Engineering topics
Roberts, J. B.
Publications and source records attributed to Roberts, J. B..
Improved Rainfall Estimates and Predictions for 21st Century Drought Early Warning
As temperatures increase, the onset and severity of droughts is likely to become more intense. Improved tools for understanding, monitoring and predicting droughts will be a key component of 21st century climate adaption. The best drought monitoring systems will bring together accurate precipitation estimates with skillful climate and weather forecasts. Such systems combine the predictive power inherent in the current land surface state with the predictive power inherent in low frequency ocean-atmosphere dynamics. To this end, researchers at the Climate Hazards Group (CHG), in collaboration with partners at the USGS and NASA, have developed i) a long (1981-present) quasi-global (50degS-50degN, 180degW-180degE) high resolution (0.05deg) homogenous precipitation data set designed specifically for drought monitoring, ii) tools for understanding and predicting East African boreal spring droughts, and iii) an integrated land surface modeling (LSM) system that combines rainfall observations and predictions to provide effective drought early warning. This talk briefly describes these three components. Component 1: CHIRPS The Climate Hazards group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS), blends station data with geostationary satellite observations to provide global near real time daily, pentadal and monthly precipitation estimates. We describe the CHIRPS algorithm and compare CHIRPS and other estimates to validation data. The CHIRPS is shown to have high correlation, low systematic errors (bias) and low mean absolute errors. Component 2: Hybrid statistical-dynamic forecast strategies East African droughts have increased in frequency, but become more predictable as Indo- Pacific SST gradients and Walker circulation disruptions intensify. We describe hybrid statistical-dynamic forecast strategies that are far superior to the raw output of coupled forecast models. These forecasts can be translated into probabilities that can be used to generate bootstrapped ensembles describing future climate conditions. Component 3: Assimilation using LSMs CHIRPS rainfall observations (component 1) and bootstrapped forecast ensembles (component 2) can be combined using LSMs to predict soil moisture deficits. We evaluate the skill such a system in East Africa, and demonstrate results for 2013.
Seasonal Drought Prediction in East Africa: Can National Multi-Model Ensemble Forecasts Help?
The increasing food and water demands of East Africa's growing population are stressing the region's inconsistent water resources and rain-fed agriculture. As recently as in 2011 part of this region underwent one of the worst famine events in its history. Timely and skillful drought forecasts at seasonal scale for this region can inform better water and agro-pastoral management decisions, support optimal allocation of the region's water resources, and mitigate socio-economic losses incurred by droughts. However seasonal drought prediction in this region faces several challenges. Lack of skillful seasonal rainfall forecasts; the focus of this presentation, is one of those major challenges. In the past few decades, major strides have been taken towards improvement of seasonal scale dynamical climate forecasts. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction's (NCEP) National Multi-model Ensemble (NMME) is one such state-of-the-art dynamical climate forecast system. The NMME incorporates climate forecasts from 6+ fully coupled dynamical models resulting in 100+ ensemble member forecasts. Recent studies have indicated that in general NMME offers improvement over forecasts from any single model. However thus far the skill of NMME for forecasting rainfall in a vulnerable region like the East Africa has been unexplored. In this presentation we report findings of a comprehensive analysis that examines the strength and weakness of NMME in forecasting rainfall at seasonal scale in East Africa for all three of the prominent seasons for the region. (i.e. March-April-May, July-August-September and October-November- December). Simultaneously we also describe hybrid approaches; that combine statistical approaches with NMME forecasts; to improve rainfall forecast skill in the region when raw NMME forecasts lack in skill.
