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Raeder, J.

Publications and source records attributed to Raeder, J..

At least 19 records

Imaging Plasma Density Structures in the Soft X-Rays Generated by Solar Wind Charge Exchange with Neutrals

Both heliophysics and planetary physics seek to understand the complex nature of the solar wind's interaction with solar system obstacles like Earth's magnetosphere, the ionospheres of Venus and Mars, and comets. Studies with this objective are frequently conducted with the help of single or multipoint in situ electromagnetic field and particle observations, guided by the predictions of both local and global numerical simulations, and placed in context by observations from far and extreme ultraviolet (FUV, EUV), hard X-ray, and energetic neutral atom imagers (ENA). Each proposed interaction mechanism (e.g., steady or transient magnetic reconnection, local or global magnetic reconnection, ion pick-up, or the Kelvin- Helmholtz instability) generates diagnostic plasma density structures. The significance of each mechanism to the overall interaction (as measured in terms of atmospheric/ionospheric loss at comets, Venus, and Mars or global magnetospheric/ionospheric convection at Earth) remains to be determined but can be evaluated on the basis of how often the density signatures that it generates are observed as a function of solar wind conditions. This paper reviews efforts to image the diagnostic plasma density structures in the soft (low energy, 0.1-2.0 keV) X-rays produced when high charge state solar wind ions exchange electrons with the exospheric neutrals surrounding solar system obstacles.

Sibeck, David G.

Geomagnetically Induced Currents Caused by Interplanetary Shocks with Different Impact Angles and Speeds

The occurrence of geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) poses serious threats to modern technological infrastructure. Large GICs result from sharp variations of the geomagnetic field (dB∕dt) caused by changes of large-scale magnetospheric and ionospheric currents. Intense dB∕dt perturbations are known to occur often in high-latitude regions as a result of storm time substorms. Magnetospheric compressions usually caused by interplanetary shocks increase the magnetopause current leading to dB∕dt perturbations more evident in midlatitude to low-latitude regions, while they increase the equatorial electrojet current leading to dB∕dt perturbations in dayside equatorial regions. We investigate the effects of shock impact angles and speeds on the subsequent dB∕dt perturbations with a database of 547 shocks observed at the L1 point. By adopting the threshold of dB∕dt = 100 nT/min, identified as a risk factor to power systems, we find that dB∕dt generally surpasses this threshold when following impacts of high-speed and nearly frontal shocks in dayside high-latitude locations. The same trend occurs at lower latitudes and for all nightside events but with fewer high-risk events. Particularly, we found nine events in equatorial locations with dB∕dt > 100 nT/min. All events were caused by high-speed and nearly frontal shock impacts and were observed by stations located around noon local time. These high-risk perturbations were caused by sudden strong and symmetric magnetospheric compressions, more effectively intensifying the equatorial electrojet current, leading to sharp dB∕dt perturbations. We suggest that these results may provide insights for GIC forecasting aiming at preventing degradation of power systems due to GICs.

Oliveira, D. M.

The Substorm Cycle as Reproduced by Global MHD Models

Recently, Gordeev et al. (2015) suggested a method to test global MHD models against statistical empirical data. They showed that four community-available global MHD models supported by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) produce a reasonable agreement with reality for those key parameters (the magnetospheric size, magnetic field, and pressure) that are directly related to the large-scale equilibria in the outer magnetosphere. Based on the same set of simulation runs, here we investigate how the models reproduce the global loading-unloading cycle. We found that in terms of global magnetic flux transport, three examined CCMC models display systematically different response to idealized2 h north then 2 h south interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz variation. The LFM model shows a depressed return convection and high loading rate during the growth phase as well as enhanced return convection and high unloading rate during the expansion phase, with the amount of loaded unloaded magnetotail flux and the growth phase duration being the closest to their observed empirical values during isolated substorms. Two other models exhibit drastically different behavior. In the BATS-R-US model the plasma sheet convection shows a smooth transition to the steady convection regime after the IMF southward turning. In the Open GGCM a weak plasma sheet convection has comparable intensities during both the growth phase and the following slow unloading phase. We also demonstrate potential technical problem in the publicly available simulations which is related to post processing interpolation and could affect the accuracy of magnetic field tracing and of other related procedures.

Gordeev, E.

Do We Know the Actual Magnetopause Position for Typical Solar Wind Conditions?

