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Stinis, Panagiotis

Publications and source records attributed to Stinis, Panagiotis.

E-PINNs: Epistemic Physics-Informed Neural Networks

Physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) have demonstrated promise as a framework for solving forward and inverse problems involving partial differential equations. Despite recent progress in the field, it remains challenging to quantify uncertainty in these networks. While techniques such as Bayesian PINNs (B-PINNs) provide a principled approach to capturing epistemic uncertainty through Bayesian inference, they can be computationally expensive for large-scale applications. In this work, we propose Epistemic Physics-Informed Neural Networks (E-PINNs), a framework that uses a small network, the epinet, to efficiently quantify epistemic uncertainty in PINNs. The proposed approach works as an add-on to existing, pre-trained PINNs with a small computational overhead. We demonstrate the applicability of the proposed framework in various test cases and compare the results with B-PINNs using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) posterior estimation and dropout-equipped PINNs (Dropout-PINNs). In our experiments, E-PINNs achieve calibrated coverage with competitive sharpness at substantially lower cost. We demonstrate that when B-PINNs produce narrower bands, they under-cover in our tests. E-PINNs also show better calibration than Dropout-PINNs in these examples, indicating a favorable accuracy-efficiency trade-off.

AI for Science↗

Conformalized-KANs: Uncertainty Quantification with Coverage Guarantees for Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KANs) in Scientific Machine Learning

This paper explores uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods in the context of Kolmogorov–Arnold Networks (KANs). We apply an ensemble approach to KANs to obtain a heuristic measure of UQ, enhancing interpretability and robustness in modeling complex functions. Building on this, we introduce Conformalized-KANs, which integrate conformal prediction, a distribution-free UQ technique, with KAN ensembles to generate calibrated prediction intervals with guaranteed coverage.} Extensive numerical experiments are conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of these methods, focusing particularly on the robustness and accuracy of the prediction intervals under various hyperparameter settings. We show that the conformal KAN predictions can be applied to recent extensions of KANs, including Finite Basis KANs (FBKANs) and multifideilty KANs (MFKANs). The results demonstrate the potential of our approaches to significantly improve the reliability and applicability of KANs in scientific machine learning.

• Artificial intelligence (AI) / machine learning ↗

SDYN-GANs: Adversarial learning methods for multistep generative models for general order stochastic dynamics

We introduce adversarial learning methods for data-driven generative modeling of dynamics of nth-order stochastic systems. Our approach builds on Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) with generative model classes based on stable m-step stochastic numerical integrators. From observations of trajectory samples, we introduce methods for learning long-time predictors and stable representations of the dynamics. Our approaches use discriminators based on Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD), training protocols using both conditional and marginal distributions, and methods for learning dynamic responses over different time-scales. We show how our approaches can be used for modeling physical systems to learn force-laws, damping coefficients, and noise-related parameters. Our adversarial learning approaches provide methods for obtaining stable generative models for dynamic tasks including long-time prediction and developing simulations for stochastic systems.

• Artificial intelligence (AI) / machine learning ↗

Rethinking skip connections in Spiking Neural Networks with Time-To-First-Spike coding

Time-To-First-Spike (TTFS) coding in Spiking Neural Networks (SNNs) offers significant advantages in terms of energy efficiency, closely mimicking the behavior of biological neurons. In this work, we delve into the role of skip connections, a widely used concept in Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), within the domain of SNNs with TTFS coding. Our focus is on two distinct types of skip connection architectures: (1) addition-based skip connections, and (2) concatenation-based skip connections. We find that addition-based skip connections introduce an additional delay in terms of spike timing. On the other hand, concatenation-based skip connections circumvent this delay but produce time gaps between after-convolution and skip connection paths, thereby restricting the effective mixing of information from these two paths. To mitigate these issues, we propose a novel approach involving a learnable delay for skip connections in the concatenation-based skip connection architecture. This approach successfully bridges the time gap between the convolutional and skip branches, facilitating improved information mixing. We conduct experiments on public datasets including MNIST and Fashion-MNIST, illustrating the advantage of the skip connection in TTFS coding architectures. Additionally, we demonstrate the applicability of TTFS coding on beyond image recognition tasks and extend it to scientific machine-learning tasks, broadening the potential uses of SNNs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Physics-informed machine learning of the correlation functions in bulk fluids

The Ornstein–Zernike (OZ) equation is the fundamental equation for pair correlation function computations in the modern integral equation theory for liquids. In this work, machine learning models, notably physics-informed neural networks and physics-informed neural operator networks, are explored to solve the OZ equation. The physics-informed machine learning models demonstrate great accuracy and high efficiency in solving the forward and inverse OZ problems of various bulk fluids. The results highlight the significant potential of physics-informed machine learning for applications in thermodynamic state theory.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Report on Pure Mathematics of Machine Learning

