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Potter, Christopher

Publications and source records attributed to Potter, Christopher.

At least 19 records

Changes in Vegetation Cover of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge Estimated from MODIS Greenness Trends, 2000 to 2018

The Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) was established in 1980 and covers 19 million acres (77,000 km2) in northeast Alaska. Wildlife habitats in the ANWR are vulnerable to long-lasting effects from any disturbance, in part because short growing seasons in the arctic provide limited time for species to recover. Trends and transitions in the growing season MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time-series at 250-m resolution were analyzed for the period from 2000 to 2018 to understand recent patterns of vegetation change in all ecoregions of the ANWR. Statistical analysis of changes in each MODIS pixel NDVI time series was conducted using the "Breaks for Additive Seasonal and Trend" method (BFAST) to map regional change rates. Results suggested that most negative NDVI anomalies in the tundra-covered river drainages of the Brooks Range Mountains and coastal plain have been associated with early spring thawing and elevated levels of surface moisture in low elevation drainages of the northern ANWR ecoregions.

Arctic National Wildlife Refuge↗

Changes in Vegetation Cover of Yukon River Drainages in Interior Alaska Estimated from MODIS Greenness Trends, 2000 to 2018

Trends and transitions in the growing season MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time-series at 250-m resolution were analyzed for the period from 2000 to 2018 to understand recent patterns of vegetation change in ecosystems of the Yukon River basin in interior Alaska. Statistical analysis of changes in the NDVI time series was conducted using the "Breaks for Additive Seasonal and Trend" method (BFAST). This structural change analysis indicated that NDVI breakpoints and negative 18-yr trends in vegetation greenness over the years since 2000 could be explained in large part by the impacts of severe wildfires, commonly affecting shrubland and forested ecosystems at relatively low elevations (< 300 m).

Potter, Christopher↗

Remote Sensing Monitoring Methods for Detecting Invasive Weed Coverage in Delta Waterways and Bay Marshlands

This presentation is part of the Independent Science Board of the State of California Delta Stewardship Council brown bag seminar series on the "How the Delta is Monitored", followed with a panel discussion. Various remote sensing approaches for aquatic vegetation will be reviewed. Key research and application issues with remote sensing monitoring in the Delta will be addressed.

Invasive↗

Adaptive Management Using Remote Sensing and Ecosystem Modeling in Response to Climate Variability and Invasive Aquatic Plants for the California Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta Water Resource

The California Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta is the hub for California's water supply and supports important ecosystem services, agriculture, and communities in Northern to Southern California. Expansion of invasive aquatic plants in the Delta coupled with impacts of changing climate and long-term drought is detrimental to the San Francisco Bay/California Delta complex. NASA Ames Research Center and the USDA-ARS partnered with the State of California to develop science-based, adaptive-management strategies for invasive aquatic plant in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. Specific mapping tools developed utilizing satellite and airborne platforms provide regular assessments of population dynamics on a landscape scale and support both strategic planning and operational decision making for resource managers. San Joaquin and Sacramento River watersheds water quality input to the Delta is modeled using the Soil-Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and a modified SWAT tool has been customized to account for unique landscape and management of agricultural water supply and drainage within the Delta. Environmental response models for growth of invasive aquatic weeds are being parameterized and coupled with spatial distribution/biomass density mapping and water quality to study ecosystem response to climate and aquatic plant management practices. On the water validation and operational utilization of these tools by management agencies and how they are improving decision making, management effectiveness and efficiency will be discussed. The project combines science, operations, and economics related to integrated management scenarios for aquatic weeds to help land and water resource managers make science-informed decisions regarding management and outcomes.

Adaptive↗

Using Satellite Remote Sensing to Map Changes in Aquatic Invasive Plant Cover in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta of California

Waterways of the Sacramento San Joaquin Delta have recently become infested with invasive aquatic weeds such as floating water hyacinth (Eichhoria crassipes) and water primrose (Ludwigia peploides). These invasive plants cause many negative impacts, including, but not limited to: the blocking of waterways for commercial shipping and boating; clogging of irrigation screens, pumps and canals; and degradation of biological habitat through shading. Zhang et al. (1997, Ecological Applications, 7(3), 1039-1053) used NASA Landsat satellite imagery together with field calibration measurements to map physical and biological processes within marshlands of the San Francisco Bay. Live green biomass (LGB) and related variables were correlated with a simple vegetation index ratio of red and near infra-red bands from Landsat images. More recently, the percent (water area) cover of water hyacinth plotted against estimated LGB of emergent aquatic vegetation in the Delta from September 2014 Landsat imagery showed a 80% overall accuracy. For the past two years, we have partnered with the U. S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the Department of Plant Sciences, University of California at Davis to conduct new validation surveys of water hyacinth and water primrose coverage and LGB in Delta waterways. A plan is underway to transfer decision support tools developed at NASA's Ames Research Center based on Landsat satellite images to improve Delta-wide integrated management of floating aquatic weeds, while reducing chemical control costs. The main end-user for this application project will be the Division of Boating and Waterways (DBW) of the California Department of Parks and Recreation, who has the responsibility for chemical control of water hyacinth in the Delta.

