Engineering topics

Pesnell, W. Dean

Publications and source records attributed to Pesnell, W. Dean.

18 records

NASA NTRS2019

A Time-Distance Helioseismology Method for Quasi-Linear Geometries

Helioseismology is the study of the solar interior, through which we extract flow and wave-speed information from Doppler velocity observations at the surface. Local helioseismology involves the study of small regions on the solar disk and is used to create a detailed picture of the interior in that particular region. Perturbations in the flow and wave-speed results indicate, e.g. magnetic-flux or temperature variations. There are multiple methods used in local-helioseismic research, but all current local-helioseismic techniques assume a point-source perturbation. For this study, we develop a new time-distance (TD) helioseismic methodology that can exploit the quasi-linear geometry of an elongated feature, allowing us to i) improve the signal-to-noise ratio of the TD results, and ii) greatly decrease the number of calculations required and therefore the computing time of the TD analysis. Ultimately, the new method will allow us to investigate solar features with magnetic-field configurations previously unexplored. We validate our new technique using a simple F-mode wave simulation, comparing results of point-source and linear perturbations. Results indicate that local-helioseismic analysis is dependent on the geometry of the system and can be improved by taking the magnetic-field configuration into account.

Hess Webber, Shea A.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Orbits Through Polytropes

We describe how orbital tunnels could be used to transport payloads through the Earth. If you use a brachistochrone for the tunnel, the body forces in the tunnel become overwhelmingly large for small angular distances traveled. Projectiles move along an orbital tunnel faster than they would along abrachistochrone connecting the same points but the body force components cancel. We describe how parabolic Keplerian orbits outside the object merge onto quasi-Keplerian orbits inside the object. We use models of the interior of the Earth with three values of the polytropic index (n) to calculate interior or bits that travel between surface points. The nÂ¼3 results are also scaled to the Sun. Numerical integrations of the equations describing polytropes were used to generate the initial models. Numerical integration of the equations of motion are then used to calculate the angular distance you can travel along the surface and the traversal time as a function of the parabolic periaps is distance for each model. Trajectories through objects of low central condensation show a focusing effect that decreases as the central condensation increases. Analytic solutions for the trajectories in a homogeneous sphere are derived and compared to the numeric results. The results can be scaled to other planets, stars, or even globular clusters.

Gjerlov, Amalia↗

NASA NTRS2018

Effects of Version 2 of the International Sunspot Number on Naive Predictions of Solar Cycle 25

The recalibration of the International Sunspot Number brings new challenges to predictions of Solar Cycle 25. One is that the list of extrema for the original series is no longer usable because the values of all maxima and minima are different for the new version of the sunspot number. Timings of extrema are less sensitive to the recalibration but are a natural result of the calculation. Predictions of Solar Cycle 25 published before 2016 must be converted to the new version of the sunspot number. Any prediction method that looks across the entire time span will have to be reconsidered because values in the nineteenth century were corrected by a larger factor than those in the twentieth century. We report a list of solar maxima and minima values and timings based on the recalibrated sunspot number. Naïve forecasts that depend only on the current values of the time series are common in economic studies. Several naïve predictions of Solar Cycle 25, the climatological average (180 ± 60), two versions of the inertial forecast, and two versions of the even-odd forecast, are derived from that table. The climatological average forecast is the baseline for more accurate predictions and the initial forecast in assimilative models of the Sun. It also provides the error estimate for Monte Carlo techniques that anticipate the long-term effects on the terrestrial environment. The other four predictions are shown to be statistically insignificant.