We report on the findings conducted by the Pure Mathematics in Machine Learning (PMML) Project under the umbrella of the Mathematics in Artificial Reasoning in Sciences (MARS) Laboratory Initiative at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. The findings contained in this report spans three years of research from the project team. The objectives of the PMML project are two-fold: 1. To gain understanding of modern machine learners through empirical research via structured and sound experimental design, and 2. To prove mathematical theories based upon these empirical findings. We present both empirical results along with mathematical theories in this document.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A Multifidelity and Multimodal Machine Learning Approach for Extracting Bonding Environments of Impurities and Dopants from X-ray Spectroscopies

Extended X-ray absorption fine structure (EXAFS) spectroscopy is crucial for determining the coordination environment of impurities and dopants; however, it requires difficult measurements. X-ray absorption near edge structure (XANES) spectroscopy and X-ray emission spectroscopy (XES) can be obtained easily but cannot be converted to determine structures. In this work we develop tools to map measured XANES to the EXAFS signal through machine learning, thereby facilitating the use of EXAFS structural-determination analyses on XANES data. Through the use of Deep Operator Networks (DeepONets), we are able to accurately predict the EXAFS spectrum between 6 and 14 Å -1 from the first 6 Å -1 (~100 eV) of the absorption spectrum of Cu 2+ substitutional defects in the Fe 3+ mineral hematite (a-Fe 2 O 3 ). This surprising finding implies that theoretical analyses of X-ray absorption spectra could be implemented that extract the same conclusions as high-quality EXAFS studies from spectra collected over a much smaller range of photon energies. To encourage similar efforts, the simulated x-ray spectra, machine learning, and fitting code is made publicly available.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Visualizing Uranium Crystallization from Melt: Experiment-Informed Phase Field Modeling and Machine Learning

The focus of this project was to observe and simulate the solidification of uranium metal at the crystallographic level from its molten state. Melting experiments were conducted at two different scales to observe microstructural evolution using either a laboratory-scale induction furnace (hundreds of grams of metal) or a microscope heating stage (hundreds of milligrams of metal), respectively. Experimental parameters and characterization data were then used to inform a phase field model of gamma-U crystal growth as dendrites with or without secondary phase impurities in the form of uranium carbide particles. Finally, training datasets were generated by the phase field model as inputs to a neural network, developed with the aim of providing a faster, cheaper surrogate model for microstructural simulations within a given parameter space. Progress is reported herein for each of these task areas. Ultimately, 1) an optical microscope heating stage capability has been stood-up for uranium metal solidification studies, 2) a phase field model was advanced to simulate multiple uranium grains growing in the presence of carbide impurity particles and 3) a neural network was constructed and optimized to predict the microstructure features of individually growing uranium crystals.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Physics-informed machine learning of redox flow battery based on a two-dimensional unit cell model

In this paper, we present a physics-informed neural network (PINN) approach for predicting the performance of an all-vanadium redox flow battery, with its physics constraints enforced by a two-dimensional (2D) mathematical model. The 2D model, which includes 6 governing equations and 24 boundary conditions, provides a detailed representation of the electrochemical reactions, mass transport and hydrodynamics occurring inside the redox flow battery. To solve the 2D model with the PINN approach, a composite neural network is employed to approximate species concentration and potentials; the input and output are normalized according to prior knowledge of the battery system; the governing equations and boundary conditions are first scaled to an order of magnitude around 1, and then further balanced with a self-weighting method. Our numerical results show that the PINN is able to predict cell voltage correctly, but the prediction of potentials shows a constant-like shift. To fix the shift, the PINN is enhanced by further constrains derived from the current collector boundary. Finally, we show that the enhanced PINN can be even further improved if a small number of labeled data is available.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

A hybrid deep neural operator/finite element method for ice-sheet modeling

One of the most challenging and consequential problems in climate modeling is to provide probabilistic projections of sea level rise. A large part of the uncertainty of sea level projections is due to uncertainty in ice sheet dynamics. At the moment, accurate quantification of the uncertainty is hindered by the cost of ice sheet computational models. In this work we develop a hybrid approach to approximate existing ice sheet models at a fraction of their cost. Our approach consists of replacing the finite element model for the momentum equations for the ice velocity, the most expensive part of an ice sheet model, with a Deep Operator Network, while we retain a classic finite element discretization for the evolution of the ice thickness. We show that the resulting hybrid model is very accurate and it is an order of magnitude faster than the traditional finite element model. Further, a distinctive feature of the proposed model, compared to other neural network approaches, is that it can handle high-dimensional parameter spaces (parameter fields) such as the basal friction at the bed of the glacier and can therefore be used for generating samples for uncertainty quantification. Further, we study the impact of hyper-parameters, number of unknowns and correlation length of the parameter distribution on the training and accuracy of the Deep Operator Network on a synthetic ice sheet model. We then target the evolution of the Humboldt glacier in Greenland and show that our hybrid model can provide accurate statistics of the glacier mass loss and can be effectively used to accelerate the quantification of uncertainty.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

