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Pawson, Steven

Publications and source records attributed to Pawson, Steven.

At least 91 records · Page 5

Seasonal Variations of Stratospheric Age Spectra in GEOSCCM

There are many pathways for an air parcel to travel from the troposphere to the stratosphere, each of which takes different time. The distribution of all the possible transient times, i.e. the stratospheric age spectrum, contains important information on transport characteristics. However, it is computationally very expensive to compute seasonally varying age spectra, and previous studies have focused mainly on the annual mean properties of the age spectra. To date our knowledge of the seasonality of the stratospheric age spectra is very limited. In this study we investigate the seasonal variations of the stratospheric age spectra in the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry Climate Model (GEOSCCM). We introduce a method to significantly reduce the computational cost for calculating seasonally dependent age spectra. Our simulations show that stratospheric age spectra in GEOSCCM have strong seasonal cycles and the seasonal cycles change with latitude and height. In the lower stratosphere extratropics, the average transit times and the most probable transit times in the winter/early spring spectra are more than twice as old as those in the summer/early fall spectra. But the seasonal cycle in the subtropical lower stratosphere is nearly out of phase with that in the extratropics. In the middle and upper stratosphere, significant seasonal variations occur in the sUbtropics. The spectral shapes also show dramatic seasonal change, especially at high latitudes. These seasonal variations reflect the seasonal evolution of the slow Brewer-Dobson circulation (with timescale of years) and the fast isentropic mixing (with timescale of days to months).

Li, Feng↗

Transport of Cs-137 from Boreal Biomass Burning in Summer of 2010

The summer of 2010 was a severe fire season in western Russia. Wildfires were detected in the Bryansk region, raising concerns that radionuclide contamination from the Chernobyl accident could be resuspended in the atmosphere. We simulate the transport of passive and particulate tracers of biomass burning from this region using the GEOS5 GOCART model driven by assimilated meteorology. Biomass burning emissions are based on MODIS fire detections. We validate the model against aerosol optical depth from MODIS. Using a range of estimates for Cs-137 emissions during wildfires, we estimate the downwind concentration and deposition of Cs-137 based on the emission ratios of Cs-137 to the simulated tracers. We discuss the sensitivity of our results to the location of the fires and the fraction of Cs-137 resuspended.

Strode, Sarah↗

The Vertical Structure of Relative Humidity and Ozone in the Tropical Upper Troposphere: Intercomparisons Among In Situ Observations, A-Train Measurements and Large-Scale Models

In situ measurements in the tropics have shown that in regions of active convection, relative humidity with respect to ice in the upper troposphere is typically close to saturation on average, and supersaturations greater than 20% are not uncommon. Balloon soundings with the cryogenic frost point hygrometer (CFH) at Costa Rica during northern summer, for example, show this tendency to be strongest between 11 and 15.5 km (345-360 K potential temperature, or approximately 250-120 hPa). this is the altitude range of deep convective detrainment. Additionally, simultaneous ozonesonde measurements show that stratospheric air (O3 greater than 150 ppbv) can be found as low as approximately 14 km (350 K/150 hPa). In contrast, results from northern winter show a much drier upper troposphere and little penetration of stratospheric air below the tropopause at 17.5 km (approximately 383 K). We show that these results are consistent with in situ measurements from the Measurement of Ozone and water vapor by Airbus In-service airCraft (MOZAIC) program which samples a wider, though still limited, range of tropical locations. To generalize to the tropics as a whole, we compare our insitu results to data from two A-Train satellite instruments, the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on the Aqua and Aura satellites respectively. Finally, we examine the vertical structure of water vapor, relative humidity and ozone in the NASA Goddard MERRA analysis, an assimilation dataset, and a new version of the GEOS CCM, a free-running chemistry-climate model. We demonstrate that conditional probability distributions of relative humidity and ozone are a sensitive diagnostic for assessing the representation of deep convection and upper troposphere/lower stratosphere mixing processes in large-scale analyses and climate models.

