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Rubin, David

Publications and source records attributed to Rubin, David.

Union through UNITY: Cosmology with 2000 SNe Using a Unified Bayesian Framework

Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) were instrumental in establishing the acceleration of the Universe’s expansion. By virtue of their combination of distance reach, precision, and prevalence, they continue to provide key cosmological constraints, complementing other cosmological probes. Individual SN surveys cover only over about a factor of 2 in redshift, so compilations of multiple SN data sets are strongly beneficial. We assemble an up-to-date “Union” compilation of 2087 cosmologically useful SNe Ia from 24 data sets (“Union3”). We take care to put all SNe on the same distance scale and update the light-curve fitting with SALT3 to use the full rest-frame optical. Over the next few years, the number of cosmologically useful SNe Ia will increase by more than a factor of 10, and keeping systematic uncertainties subdominant will be more challenging than ever. We discuss the importance of treating outliers, selection effects, light-curve shape/color populations/standardization relations, unexplained dispersion, and heterogeneous observations simultaneously. We present an updated Bayesian framework, called UNITY1.5 (Unified Nonlinear Inference for Type-Ia cosmologY), that incorporates significant improvements in our ability to model selection effects, standardization, and systematic uncertainties compared to earlier analyses. As an analysis byproduct, we also recover the posterior of the SN-only peculiar-velocity field, although we do not interpret it in this work. We compute updated cosmological constraints with Union3 and UNITY1.5, finding weak 1.7σ–2.6σ tension with flat cold dark matter and possible evidence for thawing dark energy (w0 > − 1, wa < 0). We release our SN distances, light-curve fits, and UNITY1.5 framework to the community.

Rubin, David↗

Constraints on Cosmological Parameters with a Sample of Type Ia Supernovae from JWST

We investigate the potential of using a sample of very high-redshift (2 ≲ z ≲ 6) (VHZ) Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) attainable by JWST on constraining cosmological parameters. At such high redshifts, the age of the universe is young enough that the VHZ SN Ia sample comprises the very first SNe Ia of the universe, with progenitors among the very first generation of low-mass stars that the universe has made. We show that the VHZ SNe Ia can be used to disentangle systematic effects due to the luminosity distance evolution with redshifts intrinsic to SN Ia standardization. Assuming that the systematic evolution can be described by a linear or logarithmic formula, we found that the coefficients of this dependence can be determined accurately and decoupled from cosmological models. Systematic evolution as large as 0.15 mag and 0.45 mag out to z = 5 can be robustly separated from popular cosmological models for linear and logarithmic evolution, respectively. The VHZ SNe Ia will lay the foundation for quantifying the systematic redshift evolution of SN Ia luminosity distance scales. When combined with SN Ia surveys at comparatively lower redshifts, the VHZ SNe Ia allow for the precise measurement of the history of the expansion of the universe from z ~ 0 to the epoch approaching reionization.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

GIGA-Lens: Fast Bayesian Inference for Strong Gravitational Lens Modeling

We present GIGA-Lens: a gradient-informed, GPU-accelerated Bayesian framework for modeling strong gravitational lensing systems, implemented in TensorFlow and JAX. The three components, optimization using multistart gradient descent, posterior covariance estimation with variational inference, and sampling via Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, all take advantage of gradient information through automatic differentiation and massive parallelization on graphics processing units (GPUs). We test our pipeline on a large set of simulated systems and demonstrate in detail its high level of performance. The average time to model a single system on four Nvidia A100 GPUs is 105 s. The robustness, speed, and scalability offered by this framework make it possible to model the large number of strong lenses found in current surveys and present a very promising prospect for the modeling of ${ \mathcal O }({10}^{5})$ lensing systems expected to be discovered in the era of the Vera C. Rubin Observatory, Euclid, and the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Going Forward with the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope Transient Survey: Validation of Precision Forward-modeling Photometry for Undersampled Imaging

The Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope (Roman) is an observatory for both wide-field observations and coronagraphy that is scheduled for launch in the mid-2020s. Part of the planned survey is a deep, cadenced field or fields that enable cosmological measurements with type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia). With a pixel scale of 0$_.^"$11, the Wide Field Instrument will be undersampled, presenting a difficulty for precisely subtracting the galaxy light underneath the SNe. We use simulated data to validate the ability of a forward-model code (such codes are frequently also called “scene-modeling” codes) to perform precision supernova photometry for the Roman SN survey. Our simulation includes over 760,000 image cutouts around SNe Ia or host galaxies (~10% of a full-scale survey). To have a realistic 2D distribution of underlying galaxy light, we use the VELA simulated high-resolution images of galaxies. We run each set of cutouts through our forward-modeling code which automatically measures time-dependent SN fluxes. Given our assumed inputs of a perfect model of the instrument point-spread functions and calibration, we find biases at the millimagnitude level from this method in four red filters (Y106, J129, H158, and F184), easily meeting the 0.5% Roman inter-filter calibration requirement for a cutting-edge measurement of cosmological parameters using SNe Ia. Simulated data in the bluer Z087 filter shows larger ~ 2–3 mmg biases, also meeting this requirement, but with more room for improvement. Our forward-model code has been released on Zenodo.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Innovations in optimization and control of accelerators using methods of differential geometry and genetic algorithms (Final Report)