Improved Rainfall Estimates and Predictions for 21st Century Drought Early Warning
As temperatures increase, the onset and severity of droughts is likely to become more intense. Improved tools for understanding, monitoring and predicting droughts will be a key component of 21st century climate adaption. The best drought monitoring systems will bring together accurate precipitation estimates with skillful climate and weather forecasts. Such systems combine the predictive power inherent in the current land surface state with the predictive power inherent in low frequency ocean-atmosphere dynamics. To this end, researchers at the Climate Hazards Group (CHG), in collaboration with partners at the USGS and NASA, have developed i) a long (1981-present) quasi-global (50degS-50degN, 180degW-180degE) high resolution (0.05deg) homogenous precipitation data set designed specifically for drought monitoring, ii) tools for understanding and predicting East African boreal spring droughts, and iii) an integrated land surface modeling (LSM) system that combines rainfall observations and predictions to provide effective drought early warning. This talk briefly describes these three components. Component 1: CHIRPS The Climate Hazards group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS), blends station data with geostationary satellite observations to provide global near real time daily, pentadal and monthly precipitation estimates. We describe the CHIRPS algorithm and compare CHIRPS and other estimates to validation data. The CHIRPS is shown to have high correlation, low systematic errors (bias) and low mean absolute errors. Component 2: Hybrid statistical-dynamic forecast strategies East African droughts have increased in frequency, but become more predictable as Indo- Pacific SST gradients and Walker circulation disruptions intensify. We describe hybrid statistical-dynamic forecast strategies that are far superior to the raw output of coupled forecast models. These forecasts can be translated into probabilities that can be used to generate bootstrapped ensembles describing future climate conditions. Component 3: Assimilation using LSMs CHIRPS rainfall observations (component 1) and bootstrapped forecast ensembles (component 2) can be combined using LSMs to predict soil moisture deficits. We evaluate the skill such a system in East Africa, and demonstrate results for 2013.
Seasonal Drought Prediction in East Africa: Can National Multi-Model Ensemble Forecasts Help?
The increasing food and water demands of East Africa's growing population are stressing the region's inconsistent water resources and rain-fed agriculture. As recently as in 2011 part of this region underwent one of the worst famine events in its history. Timely and skillful drought forecasts at seasonal scale for this region can inform better water and agro-pastoral management decisions, support optimal allocation of the region's water resources, and mitigate socio-economic losses incurred by droughts. However seasonal drought prediction in this region faces several challenges. Lack of skillful seasonal rainfall forecasts; the focus of this presentation, is one of those major challenges. In the past few decades, major strides have been taken towards improvement of seasonal scale dynamical climate forecasts. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction's (NCEP) National Multi-model Ensemble (NMME) is one such state-of-the-art dynamical climate forecast system. The NMME incorporates climate forecasts from 6+ fully coupled dynamical models resulting in 100+ ensemble member forecasts. Recent studies have indicated that in general NMME offers improvement over forecasts from any single model. However thus far the skill of NMME for forecasting rainfall in a vulnerable region like the East Africa has been unexplored. In this presentation we report findings of a comprehensive analysis that examines the strength and weakness of NMME in forecasting rainfall at seasonal scale in East Africa for all three of the prominent seasons for the region. (i.e. March-April-May, July-August-September and October-November- December). Simultaneously we also describe hybrid approaches; that combine statistical approaches with NMME forecasts; to improve rainfall forecast skill in the region when raw NMME forecasts lack in skill.
Climate Scenarios for the NASA / USAID SERVIR Project: Challenges for Multiple Planning Horizons
SERVIR, an acronym meaning "to serve" in Spanish, is a joint venture between NASA and the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) which provides satellite-based Earth observation data, modeling, and science applications to help developing nations in Central America, East Africa and the Himalayas improve environmental decision making. Anticipating climate variability / climate change impacts has now become an important component of the SERVIR efforts to build capacity in these regions. Uncertainty in hydrometeorological components of climate variations and exposure to extreme events across scales from weather to climate are of particular concern. We report here on work to construct scenarios or outlooks that are being developed as input drivers for decision support systems (DSSs) in a variety of settings. These DSSs are being developed jointly by a broad array NASA Applied Science Team (AST) Investigations and user communities in the three SERVIR Hub Regions, Central America, East Africa and the Himalayas. Issues span hydrologic / water resources modeling, agricultural productivity, and forest carbon reserves. The scenarios needed for these efforts encompass seasonal forecasts, interannual outlooks, and likely decadal / multi-decadal trends. Providing these scenarios across the different AST efforts enables some level of integration in considering regional responses to climate events. We will discuss a number of challenges in developing this continuum of scenarios including the identification and "mining" of predictability, addressing multiple continental regions, issues of downscaling global model integrations to regional / local applications (i.e. hydrologic and crop modeling). We compare / contrast the role of the U.S. National Multi- Model Experiment initiative in seasonal forecasts and the CMIP-5 climate model experiments in supporting these efforts. Examples of these scenarios, their use, and an assessment of their utility as well as limitations will be presented.
