Engineering Papers⌕ Search

Engineering topics

Pincus, Robert

Publications and source records attributed to Pincus, Robert.

15 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

A More Transparent Infrared Window

The infrared window region (780–1,250 cm –1 , 12.8 to 8.0 μm) is of great importance to Earth's climate due to its high transparency and thermal energy. We present here a new investigation of the transparency of this spectral region based on observations by interferometers of downwelling surface radiance at two DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program sites. We focus on the dominant source of absorption in this region, the water vapor continuum, and derive updated values of spectral absorption coefficients for both the self and foreign continua. Our results show that the self continuum is too strong in the previous version of Mlawer-Tobin_Clough-Kneizys-Davies (MT_CKD) water vapor continuum model, a result that is consistent with other recent analyses, while the foreign continuum is too weak in MT_CKD. In general, the weaker self continuum derived in this study results in an overall increase in atmospheric transparency in the window, although in atmospheres with low amounts of water vapor the transparency may slightly decrease due to the increase in foreign continuum absorption. These continuum changes lead to a significant decrease in downwelling longwave flux at the surface for moist atmospheres and a modest increase in outgoing longwave radiation. The increased fraction of surface-leaving radiation that escapes to space leads to a notable increase (~5–10%) in climate feedback, implying that climate simulations that use the new infrared window continuum will show somewhat less warming than before. This study also points out the possibly important role that aerosol absorption may play in the longwave radiative budget.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2019

ESD Reviews: Model Dependence in Multi-Model Climate Ensembles: Weighting, Sub-Selection and Out-Of-Sample Testing

The rationale for using multi-model ensembles in climate change projections and impacts research is often based on the expectation that different models constitute independent estimates; therefore, a range of models allows a better characterisation of the uncertainties in the representation of the climate system than a single model. However, it is known that research groups share literature, ideas for representations of processes, parameterisations, evaluation data sets and even sections of model code. Thus, nominally different models might have similar biases because of similarities in the way they represent a subset of processes, or even be near-duplicates of others, weakening the assumption that they constitute independent estimates. If there are near-replicates of some models, then treating all models equally is likely to bias the inferences made using these ensembles. The challenge is to establish the degree to which this might be true for any given application. While this issue is recognised by many in the community, quantifying and accounting for model dependence in anything other than an ad-hoc way is challenging. Here we present a synthesis of the range of disparate attempts to define, quantify and address model dependence in multi-model climate ensembles in a common conceptual framework, and provide guidance on how users can test the efficacy of approaches that move beyond the equally weighted ensemble. In the upcoming Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), several new models that are closely related to existing models are anticipated, as well as large ensembles from some models. We argue that quantitatively accounting for dependence in addition to model performance, and thoroughly testing the effectiveness of the approach used will be key to a sound interpretation of the CMIP ensembles in future scientific studies.

Abramowitz, Gab↗
NASA NTRS2019

Taking Climate Model Evaluation to the Next Level

Earth system models are complex and represent a large number of processes, resulting in a persistent spread across climate projections for a given future scenario. Owing to different model performances against observations and the lack of independence among models, there is now evidence that giving equal weight to each available model projection is suboptimal. This Perspective discusses newly developed tools that facilitate a more rapid and comprehensive evaluation of model simulations with observations, process-based emergent constraints that are a promising way to focus evaluation on the observations most relevant to climate projections, and advanced methods for model weighting. These approaches are needed to distil the most credible information on regional climate changes, impacts, and risks for stakeholders and policy-makers.

Eyring, Veronika↗
NASA NTRS2018

Internal Variability and Disequilibrium Confound Estimates of Climate Sensitivity from Observations

An emerging literature suggests that estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) derived from recent observations and energy balance models are biased low because models project more positive climate feedback in the far future. Here we use simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to show that across models, ECS inferred from the recent historical period (1979-2005) is indeed almost uniformly lower than that inferred from simulations subject to abrupt increases in CO2-radiative forcing. However, ECS inferred from simulations in which sea surface temperatures are prescribed according to observations is lower still. ECS inferred from simulations with prescribed sea surface temperatures is strongly linked to changes to tropical marine low clouds. However, feedbacks from these clouds are a weak constraint on long-term model ECS. One interpretation is that observations of recent climate changes constitute a poor direct proxy for long-term sensitivity.