Selkirk, Henry B.↗

Narrowing of the Upwelling Branch of the Brewer-Dobson Circulation and Hadley Cell in Chemistry-Climate Model Simulations of the 21st Century

Changes in the width of the upwelling branch of the Brewer-Dobson circulation and Hadley cell in the 21st Century are investigated using simulations from a coupled chemistry-climate model. In these model simulations the tropical upwelling region narrows in the troposphere and lower stratosphere. The narrowing of the Brewer-Dobson circulation is caused by an equatorward shift of Rossby wave critical latitudes and Eliassen-Palm flux convergence in the subtropical lower stratosphere. In the troposphere, the model projects an expansion of the Hadley cell's poleward boundary, but a narrowing of the Hadley cell's rising branch. Model results suggest that eddy forcing may also play a part in the narrowing of the rising branch of the Hadley cell.

Li, Feng↗

Narrowing of the Upwelling Branch of the Brewer-Dobson Circulation and Hadley Cell in Chemistry-Climate Model Simulations of the 21st Century

Changes in the width of the upwelling branch of the Brewer-Dobson circulation and Hadley cell in the 21st Century are investigated using simulations from a coupled chemistry-climate model. In these model simulations the tropical upwelling region narrows in the troposphere and lower stratosphere. The narrowing of the Brewer-Dobson circulation is caused by an equatorward shift of Rossby wave critical latitudes and Eliassen-Palm flux convergence in the subtropical lower stratosphere. In the troposphere, the model projects an expansion of the Hadley cell's poleward boundary, but a narrowing of the Hadley rising branch. Model results suggest that the narrowing of the Hadley cell ascent is also eddy-driven.

Li, Feng↗

MERRA: Progress, Applications, and Challenges for the Future

This presentation gives an overview of the results from the Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) project, an atmospheric global reanalysis, recently completed at the NASA/Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO). Comparisons are made with previous and other recent reanalyses to highlight improvements as well as remaining challenges regarding the quality of the reanalyses on diurnal to decadal and longer time scales. Several examples will be presented that highlight some of the strengths of the MERRA product in addressing issues of climate variability on subseasonal to interannual time scales.

Schubert, Siegfried D.↗

Chemical Source Inversion using Assimilated Constituent Observations in an Idealized Two-dimensional System

We present a source inversion technique for chemical constituents that uses assimilated constituent observations rather than directly using the observations. The method is tested with a simple model problem, which is a two-dimensional Fourier-Galerkin transport model combined with a Kalman filter for data assimilation. Inversion is carried out using a Green's function method and observations are simulated from a true state with added Gaussian noise. The forecast state uses the same spectral spectral model, but differs by an unbiased Gaussian model error, and emissions models with constant errors. The numerical experiments employ both simulated in situ and satellite observation networks. Source inversion was carried out by either direct use of synthetically generated observations with added noise, or by first assimilating the observations and using the analyses to extract observations. We have conducted 20 identical twin experiments for each set of source and observation configurations, and find that in the limiting cases of a very few localized observations, or an extremely large observation network there is little advantage to carrying out assimilation first. However, in intermediate observation densities, there decreases in source inversion error standard deviation using the Kalman filter algorithm followed by Green's function inversion by 50% to 95%.

Tangborn, Andrew↗

Aura Microwave Limb Sounder Observations of Dynamics and Transport During the Record-Breaking 2009 Arctic Stratospheric Major Warming

A major stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) in January 2009 was the strongest and most prolonged on record. Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) observations are used to provide an overview of dynamics and transport during the 2009 SSW, and to compare with the intense, long-lasting SSW in January 2006. The Arctic polar vortex split during the 2009 SSW, whereas the 2006 SSW was a vortex displacement event. Winds reversed to easterly more rapidly and reverted to westerly more slowly in 2009 than in 2006. More mixing of trace gases out of the vortex during the decay of the vortex fragments, and less before the fulfillment of major SSW criteria, was seen in 2009 than in 2006; persistent well-defined fragments of vortex and anticyclone air were more prevalent in 2009. The 2009 SSW had a more profound impact on the lower stratosphere than any previously observed SSW, with no significant recovery of the vortex in that region. The stratopause breakdown and subsequent reformation at very high altitude, accompanied by enhanced descent into a rapidly strengthening upper stratospheric vortex, were similar in 2009 and 2006. Many differences between 2006 and 2009 appear to be related to the different character of the SSWs in the two years.