Pesnell, W. Dean↗

NASA NTRS2018

An Early Prediction of the Amplitude of Solar Cycle 25

A “Solar Dynamo” (SODA) Index prediction of the amplitude of Solar Cycle 25 is described. The SODA Index combines values of the solar polar magnetic field and the solar spectral irradiance at 10.7 cm to create a precursor of future solar activity. The result is an envelope of solar activity that minimizes the 11-year period of the sunspot cycle. We show that the variation in time of the SODA Index is similar to several wavelet transforms of the solar spectral irradiance at 10.7 cm. Polar field predictions for Solar Cycles 21 – 24 are used to show the success of the polar field precursor in previous sunspot cycles. Using the present value of the SODA index, we estimate that the next cycle’s smoothed peak activity will be about 140 ± 30 solar flux units for the 10.7 cm radio flux and a Version 2 sunspot number of 135 ± 25. This suggests that Solar Cycle 25 will be comparable to Solar Cycle 24. The estimated peak is expected to occur near 2025.2 ± 1.5 year. Because the current approach uses data prior to solar minimum, these estimates may improve as the upcoming solar minimum draws closer.

Solar Cycle Predictions↗

NASA NTRS2016

On the Absence of EUV Emission from Comet C/2012 S1 (ISON)

When the sungrazing comet C2012 S1 (ISON) made its perihelion passage within two solar radii of the Sun's surface, it was expected to be a bright emitter at extreme ultraviolet (EUV) wavelengths. However, despite solar EUV telescopes repointing to track the orbit of the comet, no emission was detected. This null result is interesting in its own right, offering the possibility of placing limits on the size and composition of the nucleus. We explain the lack of detection by considering the properties of the comet and the solar atmosphere that determine the intensity of EUV emission from sungrazing comets. By comparing these properties with those of sungrazing comet C2011 W3 (Lovejoy), which did emit in the EUV, we conclude that the primary factor resulting in non-detectable EUV emission from C2012 S1 (ISON) was an insufficiently large nucleus. We conclude that the radius of C2012 S1 (ISON) was at least a factor of four less than that of C2011 W3 (Lovejoy). This is consistent with white-light observations in the days before perihelion that suggested the comet was dramatically reducing in size on approach.

Bryans, Paul↗

NASA NTRS2014

Predicting Solar Cycle 24 Using a Geomagnetic Precursor Pair

We describe using Ap and F(10.7) as a geomagnetic-precursor pair to predict the amplitude of Solar Cycle 24. The precursor is created by using F(10.7) to remove the direct solar-activity component of Ap. Four peaks are seen in the precursor function during the decline of Solar Cycle 23. A recurrence index that is generated by a local correlation of Ap is then used to determine which peak is the correct precursor. The earliest peak is the most prominent but coincides with high levels of non-recurrent solar activity associated with the intense solar activity of October and November 2003. The second and third peaks coincide with some recurrent activity on the Sun and show that a weak cycle precursor closely following a period of strong solar activity may be difficult to resolve. A fourth peak, which appears in early 2008 and has recurrent activity similar to precursors of earlier solar cycles, appears to be the "true" precursor peak for Solar Cycle 24 and predicts the smallest amplitude for Solar Cycle 24. To determine the timing of peak activity it is noted that the average time between the precursor peak and the following maximum is approximately equal to 6.4 years. Hence, Solar Cycle 24 would peak during 2014. Several effects contribute to the smaller prediction when compared with other geomagnetic-precursor predictions. During Solar Cycle 23 the correlation between sunspot number and F(10.7) shows that F(10.7) is higher than the equivalent sunspot number over most of the cycle, implying that the sunspot number underestimates the solar-activity component described by F(10.7). During 2003 the correlation between aa and Ap shows that aa is 10 % higher than the value predicted from Ap, leading to an overestimate of the aa precursor for that year. However, the most important difference is the lack of recurrent activity in the first three peaks and the presence of significant recurrent activity in the fourth. While the prediction is for an amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 of 65 +/- 20 in smoothed sunspot number, a below-average amplitude for Solar Cycle 24, with maximum at 2014.5+/-0.5, we conclude that Solar Cycle 24 will be no stronger than average and could be much weaker than average.