Marvel, Kate↗
NASA NTRS2016

Contributions of the ARM Program to Radiative Transfer Modeling for Climate and Weather Applications

Accurate climate and weather simulations must account for all relevant physical processes and their complex interactions. Each of these atmospheric, ocean, and land processes must be considered on an appropriate spatial and temporal scale, which leads these simulations to require a substantial computational burden. One especially critical physical process is the flow of solar and thermal radiant energy through the atmosphere, which controls planetary heating and cooling and drives the large-scale dynamics that moves energy from the tropics toward the poles. Radiation calculations are therefore essential for climate and weather simulations, but are themselves quite complex even without considering the effects of variable and inhomogeneous clouds. Clear-sky radiative transfer calculations have to account for thousands of absorption lines due to water vapor, carbon dioxide, and other gases, which are irregularly distributed across the spectrum and have shapes dependent on pressure and temperature. The line-by-line (LBL) codes that treat these details have a far greater computational cost than can be afforded by global models. Therefore, the crucial requirement for accurate radiation calculations in climate and weather prediction models must be satisfied by fast solar and thermal radiation parameterizations with a high level of accuracy that has been demonstrated through extensive comparisons with LBL codes. See attachment for continuation.

climatology↗
NASA NTRS2015

Radiative Flux and Forcing Parameterization Error in Aerosol-Free Clear Skies

This article reports on the accuracy in aerosol- and cloud-free conditions of the radiation parameterizations used in climate models. Accuracy is assessed relative to observationally validated reference models for fluxes under present-day conditions and forcing (flux changes) from quadrupled concentrations of carbon dioxide. Agreement among reference models is typically within 1 W/m2, while parameterized calculations are roughly half as accurate in the longwave and even less accurate, and more variable, in the shortwave. Absorption of shortwave radiation is underestimated by most parameterizations in the present day and has relatively large errors in forcing. Error in present-day conditions is essentially unrelated to error in forcing calculations. Recent revisions to parameterizations have reduced error in most cases. A dependence on atmospheric conditions, including integrated water vapor, means that global estimates of parameterization error relevant for the radiative forcing of climate change will require much more ambitious calculations.

Climate↗
NASA NTRS2012

Effects of Cloud Horizontal Inhomogeneity and Drizzle on Remote Sensing of Cloud Droplet Effective Radius: Case Studies Based on Large-eddy Simulations

This study investigates effects of drizzle and cloud horizontal inhomogeneity on cloud effective radius (re) retrievals from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). In order to identify the relative importance of various factors, we developed a MODIS cloud property retrieval simulator based on the combination of large-eddy simulations (LES) and radiative transfer computations. The case studies based on synthetic LES cloud fields indicate that at high spatial resolution (100 m) 3-D radiative transfer effects, such as illumination and shadowing, can induce significant differences between retrievals ofre based on reflectance at 2.1 m (re,2.1) and 3.7 m (re,3.7). It is also found that 3-D effects tend to have stronger impact onre,2.1 than re,3.7, leading to positive difference between the two (re,3.72.1) from illumination and negative re,3.72.1from shadowing. The cancellation of opposing 3-D effects leads to overall reasonable agreement betweenre,2.1 and re,3.7 at high spatial resolution as far as domain averages are concerned. At resolutions similar to MODIS, however, re,2.1 is systematically larger than re,3.7when averaged over the LES domain, with the difference exhibiting a threshold-like dependence on bothre,2.1and an index of the sub-pixel variability in reflectance (H), consistent with MODIS observations. In the LES cases studied, drizzle does not strongly impact reretrievals at either wavelength. It is also found that opposing 3-D radiative transfer effects partly cancel each other when cloud reflectance is aggregated from high spatial resolution to MODIS resolution, resulting in a weaker net impact of 3-D radiative effects onre retrievals. The large difference at MODIS resolution between re,3.7 and re,2.1 for highly inhomogeneous pixels with H 0.4 can be largely attributed to what we refer to as the plane-parallelrebias, which is attributable to the impact of sub-pixel level horizontal variability of cloud optical thickness onre retrievals and is greater for re,2.1 than re,3.7. These results suggest that there are substantial uncertainties attributable to 3-D radiative effects and plane-parallelre bias in the MODIS re,2.1retrievals for pixels with strong sub-pixel scale variability, and theH index can be used to identify these uncertainties.

