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Romanovsky, Vladimir E.

Publications and source records attributed to Romanovsky, Vladimir E..

16 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

The Arctic

Arctic observations in 2023 provided clear evidence of rapid and pronounced climate and environmental change, shaped by past and ongoing human activities that release greenhouse gases into the atmosphere and push the broader Earth system into uncharted territory. This chapter provides a snapshot of 2023 and summarizes decades-long trends observed across the Arctic, including warming surface air and sea-surface temperatures, decreasing snow cover, diminishing sea ice, thawing permafrost, and continued mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet and Arctic glaciers. These changes are driving a transition to a wetter, greener, and less frozen Arctic, with serious implications for Arctic peoples and ecosystems, as well as for low- and midlatitudes

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Near‐Surface Hydrology and Soil Properties Drive Heterogeneity in Permafrost Distribution, Vegetation Dynamics, and Carbon Cycling in a Sub‐Arctic Watershed

Abstract Discontinuous permafrost environments exhibit strong spatial heterogeneity at scales too small to be driven by weather forcing or captured by Earth System Models. Here we analyze effects of observed spatial heterogeneity in soil and vegetation properties, hydrology, and thermal dynamics on ecosystem carbon dynamics in a watershed on the Seward Peninsula in Alaska. We apply a Morris global sensitivity analysis to a process‐rich, successfully tested terrestrial ecosystem model (TEM), ecosys , varying soil properties, boundary conditions, and weather forcing. We show that landscape heterogeneity strongly impacts soil temperatures and vegetation composition. Snow depth, O‐horizon thickness, and near‐surface water content, which vary at scales of O(m), control the soil thermal regime more than an air temperature gradient corresponding to a 140 km north–south distance. High shrub productivity is simulated only in talik (perennially unfrozen) soils with high nitrogen availability. Through these effects on plant and permafrost dynamics, landscape heterogeneity impacts ecosystem productivity. Simulations with near‐surface taliks have higher microbial respiration (by 78.0 gC m −2 yr −1 ) and higher net primary productivity (by 104.9 gC m −2 yr −1 ) compared to runs with near‐surface permafrost, and simulations with high shrub productivity have outlying values of net carbon uptake. We explored the prediction uncertainty associated with ignoring observed landscape heterogeneity, and found that watershed net carbon uptake is 60% larger when heterogeneity is accounted for. Our results highlight the complexity inherent in discontinuous permafrost environments and demonstrate that missing representation of subgrid heterogeneity in TEMs could bias predictions of high‐latitude carbon budget.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Changes in precipitation and air temperature contribute comparably to permafrost degradation in a warmer climate

Abstract Surface energy budgets of high-latitude permafrost systems are poorly represented in Earth system models (ESMs), yet permafrost is rapidly degrading and these dynamics are critical to future carbon-climate feedback predictions. A potentially important factor in permafrost degradation neglected so far by ESMs is heat transfer from precipitation, although increases in soil temperature and thaw depth have been observed following increases in precipitation. Using observations and a mechanistic ecosystem model, we show here that increases in precipitation hasten active layer development beyond that caused by surface air warming across the North Slope of Alaska (NSA) under recent and 21st century climate (RCP8.5). Modeled active layer depth (ALD) in simulations that allow precipitation heat transfer agreed very well with observations from 28 Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring sites (R 2 = 0.63; RMSE = 10 cm). Simulations that ignored precipitation heat transfer resulted in lower spatially-averaged soil temperatures and a 39 cm shallower ALD by 2100 across the NSA. The results from our sensitivity analysis show that projected increases in 21st century precipitation deepen the active layer by enhancing precipitation heat transfer and ground thermal conductivity, suggesting that precipitation is as important an environmental control on permafrost degradation as surface air temperature. We conclude that ESMs that do not account for precipitation heat transfer likely underestimate ALD rates of change, and thus likely predict biased ecosystem responses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

A distributed temperature profiling method for assessing spatial variability in ground temperatures in a discontinuous permafrost region of Alaska

