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Potgieter, M. S.

Publications and source records attributed to Potgieter, M. S..

The simulation of complete 11 and 12 year modulation cycles for cosmic rays in the heliosphere using a drift model with global merged interaction regions

Two-dimensional, time-dependent drift models have done exceptionally well in explaining major modulation features, especially during the A less than 0 magnetic polarity cycle of the heliospheric magnetic field when positively charge particles are drifting in along the heliospheric neutral sheet (HNS). These models were found to do well when the heliospheric 'tilt angles' alpha less than approximately 30 deg (le Roux & Potgeiter). However, they seem to do less well when alpha greater than approximately 30 deg during A less than 0 cycles seem to fail when this happens in A greater than 0 cycles. Progress was made in understanding these phases of the modulation cycle when merged interaction regions (MIRs) were incorporated in time-dependent drift models (Potgieter et al.). It was also explicitly shown that in obtaining large step decreases in cosmic rays, the MIRs had to be global, i.e., having a latitudinal extent of more than approximately 60 deg. Other classes of MIRs, such as local MIRs and co-rotating MIRs were found to be of secondary importance for establishing long-term modulation. In a previous paper we studied the effects of two consecutive, identical global MIRs, together with a changing wavy HNS, on long-term modulation (Potegieter & le Roux). This approach gave a very natural and convincing explanation for the observed step decreases in cosmic-ray modulation. Emphasis was placed in the declining and recovery phases of the 11 yr modulation cycle. In this paper, four consecutive, nonidentical global MIRs, in combination with a varying wavy HNS, were included in our time-dependent drift model in order to do simulations closer to what was observed between 1977 and 1987. By doing this we could model, for the first time, complete 11 and 22 yr cycles in the heliospheric modulation of galactic cosmic-rays, including the solar magnetic polarity reversals.

Le Roux, J. A.

The role of merged interaction regions and drafts in the heliospheric modulation of cosmic rays beyond 20 AU - A computer simulation

Voyager 2 magnetic field measurements are used to simulate merged interaction and rarefaction regions (MIRs and RRs) for 1985-1989 via numerical solutions of the time-dependent, axially symmetric transport equation of cosmic rays in the heliosphere, together with the concurrent use of the wavy neutral sheet as a time-dependent drift parameter. This drift approach was found to be more successful, because it was able to reproduce the intensity levels, the factor modulation, and latitudinal gradients for 1 GeV protons at 23 AU.

Potgieter, M. S.

The simulated features of heliospheric cosmic-ray modulation with a time-dependent drift model. IV - The role of heliospheric neutral sheet deformation

Previous calculations with a time-dependent drift model revealed the model to be less successful in describing time-dependent modulation during periods of moderate to large solar activity. In this paper, it is argued that a major reason for this is that the previously used wavy heliospheric neutral sheet (HNS) description was based on an idealized HNS not subject to any spatial evolution while propagating radially outward. It is suggested that the deformation and compression of HNS wave peaks will lead to significant increases in the crossfield diffusion across these peaks (short-circuiting). The cosmic rays will effectively experience reduced tilt angles and therefore a reduction in the integrated HNS modulation effect between an observer and the heliospheric boundary. During periods of moderate to large solar activity these HNS deformation processes are progressively more frequent and should lead to a significant reduction in time-dependent modulation as predicted by drift models. Calculations done with radially propagating tilt angles that effectively decrease with radial distance give the expected reduction which improves the general description of modulation from 1987-1988.

Le Roux, J. A.

The simulated features of heliospheric cosmic-ray modulation with a time-dependent drift model. III - General energy dependence

The time-dependent cosmic-ray transport equation is solved numerically in an axially symmetric heliosphere. Gradient and curvature drifts are incorporated, together with an emulated wavy neutral sheet. This model is used to simulate heliospheric cosmic-ray modulation for the period 1985-1989 during which drifts are considered to be important. The general energy dependence of the modulation of Galactic protons is studied as predicted by the model for the energy range 1 MeV to 10 GeV. The corresponding instantaneous radial and latitudinal gradients are calculated, and it is found that, whereas the latitudinal gradients follow the trends in the waviness of the neutral sheet to a large extent for all energies, the radial gradients below about 200 MeV deviate from this general pattern. In particular, these gradients increase when the waviness decreases for the simulated period 1985-1987.3, after which they again follow the neutral sheet by increasing rapidly.

Potgieter, M. S.