Zhang, Zhibo↗
NASA NTRS2011

Reconciling Simulated and Observed Views of Clouds: MODIS, ISCCP, and the Limits of Instrument Simulators in Climate Models

The properties of clouds that may be observed by satellite instruments, such as optical depth and cloud top pressure, are only loosely related to the way clouds are represented in models of the atmosphere. One way to bridge this gap is through "instrument simulators," diagnostic tools that map the model representation to synthetic observations so that differences between simulator output and observations can be interpreted unambiguously as model error. But simulators may themselves be restricted by limited information available from the host model or by internal assumptions. This work examines the extent to which instrument simulators are able to capture essential differences between MODIS and ISCCP, two similar but independent estimates of cloud properties. We focus on the stark differences between MODIS and ISCCP observations of total cloudiness and the distribution of cloud optical thickness can be traced to different approaches to marginal pixels, which MODIS excludes and ISCCP treats as homogeneous. These pixels, which likely contain broken clouds, cover about 15% of the planet and contain almost all of the optically thinnest clouds observed by either instrument. Instrument simulators can not reproduce these differences because the host model does not consider unresolved spatial scales and so can not produce broken pixels. Nonetheless, MODIS and ISCCP observation are consistent for all but the optically-thinnest clouds, and models can be robustly evaluated using instrument simulators by excluding ambiguous observations.

Pincus, Robert↗
NASA NTRS2011

Reconciling Simulated and Observed Views of Clouds: MODIS, ISCCP, and the Limits or Instrument Simulators

The properties of clouds that may be observed by satellite instruments, such as optical depth and cloud top pressure, are only loosely related to the way clouds m-e represented in models of the atmosphere. One way to bridge this gap is through "instrument simulators," diagnostic tools that map the model representation to synthetic observations so that differences between simulator output and observations can be interpreted unambiguously as model error. But simulators may themselves be restricted by limited information available from the host model or by internal assumptions. This paper considers the extent to which instrument simulators are able to capture essential differences between MODIS and ISCCP, two similar but independent estimates of cloud properties. The authors review the measurements and algorithms underlying these two cloud climatologies, introduce a MODIS simulator, and detail data sets developed for comparison with global models using ISCCP and MODIS simulators, In nature MODIS observes less mid-level doudines!> than ISCCP, consistent with the different methods used to determine cloud top pressure; aspects of this difference are reproduced by the simulators running in a climate modeL But stark differences between MODIS and ISCCP observations of total cloudiness and the distribution of cloud optical thickness can be traced to different approaches to marginal pixels, which MODIS excludes and ISCCP treats as homogeneous. These pixels, which likely contain broken clouds, cover about 15 k of the planet and contain almost all of the optically thinnest clouds observed by either instrument. Instrument simulators can not reproduce these differences because the host model does not consider unresolved spatial scales and so can not produce broken pixels. Nonetheless, MODIS and ISCCP observation are consistent for all but the optically-thinnest clouds, and models can be robustly evaluated using instrument simulators by excluding ambiguous observations.

Ackerman, Steven A.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Cloud Properties Observed by MODIS: Preliminary Level-3 Results from the Collection 5 Reprocessing

The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) was developed by NASA and launched onboard the Terra spacecraft on December 18, 1999 and Aqua spacecraft on May 4, 2002. It achieved its final orbit and began Earth observations on February 24, 2000 for Terra and June 24, 2002 for Aqua. A comprehensive set of operational algorithms for the retrieval of cloud physical and optical properties (optical thickness, effective particle radius, water path, thermodynamic phase) have recently been updated and are being used in the new "Collection 5" processing stream being produced by the MODIS Adaptive Processing System (MODAPS) at NASA GSFC. All Terra and Aqua data are undergoing Collection 5 reprocessing with an expected completion date by the end of 2006. The archived products from these algorithms include 1 km pixel-level (Level-2) and global gridded Level-3 products. The cloud products have applications in climate change studies, climate modeling, numerical weather prediction, as well as fundamental atmospheric research. In this talk, we will summarize the available Level-3 cloud properties and their associated statistical data sets, and show preliminary Terra and Aqua results from the available Collection 5 reprocessing effort. Anticipated results include the latitudinal distribution of cloud optical and radiative properties for both liquid water and ice clouds, as well as joint histograms of cloud optical thickness and effective radius for selected geographical locations around the world.