Soil temperature has been recognized as a property that strongly influences a myriad of hydro-biogeochemical processes and reflects how various properties modulate the soil thermal flux. In spite of its importance, our ability to acquire soil temperature data with high spatial and temporal resolution and coverage is limited because of the high cost of equipment, the difficulties of deployment, and the complexities of data management. Here we propose a new strategy that we call distributed temperature profiling (DTP) for improving the characterization and monitoring near-surface thermal properties through the use of an unprecedented number of laterally and vertically distributed temperature measurements. We developed a prototype DTP system, which consists of inexpensive, low-impact, low-power, and vertically resolved temperature probes that independently and autonomously record soil temperature. The DTP system concept was tested by moving sequentially the system across the landscape to identify near-surface permafrost distribution in a discontinuous permafrost environment near Nome, Alaska, during the summertime. Results show that the DTP system enabled successful acquisition of vertically resolved profiles of summer soil temperature over the top 0.8 m at numerous locations. DTP also enabled high-resolution identification and lateral delineation of near-surface permafrost locations from surrounding zones with no permafrost or deep permafrost table locations overlain by a perennially thawed layer. The DTP strategy overcomes some of the limitations associated with – and complements the strengths of – borehole-based soil temperature sensing as well as fiber-optic distributed temperature sensing (FO-DTS) approaches. Combining DTP data with co-located topographic and vegetation maps obtained using unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) data allowed us to identify correspondences between surface and subsurface property distribution and in particular between topography, vegetation, shallow soil properties, and near-surface permafrost. Finally, the results highlight the considerable value of the newly developed DTP strategy for investigating the significant variability in and complexity of subsurface thermal and hydrological regimes in discontinuous permafrost regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2019

Developing a soil inversion model framework for regional permafrost monitoring

Currently, the community lacks capabilities to assess and monitor landscape scale permafrost active layer dynamics over large extents. To address this need, we developed a concept of a remote sensing based Soil Inversion Model for regional Permafrost (SIM-P) monitoring. The current SIM-P framework includes a satellite-based soil process model and a soil dielectric model. We are also working on incorporating a radar scattering model for Arctic tundra into the SIM-P framework. A unified soil parameterization scheme was developed to harmonize key soil thermal, hydraulic and dielectric parameters in the soil process and radar models that can be used in the joint soil-radar inversion framework. The soil parameter retrievals of the SIM-P framework include soil organic content (SOC) and active layer thickness (ALT). Initial tests of SIM-P using in-situ soil permittivity observations showed reasonable accuracy in predicting site-level SOC and soil temperature profiles at an Alaska tundra site and ALT in Arctic Alaska. SIM-P will be further tested using airborne P- and L-band radar data collected during NASA’s Arctic Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE) to evaluate the sensitivity of longwave radar to active layer properties.

Miller, Charles E.↗
DOE OSTI2018

Tundra landscape heterogeneity, not interannual variability, controls the decadal regional carbon balance in the Western Russian Arctic

Across the Arctic, the net ecosystem carbon (C) balance of tundra ecosystems is highly uncertain due to substantial temporal variability of C fluxes and to landscape heterogeneity. We modeled both carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) fluxes for the dominant regional land cover types in a sub-Arctic tundra region in northeast European Russia for the period of 2006-2015 using coupled biogeochemical and permafrost models. Modeled net annual CO2 fluxes ranged from -300 g C m-2 y-1 [net uptake] in a willow fen to 3 g C m-2 y-1 [net source] in dry lichen tundra. Modeled annual CH4 emissions ranged from -0.2 to 22.3 g C m-2 y-1 at a peat plateau site and a willow fen site, respectively. Interannual variability over the decade was relatively small (20-30%) in comparison to variability among the land cover types (120-225%). Using high-resolution land cover classification, the region was a net sink of atmospheric CO2 across most land cover types but a net source of CH4 to the atmosphere due to high emissions from permafrost-free fens. Using a lower-resolution for land cover classification resulted in a 20-65% underestimation of regional CH4 flux and smaller (10%) overestimation of regional CO2 uptake, leading to an overall overestimation of the regional GHG sink by 90% due to the underestimation of wetland extent by 60%. Accurately capturing the relative fraction of uplands versus wetlands was key to determining the net regional C balance but required high (<25-30 m) spatial resolution.