predictions↗

NASA NTRS2013

Time-Series Analysis of Supergranule Characterstics at Solar Minimum

Sixty days of Doppler images from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) / Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) investigation during the 1996 and 2008 solar minima have been analyzed to show that certain supergranule characteristics (size, size range, and horizontal velocity) exhibit fluctuations of three to five days. Cross-correlating parameters showed a good, positive correlation between supergranulation size and size range, and a moderate, negative correlation between size range and velocity. The size and velocity do exhibit a moderate, negative correlation, but with a small time lag (less than 12 hours). Supergranule sizes during five days of co-temporal data from MDI and the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) / Helioseismic Magnetic Imager (HMI) exhibit similar fluctuations with a high level of correlation between them. This verifies the solar origin of the fluctuations, which cannot be caused by instrumental artifacts according to these observations. Similar fluctuations are also observed in data simulations that model the evolution of the MDI Doppler pattern over a 60-day period. Correlations between the supergranule size and size range time-series derived from the simulated data are similar to those seen in MDI data. A simple toy-model using cumulative, uncorrelated exponential growth and decay patterns at random emergence times produces a time-series similar to the data simulations. The qualitative similarities between the simulated and the observed time-series suggest that the fluctuations arise from stochastic processes occurring within the solar convection zone. This behavior, propagating to surface manifestations of supergranulation, may assist our understanding of magnetic-field-line advection, evolution, and interaction.

Dopplergrams↗

NASA NTRS2013

Analysis of Supergranule Sizes and Velocities Using Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO)/Helioseismic Magnetic Imager (HMI) and Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO)/Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) Dopplergrams

Co-temporal Doppler images from Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO)/ Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) and Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO)/Helioseismic Magnetic Imager (HMI) have been analyzed to extract quantitative information about global properties of the spatial and temporal characteristics of solar supergranulation. Preliminary comparisons show that supergranules appear to be smaller and have stronger horizontal velocity flows within HMI data than was measured with MDI. There appears to be no difference in their evolutionary timescales. Supergranule sizes and velocities were analyzed over a ten-day time period at a 15-minute cadence. While the averages of the time-series retain the aforementioned differences, fluctuations of these parameters first observed in MDI data were seen in both MDI and HMI time-series, exhibiting a strong cross-correlation. This verifies that these fluctuations are not instrumental, but are solar in origin. The observed discrepancies between the averaged values from the two sets of data are a consequence of instrument resolution. The lower spatial resolution of MDI results in larger observed structures with lower velocities than is seen in HMI. While these results offer a further constraint on the physical nature of supergranules, they also provide a level of calibration between the two instruments.

Dopplergrams↗

NASA NTRS2011

The Solar Dynamics Observatory: Your On-Orbit Eye on the Sun

The Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) was launched on February 11, 2010 into the partly cloudy skies above Cape Canaveral, Florida. Over the next month SDO moved into a 28 degree inclined geosynchronous orbit at the longitude of the ground station in New Mexico. SDO is the first Space Weather Mission in NASA's Living With a Star Program. SDO's main goal is to understand and predict those solar variations that influence life on Earth and our technological systems. The SDO science investigations will determine how the Sun's magnetic field is generated and structured, how this stored magnetic energy is released into the heliosphere as the solar wind, energetic particles, and variations in the solar irradiance. The SDO mission consists of three scientific investigations (AIA, EVE, and HMI), a spacecraft bus, and a dedicated Ka-band ground station to handle the 150 Mbps data flow. SDO continues a long tradition of NASA missions providing calibrated solar spectral irradiance data, in this case using multiple measurements of the irradiance and rocket underflights of the spacecraft. The other instruments on SDO will be used to explain and develop predictive models of the solar spectral irradiance in the extreme ultraviolet. Science teams at LMSAL, LASP, and Stanford are responsible for processing, analyzing, distributing, and archiving the science data. We will talk about the launch of SDO and describe the data and science it is providing to NASA.

