Earth's Energy Imbalance More Than Doubled in Recent Decades
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Thorsten Mauritsen↗
Engineering topics
Seiji Kato
Publications and source records attributed to Seiji Kato.
A Synopsis of AIRS Global-Mean Clear-Sky Radiance Trends From 2003 to 2020
Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) aboard the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Aqua satellite has been operating since September 2002. Its information content, superb instrument performance, and dense sampling pattern make the AIRS radiances an invaluable data set for climate studies. The trends of global-mean, nadir-view, clear-sky AIRS radiances from 2003 to 2020 are studied here, together with the counterparts of synthetic radiances based on two reanalyzes, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis V5 (ECMWF ERA5) and NASA Goddard Earth Observing System V5.4.1 (GEOS-5.4.1; a reanalysis product without assimilation of hyperspectral radiances such as AIRS). The AIRS observation shows statistically significant negative trends in most of its CO2 channels, positive but non-significant trends in the channels over the window regions, and statistically significant positive trends in some of its H2O channels. The best agreements between observed and simulated radiance trends are seen over the CO2 tropospheric channels, while the observed and simulated trends over the CO2 stratospheric channels are opposite. ERA5 results largely agree with the AIRS observation over the H2O channels. The comparison in the H2O channels helps reveal a data continuity issue in the GEOS-5.4.1. Contributions from individual variables to the radiance trends are also assessed by performing separate simulations. This study provides the first synopsis of the global-mean trend of AIRS radiances over all its thermal-IR channels.
CO2↗
Remote Sensing of Cloud, Aerosols, and Radiation from Satellites
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Cloud↗
Evaluating Twenty-Year Trends in Earth’s Energy Flows from Observations and Reanalyses
Satellite, reanalysis, and ocean in situ data are analyzed to evaluate regional, hemispheric and global mean trends in Earth’s energy fluxes during the first twenty years of the 21st century. Regional trends in net top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiation from the Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES), ECMWF Reanalysis 5 (ERA5), and a model similar to ERA5 with prescribed sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice differ markedly, particularly over the Eastern Pacific Ocean, where CERES observes large positive trends. Hemispheric and global mean net TOA flux trends for the two reanalyses are smaller than CERES, and their climatological means are half those of CERES in the southern hemisphere (SH) and more than nine times larger in the northern hemisphere (NH). The regional trend pattern of the divergence of total atmospheric energy transport (TEDIV) over ocean determined using ERA5 analyzed fields is similar to that inferred from the difference between TOA and surface fluxes from ERA5 short-term forecasts. There is also agreement in the trend pattern over ocean for surface fluxes inferred as a residual between CERES net TOA flux and ERA5 analysis TEDIV and surface fluxes obtained directly from ERA5 forecasts. Robust trends are observed over the Gulf Stream associated with enhanced surface-to-atmosphere transfer of heat. Within the ocean, larger trends in ocean heating rate are found in the NH than the SH after 2005, but the magnitude of the trend varies greatly among datasets.
Norman G Loeb↗
An Algorithm to Derive Temperature and Humidity Profile Changes Using Spatially and Temporally Averaged Spectral Radiance Differences
A linear inversion algorithm to derive changes of surface skin temperature and atmospheric temperature and specific humidity vertical profiles using spatially and temporally averaged spectral radiance differences is developed. The algorithm uses spectral radiative kernels, which is the top-of-atmosphere spectral radiance change caused by perturbations of skin temperature and air temperature and specific humidity in the atmosphere, and is an improved version of the algorithm used in earlier studies. Two improvements are the inclusion of the residual and cloud spectral kernels in the form of eigenvectors of principal components. Three and six eigenvectors are used for, respectively, the residual and cloud spectral kernels. An underlying assumption is that the spectral shape of the principal components is constant and their magnitude varies temporally and spatially. The algorithm is tested using synthetic spectral radiances with the spectral range of the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder averaged over 16 days and over a 10° × 10° grid box. Changes of skin temperature, air temperature, and specific humidity vertical profiles are derived from the difference of nadir-view all-sky spectral radiances. The root-mean-square difference of retrieved and true skin temperature differences is 0.59 K. The median of absolute errors in the air temperature change is less than 0.5 K above 925 hPa. The median of absolute errors in the relative specific humidity changes is less than 10% above 825 hPa.