Manney, Gloria L.↗

On the Influence of Anthropogenic Forcings on Changes in the Stratospheric Mean Age

A common feature of stratospheric simulations of the past or future is an increase in tropical upwelling and a decrease in mean age. Possible causes or these changes include (1) increases in tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) driven by increases in well-mixed greenhouse gases (WMGHGs), (2) the direct radiative effect of increases in WMGHGs, and (3) changes in ozone. Here we examine a suite of simulations from the Goddard Earth Observing System chemistry-climate model (GEOS CCM) to isolate the relative role of these three factors. Our analysis indicates that all three factors cause changes in the mean age, but the relative impact of each factor depends on the time period analyzed. Over the past 30-40 years ozone depletion is the major factor causing the decrease in mean age, with negligible changes due to direct radiative impact of WMGHG's. However, ozone is predicted to recover back to 1970 levels during the next 50-60 years, and this causes an increase in the mean age, whereas the continued increase in SSTs from increased levels of WMGHGs and the direct radiative impact of WMGHGs will still cause a decrease in the mean age. The net impact of these factors will still result in a decreasing mean age although the rate will be smaller than that of the past. The decreases in mean age are primarily caused by increases in upwelling in the tropical lower stratosphere. The increased upwelling from both increased tropical SSTs and polar ozone loss appears to be related to changes in zonal winds and increases in wave activity propagating into the stratosphere. The different contributions of changes in SSTs, WMGHGs, and ozone to the circulation of the stratosphere may help explain the large spread in the rate of change of tropical upwelling seen in previous studies.

Oman, Luke↗

The Influence of the 2006 Indonesian Biomass Burning Aerosols on Tropical Dynamics Studied with the GEOS-5 AGCM

The direct and semi-direct effects of aerosols produced by Indonesian biomass burning (BB) during August November 2006 on tropical dynamics have been examined using NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System, Version 5 (GEOS-5) atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM). The AGCM includes CO, which is transported by resolved and sub-grid processes and subject to a linearized chemical loss rate. Simulations were driven by two sets of aerosol forcing fields calculated offline, one that included Indonesian BB aerosol emissions and one that did not. In order to separate the influence of the aerosols from internal model variability, the means of two ten-member ensembles were compared. Diabatic heating from BB aerosols increased temperatures over Indonesia between 150 and 400 hPa. The higher temperatures resulted in strong increases in upward grid-scale vertical motion, which increased water vapor and CO over Indonesia. In October, the largest increases in water vapor were found in the mid-troposphere (~25%) while the largest increases in CO occurred just below the tropopause (80 ppbv or ~50%). Diabatic heating from the Indonesian BB aerosols caused CO to increase by 9% throughout the tropical tropopause layer in November and 5% in the lower stratosphere in December. The results demonstrate that aerosol heating plays an important role in the transport of BB pollution and troposphere-to-stratosphere transport. Changes in vertical motion and cloudiness induced by aerosol heating can also alter the transport and phase of water vapor in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere.

Ott, Lesley↗

Five-Year (2004-2009)Observations of Upper Tropospheric Water Vapor and Cloud Ice from MLS and Comparisons with GEOS-5 Analyses

This paper gives an overview of August 2004 through July 2009 upper tropospheric (UT) water vapor (H2O) and ice water content (IWC) from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and comparisons with outputs from the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Version 5 (GEOS-5) data assimilation system. Both MLS and GEOS-5 show that high values of H2O and IWC at 215 to 147 hPa are associated with areas of deep convection. They exhibit good (within approximately 15%) agreement in IWC at these altitudes, but GEOS-5 H2O is approximately 50% (215 hPa) to approximately 30% (147 hPa) larger than MLS, possibility due to its higher temperatures at these altitudes. GOES-5 produces a weaker intertropical convergence zone than MLS, while a seasonally-migrating band of tropical deep convection is clearly evident in both the MLS and GEOS-5 UT H2O and IWC. MLS and GEOS-5 both show spatial anti-correlation between IWC and H2O at 100 hPa, where less H2O is associated with low temperatures in regions of tropical convection. At 100 hPa, GEOS-5 produces 50% less IWC and 15% less H2O in the tropics, and approximately 20% more H2O in the extra-tropics, than does MLS. Behavior of the 100 hPa H2O, which exhibits a quasi-biennial oscillation, appears consistent with it being controlled by temperature. The seasonal cycle in the vertical transport of tropical mean H2O from approximately 147 hPa to approximately 10 hPa appears much stronger in MLS than in GEOS-5. The UT IWC and H2O interannual variations, from both MLS and GEOS-5, show clear imprints of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation.