Consistency of Estimated Global Water Cycle Variations Over the Satellite Era
Motivated by the question of whether recent indications of decadal climate variability and a possible "climate shift" may have affected the global water balance, we examine evaporation minus precipitation (E-P) variability integrated over the global oceans and global land from three points of view-remotely sensed retrievals / objective analyses over the oceans, reanalysis vertically-integrated moisture convergence (MFC) over land, and land surface models forced with observations-based precipitation, radiation and near-surface meteorology. Because monthly variations in area-averaged atmospheric moisture storage are small and the global integral of moisture convergence must approach zero, area-integrated E-P over ocean should essentially equal precipitation minus evapotranspiration (P-ET) over land (after adjusting for ocean and land areas). Our analysis reveals considerable uncertainty in the decadal variations of ocean evaporation when integrated to global scales. This is due to differences among datasets in 10m wind speed and near-surface atmospheric specific humidity (2m qa) used in bulk aerodynamic retrievals. Precipitation variations, all relying substantially on passive microwave retrievals over ocean, still have uncertainties in decadal variability, but not to the degree present with ocean evaporation estimates. Reanalysis MFC and P-ET over land from several observationally forced diagnostic and land surface models agree best on interannual variations. However, upward MFC (i.e. P-ET) reanalysis trends are likely related in part to observing system changes affecting atmospheric assimilation models. While some evidence for a low-frequency E-P maximum near 2000 is found, consistent with a recent apparent pause in sea-surface temperature (SST) rise, uncertainties in the datasets used here remain significant. Prospects for further reducing uncertainties are discussed. The results are interpreted in the context of recent climate variability (Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Atlantic Meridional Overturning), and efforts to distinguish these modes from longer-term trends.
Consistency of Estimated Global Water Cycle Variations Over the Satellite Era
Motivated by the question of whether recent indications of decadal climate variability and a possible "climate shift" may have affected the global water balance, we examine evaporation minus precipitation (E-P) variability integrated over the global oceans and global land from three points of view-remotely sensed retrievals / objective analyses over the oceans, reanalysis vertically-integrated moisture convergence (MFC) over land, and land surface models forced with observations-based precipitation, radiation and near-surface meteorology. Because monthly variations in area-averaged atmospheric moisture storage are small and the global integral of moisture convergence must approach zero, area-integrated E-P over ocean should essentially equal precipitation minus evapotranspiration (P-ET) over land (after adjusting for ocean and land areas). Our analysis reveals considerable uncertainty in the decadal variations of ocean evaporation when integrated to global scales. This is due to differences among datasets in 10m wind speed and near-surface atmospheric specific humidity (2m qa) used in bulk aerodynamic retrievals. Precipitation variations, all relying substantially on passive microwave retrievals over ocean, still have uncertainties in decadal variability, but not to the degree present with ocean evaporation estimates. Reanalysis MFC and P-ET over land from several observationally forced diagnostic and land surface models agree best on interannual variations. However, upward MFC (i.e. P-ET) reanalysis trends are likely related in part to observing system changes affecting atmospheric assimilation models. While some evidence for a low-frequency E-P maximum near 2000 is found, consistent with a recent apparent pause in sea-surface temperature (SST) rise, uncertainties in the datasets used here remain significant. Prospects for further reducing uncertainties are discussed. The results are interpreted in the context of recent climate variability (Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Atlantic Meridional Overturning), and efforts to distinguish these modes from longer-term trends.
The Hurricane Imaging Radiometer: Present and Future
The Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) is an airborne passive microwave radiometer designed to provide high resolution, wide swath imagery of surface wind speed in tropical cyclones from a low profile planar antenna with no mechanical scanning. Wind speed and rain rate images from HIRAD's first field campaign (GRIP, 2010) are presented here followed, by a discussion on the performance of the newly installed thermal control system during the 2012 HS3 campaign. The paper ends with a discussion on the next generation dual polarization HIRAD antenna (already designed) for a future system capable of measuring wind direction as well as wind speed.
