Engineering topics

Prasanna, Viktor K.

Publications and source records attributed to Prasanna, Viktor K..

At least 19 records

DOE OSTI2019

Generative Adversarial Network for Synthetic Time Series Data Generation in Smart Grids

The availability of fine grained time series data is a pre-requisite for research in smart-grids. While data for transmission systems is relatively easily obtainable, issues related to data collection, security and privacy hinder the widespread public availability/accessibility of such datasets at the distribution system level. This has prevented the larger research community from effectively applying sophisticated machine learning algorithms to significantly improve the distribution-level accuracy of predictions and increase the efficiency of grid operations. Synthetic dataset generation has proven to be a promising solution for addressing data availability issues in various domains such as computer vision, natural language processing and medicine. However, its exploration in the smart grid context remains unsatisfactory. Previous works have tried to generate synthetic datasets by modeling the underlying system dynamics: an approach which is difficult, time consuming, error prone and often times infeasible in many problems. In this work, we propose a novel data-driven approach to synthetic dataset generation by utilizing deep generative adversarial networks (GAN) to learn the conditional probability distribution of essential features in the real dataset and generate samples based on the learned distribution. To evaluate our synthetically generated dataset, we measure the maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) between real and synthetic datasets as probability distributions, and show that their sampling distance converges. To further validate our synthetic dataset, we perform common smart grid tasks such as k-means clustering and short-term prediction on both datasets. Experimental results show the efficacy of our synthetic dataset approach: the real and synthetic datasets are indistinguishable by solely examining the output of these tasks.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2019

Approximate Scheduling of DERs with Discrete Complex Injections

Rapid penetration of renewable energy based Distributed Energy Resources (DER) has the potential to exacerbate the challenges inherent in grid frequency and voltage regulation. However, their real time controllability can be leveraged to not only mitigate such challenges, but improve the economics and quality of grid operations. A plethora of DER scheduling algorithms have been developed for fast and efficient scheduling of these resources. These algorithms schedule the complex - real and reactive power injected into (or drawn from) the grid by the DERs under various cost objective functions and grid constraints. However, a vast majority of such algorithms assume the feasible range of power injections to be continuous. In reality, the control options available for several DERs form a discrete space. This implies that the feasible range of power injections also forms a discrete space. This makes DER scheduling an NP-hard problem. Integer/Mixed Integer program based algorithms, which guarantee optimality in the objective value, have been developed. But these are prohibitively expensive in terms of computational time requirements. On the other hand, fast heuristic based solutions have also been developed. But as they do not provide any guarantee on the optimality of the objective, or on satisfying the constraints, they are unreliable for grid operations. Recent works have developed approximation algorithms which offer the best of both the approaches above: (near) optimality and low computational complexity, both of which are governed by a user defined accuracy parameter ϵ. In this work, we significantly improve upon such existing works by developing an approximation algorithm which schedules DERs with complex injections (as opposed to only real injection) and whose runtime is polynomial (as opposed to exponential) in 1/ϵ. We provide theoretical analysis and support them with experimental results to validate the guarantees provided by our approximation algorithm.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2019

Towards Improved Real-Time Observability of Behind-Meter PhotoVoltaic Systems: A Data-Driven Approach

The stochasticity in energy supply introduced by increased PV penetration in grid distribution systems can lead to frequent and sudden supply-demand imbalances, thereby causing voltage and frequency fluctuations. Enhanced observability, in real-time, of grid attributes such as real and reactive power flows, power injections/consumption and voltages is becoming increasingly essential to ensure smooth grid operation under these new large-scale PV integration scenarios. Two significant challenges prevent grid operators from achieving this objective: 1) Computational complexity of quasi-static timeseries simulations, and 2) Partial observability of behind-meter grid assets. In this work, we take a step towards this objective by enhancing the observability of smart inverter equipped PV systems located behind AMI meters. Smart inverters convert the DC output of PV systems into real and reactive power, the ratio of which is governed by a power factor setting. This in turn is governed by the real-time voltage at its terminal, as per a pre-set volt/var curve. While it is possible to infer the power factor setting - thereby, real and reactive power injection of the PV system - at each time interval by quasi-static time series simulations, such methods are not scalable to large grid sizes. We propose to reduce the reliance on simulations by developing a deep neural network based data-driven model which predicts the time dependent power factors of the PV systems in the grid. The model uses a small amount of simulated data to learn the dependence of power factor on 1) load and apparent PV power injection (root mean square of real and reactive power) data, and 2) AMI net-load data (for BTM PV assets). Our results show that our model can predict power factors with mean absolute error of less than 6.2% under full observability scenario and under 8.6% under the partial observability scenario. Thus, our data-driven model can reduce the amount of simulations required to compute real and reactive injections from PV systems in the distribution system with or without complete information.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2019

