Engineering topics

Schatten, K. H.

Publications and source records attributed to Schatten, K. H..

At least 19 records

NASA NTRS1991

Dynamo-based scheme for forecasting the magnitude of solar activity cycles

This paper presents a general framework for forecasting the smoothed maximum level of solar activity in a given cycle, based on a simple understanding of the solar dynamo. This type of forecasting requires knowledge of the sun's polar magnetic field strength at the preceding activity minimum. Because direct measurements of this quantity are difficult to obtain, the quality of a number of proxy indicators already used by other authors is evaluated, which are physically related to the sun's polar field. These indicators are subjected to a rigorous statistical analysis, and the analysis technique for each indicator is specified in detail in order to simplify and systematize reanalysis for future use. It is found that several of these proxies are in fact poorly correlated or uncorrelated with solar activity, and thus are of little value for predicting activity maxima. Also presented is a scheme in which the predictions of the individual proxies are combined via an appropriately weighted mean to produce a compound prediction. The scheme is then applied to the current cycle 22, and a maximum smoothed international sunspot number of 171 + or - 26 is estimated.

Layden, A. C.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Venus' superrotation, mixing length theory and eddy diffusion - A parametric study

The concept of the Hadley mechanism is adopted to describe the axisymmetric circulation of the Venus atmosphere. It is shown that, for the atmosphere of a slowly rotating planet such as Venus, a form of the nonliner 'closure' (self-consistent solution) of the fluid dynamics system which constrains the magnitude of the eddy diffusion coefficients can be postulated. A nonlinear one-layer spectral model of the zonally symmetric circulation was then used to establish the relationship between the heat source, the meridional circulation, and the eddy diffusion coefficients, yielding large zonal velocities. Computer experiments indicated that proportional changes in the heat source and eddy diffusion coefficients do not significantly change the zonal velocities. It was also found that, for large eddy diffusion coefficients, the meridional velocity is virtually constant; below a threshold in the diffusion rate, the meridional velocity decreases; and, for large eddy diffusion and small heating rates, the zonal velocities decrease with decreasing planetary rotation rates.

Mayr, H. G.↗

NASA NTRS1986

A dynamo theory prediction for solar cycle 22: Sunspot number, radio flux, exospheric temperature, and total density at 400 km

Using the dynamo theory method to predict solar activity, a value for the smoothed sunspot number of 109 + or - 20 is obtained for solar cycle 22. The predicted cycle is expected to peak near December, 1990 + or - 1 year. Concommitantly, F(10.7) radio flux is expected to reach a smoothed value of 158 + or - 18 flux units. Global mean exospheric temperature is expected to reach 1060 + or - 50 K and global total average total thermospheric density at 400 km is expected to reach 4.3 x 10 to the -15th gm/cu cm + or - 25 percent.

Schatten, K. H.↗

NASA NTRS1985

On the maintenance of sunspots - An ion hurricane mechanism

Inward and downflow motions below the photosphere are considered to be a means of cooling and powering sunspot dynamics. Parker's superadiabatic effect is examined with attention focused on the energetics involved in ionization advection. The current analysis enhances Parker's mechanism by allowing for a 2 m/s downflow velocity at 2000 km depth to significantly reduce the photospheric irradiance to near umbral intensities. Similarities between sunspots and terrestrial hurricanes are noted, and it was found that ionization energy plays the same role in sunspots as latent energy plays in terrestrial weather systems. Based on the hypothesis that magnetic fields are important in organizing the motions on the sun, some understanding is provided of: (1) the instability which drives the cooling mechanism for sunspots, (2) the low latitude appearance of sunspots, (3) active region development with faculae following sunspot growth, (4) the role of the fluid in maintaining the magnetic field and the role of the field as a focal point for the fluid downflow, (5) the heating mechanism and structure of faculae, (6) energy balance in active regions, and (7) the behavior difference of pores and ephemeral active regions in relation to ordinary sunspots and active regions.