King, Michael D.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Cloud and Aerosol Properties, Precipitable Water, and Profiles of Temperature and Water Vapor from MODIS

The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) is an earth-viewing sensor that flies on the Earth Observing System (EOS) Terra and Aqua satellites, launched in 1999 and 2002, respectively. MODIS scans a swath width of 2330 km that is sufficiently wide to provide nearly complete global coverage every two days from a polar-orbiting, sun-synchronous, platform at an altitude of 705 km. MODIS provides images in 36 spectral bands between 0.415 and 14.235 pm with spatial resolutions of 250 m (2 bands), 500 m (5 bands) and 1000 m (29 bands). These bands have been carefully selected to en- able advanced studies of land, ocean, and atmospheric properties. Twenty-six bands are used to derive atmospheric properties such as cloud mask, atmospheric profiles, aerosol properties, total precipitable water, and cloud properties. In this paper we describe each of these atmospheric data products, including characteristics of each of these products such as file size, spatial resolution used in producing the product, and data availability.

King, Michael D.↗
NASA NTRS2002

A Study of Uncertainties for MODIS Cloud Retrievals of Optical Thickness and Effective Radius

The investigation spanned four linked components as summarized in section III, each relating to some aspect of uncertainty assessment in the retrieval of cloud optical and microphysical properties using solar reflectance algorithms such as the MODIS operational cloud product (product IDS MOD06, MDY06 for Terra and Aqua, respectively). As discussed, three of these components have been fully completed (items (l), (2), and (3) while item (4) has been partially completed. These efforts have resulted in peer-reviewed publications and/or information delivered to the MODIS P.I. (M. D. King) for inclusion in the cloud product Quality Assessment (QA) output, a portion of the product output used, in part, for retrieval error assignments. This final report begins with a synopsis of the proposed investigation (section III) followed by a summary of work performed up through the last report including updates (section IV). Section V describes new activities. Publications from the efforts are listed in section VI. Figures (available in powerpoint format) are found in section VII.

Platnick, Steven↗
NASA NTRS1995

Uncertainty in cloud optical depth estimates made from satellite radiance measurements

The uncertainty in optical depths retrieved from satellite measurements of visible wavelength radiance at the top of the atmosphere is quantified. Techniques are briefly reviewed for the estimation of optical depth from measurements of radiance, and it is noted that these estimates are always more uncertain at greater optical depths and larger solar zenith angles. The lack of radiometric calibration for visible wavelength imagers on operational satellites dominates the uncertainty retrievals of optical depth. This is true for both single-pixel retrievals and for statistics calculated from a population of individual retrievals. For individual estimates or small samples, sensor discretization can also be significant, but the sensitivity of the retrieval to the specification of the model atmosphere is less important. The relative uncertainty in calibration affects the accuracy with which optical depth distributions measured by different sensors may be quantitatively compared, while the absolute calibration uncertainty, acting through the nonlinear mapping of radiance to optical depth, limits the degree to which distributions measured by the same sensor may be distinguished.

Pincus, Robert↗
NASA NTRS1990

Pegsat - First Pegasus payload

Pegsat was designed, built, and tested in slightly more than 6 months to meet the planned launch date for the first launch of the Pegasus vehicle. The primary objective of this multifunction spacecraft was to obtain environmental data from the Pegasus vehicle for use in designing future satellite busses. Taking full advantage of the opportunity, Pegsat also deployed a small Navy experimental satellite, and conducted scientific experiments over northern Canada in support of the upcoming CRRES mission.

Pincus, Robert↗