Observations of C-Band Brightness Temperatures and Ocean Surface Wind Speed and Rain Rate from the Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) during GRIP and HS3
HIRAD flew on high-altitude aircraft over Earl and Karl during NASA s GRIP (Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes) campaign in August - September of 2010, and at the time of this writing plans to fly over Atlantic tropical cyclones in September of 2012 as part of the Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) mission. HIRAD is a new C-band radiometer using a synthetic thinned array radiometer (STAR) technology to obtain cross-track resolution of approximately 3 degrees, out to approximately 60 degrees to each side of nadir. By obtaining measurements of emissions at 4, 5, 6, and 6.6 GHz, observations of ocean surface wind speed and rain rate can be retrieved. This technique has been used for many years by precursor instruments, including the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR), which has been flying on the NOAA and USAF hurricane reconnaissance aircraft for several years to obtain observations within a single footprint at nadir angle. Results from the flights during the GRIP and HS3 campaigns will be shown, including images of brightness temperatures, wind speed, and rain rate. Comparisons will be made with observations from other instruments on the campaigns, for which HIRAD observations are either directly comparable or are complementary. Features such as storm eye and eye-wall, location of storm wind and rain maxima, and indications of dynamical features such as the merging of a weaker outer wind/rain maximum with the main vortex may be seen in the data. Potential impacts on operational ocean surface wind analyses and on numerical weather forecasts will also be discussed.
Observations of C-Band Brightness Temperatures and Ocean Surface Wind Speed and Rain Rate from the Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) during GRIP and HS3
HIRAD is a new technology developed by NASA/MSFC, in partnership with NOAA and the Universities of Central Florida, Michigan, and Alabama-Huntsville. HIRAD is designed to measure wind speed and rain rate over a wide swath in heavy-rain, strong-wind conditions. HIRAD is expected to eventually fly routinely on unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) such as Global Hawk over hurricanes threatening the U.S. coast and other Atlantic basin areas, and possibly in the Western Pacific as well. HIRAD first flew on GRIP in 2010 and is part of the 2012-14 NASA Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) mission on the Global Hawk, a high-altitude UAV. The next-generation HIRAD will include wind direction observations, and the technology can eventually be used on a satellite platform to extend the dynamical range of Ocean Surface Wind (OSV) observations from space.
Upper-Ocean Heat Balance Processes and the Walker Circulation in CMIP5 Model Projections
Considerable uncertainty remains as to the importance of mechanisms governing decadal and longer variability of the Walker Circulation, its connection to the tropical climate system, and prospects for tropical climate change in the face of anthropogenic forcing. Most contemporary climate models suggest that in response to elevated CO2 and a warmer but more stratified atmosphere, the required upward mass flux in tropical convection will diminish along with the Walker component of the tropical mean circulation as well. Alternatively, there is also evidence to suggest that the shoaling and increased vertical stratification of the thermocline in the eastern Pacific will enable a muted SST increase there-- preserving or even enhancing some of the dynamical forcing for the Walker cell flow. Over the past decade there have been observational indications of an acceleration in near-surface easterlies, a strengthened Pacific zonal SST gradient, and globally-teleconnected dislocations in precipitation. But is this evidence in support of an ocean dynamical thermostat process posited to accompany anthropogenic forcing, or just residual decadal fluctuations associated with variations in warm and cold ENSO events and other stochastic forcing? From a modeling perspective we try to make headway on this question by examining zonal variations in surface energy fluxes and dynamics governing tropical upper ocean heat content evolution in the WCRP CMIP5 model projections. There is some diversity among model simulations; for example, the CCSM4 indicates net ocean warming over the IndoPacific region while the CSIRO model concentrates separate warming responses over the central Pacific and Indian Ocean regions. The models, as with observations, demonstrate strong local coupling between variations in column water vapor, downward surface longwave radiation and SST; but the spatial patterns of changes in the sign of this relationship differ among models and, for models as a whole, with observations. Our analysis focuses initially on probing the inter-model differences in energy fluxes / transports and Walker Circulation response to forcing. We then attempt to identify statistically the El Nino- / La Nina-related ocean heat content variability unique to each model and regress out the associated energy flux, ocean heat transport and Walker response on these shorter time scales for comparison to that of the anthropogenic signals.
Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) Observations of Brightness Temperatures and Ocean Surface Wind Speed and Rain Rate During NASA's GRIP and HS3 Campaigns
HIRAD flew on high-altitude aircraft over Earl and Karl during NASA s GRIP (Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes) campaign in August - September of 2010, and plans to fly over Atlantic tropical cyclones in September of 2012 as part of the Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) mission. HIRAD is a new C-band radiometer using a synthetic thinned array radiometer (STAR) technology to obtain spatial resolution of approximately 2 km, out to roughly 30 km each side of nadir. By obtaining measurements of emissions at 4, 5, 6, and 6.6 GHz, observations of ocean surface wind speed and rain rate can be retrieved. The physical retrieval technique has been used for many years by precursor instruments, including the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR), which has been flying on the NOAA and USAF hurricane reconnaissance aircraft for several years to obtain observations within a single footprint at nadir angle. Results from the flights during the GRIP and HS3 campaigns will be shown, including images of brightness temperatures, wind speed, and rain rate. Comparisons will be made with observations from other instruments on the campaigns, for which HIRAD observations are either directly comparable or are complementary. Features such as storm eye and eye-wall, location of storm wind and rain maxima, and indications of dynamical features such as the merging of a weaker outer wind/rain maximum with the main vortex may be seen in the data. Potential impacts on operational ocean surface wind analyses and on numerical weather forecasts will also be discussed.