Fang Pan↗
Effects of electromagnetic wave interference on observations of the Earth radiation budget
This paper investigates conditions necessary to match the irradiance derived by integrating radiances measured by a narrow field of view scanning radiometer with the irradiance measured by a hemispherical radiometer, both placed at a satellite altitude for Earth radiation budget estimates. When all sources are similar and they are spatially distributed randomly, then integrating radiance for the irradiance does not introduce a bias. Although the exact magnitude of the bias in other conditions is unknown, a finite area of the aperture that is much larger than the coherence area of radiation contributing to the Earth radiation budget, and a finite time to take a single measurement that is longer than the coherence time are likely to make the difference of the irradiance integrated from radiances and the irradiance measured by a hemispherical instrument insignificant. This conclusion does not contradict the existence of spatial coherence of light from incoherent sources. Therefore, electromagnetic energy absorbed by Earth is derivable from radiances measured by a scanning radiometer integrated over the Earth-viewing hemisphere and then averaging across all locations on the satellite orbital sphere when combined with solar irradiance measurements. Comparisons made in earlier studies show that the difference is less than 1%. In addition, when surface irradiances computed by a radiative transfer model constrained by top-of-atmosphere irradiances derived from radiance measurements are compared with downward shortwave irradiances taken by combinations of a pyreheliometer and a shaded pyranometer, or pyranometers, and with longwave ir- radiances taken by pyrgeometers, the biases in monthly mean irradiances are less than the uncertainties in the surface observations.
Seiji Kato↗
An Algorithm to Derive Temperature and Humidity Profile Changes Using Spatially and Temporally Averaged Spectral Radiance Differences
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Fang Pan↗
Global and Regional Entropy Production by Radiation Estimated from Satellite Observations
Vertical profiles of shortwave and longwave irradiances computed with satellite-derived cloud properties and temperature and humidity profiles from reanalysis are used to estimate entropy production. Entropy production by shortwave radiation is computed by the absorbed irradiance within layers in the atmosphere and by the surface divided by their temperatures. Similarly, entropy production by longwave radiation is computed by emitted irradiance to space from layers in the atmosphere and surface divided by their temperatures. Global annual mean entropy production by shortwave absorption and longwave emission to space are, respectively, 0.852 and 0.928 W/sq.mK. With a steady-state assumption, entropy production by irreversible processes within the Earth system is estimated to be 0.076 W/sq.mK and by nonradiative irreversible processes to be 0.049 W/sq.mK. Both global annual mean entropy productions by shortwave absorption and longwave emission to space increase with increasing shortwave absorption (i.e., with decreasing the planetary albedo). The increase of entropy production by shortwave absorption is, however, larger than the increase of entropy production by longwave emission to space. The result implies that global annual mean entropy production by irreversible processes decreases with increasing shortwave absorption. Input and output temperatures derived by dividing the absorbed shortwave irradiance and emitted longwave irradiance to space by respective entropy production are, respectively, 282 and 259 K, which give the Carnot efficiency of the Earth system of 8.5%.
Seiji Kato↗
Toward a Consistent Definition between Satellite and Model Clear-Sky Radiative Fluxes
A new method of determining clear-sky radiative fluxes from satellite observations for climate model evaluation is presented. The method consists of applying adjustment factors to existing satellite clear-sky broadband radiative fluxes that make the observed and simulated clear-sky flux definitions more consistent. The adjustment factors are determined from the difference between observation-based radiative transfer model calculations of monthly mean clear-sky fluxes obtained by ignoring clouds in the atmospheric column and by weighting hourly mean clear-sky fluxes with imager-based clear-area fractions. The global mean longwave (LW) adjustment factor is −2.2 W m−2 at the top of the atmosphere and 2.7 W m−2 at the surface. The LW adjustment factors are pronounced at high latitudes during winter and in regions with high upper-tropospheric humidity and cirrus cloud cover, such as over the west tropical Pacific, and the South Pacific and intertropical convergence zones. In the shortwave (SW), global mean adjustment is 0.5 W m−2 at TOA and −1.9 W m−2 at the surface. It is most pronounced over sea ice off of Antarctica and over heavy aerosol regions, such as eastern China. However, interannual variations in the regional SW and LW adjustment factors are small compared to those in cloud radiative effect. After applying the LW adjustment factors, differences in zonal mean cloud radiative effect between observations and climate models decrease markedly between 60°S and 60°N and poleward of 65°N. The largest regional improvements occur over the west tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans. In contrast, the impact of the SW adjustment factors is much smaller.
