Engineering topics

Prinn, Ronald

Publications and source records attributed to Prinn, Ronald.

5 records

NASA NTRS2017

Variability and Quasi-Decadal Changes in the Methane Budget over the Period 2000-2012

Following the recent Global Carbon Project (GCP) synthesis of the decadal methane (CH4) budget over 2000- 2012, we analyse here the same dataset with a focus on quasi-decadal and inter-annual variability in CH4 emissions. The GCP dataset integrates results from top-down studies (exploiting atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modelling framework) and bottom-up models (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry), inventories of anthropogenic emissions, and data-driven approaches. The annual global methane emissions from top-down studies, which by construction match the observed methane growth rate within their uncertainties, all show an increase in total methane emissions over the period 2000-2012, but this increase is not linear over the 13 years. Despite differences between individual studies, the mean emission anomaly of the top-down ensemble shows no significant trend in total methane emissions over the period 2000-2006, during the plateau of atmospheric methane mole fractions, and also over the period 2008-2012, during the renewed atmospheric methane increase. However, the top-down ensemble mean produces an emission shift between 2006 and 2008, leading to 22 [16-32] Tg CH4 yr(exp -1) higher methane emissions over the period 2008-2012 compared to 2002-2006. This emission increase mostly originated from the tropics, with a smaller contribution from mid-latitudes and no significant change from boreal regions. The regional contributions remain uncertain in top-down studies. Tropical South America and South and East Asia seem to contribute the most to the emission increase in the tropics. However, these two regions have only limited atmospheric measurements and remain therefore poorly constrained. The sectorial partitioning of this emission increase between the periods 2002-2006 and 2008-2012 differs from one atmospheric inversion study to another. However, all top-down studies suggest smaller changes in fossil fuel emissions (from oil, gas, and coal industries) compared to the mean of the bottom-up inventories included in this study. This difference is partly driven by a smaller emission change in China from the top-down studies compared to the estimate in the Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGARv4.2) inventory, which should be revised to smaller values in a near future. We apply isotopic signatures to the emission changes estimated for individual studies based on five emission sectors and find that for six individual top-down studies (out of eight) the average isotopic signature of the emission changes is not consistent with the observed change in atmospheric 13CH4. However, the partitioning in emission change derived from the ensemble mean is consistent with this isotopic constraint. At the global scale, the top-down ensemble mean suggests that the dominant contribution to the resumed atmospheric CH4 growth after 2006 comes from microbial sources (more from agriculture and waste sectors than from natural wetlands), with an uncertain but smaller contribution from fossil CH4 emissions. In addition, a decrease in biomass burning emissions (in agreement with the biomass burning emission databases) makes the balance of sources consistent with atmospheric 13CH4 observations. In most of the top-down studies included here, OH concentrations are considered constant over the years (seasonal variations but without any inter-annual variability). As a result, the methane loss (in particular through OH oxidation) varies mainly through the change in methane concentrations and not its oxidants. For these reasons, changes in the methane loss could not be properly investigated in this study, although it may play a significant role in the recent atmospheric methane changes as briefly discussed at the end of the paper.

