Engineering topics

Riley, Pete

Publications and source records attributed to Riley, Pete.

At least 19 records

DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of FluSight influenza forecasting in the 2021–22 and 2022–23 seasons with a new target laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalizations

Accurate forecasts can enable more effective public health responses during seasonal influenza epidemics. For the 2021–22 and 2022–23 influenza seasons, 26 forecasting teams provided national and jurisdiction-specific probabilistic predictions of weekly confirmed influenza hospital admissions for one-to-four weeks ahead. Forecast skill is evaluated using the Weighted Interval Score (WIS), relative WIS, and coverage. Six out of 23 models outperform the baseline model across forecast weeks and locations in 2021–22 and 12 out of 18 models in 2022–23. Averaging across all forecast targets, the FluSight ensemble is the 2nd most accurate model measured by WIS in 2021–22 and the 5th most accurate in the 2022–23 season. Forecast skill and 95% coverage for the FluSight ensemble and most component models degrade over longer forecast horizons. In this work we demonstrate that while the FluSight ensemble was a robust predictor, even ensembles face challenges during periods of rapid change.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

How open data and interdisciplinary collaboration improve our understanding of space weather: A risk and resiliency perspective

Space weather refers to conditions around a star, like our Sun, and its interplanetary space that may affect space- and ground-based assets as well as human life. Space weather can manifest as many different phenomena, often simultaneously, and can create complex and sometimes dangerous conditions. The study of space weather is inherently trans-disciplinary, including subfields of solar, magnetospheric, ionospheric, and atmospheric research communities, but benefiting from collaborations with policymakers, industry, astrophysics, software engineering, and many more. Effective communication is required between scientists, the end-user community, and government organizations to ensure that we are prepared for any adverse space weather effects. With the rapid growth of the field in recent years, the upcoming Solar Cycle 25 maximum, and the evolution of research-ready technologies, we believe that space weather deserves a reexamination in terms of a “risk and resiliency” framework. By utilizing open data science, cross-disciplinary collaborations, information systems, and citizen science, we can forge stronger partnerships between science and industry and improve our readiness as a society to mitigate space weather impacts. The objective of this manuscript is to raise awareness of these concepts as we approach a solar maximum that coincides with an increasingly technology-dependent society, and introduce a unique way of approaching space weather through the lens of a risk and resiliency framework that can be used to further assess areas of improvement in the field.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2020

The Heliospheric Current Sheet in the Inner Heliosphere Observed by the Parker Solar Probe

The Parker Solar Probe (PSP) completed its first solar encounter in 2018 November, bringing it closer to the Sun than any previous mission. This allowed in situ investigation of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) inside the orbit of Venus. The Parker observations reveal a well defined magnetic sector structure placing the spacecraft in a negative polarity region for most of the encounter. The observed current sheet crossings are compared to the predictions of both potential field source surface and magnetohydrodynamic models. All the model predictions are in good qualitative agreement with the observed crossings of the HCS. The models also generally agree that the HCS was nearly parallel with the solar equator during the inbound leg of the encounter and more significantly inclined during the outbound portion. The current sheet crossings at PSP are also compared to similar measurements made by the Wind spacecraft near Earth at 1 au. After allowing for orbital geometry and propagation effects, a remarkable agreement has been found between the observations of these two spacecraft underlying the large-scale stability of the HCS. Finally, the detailed magnetic field and plasma structure of each crossing is analyzed. Marked differences were observed between PSP and Wind measurements in the type of structures found near the HCS. This suggests that significant evolution of these small solar wind structures takes place before they reach 1 au.