We compare predicted magnetopause positions at the subsolar point and four reference points in the terminator plane obtained from several empirical and numerical MHD (magnetohydrodynamics) models. Empirical models using various sets of magnetopause crossings and making different assumptions about the magnetopause shape predict significantly different magnetopause positions (with a scatter greater than 1 Earth radius (R (sub E)) even at the subsolar point. Axisymmetric magnetopause models cannot reproduce the cusp indentations or the changes related to the dipole tilt effect, and most of them predict the magnetopause closer to the Earth than non axisymmetric models for typical solar wind conditions and zero tilt angle. Predictions of two global non axisymmetric models do not match each other, and the models need additional verification. MHD models often predict the magnetopause closer to the Earth than the non axisymmetric empirical models, but the predictions of MHD simulations may need corrections for the ring current effect and decreases of the solar wind pressure that occur in the foreshock. Comparing MHD models in which the ring current magnetic field is taken into account with the empirical Lin et al. model, we find that the differences in the reference point positions predicted by these models are relatively small for B (sub z) equals 0 (note: B (sub z) is when the Earth's magnetic field points north versus Sun's magnetic field pointing south). Therefore, we assume that these predictions indicate the actual magnetopause position, but future investigations are still needed.

Samsonov, A. A.

Community-Wide Validation of Geospace Model Local K-Index Predictions to Support Model Transition to Operations

We present the latest result of a community-wide space weather model validation effort coordinated among the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC), NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), model developers, and the broader science community. Validation of geospace models is a critical activity for both building confidence in the science results produced by the models and in assessing the suitability of the models for transition to operations. Indeed, a primary motivation of this work is supporting NOAA/SWPCs effort to select a model or models to be transitioned into operations. Our validation efforts focus on the ability of the models to reproduce a regional index of geomagnetic disturbance, the local K-index. Our analysis includes six events representing a range of geomagnetic activity conditions and six geomagnetic observatories representing midlatitude and high-latitude locations. Contingency tables, skill scores, and distribution metrics are used for the quantitative analysis of model performance. We consider model performance on an event-by-event basis, aggregated over events, at specific station locations, and separated into high-latitude and midlatitude domains. A summary of results is presented in this report, and an online tool for detailed analysis is available at the CCMC.

Glocer, A.

Community-wide Validation of Geospace Model Ground Magnetic Field Perturbation Predictions to Support Model Transition to Operations

In this paper we continue the community-wide rigorous modern space weather model validation efforts carried out within GEM, CEDAR and SHINE programs. In this particular effort, in coordination among the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC), NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), modelers, and science community, we focus on studying the models' capability to reproduce observed ground magnetic field fluctuations, which are closely related to geomagnetically induced current phenomenon. One of the primary motivations of the work is to support NOAA SWPC in their selection of the next numerical model that will be transitioned into operations. Six geomagnetic events and 12 geomagnetic observatories were selected for validation.While modeled and observed magnetic field time series are available for all 12 stations, the primary metrics analysis is based on six stations that were selected to represent the high-latitude and mid-latitude locations. Events-based analysis and the corresponding contingency tables were built for each event and each station. The elements in the contingency table were then used to calculate Probability of Detection (POD), Probability of False Detection (POFD) and Heidke Skill Score (HSS) for rigorous quantification of the models' performance. In this paper the summary results of the metrics analyses are reported in terms of POD, POFD and HSS. More detailed analyses can be carried out using the event by event contingency tables provided as an online appendix. An online interface built at CCMC and described in the supporting information is also available for more detailed time series analyses.

MAGNETIC

On the Performance of Global Magnetohydrodynamic Models in the Earth's Magnetosphere

We study the performance of four magnetohydrodynamic models (BATS-R-US, GUMICS, LFM, Open GGCM) in the Earths magnetosphere. Using the Community Coordinated Modeling Centers Run-on-Request system, we compare model predictions with magnetic field measurements of the Cluster, Geotail and Wind spacecraft during a multiple substorm event. We also compare model cross polar cap potential results to those obtained from the Super Dual Auroral Radar Network(SuperDARN) and the model magnetopause standoff distances to an empirical magnetopause model. The correlation coefficient (CC) and prediction efficiency (PE) metrics are used to objectively evaluate model performance quantitatively. For all four models, the best performance outside geosynchronous orbit is found on the dayside. Generally, the performance of models decreases steadily down stream from the Earth. On the dayside most CCs are above 0.5 with CCs for Bx and Bz close to 0.9 for three out of four models. In the magnetotail at a distance of about -130 Earth radii from Earth, the prediction efficiency of all models is below that of using an average value for the prediction with the exception of Bz. Bx is most often best predicted and correlated both on the dayside and the nightside close to the Earth whereas in the far tail the CC and PE for Bz are substantially higher than other components in all models. We also find that increasing the resolution or coupling an additional physics module does notautomatically increase the model performance in the magnetosphere.