Schatten, K. H.↗

NASA NTRS1985

The importance of improved facular observations in understanding solar constant variations

A new study of solar irradiance modeling has been undertaken to improve the previous modeling efforts and perhaps to resolve the energy-balance question. In the present study, the daily sunspot and facular areas (using plages as a proxy measure of faculae) have been utilized, as well as a plage intensity index to examine brightness variations. It is noted that the reported plage areas changed by a factor of 2 near the end of 1979. Although this can be partially modeled because a commensurate change in plage brightness occurs, it leads to the conclusion that facular areas and brightness uncertainties prevent a definitive answer to the energy-balance question with this technique.

Schatten, K. H.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Conjecture on superrotation in planetary atmospheres - A diffusion model with mixing length theory

The component of rigid shell superrotation on Venus is discussed in the context of comparative planetary atmospheres. A simplified, heuristic analysis, utilizing mixed length theory to describe the small scale nonlinear advections of energy and angular momentum, thereby providing a closure of the dynamic system, is presented, on the basis of which a crude estimate of zonal velocity is made. The rigid shell (global average) component on Venus was calculated to be 105 m/sec.

Mayr, H. G.↗

NASA NTRS1984

A dynamo theory prediction for solar cycle 22 - Sunspot number, radio flux, exospheric temperature, and total density at 400 km

Using the 'dynamo theory' method to predict solar activity, a value for the smoothed sunspot number of 109 + or - 20 is obtained for solar cycle 22. The predicted cycle is expected to peak near December, 1990 + or - 1 year. Concommitantly, F(10.7) radio flux is expected to reach a smoothed value of 158 + or - 18 flux units. Global mean exospheric temperature is expected to reach 1060 + or - 50 K and global total average total thermospheric density at 400 km is expected to reach 4.3 x 10 to the -15th gm/cu cm + or - 25 percent.

Schatten, K. H.↗

NASA NTRS1984

A conjecture concerning thermodynamic limits to solar atmospheric heating

Considering the solar atmosphere in its entirety, that large-scale nonadiabatic processes (MHD waves, and so on) effectively tend to yield an 'equalization of temperature', such that the atmospheric temperature is limited to the base temperature associated with its heat source. This conjecture suggests that (1) the chromospheric temperature is limited by the granulation base temperature (10,000 K), (2) the spicule temperatures are limited by the base temperature (100,000 K) where the supergranular cells form, and (3) the quiet coronal temperature is less than or equal to the convection zone base temperature (2,000,000 K). Thermodynamical arguments are provided which may serve to augment the detailed heating models wherein large-scale mechanical energy is transported into the solar atmosphere involving MHD waves, current dissipation, and other nonthermal processes.

Schatten, K. H.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Energy Flow Continuity in Solar Active Regions

The models for sunspots are combined into an active region model with consideration for the energy flow beneath active regions. An apparent average energy balance exists between the sunspot deficit and the facular excess, i.e., no 11 year variations in solar luminosity associated with the activity centers. This is seen as a consequence of the upper convection zone's inability to store these significant amounts of energy for periods greatly in excess of weeks. This view is supported by observed active region behavior and detailed numerical modelling. Increases in facular and spot brightness are nearly commensurate, with the faculae outlasting the spots on time scales of the order of weeks to a couple of months. Foukal finds the radiation (deficit from a sunspot blocking model) recovers slowly on a timescale of approximately 83 days.

Schatten, K. H.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Solar disk sextant optical configuration

In this paper the performance of a plausible configuration for the solar disk sextant, an instrument to be used to monitor the solar diameter, is evaluated. Overall system requirements are evaluated, and tolerable uncertainties are obtained. It is concluded that by using a beam splitting wedge, a folded optics design can be used to measure the solar diameter to an accuracy of 10 to the -6th, despite the greater aberrations present in such optical systems.

Chiu, H.-Y.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Solar disk sextant

This paper presents the conceptual design of an instrument, called the solar disk sextant, to be used in space to measure the shape and the size of the sun and their variations. The instrumental parameters required to produce sufficient sensitivity to address the problems of solar oblateness, solar pulsations, and global size changes of climatic importance are given.

