An approachable problem for the Bayesian analysis of a variety of uncertainties in hierarchical physical models
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Validation/Uncertainty-Quantification↗
Engineering topics
Smith, Philip J.
Publications and source records attributed to Smith, Philip J..
Alternative Architectures for Distributed Work in the National Airspace System
The architecture for the National Airspace System (NAS) in the United States has evolved over time to rely heavily on the distribution of tasks and control authority in order to keep cognitive complexity manageable for any one individual. This paper characterizes a number of different subsystems that have been recently incorporated in the NAS. The goal of this discussion is to begin to identify the critical parameters defining the differences among alternative architectures in terms of the locus of control and in terms of access to relevant data and knowledge. At an abstract level, this analysis can be described as an effort to describe alternative "rules of the game" for the NAS.
Smith, Philip J.↗
Preliminary Findings: Issues in Surface Movement
The final report for the grant is presented. The recent goals for this project have been: (1) To identify common surface movement challenges which affect the airlines and Air Traffic Control; (2) To map out possible solutions to these challenges; (3) To start generalizing about the information we are receiving so that major, abstract categories of challenges and potential solutions will begin to emerge. In particular, there are several areas of opportunity which are beginning to emerge from the data, dealing with the need for: (1) Tools to support information exchange regarding priorities (both within an individual airline and between the ATC tower and airlines). Such priorities include both concerns affecting departure throughput as well as the ordering of departures to accommodate other airline considerations; (2) Planning tools to help ATC and airline Ramp staff deal with information about priorities; (3) Implementation of strategies to enable greater flexibility in queueing flights for departures; (4) Tools to provide better coordination and situation awareness during taxiing (within an airline as well as between airlines and between the airlines); (5) Tools to support planning and to deal with the interactions between departures and arrivals. Thus far, the initial interviews and observations at three airlines and two ATC facilities have been completed.
Smith, Philip J.↗
Human-Centered Automation: The View from Earth Versus the View from Mars
This panel addresses the topic of human-centered automation in, however, a very different context-manned missions to deep space in which predominantly autonomous systems must control the crew's life-support systems most of the time. The Mars spacecraft and its inhabitants are totally dependent on the proper operation of thousands of control loops and pieces of equipment to maintain the delicate, unbuffered homeostasis of their remote existence. Mission success hangs on a thread that depends on a successful partnership, or symbiosis. between crew and machines, which exceeds anything ever required of ground systems. The need for a new approach to human-centered automation is not a "frill" in future Mars mission, but rather a sine qua non of survival. Thus the issue is design: Can we design systems intended to operate in a predominantly autonomous mode. without a human backup, that are sufficiently safe such that human travel into deep space is possible?
Massimino, Michael J.↗
Visualizing turbulent mixing of gases and particles
A physical model and interactive computer graphics techniques have been developed for the visualization of the basic physical process of stochastic dispersion and mixing from steady-state CFD calculations. The mixing of massless particles and inertial particles is visualized by transforming the vector field from a traditionally Eulerian reference frame into a Lagrangian reference frame. Groups of particles are traced through the vector field for the mean path as well as their statistical dispersion about the mean position by using added scalar information about the root mean square value of the vector field and its Lagrangian time scale. In this way, clouds of particles in a turbulent environment are traced, not just mean paths. In combustion simulations of many industrial processes, good mixing is required to achieve a sufficient degree of combustion efficiency. The ability to visualize this multiphase mixing can not only help identify poor mixing but also explain the mechanism for poor mixing. The information gained from the visualization can be used to improve the overall combustion efficiency in utility boilers or propulsion devices. We have used this technique to visualize steady-state simulations of the combustion performance in several furnace designs.
Ma, Kwan-Liu↗
An empirical evaluation of graphical interfaces to support flight planning
Whether optimization techniques or expert systems technologies are used, the underlying inference processes and the model or knowledge base for a computerized problem-solving system are likely to be incomplete for any given complex, real-world task. To deal with the resultant brittleness, it has been suggested that 'cooperative' rather than 'automated' problem-solving systems be designed. Such cooperative systems are proposed to explicitly enhance the collaboration of people and the computer system when working in partnership to solve problems. This study evaluates the impact of alternative design concepts on the performance of airline pilots interacting with such a cooperative system designed to support enroute flight planning. Thirty pilots were studied using three different versions of the system. The results clearly demonstrate that different system design concepts can strongly influence the cognitive processes of users. Indeed, one of the designs studied caused four times as many pilots to accept a poor flight amendment. Based on think-aloud protocols, cognitive models are proposed to account for how features of the computer system interacted with specific types of scenarios to influence exploration and decision-making by the pilots. The results are then used to develop recommendations for guiding the design of cooperative systems.
