A climatically significant abiotic mechanism driving carbon loss and nitrogen limitation in peat bogs
Not Available
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Engineering topics
Riley, William J.
Publications and source records attributed to Riley, William J..
Critical needs to close monitoring gaps in pan-tropical wetland CH 4 emissions
Global wetlands are the largest and most uncertain natural source of atmospheric methane (CH 4 ). The FLUXNET-CH 4 synthesis initiative has established a global network of flux tower infrastructure, offering valuable data products and fostering a dedicated community for the measurement and analysis of methane flux data. Existing studies using the FLUXNET-CH 4 Community Product v1.0 have provided invaluable insights into the drivers of ecosystem-to-regional spatial patterns and daily-to-decadal temporal dynamics in temperate, boreal, and Arctic climate regions. However, as the wetland CH 4 monitoring network grows, there is a critical knowledge gap about where new monitoring infrastructure ought to be located to improve understanding of the global wetland CH 4 budget. Here we address this gap with a spatial representativeness analysis at existing and hypothetical observation sites, using 16 process-based wetland biogeochemistry models and machine learning. We find that, in addition to eddy covariance monitoring sites, existing chamber sites are important complements, especially over high latitudes and the tropics. Furthermore, expanding the current monitoring network for wetland CH 4 emissions should prioritize, first, tropical and second, sub-tropical semi-arid wetland regions. Considering those new hypothetical wetland sites from tropical and semi-arid climate zones could significantly improve global estimates of wetland CH 4 emissions and reduce bias by 79% (from 76 to 16 TgCH 4 y -1 ), compared with using solely existing monitoring networks. Our study thus demonstrates an approach for long-term strategic expansion of flux observations.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Functional-type modeling approach and data-driven parameterization of methane emissions in wetlands (Final Technical Science Report)
Our goals are to improve understanding and quantitative representation of the multiple processes that affect methane emissions at a high (patch level, vertically detailed) spatial resolution, and translate this understanding to improved modeling capability of coastal wetland fluxes using the E3SM Land Model (ELM v1) wetland CH4 biogeochemistry module. We propose an experimental approach to identify and parameterize uncertainties in ELM. Understanding of methane emissions can be improved along three conceptual axes: (i) horizontal (ecohydrological patch resolution), (ii) vertical (through the depth of the soil column), and (iii) process level (e.g., resolving microbial pathways, vegetation specific transport pathways). Along each of the three axes, we will characterize, quantify, and model, the key ecological, hydrological, and meteorological controls of methane (CH4) flux heterogeneity in four model coastal wetlands.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Variability and Quasi-Decadal Changes in the Methane Budget over the Period 2000-2012
Following the recent Global Carbon Project (GCP) synthesis of the decadal methane (CH4) budget over 2000- 2012, we analyse here the same dataset with a focus on quasi-decadal and inter-annual variability in CH4 emissions. The GCP dataset integrates results from top-down studies (exploiting atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modelling framework) and bottom-up models (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry), inventories of anthropogenic emissions, and data-driven approaches. The annual global methane emissions from top-down studies, which by construction match the observed methane growth rate within their uncertainties, all show an increase in total methane emissions over the period 2000-2012, but this increase is not linear over the 13 years. Despite differences between individual studies, the mean emission anomaly of the top-down ensemble shows no significant trend in total methane emissions over the period 2000-2006, during the plateau of atmospheric methane mole fractions, and also over the period 2008-2012, during the renewed atmospheric methane increase. However, the top-down ensemble mean produces an emission shift between 2006 and 2008, leading to 22 [16-32] Tg CH4 yr(exp -1) higher methane emissions over the period 2008-2012 compared to 2002-2006. This emission increase mostly originated from the tropics, with a smaller contribution from mid-latitudes and no significant change from boreal regions. The regional contributions remain uncertain in top-down studies. Tropical South America and South and East Asia seem to contribute the most to the emission increase in the tropics. However, these two regions have only limited atmospheric measurements and remain therefore poorly constrained. The sectorial partitioning of this emission increase between the periods 2002-2006 and 2008-2012 differs from one atmospheric inversion study to another. However, all top-down studies suggest smaller changes in fossil fuel emissions (from oil, gas, and coal industries) compared to the mean of the bottom-up inventories included in this study. This difference is partly driven by a smaller emission change in China from the top-down studies compared to the estimate in the Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGARv4.2) inventory, which should be revised to smaller values in a near future. We apply isotopic signatures to the emission changes estimated for individual studies based on five emission sectors and find that for six individual top-down studies (out of eight) the average isotopic signature of the emission changes is not consistent with the observed change in atmospheric 13CH4. However, the partitioning in emission change derived from the ensemble mean is consistent with this isotopic constraint. At the global scale, the top-down ensemble mean suggests that the dominant contribution to the resumed atmospheric CH4 growth after 2006 comes from microbial sources (more from agriculture and waste sectors than from natural wetlands), with an uncertain but smaller contribution from fossil CH4 emissions. In addition, a decrease in biomass burning emissions (in agreement with the biomass burning emission databases) makes the balance of sources consistent with atmospheric 13CH4 observations. In most of the top-down studies included here, OH concentrations are considered constant over the years (seasonal variations but without any inter-annual variability). As a result, the methane loss (in particular through OH oxidation) varies mainly through the change in methane concentrations and not its oxidants. For these reasons, changes in the methane loss could not be properly investigated in this study, although it may play a significant role in the recent atmospheric methane changes as briefly discussed at the end of the paper.