Sofia, S.↗

NASA NTRS1984

A zonally symmetric model for volcanic influence upon atmospheric circulation

The effects of volcanic activity upon zonal wind flow in a model atmosphere are considered. A low latitude volcanic eruption could lower the tropospheric pole to equator temperature difference and thereby affect the atmospheric motions. When the temperature contrast decreases, the zonal wind velocities at high altitudes are reduced. To conserve angular momentum, the velocities in the lower atmosphere near the surface must increase, thus providing a momentum source for ocean currents. It is suggested that this momentum source may have played a role as a trigger for inducing the 1982-83 anomalous El Nino and possibly other climate changes.

Schatten, K. H.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Modulation of solar irradiance by active regions

Hoyt and Eddy (1983) have modeled solar irradiance by accounting for active regions. It is presently noted, however, in contradiction to this model, that in active region modeling of solar irradiance care should be taken to not merely employ average contrasts of faculae. This caveat is especially applicable if the model proceeds to ignore the active region facular areas when their contrasts are low, since this doubly devalues the faculae contribution relative to that of sunspots.

Schatten, K. H.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Facular influences on the apparent solar shape

The problem of the influence of faculae on apparent solar shape is examined in light of general facular contrast models. The diagonal components of the oblateness signal from the faculae observed are calculated, and it is found that the faculae can contribute a signal whose time dependence is similar to that of the Dicke and Goldenberg (1967) oblateness signal, allowing an acceptable fit to the oblateness measurements for a facular contrast within the range of acceptable values.

Schatten, K. H.↗

NASA NTRS1983

The faint young sun-climate paradox - Crustal influences

The various mechanisms which have been proposed to compensate for the climatic effects of a 30 percent increase in the solar constant during the past 4.5 billion years are examined. Mechanisms besides the greenhouse effect could have provided significant compensation during the second half of this period. It is proposed that the development of continents during the past 2.5 billion years caused a secular evolution of the atmosphere-ocean heat transport system. As a result, past climates were less susceptible to complete freeze-over. The lower albedo of water would be another factor in this effect insofar as the early earth had smaller land masses. A complete or nearly complete freeze-over may have occurred as past glaciations were widespread. Climate models then suggest that the earth would have remained frozen through the present epoch and into a distant future. It is suggested that volcanic influences could allow a passage from the frozen branch onto the unfrozen branch of climate models should conditions on earth be suitable for that climate change. A broad equatorial belt of volcanic ash is one scenario which would allow a transfer from the frozen earth state into the unfrozen one.

Schatten, K. H.↗

NASA NTRS1982

The faint young sun-climate paradox - Volcanic influences

It has been suggested that the early earth may have frozen over as a result of a fainter early sun (see Ulrich, 1975). If this had happened, climate models suggest the earth would have remained frozen through the present epoch and into the distant future. We suggest that volcanic influences could allow a passage from the frozen branch into the unfrozen branch of climate models should conditions on earth be suitable for the latter climate change. A broad equatorial belt of volcanic ash is one scenario which would allow a transfer from the frozen earth state into the unfrozen one.

Schatten, K. H.↗

NASA NTRS1982

The faint young sun-climate paradox - Continental influences

We examine the various mechanisms which have been proposed to compensate for the climatic effects of a 30% increase in the solar luminosity over the past 4 1/2 billion years. Although atmospheric greenhouse effects have received most attention, other mechanisms may have played a role of comparable importance. In particular, we note that the development of continents during the past 2 1/2 billion years could have had a significant secular effect on the atmosphere-ocean heat transport system. As a result, past climates may have been less susceptible to complete freeze-over. A simple energy balance model is used to demonstrate the magnitude of this effect. Because the CO2 greenhouse effect is not the only means of compensating for solar evolution, the faint-young-sun problem should not be used to infer past levels of atmospheric CO2.

Endal, A. S.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Solar irradiance variations due to active regions

Questions regarding changes in solar irradiance due to activity are important, since such changes may have a significant effect on the earth's climate. Solar irradiance measurements conducted outside the earth's atmosphere and, therefore, not affected by it have become possible by utilizing for such measurements satellites, such as the Nimbus 7 and the Solar Maximum Mission satellite (ACRIM experiment). The present investigation has the objective to show that a combination of sunspots and faculae is capable of representing the observed variations in the values of ACRIM data to a satisfactory degree, given the current level of uncertainties in the ground-based data.

Oster, L.↗