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Ricky Egeland

Publications and source records attributed to Ricky Egeland.

10 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2023

Deciphering Solar Magnetic Activity: The (Solar) Hale Cycle Terminator of 2021

McIntosh and colleagues identified an event in the solar timeline that appeared to play a role in how Sunspot Cycle 23 (SC23) transitioned into Sunspot Cycle 24 (SC24). The timeframe for this transition was rapid, taking place in as short as time as a solar rotation. M2014 inferred that the transition observed was a critical episode for the Sun’s global-scale magnetic field that was being manifest in the spatially and temporally overlapping and magnetic systems belonging to the Sun’s 22-year (Hale) magnetic cycle. These events have been dubbed as Hale Cycle terminations, or ‘terminators’ for short. Further exploration revealed a relationship between terminator separation (as a measure of overlap in the Hale Cycles) and the upcoming sunspot cycle amplitude. McIntosh and colleagues extrapolated upon this relationship to identify the termination of the SC24 carrying Hale Cycle band in Mid-2020 and inferred that this would result in a very large Sunspot Cycle 25 (SC25). This paper presents observational analysis of the end of SC24 and the initial months of SC25 growth following a terminator that occurred in mid-December 2021 (approximately 12/13/2021). We use the December 2021 terminator to finalize the forecast of SC25 amplitude 184 (±17 with 95% confidence, and ±63 with 68% confidence). Finally, we use other terminator-related superposed epoch analyses to project the timing of SC25 maxima in late 2023 to mid 2024.

Sun↗
NASA NTRS2022

Space Weather Operations and the need for Multiple Solar Observational Vantage Points

The current operational dimension available for space weather analysis and operations is not suitable for deep space exploration. As NASA plans for missions beyond the Low Earth Orbit (LEO), new advancements in modeling, observations and communications are needed to establish a suitable monitoring and protection environment for the missions and the crew. The initial step is to establish multiple observational points that will improve the current capabilities and extend them to deep space exploration missions. We described the value and the current gaps with some examples, and then offered ideas on missions and international collaborations that will fill up the current gaps. These missions are the key for a successful future in human deep space exploration.

Yaireska Collado-Vega↗
NASA NTRS2022

Advancing Solar Energetic Particle Forecasting

With growing interest from the aviation and satellite industries, and for NASA’s upcoming Artemis lunar missions, the need for improved scientific understanding and accurate forecasting of solar energetic particle events has never been stronger. In this paper we discuss the observational, validation and model transition support required to achieve these goals. Well-calibrated, high-quality energetic electron, proton, and ion measurements are essential. Expansions to the fields of view offered by current X-ray, extreme ultraviolet and coronagraph instruments, to obtain increased coverage of the solar corona and heliosphere, from vantage points off the Sun-Earth line, are desired for model input. New observations of suprathermal particles are needed to characterize seed particle distributions and low latency space-based observations of solar radio emissions are also desired. Together, this observational suite should offer high cadence, low latency, reliable and accurate space weather data streams. Consistent, extensive and quantitative model validation is required to assess scientific advancements and pave the way for models transitioning to real-time forecast operations. Model performance and skill should be compared to observations and to current operational forecasting baselines. Finally, resources are required to support the significant effort of transitioning mature models into forecast operations.

solar energetic particles↗
NASA NTRS2022

Review of Solar Energetic Particle Models

Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events are interesting from a scientific perspective as they are the product of a broad set of physical processes from the corona out through the extent of the heliosphere, and provide insight into processes of particle acceleration and transport that are widely applicable in astrophysics. From the operations perspective, SEP events pose a radiation hazard for aviation, electronics in space, and human space exploration, in particular for missions outside of the Earth’s protective magnetosphere including to the Moon and Mars. Thus, it is critical to improve the scientific understanding of SEP events and use this understanding to develop and improve SEP forecasting capabilities to support operations. Many SEP models exist or are in development using a wide variety of approaches and with differing goals. These include computationally intensive physics-based models, fast and light empirical models, machine learning-based models, and mixed-model approaches. The aim of this paper is to summarize all of the SEP models currently developed in the scientific community, including a description of model approach, inputs and outputs, free parameters, and any published validations or comparisons with data.