Szabo, Adam↗

NASA NTRS2018

Forecasting the Arrival Time of Coronal Mass Ejections: Analysis of the CCMC CME Scoreboard

Accurate forecasting of the properties of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) as they approach Earth is now recognized as an important strategic objective for both NOAA and NASA. The time of arrival of such events is a key parameter, one that had been anticipated to be relatively straightforward to constrain. In this study, we analyze forecasts submitted to the Community Coordinated Modeling Center at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center over the last 6 years to answer the following questions: (1) How well do these models forecast the arrival time of CME-driven shocks? (2) What are the uncertainties associated with these forecasts? (3) Which model(s) perform best? (4) Have the models become more accurate during the past 6 years? We analyze all forecasts made by 32 models from 2013 through mid-2018, and additionally focus on 28 events, all of which were forecasted by six models. We find that the models are generally able to predict CME-shock arrival times, in an average sense, to within Â±10 hr, but with standard deviations often exceeding 20 hr. The best performers, on the other hand, maintained a mean error (bias) of 1 hr, a mean absolute error of 13 hr, and a precision (standard deviation) of 15 hr. Finally, there is no evidence that the forecasts have become more accurate during this interval. We discuss the intrinsic simplifications of thevarious models analyzed, the limitations of this investigation, and suggest possible paths to improve these forecasts in the future.

space weather↗

NASA NTRS2017

Particle Radiation Sources, Propagation and Interactions in Deep Space, at Earth, the Moon, Mars, and Beyond: Examples of Radiation Interactions and Effects

Particle radiation has significant effects for astronauts, satellites and planetary bodies throughout the Solar System. Acute space radiation hazards pose risks to human and robotic exploration. This radiation also naturally weathers the exposed surface regolith of the Moon, the two moons of Mars, and other airless bodies, and contributes to chemical evolution of planetary atmospheres at Earth, Mars, Venus, Titan, and Pluto. We provide a select review of recent areas of research covering the origin of SEPs from coronal mass ejections low in the corona, propagation of events through the solar system during the anomalously weak solar cycle 24 and important examples of radiation interactions for Earth, other planets and airless bodies such as the Moon.

Schwadron, Nathan A.↗

DOE OSTI2016

MHD simulation of the Bastille day event

We describe a time-dependent, thermodynamic, three-dimensional MHD simulation of the July 14, 2000 coronal mass ejection (CME) and flare. The simulation starts with a background corona developed using an MDI-derived magnetic map for the boundary condition. Flux ropes using the modified Titov-Demoulin (TDm) model are used to energize the pre-event active region, which is then destabilized by photospheric flows that cancel flux near the polarity inversion line. More than 10{sup 33} ergs are impulsively released in the simulated eruption, driving a CME at 1500 km/s, close to the observed speed of 1700km/s. The post-flare emission in the simulation is morphologically similar to the observed post-flare loops. The resulting flux rope that propagates to 1 AU is similar in character to the flux rope observed at 1 AU, but the simulated ICME center passes 15° north of Earth.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2016

Properties of the fast forward shock driven by the 2012 July 23 extreme coronal mass ejection

Late on 2012 July 23, the STEREO-A spacecraft encountered a fast forward shock driven by a coronal mass ejection (CME) launched from the Sun earlier that same day. The estimated travel time of the disturbance (∼20 hr), together with the massive magnetic field strengths measured within the ejecta (>100 nT), made it one of the most extreme events observed during the space era. In this study, we examine the properties of the shock wave. Because of an instrument malfunction, plasma measurements during the interval surrounding the CME were limited, and our approach has been modified to capitalize on the available measurements and suitable proxies, where possible. We were able to infer the following properties. First, the shock normal was pointing predominantly in the radial direction (n=0.97e{sub r}−0.09e{sub t}−0.23e{sub n}). Second, the angle between n and the upstream magnetic field, θ{sub Bn}, was estimated to be ≈34°, making the shock “quasi-parallel,” and supporting the idea of an earlier “preconditioning” ICME. Third, the shock speed was estimated to be ≈3300 km s{sup −1}. Fourth, the sonic Mach number, M{sub s}, for this shock was ∼28. We support these results with an idealized numerical simulation of the ICME. Finally, we estimated the change in ram pressure upstream of the shock to be ∼5 times larger than the pressure from the energetic particles, suggesting that this cosmic-ray modified shock had not reached steady-state, but instead, had been caught in an early, transient phase in its evolution.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2015