A Cooperative Multi-Agent Deep Reinforcement Learning Framework for Real-Time Residential Load Scheduling

Internet-of-Things (IoT) enabled monitoring and control capabilities are enabling increasing numbers of household users with controllable loads to actively participate in smart grid energy management. Realizing an efficient real-time energy management system that takes advantage of these developments requires novel techniques for managing the increased complexity of the control action space in resolving multiple challenges such as the uncertainty in energy prices and renewable energy output along with the need to satisy physical grid constraints such as transformer capacity. Addressing these challenges, we develop a multi-household energy management framework for residential units connected to the same transformer and containing DERs such as PV, ESS and controllable loads. The goal of our framework is to schedule controllable household appliances and ESS such that the cost of procuring electricity from the utility over a horizon is minimized while physical grid constraints are satisfied at each scheduling step. Traditional energy management frameworks either perform global optimization to satisfy grid constraints but suffer from high computational complexity (for example Integer Program, Mixed Integer Programming frameworks and centralized reinforcement learning) or perform decentralized real-time energy management without satisfying global grid constraints (for example multi-agent reinforcement learning with no cooperation). In contrast, we propose a cooperative multiagent reinforcement learning (MARL) framework that i) operates in real-time, and ii) performs explicit collaboration to satisfy global grid constraints. The novelty in our framework is two fold. Firstly, our framework trains multiple independent learners (IL) for each household in parallel using historical data and performs real-time inferencing of control actions using the most recent system state. Secondly, our framework contains a low complexity knapsack based cooperation agent which combines the outputs of ILs to minimize cost while satisfying grid constraints. Simulation results show that our cooperative MARL approach achieves significant cost improvement over centralized reinforcement learning and day-ahead planning baselines. Moreover, our approach strictly satisfies physical constraints with no apriori knowledge of system dynamics while the baseline approaches have occasional violations. We also measure the training and inference time by ranging the number of households from 1 to 25. Results show that our cooperative MARL approach scales best among various approaches.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2018

Optimal Discrete Net-Load Balancing in Smart Grids with High PV Penetration

Mitigating supply-demand mismatch is essential for smooth power grid operation. Traditionally, load curtailment techniques such as demand response have been used for this purpose. However, these cannot be the only component of a net-load balancing framework for smart grids with high PV penetration. These grids sometimes exhibit supply surplus, causing overvoltages. Currently, these are mitigated using voltage manipulation techniques such as Volt-Var Optimizations, which are computationally expensive, thereby increasing the complexity of grid operations. Taking advantage of recent technological developments that enable rapid selective connection of PV modules of an installation to the grid, we develop a unified net-load balancing framework that performs both load and solar curtailment. We demonstrate that when the available curtailment values are discrete, this problem is NP-hard and we develop bounded approximation algorithms. Our algorithms produce fast solutions, given the tight timing constraints required for grid operation, while ensuring that practical constraints such as fairness, network capacity limits, and so forth are satisfied. We also develop an online algorithm that performs net-load balancing using only data available for the current interval. Using both theoretical analysis and practical evaluations, we show that our net-load balancing algorithms provide solutions that are close to optimal in a small amount of time.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2018

Risk aware net load balancing in micro grids with high DER penetration

The rapid transformation of micro grids due to the accelerated integration of renewables, storage systems and IoT enabled monitoring and control has opened up new opportunities as well as challenges. Future micro grids will be characterized by high DER penetration and will require sophisticated net load balancing frameworks which explicitly consider the errors in prediction of load and generation due to uncertainty in weather conditions while making decisions. Traditional techniques for grid net load management which rely on isolated shaping of load and supply curves are inadequate and inefficient. For micro grids with high PV penetration, the intermittent and unpredictable nature of PV based energy generation can lead to dramatic and sudden supply demand imbalances thus requiring a holistic framework for balancing net load over the entire horizon. In this paper, we develop a sequential decision making framework for net load management that optimally balances the usage of storage and energy market transactions as a mechanism for mitigating supply demand imbalances (net load imbalances) over the horizon. Our framework specifically accounts for prediction uncertainty of future net load imbalances and minimizes the tail end risk of storage shortfall at the end of the horizon. Using qualitative analysis, we show that our framework achieves its objective of minimum cost net load balancing while accounting for the tail end risk.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2018