Kathryn Whitman↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

SPHINX: A Generalized Tool for Solar Energetic Particle Model Validation

The Integrated Solar Energetic Proton Alert/Warning (ISEP) project was established to aid in the transition of SEP models from the research realm to operational use. This project is a collaboration between the NASA Community Coordinated Model Center (CCMC), the NASA Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office (M2M) and the NASA Space Radiation Analysis Group (SRAG). Through ISEP, the SEP Scoreboards (Intensity, Probability, and All Clear) were developed to visualize real time forecasts from SEP models for use in SRAG operations. To accomplish this, SRAG, CCMC, and M2M work closely with modelers on model development, CCMC works on Scoreboard implementation, and M2M provides human-in-the-loop space weather analysis and ensures that models run in real time.

space weather↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

SPHINX: An SEP Model Validation Infrastructure developed through Community Challenges and the SEP Scoreboards

Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events are interesting from a scientific perspective as they are the product of a broad set of physical processes from the corona out through the extent of the heliosphere, and provide insight into processes of particle acceleration and transport that are widely applicable in astrophysics. From the operations perspective, SEP events pose a radiation hazard for aviation, electronics in space, and human space exploration, in particular for missions outside of the Earth’s protective magnetosphere including to the Moon and Mars (Whitman et al 2022). For these reasons, SEP modelers have developed a rich and diverse set of models with a wide variety of aims. Some models probe the basic physics at the heart of particle acceleration and transport. Others produce fast statistical forecasts or employ disruptive new techniques like Machine Learning with the goal to assist end users in making operational decisions. To enable a consistent and quantitative understanding of SEP model performance, a generalized, automated validation infrastructure, called SPHINX, is being developed at NASA SRAG in close collaboration with NASA CCMC, NASA M2M, NOAA SWPC, and BIRA-IASB. This infrastructure has been built up through a multi-year community challenge. Starting in 2018 at the SHINE workshop, an effort was launched through SHINE, ISWAT, and ESWW to encourage quantitative, comprehensive, and consistent validation of SEP models. This effort has defined a set of challenge SEP events with the aim of generating quantitative comparisons between forecasts and observations and a set of challenge “non-events” to assess false alarms. In 2023, these challenge lists have been extended to statistically significant numbers with a prescribed set of rules for producing forecasts and supported through the dedicated SEPVAL working meetings. The participation of the research community has allowed the infrastructure to validate all the types of outputs being produced by SEP models. In parallel, the SPHINX code is being applied to real time forecasts submitted to the SEP Scoreboards, ensuring that the validation infrastructure can interpret forecasts produced in an operational scenario and provide metrics meaningful for operations. Upon completion, SPHINX and its interactive user interface, SPHINX-Web, will be made available for public use.

space weather↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Multi-Year Effort to Forward the Validation of Solar Energetic Particle Prediction Models

To enable a consistent and quantitative understanding of solar energetic particle (SEP) model performance, a generalized, automated validation infrastructure, called SPHINX, is being developed by the NASA Space Radiation Analysis Group (SRAG) in close collaboration with the NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC), NASA Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office (M2M), NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), and the Royal Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy (BIRA-IASB). SPHINX is being developed to evaluate the SEP Scoreboards (https://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/scoreboards/sep/), which are being used by SRAG to support space radiation operations for Mission Control. SPHINX is also being developed through a series of community challenges, which have defined a list of challenge events and a prescribed set of rules of participation. The participation of the research community has enabled the generalization of the infrastructure to validate all the types of outputs being produced by SEP models and fully exercised the framework. The most recent challenge includes 30 SEP events and 33 non-event (quiet) periods and was supported by two dedicated SEPVAL working meetings, one in the US and one in Europe (https://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/community-workshops/ccmc-sepval-2023/). Here, we describe SPHINX and its interactive user interface, SPHINX-VIVID, which will eventually be made available for public use. We present selected results, outcomes, and lessons learned from the SEPVAL working meetings and validation results of the SEP Scoreboards from 2019 to present. These efforts aim to define a set of community standards for SEP model validation and describe the current state-of-the-art of SEP model performance.

Kathryn Whitman↗