MULTISTEP AND CONTINUOUS PHYSICS-INFORMED NEURAL NETWORK METHODS FOR LEARNING GOVERNING EQUATIONS AND CONSTITUTIVE RELATIONS

In this work, we investigate the applicability and relative merit of discrete and continuous versions of physics-informed neural network (PINN) methods for learning unknown governing equations or constitutive relations in a nonlinear dynamical system. In the case of unknown dynamics, entire right-hand-side (RHS) equations of the ordinary differential equations are unknown. In the case of unknown constitutive relations, however, the RHS equations are known up to the specification of constitutive relations (that may depend on the state of the system). We use a deep neural network to model unknown governing equations or constitutive relations. The discrete PINN approach combines classical multistep discretization methods for dynamical systems with neural-network-based machine learning methods. On the other hand, the continuous versions utilize deep neural networks to minimize the residual function for the continuous governing equations. We use the case of a fedbatch bioreactor system to study the effectiveness of these approaches and discuss conditions for their applicability. Our results indicate that the accuracy of the trained neural network models is much higher for the cases where we only have to learn a constitutive relation instead of all dynamics. This finding corroborates the well-known fact from scientific computing that building as much structural information as is available into an algorithm can enhance its efficiency and/or accuracy.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Model reduction for a power grid model

We examine the complexity of constructing reduced order models for subsets of the variables needed to represent the state of the power grid. In particular, we apply model reduction techniques to the DeMarco-Zheng power grid model. We show that due to the oscillating nature of the solutions and the absence of timescale separation between resolved and unresolved variables, the construction of accurate reduced models becomes highly non-trivial because one has to account for long memory effects. In addition, we show that a reduced model that includes even a short memory is drastically better than a memoryless model.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Optimal renormalization of multiscale systems

While model order reduction is a promising approach in dealing with multi-scale time-dependent systems that are too large or too expensive to simulate for long times, the resulting reduced order models can suffer from instabilities. We have recently developed a time-dependent renormalization approach to stabilize such reduced models. In the current work, we extend this framework by introducing a parameter that controls the time-decay of the memory of such models and optimally selecting this parameter based on limited fully resolved simulations. First, we demonstrate our framework on the inviscid Burgers equation whose solution develops a finite-time singularity. Our renormalized reduced order models are stable and accurate for long times while using for their calibration only data from a full order simulation before the occurrence of the singularity. Furthermore, we apply this framework to the 3D Euler equations of incompressible fluid flow, where the problem of finite-time singularity formation is still open and where brute force simulation is only feasible for short times. Our approach allows us to obtain for the first time a perturbatively renormalizable model which is stable for long times and includes all the complex effects present in the 3D Euler dynamics. We find that, in each application, the renormalization coefficients display algebraic decay with increasing resolution, and that the parameter which controls the time-decay of the memory is problem-dependent.

Price, Jacob↗

A Kinetic Monte Carlo Approach for Simulating Cascading Transmission Line Failure

In this work, cascading transmission line failures are studied through a dynamical model of the power system operating under fixed conditions. The power grid is modeled as a stochastic dynamical system where first-principles electromechanical dynamics are excited by small Gaussian disturbances in demand and generation around a specified operating point. In this context, a single line failure is interpreted in a large deviation context as a first escape event across a surface in phase space defined by line security constraints. The resulting system of stochastic differential equations admits a transverse decomposition of the drift, which leads to considerable simplification in evaluating the quasipotential (rate function) and, consequently, computation of exit rates. Tractable expressions for the rate of transmission line failure in a restricted network are derived from large deviation theory arguments and validated against numerical simulations. Extensions to realistic settings are considered, and individual line failure models are aggregated into a Markov model of cascading failure inspired by chemical kinetics. Cascades are generated by traversing a graph composed of weighted edges representing transitions to degraded network topologies. Numerical results indicate that the Markov model can produce cascades with qualitative power-law properties similar to those observed in empirical cascades.