Saunois, Marielle↗

NASA NTRS2016

The Global Methane Budget 2000-2012

The global methane (CH4) budget is becoming an increasingly important component for managing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. This relevance, due to a shorter atmospheric lifetime and a stronger warming potential than carbon dioxide, is challenged by the still unexplained changes of atmospheric CH4 over the past decade. Emissions and concentrations of CH4 are continuing to increase, making CH4 the second most important human-induced greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide. Two major difficulties in reducing uncertainties come from the large variety of diffusive CH4 sources that overlap geographically, and from the destruction of CH4 by the very short-lived hydroxyl radical (OH). To address these difficulties, we have established a consortium of multi-disciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to synthesize and stimulate research on the methane cycle, and producing regular (approximately biennial) updates of the global methane budget. This consortium includes atmospheric physicists and chemists, biogeochemists of surface and marine emissions, and socio-economists who study anthropogenic emissions. Following Kirschke et al. (2013), we propose here the first version of a living review paper that integrates results of top-down studies (exploiting atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modeling framework) and bottom-up models, inventories and data-driven approaches (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry, and inventories for anthropogenic emissions, data-driven extrapolations).For the 2003-2012 decade, global methane emissions are estimated by top-down inversions at 558 TgCH4 yr(exp -1), range 540-568. About 60 of global emissions are anthropogenic (range 50-65%). Since 2010, the bottom-up global emission inventories have been closer to methane emissions in the most carbon-intensive Representative Concentrations Pathway (RCP8.5) and higher than all other RCP scenarios. Bottom-up approaches suggest larger global emissions (736 TgCH4 yr(exp -1), range 596-884) mostly because of larger natural emissions from individual sources such as inland waters, natural wetlands and geological sources. Considering the atmospheric constraints on the top-down budget, it is likely that some of the individual emissions reported by the bottom-up approaches are overestimated, leading to too large global emissions. Latitudinal data from top-down emissions indicate a predominance of tropical emissions (approximately 64% of the global budget, less than 30deg N) as compared to mid (approximately 32%, 30-60deg N) and high northern latitudes (approximately 4%, 60-90deg N). Top-down inversions consistently infer lower emissions in China (approximately 58 TgCH4 yr(exp -1), range 51-72, minus14% ) and higher emissions in Africa (86 TgCH4 yr(exp -1), range 73-108, plus 19% ) than bottom-up values used as prior estimates. Overall, uncertainties for anthropogenic emissions appear smaller than those from natural sources, and the uncertainties on source categories appear larger for top-down inversions than for bottom-up inventories and models. The most important source of uncertainty on the methane budget is attributable to emissions from wetland and other inland waters. We show that the wetland extent could contribute 30-40% on the estimated range for wetland emissions. Other priorities for improving the methane budget include the following: (i) the development of process-based models for inland-water emissions, (ii) the intensification of methane observations at local scale (flux measurements) to constrain bottom-up land surface models, and at regional scale (surface networks and satellites) to constrain top-down inversions, (iii) improvements in the estimation of atmospheric loss by OH, and (iv) improvements of the transport models integrated in top-down inversions. The data presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (http://doi.org/10.3334/CDIAC/GLOBAL_ METHANE_BUDGET_2016_V1.1) and the Global Carbon Project.

Saunois, Marielle↗

NASA NTRS1993

Feasibility of determining surface emissions of trace gases using an inverse method in a three-dimensional chemical transport model

The paper investigates the feasibility of using an inverse method based on a linear Kalman filter in a three-dimensional atmospheric transport model, for the determination of regional surface fluxes with rapid convergence, using data from a finite number of observation sites. It was found that the inverse method used was capable to accurately determine regional surface fluxes using the present ALE/GALE sites, and to converge to the correct solution within a year or two, using initial conditions very different from the final solution.

Hartley, Dana↗

NASA NTRS1988

Chemical interactions between the present-day Martian atmosphere and surface minerals: Implications for sample return

Thermochemical and photochemical reactions between surface minerals and present-day atmospheric constituents are predicted to produce microscopic effects on the surface of mineral grains. Relevant reactions hypothesized in the literature include conversions of silicates and volcanic glasses to clay minerals, conversion of ferrous to ferric compounds, and formation of carbonates, nitrates, and sulfates. These types of surface-atmosphere weathering of minerals, biological potential of the surface environment, and atmospheric stability in both present and past Martian epochs. It is emphasized that the product of these reactions will be observable and interpretable on the microscopic surface layers of Martian surface rocks using modern techniques with obvious implications for sample return from Mars. Macroscopic products of chemical weathering reactions in past Martian epochs are also expected in Martian surface materials. These products are expected not only as a result of reactions similar to those proceeding today but also due to aqueous reactions in past epochs in which liquid water was putatively present. It may prove very difficult or impossible, however, to determine definitively from the relic macroscopic product alone either the exact weathering process which led to its formation of the identity of its weathering parent mineral. The enormous advantages of studying the Martian chemical weathering by investigating the microscopic products of present-day chemical reactions on sample surfaces are very apparent.

Prinn, Ronald↗

NASA NTRS1987

Chemical interactions between the present-day Martian atmosphere and surface minerals

Thermochemical and photochemical reactions between surface minerals and present-day atmospheric constituents are predicted to produce microscopic effects on the surfaces of mineral grains. Relevant reactions hypothesized in the literature include conversions of silicates and volcanic glasses to clay minerals, conversion of ferrous to ferric compounds, and formation of carbonates, nitrates, and sulfates. These types of surface-atmosphere interactions are important for addressing issues such as chemical weathering of minerals, biological potential of the surface environment, and atmospheric stability in both present and past Martian epochs. It is emphasized that the product of these reactions will be observable and interpretable on the microscopic surface layers of Martian surface rocks using modern techniques with obvious implications for sample return from Mars. Macroscopic products of chemical weathering reactions in past Martian epochs are also expected in Martian surface material. These products are expected not only as a result of reactions similar to those proceeding today but also due to aqueous reactions in past epochs in which liquid water was putatively present. It may prove very difficult or impossible however to determine definitively from the relic macroscopic product alone either the exact weathering process which led to its formation or the identity of its weathered parent mineral. The enormous advantages of studying Martian chemical weathering by investigating the microscopic products of present-day chemical reactions on sample surfaces are very apparent.

Prinn, Ronald↗