Norman G Loeb↗
Space-Based Observations for Understanding Changes in the Arctic-Boreal Zone
Observations taken over the last few decades indicate that dramatic changes are occurring in the ArcticBoreal Zone (ABZ), which are having significant impacts on ABZ inhabitants, infrastructure, flora and fauna, and economies. While suitable for detecting overall change, the current capability is inadequate for systematic monitoring and for improving process based and large scale understanding of the integrated components of the ABZ, which includes the cryosphere, biosphere, hydrosphere, and atmosphere. Such knowledge will lead to improvements in Earth system models, enabling more accurate prediction of future changes and development of informed adaptation and mitigation strategies. In this article, we review the strengths and limitations of current space based observational capabilities for several important ABZ components and make recommendations for improving upon these current capabilities. We recommend an interdisciplinary and stepwise approach to develop a comprehensive ABZ Observing Network (ABZON), beginning with an initial focus on observing networks designed to gain process based understanding for individual ABZ components and systems that can then serve as the building blocks for a comprehensive ABZON.
Bryan N Duncan↗
Decomposing Shortwave Top-of-Atmosphere and Surface Radiative Flux Variations in Terms of Surface and Atmospheric Contributions
Adiagnostic tool for determining surface and atmospheric contributions to interannual variations in top-of-atmosphere (TOA) reflected shortwave (SW) and net downward SW surface radiative fluxes is introduced. The method requires only upward and downward radiative fluxes at the TOA and surface as input and therefore can readily be applied to both satellite-derived and model-generated adiative fluxes. Observations from the Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) Energy Balanced and Filled (EBAF) Edition 4.0 product show that 81% of the monthly variability in global mean reflected SW TOA flux anomalies is associated with atmospheric variations (mainly clouds),6%is from surface variations, and 13% is from atmosphere–surface covariability. Over the Arctic Ocean, most of the variability in both reflected SW TOA flux and net downward SW surface flux anomalies is explained by variations in sea ice and cloud fraction alone (r2 5 0.94). Compared to CERES, variability in two reanalyses—the ECMWF interim reanalysis (ERA-Interim) and NASA’s Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2)—show large differences in the regional distribution of variance for both the atmospheric and surface contributions to anomalies in net downward SW surface flux. For MERRA-2 the atmospheric contribution is 17% too large compared to CERES while ERA-Interim underestimates the variance by 15%. The difference is mainly due to how cloud variations are represented in the reanalyses. The overall surface contribution in both ERA-Interim and MERRA-2 is smaller than CERES EBAF by 15% for ERA-Interim and 58% for MERRA-2, highlighting limitations of the reanalyses in representing surface albedo variations and their influence on SW radiative fluxes.
Norman G. Loeb↗
TPSAS-NF1676L-29978-DND
Energy within an atmospheric column changes due to absorption of shortwave irradiance, emission of longwave irradiance, enthalpy released by precipitation, convergence of dry static and kinetic energy flux, and surface sensible heat flux. When satellite derived irradiance, precipitation, and surface sensible heat flux data products, as well as tendency and horizontal advection of dry static and kinetic energy fluxes from reanalysis are used to compute the atmospheric energy balance, energy fluxes does not balance exactly, resulting in an energy balance residual. A study by Kato et al. (2016) shows that large residuals exist over tropical oceans. In this study, we examine how the energy balance residual changes with time. If the energy balance residual for a given region is constant every year, this implies that annual anomalies of energy flux components balance over the region. If, however, the energy balance residual changes with time, an analysis of the dependence on atmospheric or cloud properties may provide information to understand the reason for the residual. A preliminary result indicates that significant interannual variabilities in energy balance residual exist when annual energy balance residuals over the entire ocean is examined. Temporal variability of regional energy budget residual and covariability of the energy budget residual with the multivariate ENSO index and the occurrence of specific cloud types will further be investigated.