NO-LESS: Near optimal curtailment strategy selection for net load balancing in micro grids

The integration of renewable energy sources such as solar PVs into micro grids has increased in recent years. However, the intermittent and unpredictable nature of renewable energy generation makes supply uncertain, in turn requiring continuous net load balancing to ensure grid stability. One technique to achieve net load balancing is curtailment, however, selection of the optimal set of curtailment strategies to achieve a targeted curtailment is NP-hard. State-of-the-art curtailment selection techniques approach this problem by either developing computationally expensive optimal curtailment strategies or reduce accuracy to generate sub-optimal solutions quickly. In this work, we develop NO-LESS: a Near OptimaL CurtailmEnt Strategy Selection algorithm. NO-LESS is a novel Fully Polynomial Time Approximation Scheme (FPTAS) which determines bounded (near optimal) curtailment strategies in a small amount of time while simultaneously satisfying practical constraints on strategy switching overhead and curtailment fairness. We perform both theoretical analysis and practical evaluation to show that NO-LESS is a scalable solution for performing net load balancing through curtailment strategy selection in Micro Grids.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2018

Temporal ensemble learning of univariate methods for short term load forecasting

Short term load forecasting (STLF) is a fundamental component of demand response programs in smart grids. Recent literature has focused on complex neural networks and deep learning models for solving STLF. While these models work well for load forecasting with complex non-linear relationships, they have been shown to be less effective than simpler univariate models for STLF problems with under a 6 hours horizon. Given the lack of multivariate data (such as temperature) in many practical datasets, we need better univariate prediction models for STLF. By partitioning the dataset by temporal features, we develop a novel ensemble learning method that exploits daily seasonality in electricity consumption data to improve accuracy of popular univariate models. We train an ensemble of models from the dataset partitions. We develop a variety of methods, including Ridge Regression, to increase the robustness of the ensemble prediction. To show the effectiveness of our approach, we perform detailed evaluation using an aggregated user electricity consumption dataset collected by the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP). We select four popular prediction algorithms in literature for our experiments, including Kernel Regression (KR), Support Vector Regression (SVR) and neural network approaches. We compare the performance of these algorithms applying our ensemble approach to training only one single model. Our approach leads to an 11.2% decrease in mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and 21.3% decrease in root mean squared error (RMSE) over the single model approach for KR, and a 30% and 32.4% decrease in MAPE and RMSE respectively for SVR. These ensemble models also outperform the neural network approaches.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2017

Optimal net-load balancing in smart grids with high PV penetration

Mitigating mismatches in supply demand curve is critical for smooth power grid operation. Traditionally, load curtailment techniques such as Demand Response (DR) have been used for this purpose. However, smart grids with high PV penetration sometimes exhibit supply surplus causing over-voltages. Thus, load curtailment techniques cannot be the only component of a net-load balancing framework. Supply curtailment techniques such as Volt-Var Optimizations are complex and computationally expensive. This increases the complexity of net-load balancing systems used by the grid operator and limits their scalability. Recently, new technologies have been developed that enable the rapid and selective connection of PV modules of an installation to the grid. Taking advantage of these advancements, we develop a unified optimal net-load balancing framework which performs both load and solar curtailment. We show that when the available curtailment values are discrete, this problem is NP-hard and develop bounded approximation algorithms for minimizing the curtailment cost. Our algorithms produce fast solutions, given the tight timing constraints required for grid operation. We also incorporate the notion of fairness to ensure that curtailment is evenly distributed among all the nodes. Finally, we develop an online algorithm which performs net-load balancing using only data available for the current interval. Using both theoretical analysis and practical evaluations, we show that our net-load balancing algorithms provide solutions which are close to optimal in a small amount of time.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2017

Behind-the-Meter Solar Generation Disaggregation using Consumer Mixture Models

To facilitate deep penetration of solar energy in smart grids, we need high observability of solar generation at the edges of the grid. Current advanced metering infrastructures (AMI) only monitor the aggregated measurements from net-metered households, but disaggregated consumption and solar generation components are required for grid optimizations. We propose an unsupervised disaggregation model for disaggregating solar generation from AMI measurements without the need of training data. The model requires only AMI measurements from consumers in a region and the solar irradiance as input, and models the consumption of consumers by neighboring households without rooftop photovoltaics (PV) to perform the disaggregation. We evaluate our results on a real life dataset from Austin, Texas. We show that our model is able to disaggregate consumption and solar generation measurements with 42.24% and 31.67% less mean squared error, respectively, in comparison to a baseline technique that uses supervised learning. This shows that our model is capable of disaggregating historical data even if the dataset has no training data and only contains minimal exogenous data.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2016