Map Changes↗

Landscape Patterns of Burn Severity in the Soberanes Fire of 2016

The Soberanes Fire started on July 22, 2016 in Monterey County on the California Central Coast from an illegal campfire. This fire burned for 10 weeks at a record cost of more than $208 million for protection and control. A progressive analysis of the normalized burn ratio from the Landsat satellite showed that the final high burn severity (HBS) area for the Soberanes Fire comprised 22 percent of the total area burned, whereas final moderate burn severity (MBS) area comprised about 10 percent of the total area burned of approximately 53,470 ha (132,130 acres). The resulting landscape pattern of burn severity classes from the 2016 Soberanes Fire revealed that the majority of HBS area was located in the elevation zone between 500 and 1000 m, in the slope zone between 15 percent and 30 percent, or on south-facing aspects.

Soberanes Fire↗

Watershed-Scale Modeling of Land-Use and Altered Environment Impacts on Aquatic Weed Growth in the Delta

The California Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta is the hub for California's water supply, conveying water from Northern to Southern California agriculture and communities while supporting important ecosystem services, agriculture, and communities in the Delta. Changes in climate, long-term drought, and water quality have all been suspected as playing role in the dramatic expansion of invasive aquatic plants and their impact on ecosystems of the San Francisco Bay / California Delta complex. NASA Ames Research Center, USDA-Agricultural Research Service, the State of California, UC Davis, and local governments have partnered under a USDA sponsored project (DRAAWP) to develop science-based, adaptive-management strategies for invasive aquatic plants in Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. Critical to developing management strategies is to understand how the Delta is affected by both the magnitude of fluctuations in land-use and climate / drought induced altered environments and how the plants respond to these altered environments. We utilize the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a watershed-scale model developed to quantify the impact of land management practices in large and complex watersheds on water quality, as the backbone for a customized Delta model - Delta-SWAT. The model uses land-use, soils, elevation, and hydrologic routing to characterize pesticide and nutrient transport from the Sacramento and San Joaquin rivers watersheds and loading into the Delta. Land-use within the Delta, as well as water extraction to supply those functions, and the resulting return of water to Delta waterways are included in Delta-SWAT. Hydrologic transport within the Delta has required significant attention to address the lack of elevation driven transport processes. Delta-SWAT water quality trend estimates are compared with water quality monitoring conducted throughout the Delta. Aquatic plant response to water quality and other environmental factors is carried out using a customized model component. Plant response to the range of water quality factors, response times, and altered temperature and light regimes of the Delta have required gap-filling studies to provide model parameters. Delta-SWAT provides a tool for evaluating temporal and spatial effects of land-use and altered environments in the Delta and contributing watersheds on aquatic weed growth. Using Delta-SWAT for simulation modeling allows evaluation of historic and current conditions as well as consideration potential climate change and management practice outcomes. Delta-SWAT adds to the scientific understanding of dynamics in the Delta and enhances development of science-informed, management strategies and practices.

Ecosystem↗

Analysis of Satellite and Airborne Imagery for Detection of Water Hyacinth and Other Invasive Floating Macrophytes and Tracking of Aquatic Weed Control Efficacy

Waterways of the Sacramento San Joaquin Delta have recently become infested with invasive aquatic weeds such as floating water hyacinth (Eichhoria crassipes) and water primrose (Ludwigia peploides). These invasive plants cause many negative impacts, including, but not limited to: the blocking of waterways for commercial shipping and boating; clogging of irrigation screens, pumps and canals; and degradation of biological habitat through shading. Zhang et al. (1997, Ecological Applications, 7(3), 1039-1053) used NASA Landsat satellite imagery together with field calibration measurements to map physical and biological processes within marshlands of the San Francisco Bay. Live green biomass (LGB) and related variables were correlated with a simple vegetation index ratio of red and near infra-red bands from Landsat images. More recently, the percent (water area) cover of water hyacinth plotted against estimated LGB of emergent aquatic vegetation in the Delta from September 2014 Landsat imagery showed an 80 percent overall accuracy. For the past two years, we have partnered with the U. S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the Department of Plant Sciences, University of California at Davis to conduct new validation surveys of water hyacinth and water primrose coverage and LGB in Delta waterways. A plan is underway to transfer decision support tools developed at NASA's Ames Research Center based on Landsat satellite images to improve Delta-wide integrated management of floating aquatic weeds, while reducing chemical control costs. The main end-user for this application project will be the Division of Boating and Waterways (DBW) of the California Department of Parks and Recreation, who has the responsibility for chemical control of water hyacinth in the Delta.

Agriculture↗

Mapping Changes in Desert Pavement Surfaces of the Lower Colorado Desert of Southern California Using Landsat Time Series Analysis

Potential disturbance of desert soils from renewable energy development in southern California is receiving increasing attention due to potential impacts on air quality and greenhouse gas emissions. This study was designed to quantify and map, for the first time, changes in desert pavement surface area using 20 years of Landsat satellite image data across the Lower Colorado Desert. Landsat-derived maps of geomorphic surface classes from 1990 to 2014 for the Lower Colorado Desert area showed that a relatively stable area of around 1920 sq km was covered by well-developed desert pavements prior to 2014. Based on 2014 Landsat imagery, coverage of well-developed pavements within solar energy development boundaries of the Lower Colorado Desert area totaled to 421 sq km, the majority of which (>82%) were located in eastern Riverside County. If disturbed as a result of construction activities, these desert pavements could become a source of dust from exposure of the underlying fine particle layer.

