Engineering topics

Pesnell, William D.

Publications and source records attributed to Pesnell, William D..

11 records

NASA NTRS2016

Predictions of Solar Cycle 24: How are We Doing?

Predictions of solar activity are an essential part of our Space Weather forecast capability. Users are requiring usable predictions of an upcoming solar cycle to be delivered several years before solar minimum. A set of predictions of the amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 accumulated in 2008 ranged from zero to unprecedented levels of solar activity. The predictions formed an almost normal distribution, centered on the average amplitude of all preceding solar cycles. The average of the current compilation of 105 predictions of the annual-average sunspot number is 106 +/- 31, slightly lower than earlier compilations but still with a wide distribution. Solar Cycle 24 is on track to have a below-average amplitude, peaking at an annual sunspot number of about 80. Our need for solar activity predictions and our desire for those predictions to be made ever earlier in the preceding solar cycle will be discussed. Solar Cycle 24 has been a below-average sunspot cycle. There were peaks in the daily and monthly averaged sunspot number in the Northern Hemisphere in 2011 and in the Southern Hemisphere in 2014. With the rapid increase in solar data and capability of numerical models of the solar convection zone we are developing the ability to forecast the level of the next sunspot cycle. But predictions based only on the statistics of the sunspot number are not adequate for predicting the next solar maximum. I will describe how we did in predicting the amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 and describe how solar polar field predictions could be made more accurate in the future.

Pesnell, William D.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Deciphering Solar Magnetic Activity. I. On the Relationship Between the Sunspot Cycle and the Evolution of Small Magnetic Features

Sunspots are a canonical marker of the Sun's internal magnetic field which flips polarity every ~22 yr. The principal variation of sunspots, an ~11 yr variation, modulates the amount of the magnetic field that pierces the solar surface and drives significant variations in our star's radiative, particulate, and eruptive output over that period. This paper presents observations from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory and Solar Dynamics Observatory indicating that the 11 yr sunspot variation is intrinsically tied to the spatio-temporal overlap of the activity bands belonging to the 22 yr magnetic activity cycle. Using a systematic analysis of ubiquitous coronal brightpoints and the magnetic scale on which they appear to form, we show that the landmarks of sunspot cycle 23 can be explained by considering the evolution and interaction of the overlapping activity bands of the longer-scale variability.

Sun: interior↗

NASA NTRS2013

The Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) Education and Outreach (E/PO) Program: Changing Perceptions One Program at a Time

We outline the context and overall philosophy for the combined Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) Education and Public Outreach (E/PO) program, present a brief overview of all SDO E/PO programs along with more detailed highlights of a few key programs, followed by a review of our results to date, conclude a summary of the successes, failures, and lessons learned, which future missions can use as a guide, while incorporating their own content to enhance the public's knowledge and appreciation of science and technology as well as its benefit to society.

STEM↗

NASA NTRS2012

The Extreme-ultraviolet Emission from Sun-grazing Comets

The Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on the Solar Dynamics Observatory has observed two Sun-grazing comets as they passed through the solar atmosphere. Both passages resulted in a measurable enhancement of extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) radiance in several of the AIA bandpasses.We explain this EUV emission by considering the evolution of the cometary atmosphere as it interacts with the ambient solar atmosphere. Molecules in the comet rapidly sublimate as it approaches the Sun. They are then photodissociated by the solar radiation field to create atomic species. Subsequent ionization of these atoms produces a higher abundance of ions than normally present in the corona and results in EUV emission in the wavelength ranges of the AIA telescope passbands.

Comets↗

NASA NTRS2012

NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO): A Systems Approach to a Complex Mission

The Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) includes three advanced instruments, massive science data volume, stringent science data completeness requirements, and a custom ground station to meet mission demands. The strict instrument science requirements imposed a number of challenging drivers on the overall mission system design, leading the SDO team to adopt an integrated systems engineering presence across all aspects of the mission to ensure that mission science requirements would be met. Key strategies were devised to address these system level drivers and mitigate identified threats to mission success. The global systems engineering team approach ensured that key drivers and risk areas were rigorously addressed through all phases of the mission, leading to the successful SDO launch and on-orbit operation. Since launch, SDO's on-orbit performance has met all mission science requirements and enabled groundbreaking science observations, expanding our understanding of the Sun and its dynamic processes.

systems engineering↗

NASA NTRS2012

NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO): A Systems Approach to a Complex Mission

The Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) includes three advanced instruments, massive science data volume, stringent science data completeness requirements, and a custom ground station to meet mission demands. The strict instrument science requirements imposed a number of challenging drivers on the overall mission system design, leading the SDO team to adopt an integrated systems engineering presence across all aspects of the mission to ensure that mission science requirements would be met. Key strategies were devised to address these system level drivers and mitigate identified threats to mission success. The global systems engineering team approach ensured that key drivers and risk areas were rigorously addressed through all phases of the mission, leading to the successful SDO launch and on-orbit operation. Since launch, SDO s on-orbit performance has met all mission science requirements and enabled groundbreaking science observations, expanding our understanding of the Sun and its dynamic processes.