Kinetic Monte Carlo, rare events, Cascading Failur↗

Improving Time Step Convergence in an Atmosphere Model With Simplified Physics: The Impacts of Closure Assumption and Process Coupling

Convergence testing is a common practice in the development of dynamical cores of atmospheric models but is not as often exercised for the parameterization of sub-grid physics. An earlier study revealed that the stratiform cloud parameterizations in several predecessors of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) showed strong time-step sensitivity and slower-than-expected convergence when the model's time step was systematically refined. In this work, a simplified atmosphere model is configured that consists of the spectral-element dynamical core of the E3SM atmosphere model coupled with a large-scale condensation parameterization based on commonly used assumptions. This simplified model also resembles E3SM and its predecessors in the numerical implementation of process coupling and shows poor time-step convergence in short ensemble tests. We present a formal error analysis to reveal the expected time-step convergence rate and the conditions for obtaining such convergence. Numerical experiments are conducted to investigate the root causes of convergence problems. We show that revisions in the process coupling and closure assumption help to improve convergence in short simulations using the simplified model; the same revisions applied to a full atmosphere model lead to significant changes in the simulated long-term climate. This work demonstrates that causes of convergence issues in atmospheric simulations can be understood by combining analyses from physical and mathematical perspectives. Addressing convergence issues can help to obtain a discrete model that is more consistent with the intended representation of the physical phenomena.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Developing a simulator-based satellite dataset for using machine learning techniques to derive aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions in models and observations in a consistent framework

Aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions (ACPI) remain a major uncertainty in understanding the Earth’s radiation budget and water cycle (including extremes). After decades of active research, various observationally based metrics have been developed to constrain ACPI in Earth System Models (ESMs), but direct comparison of model and data estimates can confound scientific understanding because limitations and uncertainties in sampling and retrieval procedures may combine with model deficiencies in process representations of ACPI to obstruct understanding. Furthermore, conventional ACPI metrics often vary from one regime to another, and the ACPI process representation in ESMs is also typically derived based on only a limited area/regime (even though the parameterization applies globally). To bridge the gap between models and data and to correctly describe ACPI in all regimes, we propose to construct a new CALIPSO-CloudSat merged dataset that is produced by the same algorithms used in satellite simulators in ESMs, and to use machine learning techniques to derive new ACPI metrics that can be accurately estimated by satellites and can provide meaningful constraints on cloud microphysical process representations in ESMs. The dataset will include measured and retrieved variables for aerosol, cloud, and precipitation from CALIPSO and CloudSat, and environmental variables from meteorological reanalysis. The data will be used to train a neural network to construct the ACPI metrics as a function of environmental conditions. The new ACPI formula will be used to constrain the ACPI in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), and to augment/reformulate the ACPI process representation in the E3SM to improve the simulation of the evolution of the atmosphere under different environmental conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Enforcing constraints for time series prediction in supervised, unsupervised and reinforcement learning

We assume that we are given a time series of data from a dynamical system and our task is to learn the flow map of the dynamical system. We present a collection of results on how to enforce constraints coming from the dynamical system in order to accelerate the training of deep neural networks to represent the flow map of the system as well as increase their predictive ability. In particular, we provide ways to enforce constraints during training for all three major modes of learning, namely supervised, unsupervised and reinforcement learning. In general, the dynamic constraints need to include terms which are analogous to memory terms in model reduction formalisms. Such memory terms act as a restoring force which corrects the errors committed by the learned flow map during prediction. For supervised learning, the constraints are added to the objective function. For the case of unsupervised learning, in particular generative adversarial networks, the constraints are introduced by augmenting the input of the discriminator. Finally, for the case of reinforcement learning and in particular actor-critic methods, the constraints are added to the reward function. In addition, for the reinforcement learning case, we present a novel approach based on homotopy of the action-value function in order to stabilize and accelerate training. We use numerical results for the Lorenz system to illustrate the various constructions.

Stinis, Panagiotis↗

Enforcing constraints for interpolation and extrapolation in Generative Adversarial Networks

Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) are becoming popular choices for unsupervised learning. At the same time there is a concerted effort in the machine learning community to expand the range of tasks in which learning can be applied as well as to utilize methods from other disciplines to accelerate learning. With this in mind, in the current work we suggest ways to enforce given constraints in the output of a GAN both for interpolation and extrapolation. The two cases need to be treated differently. For the case of interpolation, the incorporation of constraints is built into the training of the GAN. The incorporation of the constraints respects the primary game-theoretic setup of a GAN so it can be combined with existing algorithms. However, it can exacerbate the problem of instability during training that is well-known for GANs. We suggest adding small noise to the constraints as a simple remedy that has performed well in our numerical experiments. The case of extrapolation (prediction) is more involved. First, we employ a modified interpolation training process that uses noisy data but does {\it not} necessarily enforce the constraints during training. Second, the resulting modified interpolator is used for extrapolation where the constraints are enforced after each step through projection on the space of constraints.

Stinis, Panagiotis↗