Solar energy development↗

Thirty Years of Change in Subalpine Forest Cover from Landsat Image Analysis in the Sierra Nevada Mountains of California

Landsat imagery was analyzed to understand changes in subalpine forest stands since the mid-1980s in the Sierra-Nevada region of California. At locations where long-term plot measurements have shown that stands are becoming denser in the number of small tree stems (compared to the early 1930s), the 30-year analysis of Landsat greenness index (NDVI) indicated that no consistent increases in canopy leaf cover have occurred at these same locations since the mid-1980s. Interannual variations in stand NDVI closely followed snow accumulation amounts recorded at nearby stations. In contrast, at eastern Sierra whitebark pine stand locations where it has been observed that widespread tree mortality has occurred, decreasing NDVI trends over the past 5-10 years were consistent with rapid loss of forest canopy cover. Landsat imagery was further analyzed to understand patterns of post-wildfire vegetation recovery, focusing on high burn severity (HBS) patches within burned areas dating from the late 1940s. Analysis of landscape metrics showed that the percentage of total HBS area comprised by the largest patch of recovered woody cover was relatively small in all fires that occurred since 1995, but increased rapidly with time since fire. Patch complexity of recovered woody cover decreased notably after more than 50 years of regrowth, but was not readily associated with time for fires that occurred since the mid 1990s. The aggregation level of patches with recovery of woody cover increased steadily with time since fire. The study approach using satellite remote sensing can be expanded to assess the consequences of stand-replacing wildfires in all forests of the region.

Fires↗

Assessment of the 2013-2014 Drought on Ecosystems of the California Central Coast

Calendar year 2013 was the driest on record in California, with a total of just 30 percent of average statewide precipitation. The objective of this present study was to assess the impacts of the historic 2013-2014 drought on ecosystems of the Central Coast region using a combination of satellite image analysis and in situ measurements of soil moisture. According to differences in Landsat NDWI and NDVI between May of 2010 and 2013, the geographic areas within the study region that were most severely impacted by the 2013 drought were the inland Carmel Valley in northern Monterey County, and the coast zones around San Simeon Point and Cambria in northern San Luis Obispo County. For more detailed examination of drought impacts, the entire study region was separated into the three predominate vegetation types (grasslands, shrublands, and forests) to examine changes in Landsat NDWI and NDVI in the context of differing plant community response to severe drought.

Normalized Differences Vegetation Index (NDVI)↗

Changes in Meadow Vegetation Cover in Kings Canyon National Park (California) Based on Three Decades of Landsat Image Analysis

Landsat (30 meter resolution) image analysis over the past 25 years in Kings Canyon National Park was used to track changes in the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Results showed that NDVI values from the wet year of 2010 were significantly lower than NDVI values from the comparatively dry year of 2013 in the majority of meadow areas in the National Park.

Canyons↗

Ten Years of Vegetation Change in Northern California Marshlands Detected using Landsat Satellite Image Analysis

The Landsat Ecosystem Disturbance Adaptive Processing System (LEDAPS) methodology was applied to detected changes in perennial vegetation cover at marshland sites in Northern California reported to have undergone restoration between 1999 and 2009. Results showed extensive contiguous areas of restored marshland plant cover at 10 of the 14 sites selected. Gains in either woody shrub cover and/or from recovery of herbaceous cover that remains productive and evergreen on a year-round basis could be mapped out from the image results. However, LEDAPS may not be highly sensitive changes in wetlands that have been restored mainly with seasonal herbaceous cover (e.g., vernal pools), due to the ephemeral nature of the plant greenness signal. Based on this evaluation, the LEDAPS methodology would be capable of fulfilling a pressing need for consistent, continual, low-cost monitoring of changes in marshland ecosystems of the Pacific Flyway.

Marshland↗

Net Primary Production of Terrestrial Ecosystems from 2000 to 2009

The CASA (Carnegie-Ames-Stanford) ecosystem model has been used to estimate monthly carbon fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems from 2000 to 2009, with global data inputs from NASA's Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) vegetation cover mapping. Net primary production (NPP) flux for atmospheric carbon dioxide has varied slightly from year-to-year, but was predicted to have increased over short multi-year periods in the regions of the high-latitude Northern Hemisphere, South Asia, Central Africa, and the western Amazon since the year 2000. These CASA results for global NPP were found to be in contrast to other recently published modeling trends for terrestrial NPP with high sensitivity to regional drying patterns. Nonetheless, periodic declines in regional NPP were predicted by CASA for the southern and western Untied States, the southern Amazon, and southern and eastern Africa. NPP in tropical forest zones was examined in greater detail to discover lower annual production values than previously reported in many global models across the tropical rainforest zones, likely due to the enhanced detection of lower production ecosystems replacing primary rainforest.

Terrestiral ecosystems↗