Pesnell, W. Dean↗

NASA NTRS2011

Inter-Hemispheric Coupling During Recent North Polar Summer Periods as Predicted by MaCWAVE/MIDAS Rocket Data and Traced by TIMED/SABER Measurements

In July, 2002, the MaCWAVE-MIDAS Rocket Program was launched from And0ya Rocket Range (ARR) in Norway. Data from these flights demonstrated that the polar summer mesosphere during this period was unusual, at least above ARR. Theoretical studies have since been published that imply that the abnormal characteristics of this polar summer were generated by dynamical processes occurring in the southern polar winter hemisphere. We have used data from the SABER instrument aboard the NASA TIMED Satellite to study these characteristics and compare them with the features observed in the ensuing eight years. For background, the TIMED Satellite was launched on December 7, 2001 to study the dynamics and energy of the mesosphere and lower thermosphere. The SABER instrument is a limb scanning infrared radiometer designed to measure temperature of the region as well as a large number of minor constituents. In this study, we review the MaCWAVE rocket results. Next, we investigate the temperature characteristics of the polar mesosphere as a function of spatial and temporal considerations. We have used the most recent SABER dataset (1.07). Weekly averages are used to make comparisons between the winter and summer hemispheres. Furthermore, the data analysis agrees with recent theoretical studies showing that this behavior is a result of anomalous dynamical events in the southern hemisphere. The findings discussed here clearly show the value of scientific rocket flights used in a discovery mode.

Goldberg, Richard A.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Comparisons of Supergranule Characteristics During the Solar Minima of Cycles 22/23 and 23/24

Supergranulation is a component of solar convection that manifests itself on the photosphere as a cellular network of around 35 Mm across, with a turnover lifetime of 1 2 days. It is strongly linked to the structure of the magnetic field. The horizontal, divergent flows within supergranule cells carry local field lines to the cell boundaries, while the rotational properties of supergranule upflows may contribute to the restoration of the poloidal field as part of the dynamo mechanism, which controls the solar cycle. The solar minimum at the transition from cycle 23 to 24 was notable for its low level of activity and its extended length. It is of interest to study whether the convective phenomena that influence the solar magnetic field during this time differed in character from periods of previous minima. This study investigates three characteristics (velocity components, sizes and lifetimes) of solar supergranulation. Comparisons of these characteristics are made between the minima of cycles 22/23 and 23/24 using MDI Doppler data from 1996 and 2008, respectively. It is found that whereas the lifetimes are equal during both epochs (around 18 h), the sizes are larger in 1996 (35.9 plus or minus 0.3 Mm) than in 2008 (35.0 plus or minus 0.3 Mm), while the dominant horizontal velocity flows are weaker (139 plus or minus m per second in 1996; 141 plus or minus 1 m per second in 2008). Although numerical differences are seen, they are not conclusive proof of the most recent minimum being inherently unusual.

Williams, Peter E.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Properties of Supergranulation During the Solar Minima of Cycles 22/23 and 23/24

The solar minimum at the transition from cycle 23 to 24 was notable for its low level of activity and its extended duration. Among the various fields of study, the evolution of the solar convection zone may provide insight into the causes and consequences of this recent minimum. This study continues previous investigations of the characteristics of solar supergranulation, a convection component strongly linked to the structure of the magnetic field, namely the time-evolution of the global mean of supergranule cell size, determined from spectral analysis of MDI Dopplergrams from the two previous solar minima. Analyses of the global mean of supergranule sizes show a quasi-oscillatory nature to the evolution of this particular supergranule characteristic. Performing similar analyses on realistic, synthetic Doppler images show similar time-dependent characteristics. We conclude that the observed fluctuations are not observational artifacts, and that an underlying trend exists within the evolution of the supergranulation network.

Williams, Peter E.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Solar Cycle #24 and the Solar Dynamo