Automated Dynamic Demand Response Implementation on a Micro-grid

In this paper, we describe a system for real-time automated Dynamic and Sustainable Demand Response with sparse data consumption prediction implemented on the University of Southern California campus microgrid. Supply side approaches to resolving energy supply-load imbalance do not work at high levels of renewable energy penetration. Dynamic Demand Response (D 2 R) is a widely used demand-side technique to dynamically adjust electricity consumption during peak load periods. Our D 2 R system consists of accurate machine learning based energy consumption forecasting models that work with sparse data coupled with fast and sustainable load curtailment optimization algorithms that provide the ability to dynamically adapt to changing supply-load imbalances in near real-time. Our Sustainable DR (SDR) algorithms attempt to distribute customer curtailment evenly across sub-intervals during a DR event and avoid expensive demand peaks during a few sub-intervals. It also ensures that each customer is penalized fairly in order to achieve the targeted curtailment. We develop near linear-time constant-factor approximation algorithms along with Polynomial Time Approximation Schemes (PTAS) for SDR curtailment that minimizes the curtailment error defined as the difference between the target and achieved curtailment values. Our SDR curtailment problem is formulated as an Integer Linear Program that optimally matches customers to curtailment strategies during a DR event while also explicitly accounting for customer strategy switching overhead as a constraint. We demonstrate the results of our D 2 R system using real data from experiments performed on the USC smartgrid and show that 1) our prediction algorithms can very accurately predict energy consumption even with noisy or missing data and 2) our curtailment algorithms deliver DR with extremely low curtailment errors in the 0.01-0.05 kWh range.

Kuppannagari, Sanmukh R.↗

DOE OSTI2015

An ILP based Algorithm for Optimal Customer Selection for Demand Response in SmartGrids

Demand Response (DR) events are initiated by utilities during peak demand periods to curtail consumption. They ensure system reliability and minimize the utility’s expenditure. Selection of the right customers and strategies is critical for a DR event. An effective DR scheduling algorithm minimizes the curtailment error which is the absolute difference between the achieved curtailment value and the target. State-of-the-art heuristics exist for customer selection, however their curtailment errors are unbounded and can be as high as 70%. In this work, we develop an Integer Linear Programming (ILP) formulation for optimally selecting customers and curtailment strategies that minimize the curtailment error during DR events in SmartGrids. We perform experiments on real world data obtained from the University of Southern California’s SmartGrid and show that our algorithm achieves near exact curtailment values with errors in the range of 10 -7 to 10 -5 , which are within the range of numerical errors. We compare our results against the state-of-the-art heuristic being deployed in practice in the USC SmartGrid. We show that for the same set of available customer strategy pairs our algorithm performs 103 to 107 times better in terms of the curtailment errors incurred.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2015

Prediction Models for Dynamic Demand Response

As Smart Grids move closer to dynamic curtailment programs, Demand Response (DR) events will become necessary not only on fixed time intervals and weekdays predetermined by static policies, but also during changing decision periods and weekends to react to real-time demand signals. Unique challenges arise in this context vis-a-vis demand prediction and curtailment estimation and the transformation of such tasks into an automated, efficient dynamic demand response (D 2 R) process. While existing work has concentrated on increasing the accuracy of prediction models for DR, there is a lack of studies for prediction models for D 2 R, which we address in this paper. Our first contribution is the formal definition of D 2 R, and the description of its challenges and requirements. Our second contribution is a feasibility analysis of very-short-term prediction of electricity consumption for D 2 R over a diverse, large-scale dataset that includes both small residential customers and large buildings. Our third, and major contribution is a set of insights into the predictability of electricity consumption in the context of D 2 R. Specifically, we focus on prediction models that can operate at a very small data granularity (here 15-min intervals), for both weekdays and weekends - all conditions that characterize scenarios for D 2 R. We find that short-term time series and simple averaging models used by Independent Service Operators and utilities achieve superior prediction accuracy. We also observe that workdays are more predictable than weekends and holiday. Also, smaller customers have large variation in consumption and are less predictable than larger buildings. Key implications of our findings are that better models are required for small customers and for non-workdays, both of which are critical for D 2 R. Also, prediction models require just few days’ worth of data indicating that small amounts of historical training data can be used to make reliable predictions, simplifying the complexity of big data challenge associated with D 2 R.

