe components of the hydrologic cycle and to understand atmospheric moisture variability and its relation to climatological significant events Much progress has been made in the last ten years in the development of global atmospheric models and analysis of satellite data for global studies. The atmospheric models have improved in their ability to predict both short term and longer term weather events. This has been possible through better understanding of atmosphere dynamics and very rapid advances in computer technology. Over the same period, data assimilation methods have advanced and unconventional data sources such as aircraft and satellite data, drifting buoys, etc., can be assimilated at non-synaptic times. As a result of these improvements, comprehensive global atmospheric fields based on four-dimensional data assimilation methods now provide one of the most reliable methods for studying dynamical and physical behavior in the atmosphere.

Jedlovec, Gary J.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Intercomparisons of Total Precipitable Water from Satellite and Other Long Term Data Sets

Global water vapor data sets from satellite (NVAP) and reanalysis (NCEP and DAO) are intercompared for a 5 year period (1988-1992). Global average indicates that the NCEP and DAO reanalyses are dryer than NVAP over much of the period. Spatial patterns of the NCEP/NVAP and DAO/NVAP differences show regional variations in the 60 month climatogical fields. For example, in the Eastern Pacific just south of the equator NVAP is much dryer than the NCEP and more moist than DAO. Rather large discrepancies exist in other regions as well. North Africa, Saudi Arabia, India, and Australia show that NVAP TPW values are more moist than the NCEP and DAO model analyses by 4-8 mm. In general, the NCEP and DAO exhibits a tendency to be dryer than NVAP over the tropical ocean region. Over the Americas little differences exist except over the west coast. The shapes of the differences fields over the Eastern Pacific region are significantly different between NCEP/NVAP and DAO/NVAP differences. Over South America and Central Africa, DAO TPW values are significantly higher than those of NVAP. These difference fields show monthly and seasonal variability as well. These results will be highlighted in the paper and on the poster.

Chang, Fong-Chiau↗

NASA NTRS1991

Recent improvements in atmospheric environment models for Space Station applications

The capability of empirical models of the earth's thermosphere must continually be updated if they are to keep pace with their many applications in the aerospace industry. This paper briefly summarizes the progress of several such efforts in support of the Space Station Program. The efforts consists of the development of data bases, analytical studies of the data, and evaluation and intercomparison of thermosphere models. A geomagnetic storm model of Slowey does not compare as well to the MSIS-86 model as does the Marshall Engineering Thermosphere (MET). LDEF orbit decay data is used to evaluate the performance of the MET and MSIS-86 during a period of high solar activity; equal to or exceeding the highest levels that existed during the time of the original data sets upon which these models are based.

Anderson, B. Jeffrey↗