Treat, Claire↗
DOE OSTI2018

A decade of remotely sensed observations highlight complex processes linked to coastal permafrost bluff erosion in the Arctic

We report that eroding permafrost coasts are likely indicators and integrators of changes in the Arctic System as they are susceptible to the combined effects of declining sea ice extent, increases in open water duration, more frequent and impactful storms, sea-level rise, and warming permafrost. However, few observation sites in the Arctic have yet to link decadal-scale erosion rates with changing environmental conditions due to temporal data gaps. This study increases the temporal fidelity of coastal permafrost bluff observations using near-annual high spatial resolution (<1 m) satellite imagery acquired between 2008–2017 for a 9 km segment of coastline at Drew Point, Beaufort Sea coast, Alaska. Our results show that mean annual erosion for the 2007–2016 decade was 17.2 m yr -1 , which is 2.5 times faster than historic rates, indicating that bluff erosion at this site is likely responding to changes in the Arctic System. In spite of a sustained increase in decadal-scale mean annual erosion rates, mean open water season erosion varied from 6.7 m yr -1 in 2010 to more than 22.0 m yr -1 in 2007, 2012, and 2016. This variability provided a range of coastal responses through which we explored the different roles of potential environmental drivers. The lack of significant correlations between mean open water season erosion and the environmental variables compiled in this study indicates that we may not be adequately capturing the environmental forcing factors, that the system is conditioned by long-term transient effects or extreme weather events rather than annual variability, or that other not yet considered factors may be responsible for the increased erosion occurring at Drew Point. Finally, our results highlight an increase in erosion at Drew Point in the 21st century as well as the complexities associated with unraveling the factors responsible for changing coastal permafrost bluffs in the Arctic.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Impacts of microtopographic snow redistribution and lateral subsurface processes on hydrologic and thermal states in an Arctic polygonal ground ecosystem: a case study using ELM-3D v1.0

Microtopographic features, such as polygonal ground, are characteristic sources of landscape heterogeneity in the Alaskan Arctic coastal plain. In this study, we analyze the effects of snow redistribution (SR) and lateral subsurface processes on hydrologic and thermal states at a polygonal tundra site near Barrow, Alaska. We extended the land model integrated in the E3SM to redistribute incoming snow by accounting for microtopography and incorporated subsurface lateral transport of water and energy (ELM-3D v1.0). Multiple 10-year-long simulations were performed for a transect across a polygonal tundra landscape at the Barrow Environmental Observatory in Alaska to isolate the impact of SR and subsurface process representation. When SR was included, model predictions better agreed (higher R 2 , lower bias and RMSE) with observed differences in snow depth between polygonal rims and centers. The model was also able to accurately reproduce observed soil temperature vertical profiles in the polygon rims and centers (overall bias, RMSE, and R 2 of 0.59°C, 1.82°C, and 0.99, respectively). The spatial heterogeneity of snow depth during the winter due to SR generated surface soil temperature heterogeneity that propagated in depth and time and led to ~ 10 cm shallower and ~ 5 cm deeper maximum annual thaw depths under the polygon rims and centers, respectively. Additionally, SR led to spatial heterogeneity in surface energy fluxes and soil moisture during the summer. Excluding lateral subsurface hydrologic and thermal processes led to small effects on mean states but an overestimation of spatial variability in soil moisture and soil temperature as subsurface liquid pressure and thermal gradients were artificially prevented from spatially dissipating over time. The effect of lateral subsurface processes on maximum thaw depths was modest, with mean absolute differences of ~ 3 cm. Our integration of three-dimensional subsurface hydrologic and thermal subsurface dynamics in the E3SM land model will facilitate a wide range of analyses heretofore impossible in an ESM context.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Impacts of microtopographic snow-redistribution and lateral subsurface processeson hydrologic and thermal states in an Arctic polygonal ground ecosystem