geomagnetic tail

Global Simulation of Proton Precipitation Due to Field Line Curvature During Substorms

The low latitude boundary of the proton aurora (known as the Isotropy Boundary or IB) marks an important boundary between empty and full downgoing loss cones. There is significant evidence that the IB maps to a region in the magnetosphere where the ion gyroradius becomes comparable to the local field line curvature. However, the location of the IB in the magnetosphere remains in question. In this paper, we show simulated proton precipitation derived from the Field Line Curvature (FLC) model of proton scattering and a global magnetohydrodynamic simulation during two substorms. The simulated proton precipitation drifts equatorward during the growth phase, intensifies at onset and reproduces the azimuthal splitting published in previous studies. In the simulation, the pre-onset IB maps to 7-8 RE for the substorms presented and the azimuthal splitting is caused by the development of the substorm current wedge. The simulation also demonstrates that the central plasma sheet temperature can significantly influence when and where the azimuthal splitting takes place.

Field Line Curvature

Global Simulation of Proton Precipitation Due to Field Line Curvature During Substorms

The low latitude boundary of the proton aurora (known as the Isotropy Boundary or IB) marks an important boundary between empty and full downgoing loss cones. There is significant evidence that the IB maps to a region in the magnetosphere where the ion gyroradius becomes comparable to the local field line curvature. However, the location of the IB in the magnetosphere remains in question. In this paper, we show simulated proton precipitation derived from the Field Line Curvature (FLC) model of proton scattering and a global magnetohydrodynamic simulation during two substorms. The simulated proton precipitation drifts equatorward during the growth phase, intensifies at onset and reproduces the azimuthal splitting published in previous studies. In the simulation, the pre-onset IB maps to 7-8 RE for the substorms presented and the azimuthal splitting is caused by the development of the substorm current wedge. The simulation also demonstrates that the central plasma sheet temperature can significantly influence when and where the azimuthal splitting takes place.

Gilson, M. L.

2008 GEM Modeling Challenge: Metrics Study of the Dst Index in Physics-Based Magnetosphere and Ring Current Models and in Statistical and Analytic Specifications

In this paper the metrics-based results of the Dst part of the 2008-2009 GEM Metrics Challenge are reported. The Metrics Challenge asked modelers to submit results for 4 geomagnetic storm events and 5 different types of observations that can be modeled by statistical or climatological or physics-based (e.g. MHD) models of the magnetosphere-ionosphere system. We present the results of over 25 model settings that were run at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) and at the institutions of various modelers for these events. To measure the performance of each of the models against the observations we use comparisons of one-hour averaged model data with the Dst index issued by the World Data Center for Geomagnetism, Kyoto, Japan, and direct comparison of one-minute model data with the one-minute Dst index calculated by the United States Geologic Survey (USGS).

Rastaetter, L.

ARTEMIS Science Objectives

NASA's two spacecraft ARTEMIS mission will address both heliospheric and planetary research questions, first while in orbit about the Earth with the Moon and subsequently while in orbit about the Moon. Heliospheric topics include the structure of the Earth's magnetotail; reconnection, particle acceleration, and turbulence in the Earth's magnetosphere, at the bow shock, and in the solar wind; and the formation and structure of the lunar wake. Planetary topics include the lunar exosphere and its relationship to the composition of the lunar surface, the effects of electric fields on dust in the exosphere, internal structure of the Moon, and the lunar crustal magnetic field. This paper describes the expected contributions of ARTEMIS to these baseline scientific objectives.

Sibeck, D. G.

