Evaluation of astrophysical hypotheses.
The aim of this article is to set out a bookkeeping procedure for formalizing the process of assessing a hypothesis by comparison of conclusions drawn theoretically from this hypothesis with facts obtained by reduction of observational data. The formalism used is that of probability theory. A key role is played by Bayes's rule representing the inductive process of adjusting a degree of belief in response to new information. Formulae are derived which show (1) how the probability of each hypothesis should be adjusted in response to information concerning one item, and (2) how such estimates concerning more than one item may be combined. The procedure is illustrated by a work sheet showing how a few facts and conclusions concerning pulsars were combined to appraise the neutron-star and white-dwarf hypotheses.