Smith, Philip J.↗
Enroute flight planning: Evaluating design concepts for the development of cooperative problem-solving systems
There are many problem-solving tasks that are too complex to fully automate given the current state of technology. Nevertheless, significant improvements in overall system performance could result from the introduction of well-designed computer aids. We have been studying the development of cognitive tools for one such problem-solving task, enroute flight path planning for commercial airlines. Our goal has been two-fold. First, we have been developing specific system designs to help with this important practical problem. Second, we have been using this context to explore general design concepts to guide in the development of cooperative problem-solving systems. These design concepts are described below, along with illustrations of their application.
Smith, Philip J.↗
Design of a cooperative problem-solving system for en-route flight planning: An empirical evaluation
Both optimization techniques and expert systems technologies are popular approaches for developing tools to assist in complex problem-solving tasks. Because of the underlying complexity of many such tasks, however, the models of the world implicitly or explicitly embedded in such tools are often incomplete and the problem-solving methods fallible. The result can be 'brittleness' in situations that were not anticipated by the system designers. To deal with this weakness, it has been suggested that 'cooperative' rather than 'automated' problem-solving systems be designed. Such cooperative systems are proposed to explicitly enhance the collaboration of the person (or a group of people) and the computer system. This study evaluates the impact of alternative design concepts on the performance of 30 airline pilots interacting with such a cooperative system designed to support en-route flight planning. The results clearly demonstrate that different system design concepts can strongly influence the cognitive processes and resultant performances of users. Based on think-aloud protocols, cognitive models are proposed to account for how features of the computer system interacted with specific types of scenarios to influence exploration and decision making by the pilots. The results are then used to develop recommendations for guiding the design of cooperative systems.
Layton, Charles↗
Design of a cooperative problem-solving system for en-route flight planning: An empirical evaluation
Both optimization techniques and expert systems technologies are popular approaches for developing tools to assist in complex problem-solving tasks. Because of the underlying complexity of many such tasks, however, the models of the world implicitly or explicitly embedded in such tools are often incomplete and the problem-solving methods fallible. The result can be 'brittleness' in situations that were not anticipated by the system designers. To deal with this weakness, it has been suggested that 'cooperative' rather than 'automated' problem-solving systems be designed. Such cooperative systems are proposed to explicitly enhance the collaboration of the person (or a group of people) and the computer system. This study evaluates the impact of alternative design concepts on the performance of 30 airline pilots interacting with such a cooperative system designed to support enroute flight planning. The results clearly demonstrate that different system design concepts can strongly influence the cognitive processes and resultant performances of users. Based on think-aloud protocols, cognitive models are proposed to account for how features of the computer system interacted with specific types of scenarios to influence exploration and decision making by the pilots. The results are then used to develop recommendations for guiding the design of cooperative systems.
Layton, Charles↗
Clouding tracing: Visualization of the mixing of fluid elements in convection-diffusion systems
This paper describes a highly interactive method for computer visualization of the basic physical process of dispersion and mixing of fluid elements in convection-diffusion systems. It is based on transforming the vector field from a traditionally Eulerian reference frame into a Lagrangian reference frame. Fluid elements are traced through the vector field for the mean path as well as the statistical dispersion of the fluid elements about the mean position by using added scalar information about the root mean square value of the vector field and its Lagrangian time scale. In this way, clouds of fluid elements are traced and are not just mean paths. We have used this method to visualize the simulation of an industrial incinerator to help identify mechanisms for poor mixing.
Ma, Kwan-Liu↗
An empirical evaulation of computerized tools to aid in enroute flight planning
The paper describes an experiment using the Flight Planning Testbed (FPT) in which 27 airline dispatchers were studied. Five general questions was addresses in the study: Under what circumstances does the introduction of computer-generated suggestions (flight plans) influence the planning behavior of dispatchers; what is the nature of such influences; How beneficial are the general design concepts underlying FPT; How effective are the specific implementation decisions made in realizing these general design concepts; How effectively do dispatchers evaluate situations requiring replanning and how effectively do they identify appropriate solutions to these situations. The study leaves little doubt that the introduction of computer-generated suggestions for solving a flight planning problem can have a marked impact on the cognitive processes of the user and on the ultimate plan selected.