3D ELECTRON DENSITY DISTRIBUTIONS IN THE SOLAR CORONA DURING SOLAR MINIMA: ASSESSMENT FOR MORE REALISTIC SOLAR WIND MODELING

Knowledge of the electron density distribution in the solar corona put constraints on the magnetic field configurations for coronal modeling and on initial conditions for solar wind modeling. We work with polarized SOHO/LASCO-C2 images from the last two recent minima of solar activity (1996–1997 and 2008–2010), devoid of coronal mass ejections. The goals are to derive the 4D electron density distributions in the corona by applying a newly developed time-dependent tomographic reconstruction method and to compare the results between the two solar minima and with two magnetohydrodynamic models. First, we confirm that the values of the density distribution in thermodynamic models are more realistic than in polytropic ones. The tomography provides more accurate distributions in the polar regions, and we find that the density in tomographic and thermodynamic solutions varies with the solar cycle in both polar and equatorial regions. Second, we find that the highest-density structures do not always correspond to the predicted large-scale heliospheric current sheet or its helmet streamer but can follow the locations of pseudo-streamers. We deduce that tomography offers reliable density distributions in the corona, reproducing the slow time evolution of coronal structures, without prior knowledge of the coronal magnetic field over a full rotation. Finally, we suggest that the highest-density structures show a differential rotation well above the surface depending on how they are magnetically connected to the surface. Such valuable information on the rotation of large-scale structures could help to connect the sources of the solar wind to their in situ counterparts in future missions such as Solar Orbiter and Solar Probe Plus.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2015

INFERRING THE STRUCTURE OF THE SOLAR CORONA AND INNER HELIOSPHERE DURING THE MAUNDER MINIMUM USING GLOBAL THERMODYNAMIC MAGNETOHYDRODYNAMIC SIMULATIONS

Observations of the Sun’s corona during the space era have led to a picture of relatively constant, but cyclically varying solar output and structure. Longer-term, more indirect measurements, such as from {sup 10}Be, coupled by other albeit less reliable contemporaneous reports, however, suggest periods of significant departure from this standard. The Maunder Minimum was one such epoch where: (1) sunspots effectively disappeared for long intervals during a 70 yr period; (2) eclipse observations suggested the distinct lack of a visible K-corona but possible appearance of the F-corona; (3) reports of aurora were notably reduced; and (4) cosmic ray intensities at Earth were inferred to be substantially higher. Using a global thermodynamic MHD model, we have constructed a range of possible coronal configurations for the Maunder Minimum period and compared their predictions with these limited observational constraints. We conclude that the most likely state of the corona during—at least—the later portion of the Maunder Minimum was not merely that of the 2008/2009 solar minimum, as has been suggested recently, but rather a state devoid of any large-scale structure, driven by a photospheric field composed of only ephemeral regions, and likely substantially reduced in strength. Moreover, we suggest that the Sun evolved from a 2008/2009-like configuration at the start of the Maunder Minimum toward an ephemeral-only configuration by the end of it, supporting a prediction that we may be on the cusp of a new grand solar minimum.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2014

Synthesis of 3-D Coronal-Solar Wind Energetic Particle Acceleration Modules

Acute space radiation hazards pose one of the most serious risks to future human and robotic exploration. Large solar energetic particle (SEP) events are dangerous to astronauts and equipment. The ability to predict when and where large SEPs will occur is necessary in order to mitigate their hazards. The Coronal-Solar Wind Energetic Particle Acceleration (C-SWEPA) modeling effort in the NASANSF Space Weather Modeling Collaborative [Schunk, 2014] combines two successful Living With a Star (LWS) (http:lws.gsfc.nasa.gov) strategic capabilities: the Earth-Moon-Mars Radiation Environment Modules (EMMREM)[Schwadron et al., 2010] that describe energetic particles and their effects, with the Next Generation Model forthe Corona and Solar Wind developed by the Predictive Science, Inc. (PSI) group. The goal of the C-WEPA effort is to develop a coupled model that describes the conditions of the corona, solar wind, coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and associated shocks, particle acceleration, and propagation via physics-based modules. Assessing the threat of SEPs is a difficult problem. The largest SEPs typically arise in conjunction with X classflares and very fast (1000 kms) CMEs. These events are usually associated with complex sunspot groups(also known as active regions) that harbor strong, stressed magnetic fields. Highly energetic protonsgenerated in these events travel near the speed of light and can arrive at Earth minutes after the eruptiveevent. The generation of these particles is, in turn, believed to be primarily associated with the shock waveformed very low in the corona by the passage of the CME (injection of particles fromthe flare sitemay also playa role). Whether these particles actually reach Earth (or any other point) depends on their transport in theinterplanetary magnetic field and their magnetic connection to the shock.