Microtopographic features, such as polygonal ground, are characteristic sources of landscape heterogeneity in the Alaskan Arctic coastal plain. Here, we analyze the effects of snow redistribution (SR) and lateral subsurface processes on hydrologic and thermal states at a polygonal tundra site near Barrow, Alaska. We extended the land model integrated in the ACME Earth System Model (ESM) to redistribute incoming snow by accounting for microtopography and incorporated subsurface lateral transport of water and energy (ALMv0-3D). Three 10-years long simulations were performed for a transect across polygonal tundra landscape at the Barrow Environmental Observatory in Alaska to isolate the impact of SR and subsurface process representation. When SR was included, model results show a better agreement (higher R 2 with lower bias and RMSE) for the observed differences in snow depth between polygonal rims and centers. The model was also able to accurately reproduce observed soil temperature vertical profiles in the polygon rims and centers (overall bias, RMSE, and R 2 of 0.59 &deg;C, 1.82 &deg;C, and 0.99, respectively). The spatial heterogeneity of snow depth during the winter due to SR generated surface soil temperature heterogeneity that propagated in depth and time and led to ~10 cm shallower and ~5 cm deeper maximum annual thaw depths under the polygon rims and centers, respectively. Additionally, SR led to spatial heterogeneity in surface energy fluxes and soil moisture during the summer. Excluding lateral subsurface hydrologic and thermal processes led to small effects on mean states but an overestimation of spatial variability in soil moisture and soil temperature as subsurface liquid pressure and thermal gradients were artificially prevented from spatially dissipating over time. The effect of lateral subsurface processes on active layer depths was modest with mean absolute difference of ~3 cm. Our integration of three-dimensional subsurface hydrologic and thermal subsurface dynamics in the ACME land model will facilitate a wide range of analyses heretofore impossible in an ESM context.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Large CO 2 and CH 4 emissions from polygonal tundra during spring thaw in northern Alaska: Spring Pulse Emission

The few prethaw observations of tundra carbon fluxes suggest that there may be large spring releases, but little Is lmown about the scale and underlying mechanisms of this phenomenon. To address these questions, we combined ecosystem eddy flux measurements from two towers near Barrow, Alaska, with mechanistic soil-core thawing experiment During a 2week period prior to snowmelt In 2014, large fluxes were measured, reducing net summer uptake of CO2 by 46% and adding 6% to cumulative CH4 emissions. Emission pulses were linked to unique rain-on-snow events enhancing soli cracking. Controlled laboratory experiment revealed that as surface Ice thaws, an immediate, large pulse of trapped gases Is emitted. These results suggest that the Arctic C02 and CH4 spring pulse is a delayed release of biogenic gas production from the previous fall and that the pulse can be large enough to offset a significant fraction of the moderate Arctic tundra carbon sink.

Raz-Yaseef, Naama↗
DOE OSTI2016

Scaling-up permafrost thermal measurements in western Alaska using an ecotype approach

Permafrost temperatures are increasing in Alaska due to climate change and in some cases permafrost is thawing and degrading. In areas where degradation has already occurred the effects can be dramatic, resulting in changing ecosystems, carbon release, and damage to infrastructure. However, in many areas we lack baseline data, such as subsurface temperatures, needed to assess future changes and potential risk areas. Besides climate, the physical properties of the vegetation cover and subsurface material have a major influence on the thermal state of permafrost. These properties are often directly related to the type of ecosystem overlaying permafrost. In this paper we demonstrate that classifying the landscape into general ecotypes is an effective way to scale up permafrost thermal data collected from field monitoring sites. Additionally, we find that within some ecotypes the absence of a moss layer is indicative of the absence of near-surface permafrost. As a proof of concept, we used the ground temperature data collected from the field sites to recode an ecotype land cover map into a map of mean annual ground temperature ranges at 1 m depth based on analysis and clustering of observed thermal regimes. In conclusion, the map should be useful for decision making with respect to land use and understanding how the landscape might change under future climate scenarios.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Effect of soil property uncertainties on permafrost thaw projections: A calibration-constrained analysis