Smith, Philip J.↗
Design of a cooperative problem-solving system for enroute flight planning: An empirical study of its use by airline dispatchers
In a previous report, an empirical study of 30 pilots using the Flight Planning Testbed was reported. An identical experiment using the Flight Planning Testbed (FPT), except that 27 airline dispatchers were studied, is described. Five general questions were addressed in this study: (1) under what circumstances do the introduction of computer-generated suggestions (flight plans) influence the planning behavior of dispatchers (either in a beneficial or adverse manner); (2) what is the nature of such influences (i.e., how are the person's cognitive processes changed); (3) how beneficial are the general design concepts underlying FPT (use of a graphical interface, embedding graphics in a spreadsheet, etc.); (4) how effective are the specific implementation decisions made in realizing these general design concepts; and (5) how effectively do dispatchers evaluate situations requiring replanning, and how effectively do they identify appropriate solutions to these situations.
Smith, Philip J.↗
Design concepts for the development of cooperative problem-solving systems
There are many problem-solving tasks that are too complex to fully automate given the current state of technology. Nevertheless, significant improvements in overall system performance could result from the introduction of well-designed computer aids. We have been studying the development of cognitive tools for one such problem-solving task, enroute flight path planning for commercial airlines. Our goal was two-fold. First, we were developing specific systems designs to help with this important practical problem. Second, we are using this context to explore general design concepts to guide in the development of cooperative problem-solving systems. These designs concepts are described.
Smith, Philip J.↗
Enroute flight planning: Evaluating design concepts for the development of cooperative problem-solving concepts
The goals of this research were to develop design concepts to support the task of enroute flight planning. And within this context, to explore and evaluate general design concepts and principles to guide the development of cooperative problem solving systems. A detailed model is to be developed of the cognitive processes involved in flight planning. Included in this model will be the identification of individual differences of subjects. Of particular interest will be differences between pilots and dispatchers. The effect will be studied of the effect on performance of tools that support planning at different levels of abstraction. In order to conduct this research, the Flight Planning Testbed (FPT) was developed, a fully functional testbed environment for studying advanced design concepts for tools to aid in flight planning.
Smith, Philip J.↗
Graphical interfaces for cooperative planning systems
Based on a cognitive task analysis of 5 airline flight crews in a simulator study, researchers have designed a testbed for studying computer aids for en route flight path planning. This testbed runs on a Mac II controlling three color monitors, and is being used to study the design of aids for both dispatchers and flight crews. Specifically, the research focuses on design concepts for developing cooperative problem-solving systems. We use en route flight planning (selecting alternate routes or destinations due to unanticipated weather, traffic, malfunctions, etc.) as the context for studying the design of such systems. Researchers are currently exploring three questions in this test environment: (1) When interacting with a flight planning aid, how does the role of the pilot influence overall system performance; (2) Can the architecture for a cooperative planning system be built around Sacerdoti's (1983) concept of an abstraction hierarchy, where the pilot can interact with the system at many different levels of detail (but where the computer aid by default handles lower level details that the pilot has chosen not to deat with); and (3) Can graphical displays and direct manipulation of these displays provide perceptual enhancements (Larkin and Simon, 1987) of the pilot's problem-solving activities. Information is given in viewgraph form.
Smith, Philip J.↗
Enroute flight planning: The design of cooperative planning systems
Design concepts and principles to guide in the building of cooperative problem solving systems are being developed and evaluated. In particular, the design of cooperative systems for enroute flight planning is being studied. The investigation involves a three stage process, modeling human performance in existing environments, building cognitive artifacts, and studying the performance of people working in collaboration with these artifacts. The most significant design concepts and principles identified thus far are the principle focus.
Smith, Philip J.↗
A testbed for the evaluation of computer aids for enroute flight path planning
A simulator study of the five airline flight crews engaged in various enroute planning activities has been conducted. Based on a cognitive task analysis of this data, a flight planning workstation has been developed on a Mac II controlling three color monitors. This workstation is being used to study design concepts to support the flight planning activities of dispatchers and flight crews in part-task simulators.
Smith, Philip J.↗
Enroute flight-path planning - Cooperative performance of flight crews and knowledge-based systems
Interface design issues associated with the introduction of knowledge-based systems into the cockpit are discussed. Such issues include not only questions about display and control design, they also include deeper system design issues such as questions about the alternative roles and responsibilities of the flight crew and the computer system. In addition, the feasibility of using enroute flight path planning as a context for exploring such research questions is considered. In particular, the development of a prototyping shell that allows rapid design and study of alternative interfaces and system designs is discussed.
Smith, Philip J.↗