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Shen, S. P.

Publications and source records attributed to Shen, S. P..

7 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2001

Statistical Mining of Predictability of Seasonal Precipitation over the United States

Results from a new ensemble canonical correlation (ECC) prediction model yield a remarkable (10-20%) increases in baseline prediction skills for seasonal precipitation over the US for all seasons, compared to traditional statistical predictions. While the tropical Pacific, i.e., El Nino, contributes to the largest share of potential predictability in the southern tier States during boreal winter, the North Pacific and the North Atlantic are responsible for enhanced predictability in the northern Great Plains, Midwest and the southwest US during boreal summer. Most importantly, ECC significantly reduces the spring predictability barrier over the conterminous US, thereby raising the skill bar for dynamical predictions.

Lau, William K. M.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Ensemble Canonical Correlation Prediction of Seasonal Precipitation Over the United States: Raising the Bar for Dynamical Model Forecasts

This paper presents preliminary results of an ensemble canonical correlation (ECC) prediction scheme developed at the Climate and Radiation Branch, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center for determining the potential predictability of regional precipitation, and for climate downscaling studies. The scheme is tested on seasonal hindcasts of anomalous precipitation over the continental United States using global sea surface temperature (SST) for 1951-2000. To maximize the forecast skill derived from SST, the world ocean is divided into non-overlapping sectors. The canonical SST modes for each sector are used as the predictor for the ensemble hindcasts. Results show that the ECC yields a substantial (10-25%) increase in prediction skills for all the regions of the US in every season compared to traditional CCA prediction schemes. For the boreal winter, the tropical Pacific contributes the largest potential predictability to precipitation in the southwestern and southeastern regions, while the North Pacific and the North Atlantic are responsible to the enhanced forecast skills in the Pacific Northwest, the northern Great Plains and Ohio Valley. Most importantly, the ECC increases skill for summertime precipitation prediction and substantially reduces the spring predictability barrier over all the regions of the US continent. Besides SST, the ECC is designed with the flexibility to include any number of predictor fields, such as soil moisture, snow cover and additional local observations. The enhanced ECC forecast skill provides a new benchmark for evaluating dynamical model forecasts.

Lau, William K. M.↗
NASA NTRS1962

Evaluations of Space Shielding

A general method of evaluating the efficiency of space vehicle shielding is developed and used to compare various active and passive systems for protection against ionizing radiation. Available permanent magnets are found useless for active shielding, and combined active-passive systems in general are determined to be inefficient. On the other hand, evaluations show that active electrostatic shielding may have possibilities for weight savings if electrical conditions (presently unknown) are favorable therefor in space. Further, a positive potential improvement is calculated for an active shielding system which utilizes superconducting Nb3Sn to provide a confined magnetic flux to deflect incident charged particles; this potential points toward substantial reductions in shield weight for the protection of large vehicles from highly energetic particles. Recommendations are made for further research, particularly for flight experiments to measure directionality of solar flare protons.

SHIELDING↗