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Reynolds, Robert J.

Publications and source records attributed to Reynolds, Robert J..

3 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2020

Using Bayesian Estimation to Quantify the Risks of Spaceflight

Complex PRA is the best method and current gold standard, as it allows us to reflect changes (improvements) in individual spacecraft system risks over time. Yet, Bayesian methods – using simple inputs – allowed us to get estimates that are in line with high-complexity PRA. Here Bayesian estimation acts as a “gut check” on PRA (supposing a “reasonable” prior is used). Frequentist calculations can overestimate P(failure), especially when total number of trials are few (e.g., after Challenger). In general, Bayesian probability estimation can be used in any risk assessment situation to integrate what we think we know ahead of time with what we observe over time.

Reynolds, Robert J.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Smoking and Mortality Among US Astronauts

Astronauts have lower age-specific mortality risk than the U.S. general population from all natural causes of death, particularly cardiovascular disease and cancer. Yet, understanding if they are as healthy as their backgrounds predict they should be, requires that epidemiologists understand (and measure) all potentially confounding exposures in this cohort. Tobacco smoking prevalence has been measured in the U.S. astronaut cohort, but its impact on mortality has not been previously assessed. If smoking history has a negative impact on mortality, this could confound attempts to measure the relative health of astronauts.

Reynolds, Robert J.↗