Observations of C-band Brightness Temperature from the Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) During GRIP
HIRAD is a new technology developed by NASA/MSFC, in partnership with NOAA and the Universities of Central Florida, Michigan, and Alabama-Huntsville. HIRAD is designed to measure wind speed and rain rate over a wide swath in heavy-rain, strong-wind conditions. HIRAD is expected to eventually fly routinely on unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) such as Global Hawk over hurricanes threatening the U.S. coast and other Atlantic basin areas, and possibly in the Western Pacific as well. HIRAD first flew on GRIP in 2010 and is planned to fly 2012-14 on the NASA Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) missions on the Global Hawk, a high-altitude UAV. HIRAD technology will eventually be used on a satellite platform to extend the dynamical range of Ocean Surface Wind (OSV) observations from space.
New Observations of C-band Brightness Temperatures and Ocean Surface Wind Speed and Rain Rate From the Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD)
HIRAD flew on the WB-57 during NASA's GRIP (Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes) campaign in August September of 2010. HIRAD is a new C-band radiometer using a synthetic thinned array radiometer (STAR) technology to obtain cross-track resolution of approximately 3 degrees, out to approximately 60 degrees to each side of nadir. By obtaining measurements of emissions at 4, 5, 6, and 6.6 GHz, observations of ocean surface wind speed and rain rate can be retrieved. This technique has been used for many years by precursor instruments, including the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR), which has been flying on the NOAA and USAF hurricane reconnaissance aircraft for several years to obtain observations within a single footprint at nadir angle. Results from the flights during the GRIP campaign will be shown, including images of brightness temperatures, wind speed, and rain rate. Comparisons will be made with observations from other instruments on the GRIP campaign, for which HIRAD observations are either directly comparable or are complementary. Features such as storm eye and eyewall, location of storm wind and rain maxima, and indications of dynamical features such as the merging of a weaker outer wind/rain maximum with the main vortex may be seen in the data. Potential impacts on operational ocean surface wind analyses and on numerical weather forecasts will also be discussed.
Observations of C-band Brightness Temperatures and Ocean Surface Wind Speed and Rain Rate from the Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD)
HIRAD flew on the WB-57 over Earl and Karl during NASA s GRIP (Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes) campaign in August - September of 2010. HIRAD is a new Cband radiometer using a synthetic thinned array radiometer (STAR) technology to obtain cross-track resolution of approximately 3 degrees, out to approximately 60 degrees to each side of nadir. (The resulting swath width for a platform at 60,000 feet is roughly 60 km, and resolution for most of the swath is around 2 km.) By obtaining measurements of emissions at 4, 5, 6, and 6.6 GHz, observations of ocean surface wind speed and rain rate can be retrieved. This technique has been used for many years by precursor instruments, including the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR), which has been flying on the NOAA and USAF hurricane reconnaissance aircraft for several years to obtain observations within a single footprint at nadir angle. Results from the flights during the GRIP campaign will be shown, including images of brightness temperatures, wind speed, and rain rate. Comparisons will be made with observations from other instruments on the GRIP campaign, for which HIRAD observations are either directly comparable or are complementary. Features such as storm eye and eyewall, location of storm wind and rain maxima, and indications of dynamical features such as the merging of a weaker outer wind/rain maximum with the main vortex may be seen in the data. Potential impacts on operational ocean surface wind analyses and on numerical weather forecasts will also be discussed.
Tropical Climate Variability During the Satellite Era: What Can We Infer About Climate Sensitivity?
No abstract available
Estimation of squeeze-film damping and inertial coefficients from experimental free-decay data
The results are given for an experimental program concerned with a parametric identification of the damping and inertial coefficients of a cylindrical squeeze-film bearing, through an analysis of transient response data. The results enable the operating range for which a linear model of the squeeze-film is appropriate to be determined. Comparisons are made between the estimated coefficients and theoretical predictions. Presentation is by courtesy of the Council of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, London.