The simulated features of heliospheric cosmic-ray modulation with a time-dependent drift model. II - On the energy dependence of the onset of new modulation in 1987

Time-dependent heliospheric cosmic-ray modulation for the period 1985-1989 is simulated by means of a time-dependent axially symmetric drift model with an emulated wavy heliospheric neutral sheet (HNS). The model is used to extend previous calculations to other energies in order to study a possible energy-dependence of the onset of new modulation at various radial distances in 1987. The model, with the outward propagating changes of the HNS as the only time-dependent parameters, is found to predict essentially no energy-dependence in the time when new modulation started in the simulated 1987. When a more practical approach in defining 'constant' modulation in 1987 is followed, the present calculations can be interpreted to indicate that the end of the recovery period in 1987 happened progressively earlier and the onset of new modulation progressively later the higher the rigidity of the cosmic rays. This period of relatively unchanged modulation is predicted to last longer with increasing radial distance.

Le Roux, J. A.

The simulated features of heliospheric cosmic-ray modulation with a time-dependent drift model. I - General effects of the changing neutral sheet over the period 1985-1990

A time-dependent drift model is used to simulate the heliospheric modulation of galactic cosmic rays, with emphasis on the effects of the wavy heliospheric neutral sheet (HNS) as a function of time during the period 1985-1990. The model predicted a clearly defined time difference between the time when minimum modulation occurred at earth and at radial distances farther away from the sun, indicating that the HNS plays an important part in establishing this observed time delay. The movements of the Voyager 1 and 2 and Pioneer 10 spacecraft were simulated in order to calculate instantaneous radial and latitudinal gradients. The time dependencies of these gradients were found to follow the observations well. The model study indicates that the HNS cannot be ignored, especially during periods of low to moderate solar activity, when the modulation of cosmic rays is described.

Potgieter, M. S.

The effect of the changing polarity and neutral sheet of the IMF on the cosmic ray diurnal anisotropy at neutron monitor energies

A drift with a simulated wavy neutral sheet have been used to study the effects of the reversal of the solar magnetic field every 11 years and the changes in the waviness of the heliospheric neutral sheet, corresponding to changes in solar activity, on the diurnal anisotropy at an energy of 20 GeV. The results indicate that the long-term behavior of the diurnal anisotropy, especially the phase shift from one solar minimum period to another, which seems to depend on the polarity of the IMF, has a theoretical explanation in the drift picture of the modulation of cosmic rays in the heliosphere.

Van Staden, M. L.

A new calculation of the cosmic-ray antiproton spectrum in the Galaxy and heliospheric modulation effects on this spectrum using a drift plus wavy current sheet model

The expected interstellar antiproton spectrum arising from cosmic-ray interactions in the Galaxy is recalculated, and the modulation of both antiprotons and protons is calculated using a two-dimensional modulation model incorporating gradient and curvature drifts and a wavy current sheet as well as the usual diffusion, convection, and energy-loss effects. Significant differences in the antiproton/proton ratio for different solar magnetic field polarities are predicted as well as a 'low-energy' component for antiprotons below about 1 GeV.

Webber, W. R.

Drift and observations in cosmic-ray modulation, 1

It is illustrated that a relative simple drift model can, in contrast with no drift models, simultaneously fit proton and electron spectra observed in 1965-66 and 1977, using a single set of modulation parameters except for a change in the IMF polarity. This result is interpreted together with the observation of Evenson and Meyer that electrons are recovering more rapidly than protons after 1980, in contrast with what Burger and Swanenburg observed in 1968-72, as a charge sign dependent effect due to the occurrence of drift in cosmic ray modulation. The same set of parameters produces a shift in the phase and amplitude of the diurnal anisotropy vector, consistent with observations in 1969-71 and 1980-81.

Potgieter, M. S.

Drift and observations in cosmic-ray modulation, 2

The significant effect of drift on the radial and latitudinal dependence of cosmic rays for consecutive solar minimum periods is illustrated. Compared with the integral radial gradient observed in 1976, the calculated value seems too small. A detailed comparison will however have to await the forthcoming solar minimum. The same applies to the latitudinal gradient which is as yet inconclusive about drift effects. Searching the literature for observations related to the IMF polarity reversal, distinct differences were found in neutron monitor response functions for consecutive solar minimum periods, and also in the annual variations of cosmic rays observed before and after polarity reversals. Whether drift is the predominant effect is however not yet clear. Better correlation was found between variations in the cosmic ray intensity and solar activity parameters over a much wider range of heliolatitude during 1970-80 compared to before this period.

Potgieter, M. S.

On the anomalous component

The so-called anomalous cosmic ray component, which occurs at energies of about 10 MeV/nucleon and consists only of He, N, O, and Ne, has been a subject of interest for more than a decade. The origin of this component is generally considered to be interstellar neutral gas that is ionized and accelerated in the solar wind. The mechanism and the location for the acceleration, however, remains an unsolved problem. A model is used which includes the effects of gradient and curvature drifts and considers the implications of observed spatial gradients of the anomalous component for the location of the acceleration region. It is concluded that if drifts are important the acceleration region cannot lie at the solar poles. It is also concluded that there is no single region for the acceleration which can account for both the observed intensities and gradients in models which include drift effects.

Potgieter, M. S.