exploration↗

DOE OSTI2013

MAGNETOHYDRODYNAMIC SIMULATIONS OF INTERPLANETARY CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS

We describe a new MHD model for the propagation of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) in the solar wind. Accurately following the propagation of ICMEs is important for determining space weather conditions. Our model solves the MHD equations in spherical coordinates from a lower boundary above the critical point to Earth and beyond. On this spherical surface, we prescribe the magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature calculated typically directly from a coronal MHD model as time-dependent boundary conditions. However, any model that can provide such quantities either in the inertial or rotating frame of the Sun is suitable. We present two validations of the technique employed in our new model and a more realistic simulation of the propagation of an ICME from the Sun to Earth.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2013

The challenge in making models of fast CMEs

It has been a challenge to explain theoretically how fast CMEs (exceeding {approx} 1,000km/s) occur. Our numerical models suggest that it is not easy to release enough magnetic energy impulsively from an active region. We have been studying CME models that are constrained by observed magnetic fields, with realistic coronal plasma density and temperature profiles, as derived from thermodynamic models of the corona. We find that to get fast CMEs, the important parameters are the magnetic energy density, the magnetic field drop-off index, and the Alfven speed profile in active regions. We describe how we energize active regions, and how we subsequently initiate CMEs via flux cancellation. We contrast CMEs from idealized zero-beta models with more sophisticated models based on thermodynamic solutions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2012

On the Probability of Occurrence of Extreme Space Weather Events

By virtue of their rarity, extreme space weather events, such as the Carrington event of 1859, are difficult to study, their rates of occurrence are difficult to estimate, and prediction of a specific future event is virtually impossible. Additionally, events may be extreme relative to one parameter but normal relative to others. In this study, we analyze several measures of the severity of space weather events (flare intensity, coronal mass ejection speeds, Dst, and greater than 30 MeV proton fluences as inferred from nitrate records) to estimate the probability of occurrence of extreme events. By showing that the frequency of occurrence scales as an inverse power of the severity of the event, and assuming that this relationship holds at higher magnitudes, we are able to estimate the probability that an event larger than some criteria will occur within a certain interval of time in the future. For example, the probability of another Carrington event (based on Dst less than - 850 nT) occurring within the next decade is approximately 12%. We also identify and address several limitations with this approach. In particular, we assume time stationarity, and thus, the effects of long-term space climate change are not considered. While this technique cannot be used to predict specific events, it may ultimately be useful for probabilistic forecasting.

Riley, Pete↗

NASA NTRS2008

Using Global Simulations to Relate the Three-Part Structure of Coronal Mass Ejections to In Situ Signatures

White-light observations of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) often show the classic "three-part" structure consisting of (1) a bright front; (2) a dark cavity; and (3) a bright, compact core. It has proven difficult to unambiguously associate these features with in situ measurements of interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs), in all but a few cases. In this study we use a global MHD model to simulate the eruption and evolution of a CME out to 0.25 AU, allowing us to continuously track these features from the Sun and through the solar wind. Our results support the generally held view that the interplanetary flux rope corresponds to the dark cavity. We find that the bright front merges with solar wind material swept up by the ICME. Thus, the sheath material found ahead of fast ejecta is in fact composed from both ambient solar wind material, as well the bright front. We also note that, in this simulation, the bright front is formed from the overlying streamer configuration from within which the CME erupted and is not itself coronal material swept up during the early phase of the eruption. The conclusions reached in this study are undoubtedly sensitive to the initial configuration and mechanism used to initiate the CME, and thus care should be taken when using them to interpret specific observations. On the other hand, they provide a unique, unbroken connection between remote solar and interplanetary observations. Ultimately, detailed comparisons between observations and simulation results may be able to constrain or even rule out some mechanisms of CME initiation