Geospace Environment Modeling 2008-2009 Challenge: Ground Magnetic Field Perturbations

Acquiring quantitative metrics!based knowledge about the performance of various space physics modeling approaches is central for the space weather community. Quantification of the performance helps the users of the modeling products to better understand the capabilities of the models and to choose the approach that best suits their specific needs. Further, metrics!based analyses are important for addressing the differences between various modeling approaches and for measuring and guiding the progress in the field. In this paper, the metrics!based results of the ground magnetic field perturbation part of the Geospace Environment Modeling 2008 2009 Challenge are reported. Predictions made by 14 different models, including an ensemble model, are compared to geomagnetic observatory recordings from 12 different northern hemispheric locations. Five different metrics are used to quantify the model performances for four storm events. It is shown that the ranking of the models is strongly dependent on the type of metric used to evaluate the model performance. None of the models rank near or at the top systematically for all used metrics. Consequently, one cannot pick the absolute winner : the choice for the best model depends on the characteristics of the signal one is interested in. Model performances vary also from event to event. This is particularly clear for root!mean!square difference and utility metric!based analyses. Further, analyses indicate that for some of the models, increasing the global magnetohydrodynamic model spatial resolution and the inclusion of the ring current dynamics improve the models capability to generate more realistic ground magnetic field fluctuations.

Pulkkinen, A.

The Distant Magnetotail Under Long Duration, Very Northward IMF Conditions: October 22-24, 2003

A unique 32 hour interval of very northward Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) on October 22-24, 2003 created a exceptionally thick cold dense magnetotail plasma sheet, a small polar cap and accompanying small tail lobe. These features were detected by the Cluster DMSP and FAST spacecraft and modeled by a global simulation as described in papers by Oieroset et al. (2005) and Li et al. (2005). During the same interval the Wind spacecraft was passing through the center of the magnetotail about 130 Re downstream of Earth. Wind results will be described that reveal a very unusual magnetotail characterized by (1) continual tailward flow of 200-400 km/s with densities in the range 0.2-3/cc, both of whch are clearly less than those expected in the magnetosheath, (2) a mostly northward Bz but with a predominant Bx field component with sign reversals indicating crossings between the two hemispheres of the tail, and (3) velocity waves superposed on the downstream flow with peak-to-peak amplitudes of 100 to 200 km/s, periods of 10 to 20 minutes and clockwise polarization. Low altitude DMSP and Fast measurements reveal an auroral oval with enhanced latitudinal thickness and a small polar cap filled with structured precipitzting electrons and few ions. A new global MHD simulation of the event exhibits a highly elliptical tail of diminished cross-section at 130 Re with major axis aligned with the northward IMF. The tail current sheet also tends to be aligned in a north-south direction with the two tail hemispheres to the east and west with their polarities depending on prior history of the IMF. The simulation appears to be consistent with many, but not all, of the observations. High latitude cusp reconnection and subsequent downtail flow of closed field lines may explain the tail structure, but the waves are more likely due to the Kelvin-Helmholtz instability often thought to occur during northward IMF conditions.

Fairfield, Donald H.

Solar Effects on Global Climate Due to Cosmic Rays and Solar Energetic Particles

Although the work reported here does not directly connect solar variability with global climate change, this research establishes a plausible quantitative causative link between observed solar activity and apparently correlated variations in terrestrial climate parameters. Specifically, we have demonstrated that ion-mediated nucleation of atmospheric particles is a likely, and likely widespread, phenomenon that relates solar variability to changes in the microphysical properties of clouds. To investigate this relationship, we have constructed and applied a new model describing the formation and evolution of ionic clusters under a range of atmospheric conditions throughout the lower atmosphere. The activation of large ionic clusters into cloud nuclei is predicted to be favorable in the upper troposphere and mesosphere, and possibly in the lower stratosphere. The model developed under this grant needs to be extended to include additional cluster families, and should be incorporated into microphysical models to further test the cause-and-effect linkages that may ultimately explain key aspects of the connections between solar variability and climate.

Turco, R. P.

The Origin of the Near-Earth Plasma Population During a Substorm on November 24, 1996