Jiang, Jonathan H.↗

The GEOS-Chemistry-Climate Model (CCM), Versions 1,2 and 3

This paper examines evolution of key ozone and climate aspects in our range of Goddard Earth Observing System Models, Versions 1-3. Version 1 (Pawson et al., 2008; )GR) used GSFC stratospheric ozone chemistry in GEOS-4 GCM. A chronic high bias in polar ozone at low chlorine loading persisted into Version 2, which used the GEQS-5 GCM and the same chemistry. This is much improved in Version 3, which uses the GMI-COMBO stratosphere-troposphere chemistry. A dynamical problem with Version 1, the overactive nature of the Antarctic polar vortex, is corrected in Versions 2 and 3, when GEQS-5 replaces GEO5-4. Other changes between the various model versions will be documented.

Pawson, Steven↗

Assimilating EOS-Aura OMI and MLS Data in GEOS-5

Data assimilation is a potentially powerful method of extracting the maximum amount of information from observed data by combining their information with models. in this application, we will use stratospheric ozone profiles retrieved from EOS MLS and total column amounts retrieved from OMI' along with the GEOS-5 GCM, that includes a representation of ozone chemistry and transport. The presentation will discuss how well we can derive tropospheric ozone column information in this system, including its sensitivity to model errors and some assumptions made in the assimilation system. We discuss also ozone structures in the tropopause region and their sensitivity to model resolution and other fact=ors. An important issue we examine is how much more information we obtain from ozone assimilation than from model studies using state of the art chemistry models - answering such questions helps determine how useful ozone assimilation really is, given our present capabilities in chemical modeling.

Pawson, Steven↗

Uncertain Representations of Sub-Grid Pollutant Transport in Chemistry-Transport Models and Impacts on Long-Range Transport and Global Composition

Sub-grid transport, by convection and turbulence, is known to play an important role in lofting pollutants from their source regions. Consequently, the long-range transport and climatology of simulated atmospheric composition are impacted. This study uses the Goddard Earth Observing System, Version 5 (GEOS-5) atmospheric model to study pollutant transport. The baseline model uses a Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert (RAS) scheme that represents convection through a sequence of linearly entraining cloud plumes characterized by unique detrainment levels. Thermodynamics, moisture and trace gases are transported in the same manner. Various approximate forms of trace-gas transport are implemented, in which the box-averaged cloud mass fluxes from RAS are used with different numerical approaches. Substantial impacts on forward-model simulations of CO (using a linearized chemistry) are evident. In particular, some aspects of simulations using a diffusive form of sub-grid transport bear more resemblance to space-biased CO observations than do the baseline simulations with RAS transport. Implications for transport in the real atmosphere will be discussed. Another issue of importance is that many adjoint/inversion computations use simplified representations of sub-grid transport that may be inconsistent with the forward models: implications will be discussed. Finally, simulations using a complex chemistry model in GEOS-5 (in place of the linearized CO model) are underway: noteworthy results from this simulation will be mentioned.

Pawson, Steven↗

Assimilation of Aura Ozone Data and Comparisons with In Situ Observations

Ozone data from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) onboard EOS Aura satellite were assimilated into the Goddard Earth Observing System Version 4 (GEOS-4) ozone assimilation system. Comparison of assimilated ozone with ozone sonde and MOZAIC data indicate an agreement within 10% in the lower stratosphere, where dynamical processes dominate. Assimilation of OMI and MLS data improves tropospheric column estimates in the Atlantic region, but leads to an overestimation in the tropical Pacific in comparison with SHADOZ sondes. Transport and data biases are considered in order to understand these discrepancies. Comparisons of assimilated tropospheric ozone columns with ozone sonde data reveal root-mean-square (RMS) differences of 2.9 to 7.2 DU, which are typically smaller than the model-sonde RMS differences. Four different definitions of the tropopause using temperature lapse rate, potential vorticity (PV) and isentropic surfaces or ozone isosurfaces are compared with respect to their global impact on the estimated tropospheric ozone column. The largest sensitivity in the tropospheric ozone column is found near the subtropical jet, where the ozone or PV determined tropopause typically lies below the lapse rate tropopause.

