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Stansbery, Gene

Publications and source records attributed to Stansbery, Gene.

Orbital Debris: Past, Present, and Future

In the early days of spaceflight, the gBig Sky h theory was the near universally accepted paradigm for dealing with collisions of orbiting objects. This theory was also used during the early years of the aviation industry. Just as it did in aviation, the gBig Sky h theory breaks down as more and more objects accumulate in the environment. Fortunately, by the late 1970 fs some visionaries in NASA and the US Department of Defense (DoD) realized that trends in the orbital environment would inevitably lead to increased risks to operational spacecraft from collisions with other orbiting objects. The NASA Orbital Debris Program was established at and has been conducted at Johnson Space Center since 1979. At the start of 1979, fewer than 5000 objects were being tracked by the US Space Surveillance Network and very few attempts had been made to sample the environment for smaller sizes. Today, the number of tracked objects has quadrupled. Ground ]based and in situ measurements have statistically sampled the LEO environment over most sizes and mitigation guidelines and requirements are common among most space faring nations. NASA has been a leader, not only in defining the debris environment, but in promoting awareness of the issues in the US and internationally, and in providing leadership in developing policies to address the issue. This paper will discuss in broad terms the evolution of the NASA debris program from its beginnings to its present broad range of debris related research. The paper will discuss in some detail current research topics and will attempt to predict future research trends.

Stansbery, Gene↗

Current and Near-Term Future Measurements of the Orbital Debris Environment at NASA

The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office places great emphasis on obtaining and understanding direct measurements of the orbital debris environment. The Orbital Debris Program Office's environmental models are all based on these measurements. Because OD measurements must cover a very wide range of sizes and altitudes, one technique realistically cannot be used for all measurements. In general, radar measurements have been used for lower altitudes and optical measurements for higher altitude orbits. For very small debris, in situ measurements such as returned spacecraft surfaces are utilized. In addition to receiving information from large debris (> 5-10 cm diameter) from the U.S. Space Surveillance Network, NASA conducts statistical measurements of the debris population for smaller sizes. NASA collects data from the Haystack and Goldstone radars for debris in low Earth orbit as small as 2- 4 mm diameter and from the Michigan Orbital DEbris Survey Telescope for debris near geosynchronous orbit altitude for sizes as small as 30-60 cm diameter. NASA is also currently examining the radiator panel of the Hubble Space Telescope Wide Field Planetary Camera 2 which was exposed to space for 16 years and was recently returned to Earth during the STS- 125 Space Shuttle mission. This paper will give an overview of these on-going measurement programs at NASA as well as discuss progress and plans for new instruments and techniques in the near future.

Stansbery, Gene↗

Orbital Debris Research in the United States

The presentation includes information about growth of the satellite population, the U.S. Space Surveillance Network, tracking and catalog maintenance, Haystack and HAX radar observation, Goldstone radar, the Michigan Orbital Debris Survey Telescope (MODEST), spacecraft surface examinations and sample of space shuttle impacts. GEO/LEO observations from Kwajalein Atoll, NASA s Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM2008), a LEO-to-GEO Environment Debris Model (LEGEND), Debris Assessment Software (DAS) 2.0, the NASA/JSC BUMPER-II meteoroid/debris threat assessment code, satellite reentry risk assessment, optical size and shape determination, work on more complicated fragments, and spectral studies.

Stansbery, Gene↗

Solar Radiation Pressure Estimation and Analysis of a GEO Class of High Area-to-Mass Ratio Debris Objects

A population of deep space objects is thought to be high area-to-mass ratio (AMR) debris having origins from sources in the geosynchronous orbit (GEO) belt. The typical AMR values have been observed to range anywhere from 1's to 10's of m(sup 2)/kg, and hence, higher than average solar radiation pressure effects result in long-term migration of eccentricity (0.1-0.6) and inclination over time. However, the nature of the debris orientation-dependent dynamics also results time-varying solar radiation forces about the average which complicate the short-term orbit determination processing. The orbit determination results are presented for several of these debris objects, and highlight their unique and varied dynamic attributes. Estimation or the solar pressure dynamics over time scales suitable for resolving the shorter term dynamics improves the orbit estimation, and hence, the orbit predictions needed to conduct follow-up observations.

Kelecy, Tom↗

Orbit Processing and Analysis of a GEO Class of High Area-to-Mass Debris Objects

A population of recently discovered deep space objects is thought to be debris having origins from sources in the geosynchronous orbit (GEO) belt. Observations have been presented indicating that these objects have area-to-mass ratios (AMR's) of anywhere from 1's to 10's of m(exp 2)/kg, and thus would explain the observed migration of eccentricity (0.1-0.6) and inclination that distinguishes their orbital characteristics. The solar radiation perturbations on orbital period, inclination and eccentricity over a 20 year period for AMR's of 0.01, 1, 10 and 20 m(exp 2)/kg, are shown in the figures. There is a heightened interest in the international community due to the large number and small size of these objects, as they pose a hazard to active satellites operating in the vicinity of the GEO belt.

Kelecy, Tom↗

Orbital Debris Studies at NASA

Any discussion of expanding the capabilities of Space Surveillance Networks to include tracking and cataloging smaller objects will require a good understanding of orbital debris. In the current U.S. catalog of over 11,000 objects, more than 50% are classified as "debris" to include fragmentation debris, operational debris, liquid metal coolant, and Westford needles. If the catalog is increased to 100,000 objects by lowering the tracked object size threshold, almost all of the additional objects will be orbital debris. The Orbital Debris Program Office has been characterizing the small orbital debris environment through measurements and modeling for many years. This presentation will specifically discuss two different studies conducted at NASA. The first study was done in 1992 and examined the requirements and produced a conceptual design for a Collision Avoidance Network to protect the Space Station Freedom from centimeter sized orbital debris while minimizing maneuvers. The second study was conducted last year and produced NASA s estimate of the orbital population for the years 2015 and 2030 for objects 2 cm and larger.

Stansbery, Gene↗

A Comparison of Three Catastrophic On-Orbit Collisions

Orbital debris environment models, such as NASA's LEGEND model, show that accidental collisions between satellites will begin to be the dominant cause for future debris population growth within the foreseeable future. The collisional breakup models employed are obviously a critical component of the environment models. The Chinese Anti-Satellite (ASAT) test which destroyed the Fengyun-1C weather satellite provided a rare, but not unique, chance to compare the breakup models against an actual on-orbit collision. Measurements from the U.S. Space Surveillance Network (SSN), for debris larger than 10-cm, and from Haystack, for debris larger than 1-cm, show that the number of fragments created from Fengyun significantly exceeds model predictions using the NASA Standard Collisional Breakup Model. However, it may not be appropriate to alter the model to match this one, individual case. Two other on-orbit collisions have occurred in the past which have produced significant numbers of debris fragments. In September 1985, the U.S. conducted an ASAT test against the Solwind P-78 spacecraft at an altitude of approximately 525 km. A year later, in September 1986, the Delta 180 payload was struck by its Delta II rocket body in a planned collision at 220 km altitude. Although no Haystack data is available in 1985-6 and very few debris pieces were cataloged from Delta 180 due to its low altitude, measurements were collected in dedicated tests by phased array radars in the SSN in the days after each test. This paper will examine the available radar data from each test and compare and contrast the results with model predictions and with the results from the more recent Fengyun ASAT test.

Stansbery, Gene↗