Seiji Kato↗
TPSAS-NF1676L-26925-DND
Observationally-based atmospheric energy balance is analyzed using Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES)-derived TOA and surface irradiance, Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP)-derived precipitation, dry static and kinetic energy tendency and divergence estimated from ERA-Interim, and surface sensible heat flux from SeaFlux. The residual tends to be negative over tropics and positive over mid-latitudes. A negative residual implies that precipitation rate is too small, divergence is too large, or radiative cooling is too large. The residual of atmospheric energy is spatially and temporally correlated with cloud objects to identify cloud types associated with the residual. Spatially, shallow cumulus, cirrostratus, and deep convective cloud object occurrence are positively correlated with the absolute value of the residual. The temporal correlation coefficient between the number of deep convective cloud objects and individual energy components, net atmospheric irradiance, precipitation rate, and the sum of dry static and kinetic energy divergence and their tendency over western Pacific are, respectively, 0.84, 0.95, and 0.93. However, when all energy components are added, the atmospheric energy residual over tropical Pacific temporally correlates well with the number of shallow cumulus cloud objects over tropical Pacific. Because shallow cumulus does not alter enough atmospheric energy compared to the residual, these suggest 1) if retrieval errors associated with deep convective clouds are causing the column integrated atmospheric energy residual, the errors vary among individual deep convective clouds, 2) it is possible that the residual is associated with processes in which shallow cumulus clouds affect deep convective clouds and hence atmospheric energy budget over tropical western Pacific, and 3) it is also possible that cumulus congestus present cirrostratus that missed in massive sensor retrieval contribute the residual. Cloud objects used in the study that leads to the above conclusions are derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). In this investigation, we use Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) and CloudSat data to evaluate and verify above findings. Specifically, we focus on 3) above and analyze frequency of occurrence of cumulus congestus present under cirrostratus and correlation to the energy balance residual.
Seiji Kato↗
TPSAS-NF1676L-35172-DND
The wide field of view instrument on Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) Earth Radiation Budget Satellite (ERBS) took measurements from November 1984 through September 1999. It provides top-of-atmosphere (TOA) reflected shortwave and emitted longwave irradiance at a 10 degree by 10 degree spatial resolution. We have recently re-processed ERBS wide field of view data with algorithms similar to those used in the CERES process (Shrestha et al. 2019). We also calibrated ERBS shortwave and longwave irradiance with CERES-derived irradiances. Combining ERBS and CERES data, we analyze the time series of global mean net TOA irradiance from 1985. The change of TOA net radiation over 30 years derived from ERBS and CERES data is larger than the change derived by Allan et al. (2014). The difference in the net irradiance change from two data sets is, however, within the uncertainty of ocean heating rates derived from ocean temperature measurements in 80?s. We also investigate the spatial distribution of changes in reflected shortwave irradiances derived from ERBS and CERES periods. The spatial distribution of reflected shortwave irradiance changes over the tropics and sub-tropical regions derived from our data set is qualitatively consistent with the result of Norris et al. (2016).
Antonio Viudez-Mora↗
Use of CALIPSO and CloudSat Data to Improve Surface Radiation Budget Over Polar Regions
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Seiji Kato↗
Surface Atmosphere Radiation Budget (SARB) Working Group Update
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Seiji Kato↗
TPSAS-NF1676L-22727-DND
Satellite based top-of-atmosphere (TOA) and surface radiation budget observations are combined with mass corrected vertically integrated atmospheric energy divergence and tendency from reanalysis to infer the regional distribution of the TOA, atmospheric and surface energy budget terms over the globe. Hemispheric contrasts in the energy budget terms are used to determine the radiative and combined sensible and latent heat contributions to the cross-equatorial heat transports in the atmosphere (AHTEQ) and ocean (OHTEQ). The contrast in net atmospheric radiation implies an AHTEQ from the northern hemisphere (NH) to the southern hemisphere (SH) (0.75 PW), while the hemispheric difference in sensible and latent heat implies an AHTEQ in the opposite direction (0.51 PW), resulting in a net NH to SH AHTEQ (0.24 PW). At the surface, the hemispheric contrast in the radiative component (0.95 PW) dominates, implying a 0.44 PW SH to NH OHTEQ. Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models with excessive net downward surface radiation and surface-to-atmosphere sensible and latent heat transport in the SH relative to the NH exhibit anomalous northward AHTEQ and overestimate SH tropical precipitation. The hemispheric bias in net surface radiative flux is due to too much longwave surface radiative cooling in the NH tropics in both clear and all-sky conditions and excessive shortwave surface radiation in the SH subtropics and extratropics due to an underestimation in reflection by clouds.
Norman G Loeb↗