We focus on two solar aspects related to flight dynamics. These are the solar dynamo and long-term solar activity predictions. The nature of the solar dynamo is central to solar activity predictions, and these predictions are important for orbital planning of satellites in low earth orbit (LEO). The reason is that the solar ultraviolet (UV) and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) spectral irradiances inflate the upper atmospheric layers of the Earth, forming the thermosphere and exosphere through which these satellites orbit. Concerning the dynamo, we discuss some recent novel approaches towards its understanding. For solar predictions we concentrate on a solar precursor method, in which the Sun s polar field plays a major role in forecasting the next cycle s activity based upon the Babcock- Leighton dynamo. With a current low value for the Sun s polar field, this method predicts that solar cycle #24 will be one of the lowest in recent times, with smoothed F10.7 radio flux values peaking near 130+ 30 (2 4, in the 2013 timeframe. One may have to consider solar activity as far back as the early 20th century to find a cycle of comparable magnitude. Concomitant effects of low solar activity upon satellites in LEO will need to be considered, such as enhancements in orbital debris. Support for our prediction of a low solar cycle #24 is borne out by the lack of new cycle sunspots at least through the first half of 2007. Usually at the present epoch in the solar cycle (-7+ years after the last solar maximum), for a normal size following cycle, new cycle sunspots would be seen. The lack of their appearance at this time is only consistent with a low cycle #24. Polar field observations of a weak magnitude are consistent with unusual structures seen in the Sun s corona. Polar coronal holes are the hallmarks of the Sun s open field structures. At present, it appears that the polar coronal holes are relatively weak, and there have been many equatorial coronal holes. This appears consistent with a weakening polar field, but coronal hole data must be scrutinized carefully as observing techniques have changed. We also discuss new solar dynamo ideas, and the SODA (Solar Dynamo Amplitude) index, which provides the user with the ability to track the Sun s hidden, dynamo magnetic fields throughout the various stages of the Sun s cycle. Our solar dynamo ideas are a modernization and rejuvenation of the Babcock-Leighton original idea of a shallow solar dynamo, using modem observations that appear to support their shallow dynamo viewpoint. We are in awe of being able to see an object the size of the Sun undergoing as dramatic a change as our model provides in a few short years. The Sun, however, has undergone changes as rapid as this before! The weather on the Sun is at least as fickle as the weather on the Earth.

Pesnell, W. Dean↗

NASA NTRS2007

Solar Cycle #24 and the Solar Dynamo

We focus on two solar aspects related to flight dynamics. These are the solar dynamo and long-term solar activity predictions. The nature of the solar dynamo is central to solar activity predictions, and these predictions are important for orbital planning of satellites in low earth orbit (LEO). The reason is that the solar ultraviolet (UV) and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) spectral irradiances inflate the upper atmospheric layers of the Earth, forming the thermosphere and exosphere through which these satellites orbit. Concerning the dynamo, we discuss some recent novel approaches towards its understanding. For solar predictions we concentrate on a solar precursor method, in which the Sun's polar field plays a major role in forecasting the next cycle s activity based upon the Babcock-Leighton dynamo. With a current low value for the Sun s polar field, this method predicts that solar cycle #24 will be one of the lowest in recent times, with smoothed F10.7 radio flux values peaking near 130 plus or minus 30 (2 sigma), in the 2013 timeframe. One may have to consider solar activity as far back as the early 20th century to find a cycle of comparable magnitude. Concomitant effects of low solar activity upon satellites in LEO will need to be considered, such as enhancements in orbital debris. Support for our prediction of a low solar cycle #24 is borne out by the lack of new cycle sunspots at least through the first half of 2007. Usually at the present epoch in the solar cycle (approx. 7+ years after the last solar maximum), for a normal size following cycle, new cycle sunspots would be seen. The lack of their appearance at this time is only consistent with a low cycle #24. Polar field observations of a weak magnitude are consistent with unusual structures seen in the Sun s corona. Polar coronal holes are the hallmarks of the Sun's open field structures. At present, it appears that the polar coronal holes are relatively weak, and there have been many equatorial coronal holes. This appears consistent with a weakening polar field, but coronal hole data must be scrutinized carefully as observing techniques have changed. We also discuss new solar dynamo ideas, and the SODA (SOlar Dynamo Amplitude) index, which provides the user with the ability to track the Sun's hidden, dynamo magnetic fields throughout the various stages of the Sun's cycle. Our solar dynamo ideas are a modernization and rejuvenation of the Babcock-Leighton original idea of a shallow solar dynamo, using modern observations that appear to support their shallow dynamo viewpoint. We are in awe of being able to see an object the size of the Sun undergoing as dramatic a change as our model provides in a few short years. The Sun, however, has undergone changes as rapid as this before! The weather on the Sun is at least as fickle as the weather on the Earth.