Aman, Saima↗

DOE OSTI2015

Big Data Analytics for Demand Response: Clustering Over Space and Time

The pervasive deployment of advanced sensing infrastructure in Cyber-Physical systems, such as the Smart Grid, has resulted in an unprecedented data explosion. Such data exhibit both large volumes and high velocity characteristics, two of the three pillars of Big Data, and have a time-series notion as datasets in this context typically consist of successive measurements made over a time interval. Time-series data can be valuable for data mining and analytics tasks such as identifying the “right” customers among a diverse population, to target for Demand Response programs. However, time series are challenging to mine due to their high dimensionality. In this paper, we motivate this problem using a real application from the smart grid domain. We explore novel representations of time-series data for BigData analytics, and propose a clustering technique for determining natural segmentation of customers and identification of temporal consumption patterns. Our method is generizable to large-scale, real-world scenarios, without making any assumptions about the data. We evaluate our technique using real datasets from smart meters, totaling ~ 18,200,000 data points, and show the efficacy of our technique in efficiency detecting the number of optimal number of clusters.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2015

Fault-Tolerant and Elastic Streaming MapReduce with Decentralized Coordination

The MapReduce programming model, due to its simplicity and scalability, has become an essential tool for processing large data volumes in distributed environments. Recent Stream Processing Systems (SPS) extend this model to provide low-latency analysis of high-velocity continuous data streams. However, integrating MapReduce with streaming poses challenges: first, the runtime variations in data characteristics such as data-rates and key-distribution cause resource overload, that inturn leads to fluctuations in the Quality of the Service (QoS); and second, the stateful reducers, whose state depends on the complete tuple history, necessitates efficient fault-recovery mechanisms to maintain the desired QoS in the presence of resource failures. We propose an integrated streaming MapReduce architecture leveraging the concept of consistent hashing to support runtime elasticity along with locality-aware data and state replication to provide efficient load-balancing with low-overhead fault-tolerance and parallel fault-recovery from multiple simultaneous failures. Our evaluation on a private cloud shows up to 2:8 improvement in peak throughput compared to Apache Storm SPS, and a low recovery latency of 700 -1500 ms from multiple failures.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2015

Estimating Reduced Consumption for Dynamic Demand Response

Growing demand is straining our existing electricity generation facilities and requires active participation of the utility and the consumers to achieve energy sustainability. One of the most effective and widely used ways to achieve this goal in the smart grid is demand response (DR), whereby consumers reduce their electricity consumption in response to a request sent from the utility whenever it anticipates a peak in demand. To successfully plan and implement demand response, the utility requires reliable estimate of reduced consumption during DR. This also helps in optimal selection of consumers and curtailment strategies during DR. While much work has been done on predicting normal consumption, reduced consumption prediction is an open problem that is under-studied. In this paper, we introduce and formalize the problem of reduced consumption prediction, and discuss the challenges associated with it. We also describe computational methods that use historical DR data as well as pre-DR conditions to make such predictions. Our experiments are conducted in the real-world setting of a university campus microgrid, and our preliminary results set the foundation for more detailed modeling.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2014

Efficient Customer Selection for Sustainable Demand Response in Smart Grids

Regulating the power consumption to avoid peaks in demand is a common practice. Demand Response(DR) is being used by utility providers to minimize costs or ensure system reliability. Although it has been used extensively there is a shortage of solutions dealing with dynamic DR. Past attempts focus on minimizing the load demand without considering the sustainability of the reduced energy. In this paper an efficient algorithm is presented which solves the problem of dynamic DR scheduling. Data from the USC campus micro grid were used to evaluate the efficiency as well as the robustness of the proposed solution. The targeted energy reduction is achieved with a maximum average approximation error of ≈ 0.7%. Sustainability of the reduced energy is achieved with respect to the optimal available solution providing a maximum average error less than 0.6%. It is also shown that a solution is provided with a low computational cost fulfilling the requirements of dynamic DR.

change making↗

DOE OSTI2014

Integrated Platform for Automated Sustainable Demand Response in Smart Grids

Demand Response(DR) is a common practice used by utility providers to regulate energy demand. It is used at periods of high demand to minimize the peak to average consumption ratio. Several methods have been Demand Response(DR) is a common praon using information about the baseline consumption and the consumption during DR. Our goal is to provide a sustainable reduction to ensure the elimination of peaks in demand. The proposed system includes an adaptation mechanism for when the provided solution does not meet the DR requirements. We conducted a series of experiments using consumption data from a real life micro grid to evaluate the efficiency as well as the robustness of our solution.

automated demand response↗