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Price, Stephen

Publications and source records attributed to Price, Stephen.

18 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Use of Shallow Ice Core Measurements to Evaluate and Constrain 1980–1990 Global Reanalyses of Ice Sheet Precipitation Rates

Abstract Sea‐level rise (SLR) projections by Earth System Models (ESMs) depend on ice sheet surface mass balances. Accurate, global atmosphere reanalyses would be ideal for providing equilibrated ice sheet model initial conditions in fully coupled ESM simulations. Here we present the first evaluation of 1980–1990 global reanalysis precipitation over Greenland and Antarctica that uses independent observations of net accumulation rates derived from shallow ice cores. Precipitation distributions from both the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecast's Reanalysis (ERA5) and the Modern‐Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA‐2) are highly correlated with contemporaneous co‐located net accumulation rates from Greenland ( r 2 > 0.95) and West Antarctica ( r 2 > 0.7). Three other commonly used reanalyses (WFDE5, CRUNCEP, and GSWP3) exhibit significantly weaker correlations on one or both ice sheets. Our findings imply that ESMs should use ERA5 or MERRA‐2 in data‐forced simulations to validate ice sheet model dynamics and precondition firn for SLR projections.

Schneider, Adam↗
DOE OSTI2021

Early detection and uncertainty quantification of rapid sea-level rise from Antarctica

Focal Areas: (i) classification and/or anomaly detection methods applied towards identifying critical climate system thresholds; improved emulator design for (ii) reducing computational costs relative to full-physics models and (iii) improved uncertainty quantification workflows. Rationale: The evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet in response to climate change remains the single largest uncertainty in projecting future sea-level rise (SLR), with risk-averse projections for 2100 spanning between zero and a half meter. During the past decade, DOE has made substantial investments in new ice sheet and Earth system models needed to improve both understanding and predictive capability in this area. Yet major challenges remain, including better understanding when and under what circumstances significant increases in SLR from Antarctica may be initiated and better quantifying uncertainties in model-based SLR projections. Here, we discuss the potential for transformative advances in these areas through the application of machine learning and artificial intelligence (ML and AI, respectively).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Hybrid (PDE+ML) models in the context of land ice modeling

Focal Area(s): Primary focal areas are: predictive modeling through the use of AI-derived model components; advanced methods including network design/optimization/deep learning. Science Challenge: The atmospheric, ocean and ice dynamics components of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) are governed by Partial Differential Equations (PDEs) and significant efforts have been made during the last decades to develop such computational models. Here we propose to fundamentally improve these PDE-based codes by enhancing them with Machine Learning (ML) sub-models for complex, poorly understood physical processes in the context of ice sheet modeling. We propose to train these models with a novel approach that allows the assimilation of the different sources of data available (direct/indirect observations and possibly simulation data), improving on existing simplified models. We also highlight computational challenges originating from the coexistence of PDE-based and ML-based models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

LIVVkit 2.1: automated and extensible ice sheet model validation

A collection of scientific analyses, metrics, and visualizations for robustvalidation of ice sheet models is presented using the Land Ice Verificationand Validation toolkit (LIVVkit), version 2.1, and the LIVVkit Extensionsrepository (LEX), version 0.1. This software collection targets stand-aloneice sheet or coupled Earth system models, and handles datasets and analysesthat require high-performance computing and storage. LIVVkit aims to enableefficient and fully reproducible workflows for postprocessing, analysis, andvisualization of observational and model-derived datasets in a shareableformat, whereby all data, methodologies, and output are distributed to usersfor evaluation. Extending from the initial LIVVkit software framework, wedemonstrate Greenland ice sheet simulation validation metrics using thecoupled Community Earth System Model (CESM) as well as an idealizedstand-alone high-resolution Community Ice Sheet Model, version 2 (CISM2),coupled to the Albany/FELIX velocity solver (CISM-Albany or CISM-A). As oneexample of the capability, LIVVkit analyzes the degree to which modelscapture the surface mass balance (SMB) and identifies potential sources ofbias, using recently available in situ and remotely sensed data ascomparison. Related fields within atmosphere and land surface models, e.g.,surface temperature, radiation, and cloud cover, are also diagnosed. Appliedto the CESM1.0, LIVVkit identifies a positive SMB bias that is focusedlargely around Greenland's southwest region that is due to insufficientablation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

An Overview of Interactions and Feedbacks Between Ice Sheets and the Earth System

Abstract Ice sheet response to forced changes—such as that from anthropogenic climate forcing—is closely regulated by two‐way interactions with other components of the Earth system. These interactions encompass the ice sheet response to Earth system forcing, the Earth system response to ice sheet change, and feedbacks resulting from coupled ice sheet/Earth system evolution. Motivated by the impact of Antarctic and Greenland ice sheet change on future sea level rise, here we review the state of knowledge of ice sheet/Earth system interactions and feedbacks. We also describe emerging observation and model‐based methods that can improve understanding of ice sheet/Earth system interactions and feedbacks. We particularly focus on the development of Earth system models that incorporate current understanding of Earth system processes, ice dynamics, and ice sheet/Earth system couplings. Such models will be critical tools for projecting future sea level rise from anthropogenically forced ice sheet mass loss.

Fyke, Jeremy↗