Schatten, Kenneth↗

NASA NTRS2006

The Polar Summer MLT Plasma Environment as seen by the DROPPS Sounding Rockets

During early July, 1999, the DROPPS (Distribution and Role of Particles in the Polar Summer Mesosphere) campaign launched two rocket payloads whose purpose was to study the polar summer MLT (mesosphere and lower thermosphere), particularly PMSEs (polar mesospheric summer echoes) and PMCs (polar mesospheric clouds). The rockets were launched from the And(\o)ya Rocket Range in Norway the nights of the 5th and 14th of July. Both payloads included a front-mounted PID (Particle Impact Detector) consisting of charge and mass telescopes to measure aerosol and dust mass distributions. Ice particles of nanometer size are believed to be responsible for PMSEs through the process of electron scavenging. Evidence for this process is suggested, for example, by the presence of an electron "biteout" simultaneously measured by several instruments at an altitude of $\sim$82-87 km during the first DROPPS launch. This presentation will characterize similarities and differences between both flights as seen by the charge and mass telescopes, starting at launch until the loss of data on the downleg of each flight. Various stages of the flights will be considered in detail, such as the PMSE layer and the apogee at 117 km, as well as the calibration of the data before launch.

Assis, Michael P.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Meteoric Material: An Important Component of Planetary Atmospheres

Interplanetary dust particles (IDPs) interact with all planetary atmospheres and leave their imprint as perturbations of the background atmospheric chemistry and structure. They lead to layers of metal ions that can become the dominant positively charged species in lower ionospheric regions. Theoretical models and radio occultation measurements provide compelling evidence that such layers exist in all planetary atmospheres. In addition IDP ablation products can affect neutral atmospheric chemistry, particularly at the outer planets where the IDPs supply oxygen compounds like water and carbon dioxide to the upper atmospheres. Aerosol or smoke particles from incomplete ablation or recondensation of ablated IDP vapors may also have a significant impact on atmospheric properties.

Grebowsky, Joseph M.↗

NASA NTRS1993

An early solar dynamo prediction: Cycle 23 is approximately cycle 22

In this paper, we briefly review the 'dynamo' and 'geomagnetic precursor' methods of long-term solar activity forecasting. These methods depend upon the most basic aspect of dynamo theory to predict future activity, future magnetic field arises directly from the magnification of pre-existing magnetic field. We then generalize the dynamo technique, allowing the method to be used at any phase of the solar cycle, through the development of the 'Solar Dynamo Amplitude' (SODA) index. This index is sensitive to the magnetic flux trapped within the Sun's convection zone but insensitive to the phase of the solar cycle. Since magnetic fields inside the Sun can become buoyant, one may think of the acronym SODA as describing the amount of buoyant flux. Using the present value of the SODA index, we estimate that the next cycle's smoothed peak activity will be about 210 +/- 30 solar flux units for the 10.7 cm radio flux and a sunspot number of 170 +/- 25. This suggests that solar cycle #23 will be large, comparable to cycle #22. The estimated peak is expected to occur near 1999.7 +/- 1 year. Since the current approach is novel (using data prior to solar minimum), these estimates may improve when the upcoming solar minimum is reached.

Schatten, Kenneth H.↗

NASA NTRS1989

On the possibility of detecting weak magnetic fields in variable white dwarfs

It is suggested that 'weak' magnetic fields of strengths less than 10 to the 6th G may be detectable in some variable white dwarfs. Weak fields can cause subtle changes in the Fourier power spectra of these stars in the form of 'splitting' in frequency of otherwise degenerate signals. Present-day observational and analysis techniques are capable of detecting these changes. It is suggested suggested, by listing some well-studied candidate stars, that perhaps the magnetic signature of splitting has already been observed in at least one object and that the difficult task of intensive measurements of weak fields should now be undertaken of those candidates.

Jones, Philip W.↗