We investigate the origins and the transport of ions observed in the near-Earth plasma sheet during the growth and expansion phases of a magnetospheric substorm that occurred on November 24, 1996. Ions observed at Geotail were traced backward in time in time-dependent magnetic and electric fields to determine their origins and the acceleration mechanisms responsible for their energization. Results from this investigation indicate that, during the growth phase of the substorm, most of the ions reaching Geotail had origins in the low latitude boundary layer (LLBL) and had already entered the magnetosphere when the growth phase began. Late in the growth phase and in the expansion phase a higher proportion of the ions reaching Geotail had their origin in the plasma mantle. Indeed, during the expansion phase more than 90% of the ions seen by Geotail were from the mantle. The ions were accelerated enroute to the spacecraft; however, most of the ions' energy gain was achieved by non-adiabatic acceleration while crossing the equatorial current sheet just prior to their detection by Geotail. In general, the plasma mantle from both southern and northern hemispheres supplied non-adiabatic ions to Geotail, whereas the LLBL supplied mostly adiabatic ions to the distributions measured by the spacecraft. Distribution functions computed at the ion sources indicate that ionospheric ions reaching Geotail during the expansion phase were significantly heated. Plasma mantle source distributions indicated the presence of a high-latitude reconnection region that allowed ion entry into the magnetosphere when the IMF was northward. These ions reached Geotail during the expansion phase. Ions from the traditional plasma mantle had access to the spacecraft throughout the substorm.

Ashour-Abdalla, M.

Source Distributions of Substorm Ions Observed in the Near-Earth Magnetotail

This study employs Geotail plasma observations and numerical modeling to determine sources of the ions observed in the near-Earth magnetotail near midnight during a substorm. The growth phase has the low-latitude boundary layer as its most important source of ions at Geotail, but during the expansion phase the plasma mantle is dominant. The mantle distribution shows evidence of two distinct entry mechanisms: entry through a high latitude reconnection region resulting in an accelerated component, and entry through open field lines traditionally identified with the mantle source. The two entry mechanisms are separated in time, with the high-latitude reconnection region disappearing prior to substorm onset.

Ashour-Abdalla, M.

The Distant Tail at 200 R(sub E): Comparison Between Geotail Observations and the Results from a Global Magnetohydrodynamic Simulation

This paper reports a comparison between Geotail observations of plasmas and magnetic fields at 200 R(sub E) in the Earth's magnetotail with results from a time-dependent, global magnetohydrodynamic simulation of the interaction of the solar wind with the magnetosphere. The study focuses on observations from July 7, 1993, during which the Geotail spacecraft crossed the distant tail magnetospheric boundary several times while the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) was predominantly northward and was marked by slow rotations of its clock angle. Simultaneous IMP 8 observations of solar wind ions and the IMF were used as driving input for the MHD simulation, and the resulting time series were compared directly with those from the Geotail spacecraft. The very good agreement found provided the basis for an investigation of the response of the distant tail associated with the clock angle of the IMF. Results from the simulation show that the stresses imposed by the draping of magnetosheath field lines and the asymmetric removal of magnetic flux tailward of the cusps altered considerably the shape of the distant tail as the solar wind discontinuities convected downstream of Earth. As a result, the cross section of the distant tail was considerably flattened along the direction perpendicular to the IMF clock angle, the direction of the neutral sheet following that of the IMF. The simulation also revealed that the combined action of magnetic reconnection and the slow rotation of the IMF clock angle led to a braiding of the distant tail's magnetic field lines along the axis of the tail, with the plane of the braid lying in the direction of the IMF.

Berchem, J.

Global MHD Simulations of the Substorm Current Wedge and Dipolarization

This paper presents results from global MHD simulations showing the evolution of the plasma and field in the near-Earth tail during the substorm phases. The late growth phase is characterized by pronounced thinning of the plasma sheet and stretching of the field in the region between approximately -6 R(sub E) to -30 R(sub E). A pre-existing X-line moves tailward to beyond -50 R(sub E). Close to onset, a new X-line forms near -18 R(sub E) in the midnight sector. Earthward flows emanating from this X-line dipolarize the near-Earth field, leading to a reduction of the cross-tail current in the midnight sector, but not elsewhere. The magnetic shear between the dipolarized field near midnight and the stretched field elsewhere is equivalent to currents flowing through the ionosphere in a region I sense, and so forming the current wedge. Later in the expansion phase, the dipolarization spreads in local time at a rate of about 0.3 hours MLT per minute. A strong electric field and a rapid increase of the plasma pressure is associated with the dipolarization. Near midnight the dipolarization appears to occur at all distances between 6.6 and 13 R(sub E) at the same time within the resolution (+/- 2 min) of our model. However, the model results indicate that dipolarization starts before ground onset in the pre-midnight sector and propagates both earthward and eastward.THus, dipolarization may be much more complex than simple earthward/tailward and/or azimuthal expansion.

Raeder, J.