Engineering topics

Rai, Varun

Publications and source records attributed to Rai, Varun.

3 records

DOE OSTI2023

Knowledge acquisition and innovation quality: The moderating role of geographical characteristics of technology

Acquiring and absorbing knowledge at different geographic levels is an important step in the technological learning and innovation processes for firms. Geographically bounded knowledge searching and spillover have been shown in various network formats, industries, geographic scopes, and country contexts. This study finds evidence of localized learning in citation networks in the solar photovoltaic balance-of-systems (PV BOS) innovations, and that the levels of localized learning vary based on the degree to which technologies are relevant to local contexts. Thus, this study proposes that the value of local and non-local knowledge on patent quality is contingent on technological characteristics. Further, leveraging the different degrees of local dependence on four types of technologies in the PV BOS industry, we find that the impact of local knowledge on innovation quality is higher for technologies that are more rooted in local contexts and that the impact of non-local knowledge is higher for technologies that are less relevant to local contexts.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2022

The roles of learning mechanisms in services: Evidence from US residential solar installations

Non-hardware costs are majority of the cost of producing solar photovoltaic (PV) electricity. Here we use matched data on patents and over 125,000 residential PV installations to estimate the effects of three learning mechanisms in reducing PV costs: learning by doing, searching, and interacting. While previous work in this area has focused predominantly on learning by doing, we find that learning by searching and interacting are also significant mechanisms to facilitate non-hardware cost reductions. Including these two mechanisms reduces the effect of learning by doing in explaining non-hardware cost reductions by 43%. Our results suggest that prior work may overemphasize the role of learning by doing and the policies that help generate learning by doing. Analysis of the supplier-network between installers and their suppliers shows that concentrated supplier networks are associated with lower non-hardware costs, although there are key differences between installer-panel and installer-inverter manufacturer networks. An important implication is that policies for reducing non-hardware costs need to take a more complete view of how different learning mechanisms engender cost reductions. They should particularly consider the important role of learning in supplier networks in cost reductions—an effect that until now has largely been missing in analyses of solar non-hardware costs.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Forecasting distributed energy resources adoption for power systems

Failing to incorporate accurate distributed energy resource penetration forecasts into long-term resource and transmission planning can lead to cost inefficiencies at best and system failures at worst. We have developed an open-source tool that employs an advanced Bass specification to calibrate and forecast technology adoption. The advanced specification includes geographic clustering, exogenously estimated market size, and dynamic time steps. Training on historical adoption of rooftop photovoltaics at the U.S. county-level and using detailed techno-economic estimates, our model achieves a two-year average mean-absolute-percentage-error of 19% in predicting system counts at the county-level, weighted by population. Model error was negatively correlated with market maturity - the error was 12% for counties in states with at least 28 W-per-capita of installed capacity. The advanced specification significantly reduces unweighted forecasting percent error compared to a conventional Bass specification: from 196% to 25% for capacity and from 226% to 22% for system count.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