Ruffa, John A.↗

NASA NTRS2008

The Solar Dynamics Observatory

The Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) is the first Space Weather Mission in NASA's Living With a Star Program. SDO's main goal is to understand, driving towards a predictive capability, those solar variations that influence life on Earth and humanity's technological systems. The past decade has seen an increasing emphasis on understanding the entire Sun, from the nuclear reactions at the core to the development and loss of magnetic loops in the corona. SDO's three science investigations (HMI, AIA, and EVE) will determine how the Sun's magnetic field is generated and structured, how this stored magnetic energy is released into the heliosphere and geospace as the solar wind, energetic particles, and variations in the solar irradiance. SDO will return full-disk Dopplergrams, full-disk vector magnetograms, full-disk images at nine EIUV wavelengths, and EUV spectral irradiances, all taken at a rapid cadence. This means you can 'observe the database' to study events, but we can also move forward in producing quantitative models of what the Sun is doing today. SDO is scheduled to launch in 2008 on an Atlas V rocket from the Kennedy Space Center, Cape Canaveral, Florida. The satellite will fly in a 28 degree inclined geosynchronous orbit about the longitude of New Mexico, where a dedicated Ka-band ground station will receive the 150 Mbps data flow. How SDO data will transform the study of the Sun and its affect on Space Weather studies will be discussed.

Pesnell, William D.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Variability of Solar Irradiances Using Wavelet Analysis

We have used wavelets to analyze the sunspot number, F10.7 (the solar irradiance at a wavelength of approx.10.7 cm), and Ap (a geomagnetic activity index). Three different wavelets are compared, showing how each selects either temporal or scale resolution. Our goal is an envelope of solar activity that better bounds the large amplitude fluctuations form solar minimum to maximum. We show how the 11-year cycle does not disappear at solar minimum, that minimum is only the other part of the solar cycle. Power in the fluctuations of solar-activity-related indices may peak during solar maximum but the solar cycle itself is always present. The Ap index has a peak after solar maximum that appears to be better correlated with the current solar cycle than with the following cycle.

Pesnell, William D.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Self-consistent Non-LTE Model of Infrared Molecular Emissions and Oxygen Dayglows in the Mesosphere and Lower Thermosphere

We present the new version of the ALI-ARMS (for Accelerated Lambda Iterations for Atmospheric Radiation and Molecular Spectra) model. The model allows simultaneous self-consistent calculating the non-LTE populations of the electronic-vibrational levels of the O3 and O2 photolysis products and vibrational level populations of CO2, N2,O2, O3, H2O, CO and other molecules with detailed accounting for the variety of the electronic-vibrational, vibrational-vibrational and vibrational-translational energy exchange processes. The model was used as the reference one for modeling the O2 dayglows and infrared molecular emissions for self-consistent diagnostics of the multi-channel space observations of MLT in the SABER experiment It also allows reevaluating the thermalization efficiency of the absorbed solar ultraviolet energy and infrared radiative cooling/heating of MLT by detailed accounting of the electronic-vibrational relaxation of excited photolysis products via the complex chain of collisional energy conversion processes down to the vibrational energy of optically active trace gas molecules.

Feofilov, Artem G.↗

NASA NTRS2006

The Polar Summer MLT Plasma Environment as Seen by the DROPPS Sounding Rockets

During early July, 1999, the DROPPS (Distribution and Role of Particles in the Polar Summer Mesosphere) campaign launched two rocket payloads whose purpose was to study the polar summer MLT (mesosphere and lower thermosphere), particularly PMSEs (polar mesospheric summer echoes) and PMCs (polar mesospheric clouds). The rockets were launched from the Anderya Rocket Range in Norway the nights of the 5th and 14th of July. Both payloads included a front-mounted PID (Particle Impact Detector) consisting of charge and mass telescopes to measure aerosol and dust mass distributions. Ice particles of nanometer size are believed to be responsible for PMSEs through the process of electron scavenging. Evidence for this process is suggested, for example, by the presence of an electron "biteout" simultaneously measured by several instruments at an altitude of approx. 82 - 87km during the first DROPPS launch. This presentation will characterize similarities and differences between both flights as seen by the charge and mass telescopes, starting at launch until the loss of data on the downleg of each flight. Various stages of the flights will be considered in detail, such as the PMSE layer and the apogee at 117 km, as well as the calibration of the data before launch.

Assis, Michael P.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Sources, Propagators, and Sinks of Space Weather

Space Weather is a complex web of sources, propagators, and sinks of energy, mass, and momentum. A complete understanding of Space Weather requires specifying, and an ability to predict, each link in this web. One important problem in Space Weather is ranking the importance of a particular measurement or model in a research program. One way to do this ranking is to examine the simplest linked diagram of the sources, propagators, and sinks and produce. By analyzing only those components that contribute to a particular area the individual contributions can be better appreciated. Several such diagrams will be shown and used to discuss how long-term effects of Space Weather can be separated from the impulsive effects.

Pesnell, William D.↗