Saunois, Marielle↗
Global Wetland Contribution to 2000-2012 Atmospheric Methane Growth Rate Dynamics
Increasing atmospheric methane (CH4) concentrations have contributed to approximately 20% of anthropogenic climate change. Despite the importance of CH4 as a greenhouse gas, its atmospheric growth rate and dynamics over the past two decades, which include a stabilization period (1999-2006), followed by renewed growth starting in 2007, remain poorly understood. We provide an updated estimate of CH4 emissions from wetlands, the largest natural global CH4 source, for 2000-2012 using an ensemble of biogeochemical models constrained with remote sensing surface inundation and inventory-based wetland area data. Between 2000-2012, boreal wetland CH4 emissions increased by 1.2 Tg yr(sup -1) (-0.2-3.5 Tg yr(sup -1), tropical emissions decreased by 0.9 Tg yr(sup -1) (-3.2-1.1 Tg yr(sup -1), yet globally, emissions remained unchanged at 184 +/- 22 Tg yr(sup -1). Changing air temperature was responsible for increasing high-latitude emissions whereas declines in low-latitude wetland area decreased tropical emissions; both dynamics are consistent with features of predicted centennial-scale climate change impacts on wetland CH4 emissions. Despite uncertainties in wetland area mapping, our study shows that global wetland CH4 emissions have not contributed significantly to the period of renewed atmospheric CH4 growth, and is consistent with findings from studies that indicate some combination of increasing fossil fuel and agriculture-related CH4 emissions, and a decrease in the atmospheric oxidative sink.
Poulter, Benjamin↗
The Global Methane Budget 2000-2012
The global methane (CH4) budget is becoming an increasingly important component for managing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. This relevance, due to a shorter atmospheric lifetime and a stronger warming potential than carbon dioxide, is challenged by the still unexplained changes of atmospheric CH4 over the past decade. Emissions and concentrations of CH4 are continuing to increase, making CH4 the second most important human-induced greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide. Two major difficulties in reducing uncertainties come from the large variety of diffusive CH4 sources that overlap geographically, and from the destruction of CH4 by the very short-lived hydroxyl radical (OH). To address these difficulties, we have established a consortium of multi-disciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to synthesize and stimulate research on the methane cycle, and producing regular (approximately biennial) updates of the global methane budget. This consortium includes atmospheric physicists and chemists, biogeochemists of surface and marine emissions, and socio-economists who study anthropogenic emissions. Following Kirschke et al. (2013), we propose here the first version of a living review paper that integrates results of top-down studies (exploiting atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modeling framework) and bottom-up models, inventories and data-driven approaches (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry, and inventories for anthropogenic emissions, data-driven extrapolations).For the 2003-2012 decade, global methane emissions are estimated by top-down inversions at 558 TgCH4 yr(exp -1), range 540-568. About 60 of global emissions are anthropogenic (range 50-65%). Since 2010, the bottom-up global emission inventories have been closer to methane emissions in the most carbon-intensive Representative Concentrations Pathway (RCP8.5) and higher than all other RCP scenarios. Bottom-up approaches suggest larger global emissions (736 TgCH4 yr(exp -1), range 596-884) mostly because of larger natural emissions from individual sources such as inland waters, natural wetlands and geological sources. Considering the atmospheric constraints on the top-down budget, it is likely that some of the individual emissions reported by the bottom-up approaches are overestimated, leading to too large global emissions. Latitudinal data from top-down emissions indicate a predominance of tropical emissions (approximately 64% of the global budget, less than 30deg N) as compared to mid (approximately 32%, 30-60deg N) and high northern latitudes (approximately 4%, 60-90deg N). Top-down inversions consistently infer lower emissions in China (approximately 58 TgCH4 yr(exp -1), range 51-72, minus14% ) and higher emissions in Africa (86 TgCH4 yr(exp -1), range 73-108, plus 19% ) than bottom-up values used as prior estimates. Overall, uncertainties for anthropogenic emissions appear smaller than those from natural sources, and the uncertainties on source categories appear larger for top-down inversions than for bottom-up inventories and models. The most important source of uncertainty on the methane budget is attributable to emissions from wetland and other inland waters. We show that the wetland extent could contribute 30-40% on the estimated range for wetland emissions. Other priorities for improving the methane budget include the following: (i) the development of process-based models for inland-water emissions, (ii) the intensification of methane observations at local scale (flux measurements) to constrain bottom-up land surface models, and at regional scale (surface networks and satellites) to constrain top-down inversions, (iii) improvements in the estimation of atmospheric loss by OH, and (iv) improvements of the transport models integrated in top-down inversions. The data presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (http://doi.org/10.3334/CDIAC/GLOBAL_ METHANE_BUDGET_2016_V1.1) and the Global Carbon Project.