Online tuning of particle accelerators is necessary in order to achieve optimal machine performance. However, it is also a major challenge due to the large parameter space which must be searched and the fact that many of the desir- able objectives compete with one another, and so will not reach their optimal values simultaneously. In order to mitigate these issues, we have explored using dimension-reduction techniques to reduce the size of the parameter space which must be searched and multi-objective genetic algorithms to obtain the sets of tuning parameters which provide pareto-optimal values for the objectives. These methods have enabled us to obtain improved values of the vertical emittance at the Cornell Electron Storage Ring (CESR), and to do so with greater control of orbit errors. Algorithmic tuning is a multidisciplinary endeavour, requiring expertise in beam dynamics, diagnostics, control systems and computer science, and thus a key practical problem is to formulate a common language in which experts with different specialties can communicate. We developed a solution to this problem in the form of a generic accelerator software interface that allows for rapid prototyping of optimization and control algorithms. Our interface is built on the Experimental Physics and Industrial Control Systems (EPICS) and makes possible testing control code in simulation before deployment on real accelerators, as well as deployment of third-party optimization code.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Recommendation for a Medical System Concept of Operations for Gateway Missions

NASA’s exploration missions to cis-lunar space will establish a permanent gateway to future transport missions to Mars. These missions mandate a significant paradigm change for mission planning, spacecraft design, human systems integration, and in-flight medical care due to constraints on mass, volume, power, resupply, and medical evacuation capability. These constraints require medical system development to be tightly integrated with mission and habitat design to provide a sufficient medical infrastructure and enable mission success. This concept of operations provides a vision of medical care needs that will be used to guide the development of a medical system for the cis-lunar Gateway Habitat. This medical system will serve as the precursor to what is implemented in future exploration missions to Mars. This concept of operations documents an overview of the stakeholder needs and system goals of a medical system and provides examples of the types of activities for which the system will be used during the mission. This concept of operations informs the ExMC systems engineering effort to define the Gateway Habitat Medical System by documenting the medical activities and capabilities relevant to Gateway missions, as identified by the ExMC clinician community. In addition, this concept of operations will inform the subsequent systems engineering process of developing technical requirements, system architectures, interfaces, and verification and validation approaches for the medical system. This document supports the closure of ExMC Gap Med01: We do not have a concept of operations for medical care during exploration missions, corresponding to the ExMC-managed human system risk: Risk of Adverse Health Outcomes & Decrements in Performance due to Inflight Medical Conditions.

Rubin, David↗

Systems Engineering for Space Exploration Medical Capabilities

Human exploration missions to beyond low Earth orbit destinations such as Mars will present significant new challenges to crew health management during a mission compared to current low Earth orbit operations. For the medical system, lack of consumable resupply, evacuation opportunities, and real-time ground support are key drivers toward greater autonomy. Recognition of the limited mission and vehicle resources available to carry out exploration missions motivates the Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) Element's approach to enabling the necessary autonomy. The Element's work must integrate with the overall exploration mission and vehicle design efforts to successfully provide exploration medical capabilities. ExMC is applying systems engineering principles and practices to accomplish its integrative goals. This paper discusses the structured and integrative approach that is guiding the medical system technical development. Assumptions for the required levels of care on exploration missions, medical system guiding principles, and a Concept of Operations are early products that capture and clarify stakeholder expectations. Mobel-Based Systems Engineering techniques are then applied to define medical system behavior and architecture. Interfaces to other flight and ground systems, and within the medical system are identified and defined. Initial requirements and traceability are established, which sets the stage for identification of future technology development needs. An early approach for verification and validation, taking advantage of terrestrial and near-Earth exploration system analogs, is also defined to further guide system planning and development.

Mindock, Jennifer↗

Systems Engineering for Space Exploration Medical Capabilities

Human exploration missions that reach destinations beyond low Earth orbit, such as Mars, will present significant new challenges to crew health management. For the medical system, lack of consumable resupply, evacuation opportunities, and real-time ground support are key drivers toward greater autonomy. Recognition of the limited mission and vehicle resources available to carry out exploration missions motivates the Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) Element's approach to enabling the necessary autonomy. The Element's work must integrate with the overall exploration mission and vehicle design efforts to successfully provide exploration medical capabilities. ExMC is applying systems engineering principles and practices to accomplish its goals. This paper discusses the structured and integrative approach that is guiding the medical system technical development. Assumptions for the required levels of care on exploration missions, medical system goals, and a Concept of Operations are early products that capture and clarify stakeholder expectations. Model-Based Systems Engineering techniques are then applied to define medical system behavior and architecture. Interfaces to other flight and ground systems, and within the medical system are identified and defined. Initial requirements and traceability are established, which sets the stage for identification of future technology development needs. An early approach for verification and validation, taking advantage of terrestrial and near-Earth exploration system analogs, is also defined to further guide system planning and development.

Mindock, Jennifer↗

Overview of an Integrated Medical System for Exploration Missions

The Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) element of the NASA Human Research Program (HRP) is charged with addressing the risk of unacceptable health and mission outcomes due to limitations of inflight medical capabilities. The Exploration Medical System Demonstration (EMSD) is a project within the ExMC element aimed at reducing this risk by improving the medical capabilities available for exploration missions. The EMSD project will demonstrate, on the ground and on ISS, the integration of several components felt to be essential to the delivery of medical care during long ]duration missions outside of low Earth orbit. The components of the EMSD include the electronic medical record, assisted medical procedure software, medical consumables tracking technology and RFID ] tagged consumables, video conferencing capability, ultrasound device and probes (ground demonstration only), peripheral biosensors, and the software to allow communication among the various components (middleware). This presentation seeks to inform our international partners of the goals and objectives of the EMSD and to foster collaboration opportunities related to this and future projects.

Watkins, Sharmila↗