Engineering topics

Rundle, John B.

Publications and source records attributed to Rundle, John B..

7 records

DOE OSTI2024

Time Series Foundation Models and Deep Learning Architectures for Earthquake Temporal and Spatial Nowcasting

Advancing the capabilities of earthquake nowcasting, the real-time forecasting of seismic activities, remains crucial for reducing casualties. This multifaceted challenge has recently gained attention within the deep learning domain, facilitated by the availability of extensive earthquake datasets. Despite significant advancements, the existing literature on earthquake nowcasting lacks comprehensive evaluations of pre-trained foundation models and modern deep learning architectures; each focuses on a different aspect of data, such as spatial relationships, temporal patterns, and multi-scale dependencies. This paper addresses the mentioned gap by analyzing different architectures and introducing two innovative approaches called Multi Foundation Quake and GNNCoder. We formulate earthquake nowcasting as a time series forecasting problem for the next 14 days within 0.1-degree spatial bins in Southern California. Earthquake time series are generated using the logarithm energy released by quakes, spanning 1986 to 2024. Our comprehensive evaluations demonstrate that our introduced models outperform other custom architectures by effectively capturing temporal-spatial relationships inherent in seismic data. The performance of existing foundation models varies significantly based on the pre-training datasets, emphasizing the need for careful dataset selection. However, we introduce a novel method, Multi Foundation Quake, that achieves the best overall performance by combining a bespoke pattern with Foundation model results handled as auxiliary streams.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2012

QuakeSim 2.0

QuakeSim 2.0 improves understanding of earthquake processes by providing modeling tools and integrating model applications and various heterogeneous data sources within a Web services environment. QuakeSim is a multisource, synergistic, data-intensive environment for modeling the behavior of earthquake faults individually, and as part of complex interacting systems. Remotely sensed geodetic data products may be explored, compared with faults and landscape features, mined by pattern analysis applications, and integrated with models and pattern analysis applications in a rich Web-based and visualization environment. Integration of heterogeneous data products with pattern informatics tools enables efficient development of models. Federated database components and visualization tools allow rapid exploration of large datasets, while pattern informatics enables identification of subtle, but important, features in large data sets. QuakeSim is valuable for earthquake investigations and modeling in its current state, and also serves as a prototype and nucleus for broader systems under development. The framework provides access to physics-based simulation tools that model the earthquake cycle and related crustal deformation. Spaceborne GPS and Inter ferometric Synthetic Aperture (InSAR) data provide information on near-term crustal deformation, while paleoseismic geologic data provide longerterm information on earthquake fault processes. These data sources are integrated into QuakeSim's QuakeTables database system, and are accessible by users or various model applications. UAVSAR repeat pass interferometry data products are added to the QuakeTables database, and are available through a browseable map interface or Representational State Transfer (REST) interfaces. Model applications can retrieve data from Quake Tables, or from third-party GPS velocity data services; alternatively, users can manually input parameters into the models. Pattern analysis of GPS and seismicity data has proved useful for mid-term forecasting of earthquakes, and for detecting subtle changes in crustal deformation. The GPS time series analysis has also proved useful as a data-quality tool, enabling the discovery of station anomalies and data processing and distribution errors. Improved visualization tools enable more efficient data exploration and understanding. Tools provide flexibility to science users for exploring data in new ways through download links, but also facilitate standard, intuitive, and routine uses for science users and end users such as emergency responders.

Donnellan, Andrea↗

NASA NTRS2004

Karhunen-Loeve Analysis of SCIGN GPS Data

During the final year of this project, we made substantial progress on the proposed work. Specifically, we have continued the horizontal and vertical Karhunen-Loeve (KL) analysis of SCIGN data and implemented the study of a number of particular modes. In particular, we studied the spatial and temporal interactions of these modes in an effort to better understand and model the source of each signal.

Rundle, John B.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Report of the panel on plate motion and deformation, section 2

Given here is a panel report on the goals and objectives, requirements and recommendations for the investigation of plate motion and deformation. The goals are to refine our knowledge of plate motions, study regional and local deformation, and contribute to the solution of important societal problems. The requirements include basic space-positioning measurements, the use of global and regional data sets obtained with space-based techniques, topographic and geoid data to help characterize the internal processes that shape the planet, gravity data to study the density structure at depth and help determine the driving mechanisms for plate tectonics, and satellite images to map lithology, structure and morphology. The most important recommendation of the panel is for the implementation of a world-wide space-geodetic fiducial network to provide a systematic and uniform measure of global strain.

Bock, Yehuda↗

NASA NTRS1989

Nonclassical nucleation and growth of cohesive tensile cracks

The nucleation and growth of cohesive tensile cracks are analyzed using a field-theoretic formulation in which the free energy is written as a functional of the crack separation (offset field). The present results indicate that, for certain materials, crack nucleation and growth proceed through the formation and extension of a diffuse 'halo' surrounding the classical portion of the crack. This is similar to nonclassical nucleation in magnetic systems. Theoretical considerations and numerical calculations strongly suggest that the diffuse halo can be identified with the fracture process zone seen in laboratory studies of advancing cracks.

Rundle, John B.↗

NASA NTRS1989

A physical model for earthquakes. III - Thermodynamical approach and its relation to nonclassical theories

An earthquake theory based on fundamental thermodynamical considerations was developed using two principles. The first principle is that physical systems, including fault systems, tend toward a state of minimal Helmholtz free energy, which corresponds to static equilibrium. The second postulate is that, if the system is not at minimal free energy, thermodynamic forces arise which drive the system back toward a minimum. According to this theory, the propagation of a fracture, or the formation of a slip on a frictional surface, are manifestations of the physics which attempt to return the system to minimal free energy. It is shown that the process of return to minimal free energy by the system corresponds to the production of entropy, thereby rendering the process irreversible.

Rundle, John B.↗

NASA NTRS1988

A physical model for earthquakes. I - Fluctuations and interactions. II - Application to southern California

The idea that earthquakes represent a fluctuation about the long-term motion of plates is expressed mathematically through the fluctuation hypothesis, under which all physical quantities which pertain to the occurance of earthquakes are required to depend on the difference between the present state of slip on the fault and its long-term average. It is shown that under certain circumstances the model fault dynamics undergo a sudden transition from a spatially ordered, temporally disordered state to a spatially disordered, temporally ordered state, and that the latter stages are stable for long intervals of time. For long enough faults, the dynamics are evidently chaotic. The methods developed are then used to construct a detailed model for earthquake dynamics in southern California. The result is a set of slip-time histories for all the major faults, which are similar to data obtained by geological trenching studies. Although there is an element of periodicity to the events, the patterns shift, change and evolve with time. Time scales for pattern evolution seem to be of the order of a thousand years for average recurring intervals of about a hundred years.

Rundle, John B.↗