Saunois, Marielle↗
2016 International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) Workshop Report
As earth system models (ESMs) become increasingly complex, there is a growing need for comprehensive and multi-faceted evaluation of model projections. To advance understanding of terrestrial biogeochemical processes and their interactions with hydrology and climate under conditions of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide, new analysis methods are required that use observations to constrain model predictions, inform model development, and identify needed measurements and field experiments. Better representations of biogeochemistryclimate feedbacks and ecosystem processes in these models are essential for reducing the acknowledged substantial uncertainties in 21st century climate change projections.
earth system models (ESMs)↗
Uncertainty of stability variances based on finite differences
This work gives an algorithm for computing the degrees of freedom of estimators of Allan and Hadamard variances, including their modified versions. A consistent aproach is used throughout.
Riley, William J.↗
Rubidium atomic frequency standards for GPS Block IIR
The Rubidium Atomic Frequency Standards (RAFS) were provided for the GPS Block IIR NAVSTAR satellites. These satellites will replenish and upgrade the space segment of the Global Positioning System in the mid 1990s. The GPS RAFS Rb clocks are the latest generation of the high-performance rubidium frequency standards. They offer an aging rate in the low pp 10(exp 14)/day range and a drift-corrected 1-day stability in the low pp 10(exp 14) range. The Block IIR version of these devices will have improved performance, higher reliability, smaller size, and greater radiation hardness. The GPS Block IIR atomic clocks have a natural frequency configuration whereby they output a frequency of about 13.4 MHz that is a submultiple of the atomic resonance of Rb (or Cs). The RAFS operates at a low, fixed C-field for increased stability. The GPS Block IIR RAFS design, including the changes and improvements made, and the test results obtained are described.
Riley, William J.↗
The physics of the environmental sensitivity of rubidium gas cell atomic frequency standards
Environmental sensitivity is often the most significant limitation to the practical stability of rubidium frequency standards (RFS). For example, temperature sensitivity can cause a rapid frequency change of several parts in 10(exp 10) for a tactical RFS that has an aging of only 1 times 10(exp -11)/month. Other important environmental factors are barometric pressure, vibration, magnetic field, and nuclear radiation. The physical mechanisms that lie behind these environmental sensitivities are considered. These physical mechanisms are related to the performance of actual rubidium frequency standards. For the user of these devices, a better knowledge of the causes for Rb clock instability will aid in their testing and proper application. For the time frequency specialist, a review of these factors may prove useful toward improving RFS design. Some of the RFS environmental sensitivities are due to simple physical mechanisms like the effect of dc magnetic field on the Rb hyperfine resonance frequency. For these, an analysis can be based on physical principles and straightforward design factors. Other environment factors, like temperature sensitivity, are more complex combinations of many effects, both physical and practical, and the analysis often takes the form of an error budget with large unit-to-unit variations. Today's rubidium frequency standards span a wide performance range from small, inexpensive units with pp 10(exp 10) error budgets to larger, higher performance versions offering pp 10(exp 10) stabilities. For both extremes, however, environmental sensitivity can be the most significant performance limitation. Why this is the case and how to make improvements are discussed.
Riley, William J.↗