Stajner, Ivanka↗

Performance of Versions 1,2 and 3 of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Chemistry-Climate Model (CCM)

Version 1 of the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOS CCM) was used in the first CCMVa1 model evaluation and forms the basis for several studies of links between ozone and the circulation. That version of the CCM was based on the GEOS-4 GCM. Versions 2 and 3 of the GEOS CCM are based on the GEOS-5 GCM, which retains the "Lin-Rood" dynamical core but has a totally different set of physical parameterizatiOns to GEOS-4. In Version 2 of the GEOS CCM the Goddard stratospheric chemistry module is retained. Difference between Versions 1 and 2 thus reflect the physics changes of the underlying GCMs. Several comparisons between these two models are made, several of which reveal improvements in Version 2 (including a more realistic representation of the interannual variability of the Antarctic vortex). In Version 3 of the GEOS CCM, the stratospheric chemistry mechanism is replaced by the "GMI COMBO" code that includes tropospheric chemistry and different computational approaches. An advantage of this model version. is the reduction of high ozone biases that prevail at low chlorine loadings in Versions 1 and 2. This poster will compare and contrast various aspects of the three model versions that are relevant for understanding interactions between ozone and climate.

Pawson, Steven↗

The GEOS Chemistry Climate Model: Implications of Climate Feedbacks on Ozone Depletion and Recovery

The Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry Climate Model (GEOS CCM) has been developed by combining the atmospheric chemistry and transport modules developed over the years at Goddard and the GEOS general circulation model, also developed at Goddard. The first version of the model was used in the CCMVal intercomparison exercises that contributed to the 2006 WMO/UNEP Ozone Assessment. The second version incorporates the updated version of the GCM (GEOS 5) and will be used for the next round of CCMVal evaluations and the 2010 Ozone Assessment. The third version, now under development, incorporates the combined stratosphere and troposphere chemistry package developed under the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI). We will show comparison to past observations that indicate that we represent the ozone trends over the past 30 years. We will also show the basic temperature, composition, and dynamical structure of the simulations. We will further show projections into the future. We will show results from an ensemble of transient and time-slice simulations, including simulations with fixed 1960 chlorine, simulations with a best guess scenario (Al), and simulations with extremely high chlorine loadings. We will discuss planned extensions of the model to include emission-based boundary conditions for both anthropogenic and biogenic compounds.

Stolarski, Richard S.↗

The Evolution of the Stratopause during the 2006 Major Warming: Satellite Data and Assimilated Meteorological Analyses

Microwave Limb Sounder and Sounding of the Atmosphere with Broadband Emission Radiometry data provide the first opportunity to characterize the four-dimensional stratopause evolution throughout the life-cycle of a major stratospheric sudden warming (SSW). The polar stratopause, usually higher than that at midlatitudes, dropped by 30 km and warmed during development of a major "wave 1" SSW in January 2006, with accompanying mesospheric cooling. When the polar vortex broke down, the stratopause cooled and became ill-defined, with a nearly isothermal stratosphere. After the polar vortex started to recover in the upper stratosphere/lower mesosphere (USLM), a cool stratopause reformed above 75 km, then dropped and warmed; both the mesosphere above and the stratosphere below cooled at this time. The polar stratopause remained separated from that at midlatitudes across the core of the polar night jet. In the early stages of the SSW, the strongly tilted (westward with increasing altitude) polar vortex extended into the mesosphere, and enclosed a secondary temperature maximum extending westward and slightly equatorward from the highest altitude part of the polar stratopause over the cool stratopause near the vortex edge. The temperature evolution in the USLM resulted in strongly enhanced radiative cooling in the mesosphere during the recovery from the SSW, but significantly reduced radiative cooling in the upper stratosphere. Assimilated meteorological analyses from the European Centre for Medium-Range weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Goddard Earth Observing System Version 5.0.1 (GEOS-5), which are not constrained by data at polar stratopause altitudes and have model tops near 80 km, could not capture the secondary temperature maximum or the high stratopause after the SSW; they also misrepresent polar temperature structure during and after the stratopause breakdown, leading to large biases in their radiative heating rates. ECMWF analyses represent the stratospheric temperature structure more accurately, suggesting a better representation of vertical motion; GEOS-5 analyses more faithfully describe stratopause level wind and wave amplitudes. The high-quality satellite temperature data used here provide the first daily, global, multiannual data sets suitable for assessing and, eventually, improving representation of the USLM in models and assimilation systems.

Manney, Gloria L.↗