Here, the effect of soil property uncertainties on permafrost thaw projections are studied using a three-phase subsurface thermal hydrology model and calibration-constrained uncertainty analysis. The Null-Space Monte Carlo method is used to identify soil hydrothermal parameter combinations that are consistent with borehole temperature measurements at the study site, the Barrow Environmental Observatory. Each parameter combination is then used in a forward projection of permafrost conditions for the 21$^{st}$ century (from calendar year 2006 to 2100) using atmospheric forcings from the Community Earth System Model (CESM) in the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 greenhouse gas concentration trajectory. A 100-year projection allows for the evaluation of intra-annual uncertainty due to soil properties and the inter-annual variability due to year to year differences in CESM climate forcings. After calibrating to borehole temperature data at this well-characterized site, soil property uncertainties are still significant and result in significant intra-annual uncertainties in projected active layer thickness and annual thaw depth-duration even with a specified future climate. Intra-annual uncertainties in projected soil moisture content and Stefan number are small. A volume and time integrated Stefan number decreases significantly in the future climate, indicating that latent heat of phase change becomes more important than heat conduction in future climates. Out of 10 soil parameters, ALT, annual thaw depth-duration, and Stefan number are highly dependent on mineral soil porosity, while annual mean liquid saturation of the active layer is highly dependent on the mineral soil residual saturation and moderately dependent on peat residual saturation. By comparing the ensemble statistics to the spread of projected permafrost metrics using different climate models, we show that the effect of calibration-constrained uncertainty in soil properties, although significant, is less than that produced by structural climate model uncertainty for this location.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Isotopic identification of soil and permafrost nitrate sources in an Arctic tundra ecosystem

The nitrate (NO₃⁻) dual isotope approach was applied to snowmelt, tundra active layer pore waters, and underlying permafrost in Barrow, Alaska, USA, to distinguish between NO₃⁻ derived from at NO₃⁻ signal with δ¹⁵N averaging –4.8 ± 1.0‰ (standard error of the mean) and δ¹⁸O averaging 70.2 ±1.7‰. In active layer pore waters, NO₃⁻ primarily occurred at concentrations suitable for isotopic analysis in the relatively dry and oxic centers of high-centered polygons. The average δ¹⁵N and δ¹⁸O of NO₃⁻ from high-centered polygons were 0.5 ± 1.1‰ and –4.1 ± 0.6‰, respectively. When compared to the δ¹⁵N of reduced nitrogen (N) sources, and the δ¹⁸O of soil pore waters, it was evident that NO₃⁻ in high-centered polygons was primarily from microbial nitrification. Permafrost NO₃⁻ had δ¹⁵N ranging from approximately –6‰ to 10‰, similar to atmospheric and microbial NO₃⁻, and highly variable δ¹⁸O ranging from approximately –2‰ to 38‰. Permafrost ice wedges contained a significant atmospheric component of NO₃⁻, while permafrost textural ice contained a greater proportion of microbially derived NO₃⁻. Large-scale permafrost thaw in this environment would release NO₃⁻ with a δ¹⁸O signature intermediate to that of atmospheric and microbial NO₃. Consequently, while atmospheric and microbial sources can be readily distinguished by the NO₃⁻ dual isotope technique in tundra environments, attribution of NO₃⁻ from thawing permafrost will not be straightforward. The NO₃⁻ isotopic signature, however, appears useful in identifying NO₃⁻ sources in extant permafrost ice.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Climate change and the permafrost carbon feedback

Large quantities of organic carbon are stored in frozen soils (permafrost) within Arctic and sub-Arctic regions. Awarming climate can induce environmental changes that accelerate the microbial breakdown of organic carbon and the release of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide and methane. Furthermore, this feedback can accelerate climate change, but the magnitude and timing of greenhouse gas emission from these regions and their impact on climate change remain uncertain. Here we find that current evidence suggests a gradual and prolonged release of greenhouse gas emissions in a warming climate and present a research strategy with which to target poorly understood aspects of permafrost carbon dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