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Soper, Braden

Publications and source records attributed to Soper, Braden.

5 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

COVID ‐19 outcomes in patients with cancer: Findings from the University of California health system database

Abstract Background The interaction between cancer diagnoses and COVID‐19 infection and outcomes is unclear. We leveraged a state‐wide, multi‐institutional database to assess cancer‐related risk factors for poor COVID‐19 outcomes. Methods We conducted a retrospective cohort study using the University of California Health COVID Research Dataset, which includes electronic health data of patients tested for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS‐CoV‐2) at 17 California medical centers. We identified adults tested for SARS‐CoV‐2 from 2/1/2020–12/31/2020 and selected a cohort of patients with cancer. We obtained demographic, clinical, cancer type, and antineoplastic therapy data. The primary outcome was hospitalization within 30d after the first positive SARS‐CoV‐2 test. Secondary outcomes were SARS‐CoV‐2 positivity and severe COVID‐19 (intensive care, mechanical ventilation, or death within 30d after the first positive test). We used multivariable logistic regression to identify cancer‐related factors associated with outcomes. Results We identified 409,462 patients undergoing SARS‐CoV‐2 testing. Of 49,918 patients with cancer, 1781 (3.6%) tested positive. Patients with cancer were less likely to test positive (RR 0.70, 95% CI: 0.67–0.74, p < 0.001). Among the 1781 SARS‐CoV‐2‐positive patients with cancer, BCR/ABL‐negative myeloproliferative neoplasms (RR 2.15, 95% CI: 1.25–3.41, p = 0.007), venetoclax (RR 2.96, 95% CI: 1.14–5.66, p = 0.028), and methotrexate (RR 2.72, 95% CI: 1.10–5.19, p = 0.032) were associated with greater hospitalization risk. Cancer and therapy types were not associated with severe COVID‐19. Conclusions In this large, diverse cohort, cancer was associated with a decreased risk of SARS‐CoV‐2 positivity. Patients with BCR/ABL‐negative myeloproliferative neoplasm or receiving methotrexate or venetoclax may be at increased risk of hospitalization following SARS‐CoV‐2 infection. Mechanistic and comparative studies are needed to validate findings.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Budget constrained machine learning for early prediction of adverse outcomes for COVID-19 patients

Abstract The combination of machine learning (ML) and electronic health records (EHR) data may be able to improve outcomes of hospitalized COVID-19 patients through improved risk stratification and patient outcome prediction. However, in resource constrained environments the clinical utility of such data-driven predictive tools may be limited by the cost or unavailability of certain laboratory tests. We leveraged EHR data to develop an ML-based tool for predicting adverse outcomes that optimizes clinical utility under a given cost structure. We further gained insights into the decision-making process of the ML models through an explainable AI tool. This cohort study was performed using deidentified EHR data from COVID-19 patients from ProMedica Health System in northwest Ohio and southeastern Michigan. We tested the performance of various ML approaches for predicting either increasing ventilatory support or mortality. We performed post hoc analysis to obtain optimal feature sets under various budget constraints. We demonstrate that it is possible to achieve a significant reduction in cost at the expense of a small reduction in predictive performance. For example, when predicting ventilation, it is possible to achieve a 43% reduction in cost with only a 3% reduction in performance. Similarly, when predicting mortality, it is possible to achieve a 50% reduction in cost with only a 1% reduction in performance. This study presents a quick, accurate, and cost-effective method to evaluate risk of deterioration for patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection at the time of clinical evaluation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Stochastic Gradient-Based Distributed Bayesian Estimation in Cooperative Sensor Networks

Distributed Bayesian inference provides a full quantification of uncertainty offering numerous advantages over point estimates that autonomous sensor networks are able to exploit. However, fully-decentralized Bayesian inference often requires large communication overheads and low network latency, resources that are not typically available in practical applications. In this paper, we propose a decentralized Bayesian inference approach based on stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics, which produces full posterior distributions at each of the nodes with significantly lower communication overhead. We provide analytical results on convergence of the proposed distributed algorithm to the centralized posterior, under typical network constraints. Finally, we also provide extensive simulation results to demonstrate the validity of the proposed approach.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Improving five-year survival prediction via multitask learning across HPV-related cancers

Oncology is a highly siloed field of research in which sub-disciplinary specialization has limited the amount of information shared between researchers of distinct cancer types. This can be attributed to legitimate differences in the physiology and carcinogenesis of cancers affecting distinct anatomical sites. However, underlying processes that are shared across seemingly disparate cancers probably affect prognosis. The objective of the current study is to investigate whether multitask learning improves 5-year survival cancer patient survival prediction by leveraging information across anatomically distinct HPV related cancers. Furthermore, data were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program database. The study cohort consisted of 29,768 primary cancer cases diagnosed in the United States between 2004 and 2015. Ten different cancer diagnoses were selected, all with a known association with HPV risk. In the analysis, the cancer diagnoses were categorized into three distinct topography groups of varying specificity. The most specific topography grouping consisted of 10 original cancer diagnoses differentiated by the first two digits of the ICD-O-3 topography code. The second topography grouping consisted of cancer diagnoses categorized into six distinct organ groups. Finally, the third topography grouping consisted of just two groups, head-neck cancers and ano-genital cancers. The tasks were to predict 5-year survival for patients within the different topography groups using 14 predictive features which were selected among descriptive variables available in the SEER database. The information from the predictive features was shared between tasks in three different ways, resulting in three distinct predictive models: 1) Information was not shared between patients assigned to different tasks (single task learning); 2) Information was shared between all patients, regardless of task (pooled model); 3) Only relevant information was shared between patients grouped to different tasks (multitask learning). Prediction performance was evaluated with Brier scores. All three models were evaluated against one another on each of the three distinct topography-defined tasks. The results showed that multitask classifiers achieved relative improvement for the majority of the scenarios studied compared to single task learning and pooled baseline methods. In this study, we have demonstrated that sharing information among anatomically distinct cancer types can lead to improved predictive survival models.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