Engineering topics
Plummer, David
Publications and source records attributed to Plummer, David.
Three Decades of Global Methane Sources and Sinks
Methane is an important greenhouse gas, responsible for about 20 of the warming induced by long-lived greenhouse gases since pre-industrial times. By reacting with hydroxyl radicals, methane reduces the oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere and generates ozone in the troposphere. Although most sources and sinks of methane have been identified, their relative contributions to atmospheric methane levels are highly uncertain. As such, the factors responsible for the observed stabilization of atmospheric methane levels in the early 2000s, and the renewed rise after 2006, remain unclear. Here, we construct decadal budgets for methane sources and sinks between 1980 and 2010, using a combination of atmospheric measurements and results from chemical transport models, ecosystem models, climate chemistry models and inventories of anthropogenic emissions. The resultant budgets suggest that data-driven approaches and ecosystem models overestimate total natural emissions. We build three contrasting emission scenarios which differ in fossil fuel and microbial emissions to explain the decadal variability in atmospheric methane levels detected, here and in previous studies, since 1985. Although uncertainties in emission trends do not allow definitive conclusions to be drawn, we show that the observed stabilization of methane levels between 1999 and 2006 can potentially be explained by decreasing-to-stable fossil fuel emissions, combined with stable-to-increasing microbial emissions. We show that a rise in natural wetland emissions and fossil fuel emissions probably accounts for the renewed increase in global methane levels after 2006, although the relative contribution of these two sources remains uncertain.
Global Premature Mortality Due to Anthropogenic Outdoor Air Pollution and the Contribution of Past Climate Change
Increased concentrations of ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) since preindustrial times reflect increased emissions, but also contributions of past climate change. Here we use modeled concentrations from an ensemble of chemistry–climate models to estimate the global burden of anthropogenic outdoor air pollution on present-day premature human mortality, and the component of that burden attributable to past climate change. Using simulated concentrations for 2000 and 1850 and concentration–response functions (CRFs), we estimate that, at present, 470 000 (95% confidence interval, 140 000 to 900 000) premature respiratory deaths are associated globally and annually with anthropogenic ozone, and 2.1 (1.3 to 3.0) million deaths with anthropogenic PM2.5-related cardiopulmonary diseases (93%) and lung cancer (7%). These estimates are smaller than ones from previous studies because we use modeled 1850 air pollution rather than a counterfactual low concentration, and because of different emissions. Uncertainty in CRFs contributes more to overall uncertainty than the spread of model results. Mortality attributed to the effects of past climate change on air quality is considerably smaller than the global burden: 1500 (−20 000 to 27 000) deaths yr (exp -1) due to ozone and 2200 (−350 000 to 140 000) due to PM2.5. The small multi-model means are coincidental, as there are larger ranges of results for individual models, reflected in the large uncertainties, with some models suggesting that past climate change has reduced air pollution mortality.
The Einstein Slew Survey
A catalog of 819 sources detected in the Einstein IPC Slew Survey of the X-ray sky is presented; 313 of the sources were not previously known as X-ray sources. Typical count rates are 0.1 IPC count/s, roughly equivalent to a flux of 3 x 10 exp -12 ergs/sq cm s. The sources have positional uncertainties of 1.2 arcmin (90 percent confidence) radius, based on a subset of 452 sources identified with previously known pointlike X-ray sources (i.e., extent less than 3 arcmin). Identifications based on a number of existing catalogs of X-ray and optical objects are proposed for 637 of the sources, 78 percent of the survey (within a 3-arcmin error radius) including 133 identifications of new X-ray sources. A public identification data base for the Slew Survey sources will be maintained at CfA, and contributions to this data base are invited.
Identifications of Einstein Slew Survey sources
The status of identifications of the Einstien Slew Survey, a bright soft x-ray catalog with 550 new x-ray sources, is discussed. Possible counterparts were found for greater than 95 percent of the Slew Survey based on positional coincidences and color-color diagnostics. The survey will be fully identified via upcoming radio and optical observations.
Einstein Slew Survey: Data analysis innovations
Several new methods were needed in order to make the Einstein Slew X-ray Sky Survey. The innovations which enabled the Slew Survey to be done are summarized. These methods included experimental approach to large projects, parallel processing on a LAN, percolation source detection, minimum action identifications, and rapid dissemination of the whole data base.
Extragalactic counterparts to Einstein slew survey sources
The Einstein slew survey consists of 819 bright X-ray sources, of which 636 (or 78 percent) are identified with counterparts in standard catalogs. The importance of bright X-ray surveys is stressed, and the slew survey is compared to the Rosat all sky survey. Statistical techniques for minimizing confusion in arcminute error circles in digitized data are discussed. The 238 slew survey active galactic nuclei, clusters, and BL Lacertae objects identified to date and their implications for logN-logS and source evolution studies are described.
The Einstein All-Sky IPC slew survey
The construction of the Einstein All-Sky Imaging Proportional Counter (IPC) slew survey is considered. It contains approximately 1000 sources between 10(exp -12) and 10(exp -10) erg/sq cm/s with a concentration toward the ecliptic poles and away from the galactic plane. Several sizable samples of bright soft X-ray selected objects for follow-up ROSAT and ASTRO-D observations and statistical study are presented. The survey source list is expected to be available by late 1989. Both paper and remote access online data base versions are to be available. An identification program is considered.