Riley, Pete↗

NASA NTRS2008

Using Global Simulations to Relate the Three-Part Structure of Coronal Mass Ejections to in Situ Signatures

Riley, Pete↗

NASA NTRS2007

An Alternative Interpretation of the Relationship between the Inferred Open Solar Flux and the Interplanetary Magnetic Field

Photospheric observations at the Wilcox Solar Observatory (WSO) represent an uninterrupted data set of 32 years and are therefore unique for modeling variations in the magnetic structure of the corona and inner heliosphere over three solar cycles. For many years, modelers have applied a latitudinal correction factor to these data, believing that it provided a better estimate of the line-of-sight magnetic field. Its application was defended by arguing that the computed open flux matched observations of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) significantly better than the original WSO correction factor. However, no physically based argument could be made for its use. In this Letter we explore the implications of using the constant correction factor on the value and variation of the computed open solar flux and its relationship to the measured IMF. We find that it does not match the measured IMF at 1 AU except at and surrounding solar minimum. However, we argue that interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) may provide sufficient additional magnetic flux to the extent that a remarkably good match is found between the sum of the computed open flux and inferred ICME flux and the measured flux at 1 AU. If further substantiated, the implications of this interpretation may be significant, including a better understanding of the structure and strength of the coronal field and I N providing constraints for theories of field line transport in the corona, the modulation of galactic cosmic rays, and even possibly terrestrial climate effects.

Riley, Pete↗

NASA NTRS2007

On the Origin of Near-Radial Magnetic Fields in the Heliosphere: Numerical Simulations

Deviations from the direction of the "Parker spiral" can be found in in situ measurements of the interplanetary magnetic field on essentially all scales. One intriguing subset is the intervals of near-radial magnetic field, lasting for many hours. Some such intervals are obviously associated with coronal mass ejections, while others appear to be embedded within the ambient solar wind. Most occur on declining speed profiles, such that, when mapped back to the Sun, an entire radial field interval appears to have been launched at approximately the same time. It has been proposed that these events are the result of abrupt, semipermanent speed decreases on these field lines close to the Sun, and that such speed changes might be due to interchange reconnection. In this study, we use a three-dimensional, time-dependent magnetohydrodynamic model to assess to what extent this can account for near-radial magnetic fields observed relatively far out in the heliosphere. We find that sudden speed drops on the trailing portions of high-speed flows can produce strongly underwound (that is near radial) field lines in the heliosphere, although significantly larger speed gradients are required than are typically observed. Moreover, the simulations also reproduce the decreases in density, temperature, and magnetic field strength that are also commonly observed within these events. The question of what produces the abrupt speed drops remains to be answered.

Mikic, Zoran↗

NASA NTRS2007

"Bursty" Reconnection Following Solar Eruptions: MHD Simulations and Comparison with Observations

Posteruptive arcades are frequently seen in the aftermath of coronal mass ejections (CMEs). The formation of these loops at successively higher altitudes, coupled with the classic "two-ribbon" flare seen in H-alpha, are interpreted as reconnection of the coronal magnetic field that has been dragged outward by the CME. White-light observations of "rays," which have been interpreted as being coincident with the current sheet at the reconnection site underneath the erupting CME, also provide evidence for its occurrence. "Blobs" occasionally seen within these rays suggest an even richer level of structure. In this report, we present numerical simulations that reproduce both the observed rays and the formation and evolution of the blobs. We compare their properties with SOHO/LASCO observations of similar structures, and relate their formation to standard theories of reconnection,

Riley, Pete↗