Engineering topics

Pawson, S.

Publications and source records attributed to Pawson, S..

At least 55 records · Page 3

NASA NTRS2010

Comparing Global Atmospheric CO2 Flux and Transport Models with Remote Sensing (and Other) Observations

We report recent progress derived from comparison of global CO2 flux and transport models with new remote sensing and other sources of CO2 data including those from satellite. The overall objective of this activity is to improve the process models that represent our understanding of the workings of the atmospheric carbon cycle. Model estimates of CO2 surface flux and atmospheric transport processes are required for initial constraints on inverse analyses, to connect atmospheric observations to the location of surface sources and sinks, to provide the basic framework for carbon data assimilation, and ultimately for future projections of carbon-climate interactions. Models can also be used to test consistency within and between CO2 data sets under varying geophysical states. Here we focus on simulated CO2 fluxes from terrestrial vegetation and atmospheric transport mutually constrained by analyzed meteorological fields from the Goddard Modeling and Assimilation Office for the period 2000 through 2009. Use of assimilated meteorological data enables direct model comparison to observations across a wide range of scales of variability. The biospheric fluxes are produced by the CASA model at 1x1 degrees on a monthly mean basis, modulated hourly with analyzed temperature and sunlight. Both physiological and biomass burning fluxes are derived using satellite observations of vegetation, burned area (as in GFED-3), and analyzed meteorology. For the purposes of comparison to CO2 data, fossil fuel and ocean fluxes are also included in the transport simulations. In this presentation we evaluate the model's ability to simulate CO2 flux and mixing ratio variability in comparison to remote sensing observations from TCCON, GOSAT, and AIRS as well as relevant in situ observations. Examples of the influence of key process representations are shown from both forward and inverse model comparisons. We find that the model can resolve much of the synoptic, seasonal, and interannual variability in the observations, although reasons for persistent discrepancies in northern hemisphere vegetation uptake are examined. At this time, we do not find any serious shortcomings in the model transport representation, but this is still the subject of close scrutiny. In general, the fidelity of these simulations leads us to anticipate incorporation of real-time, highly resolved remote sensing and other observations into quantitative analyses that will reduce uncertainty in CO2 fluxes and revolutionize our understanding of the key processes controlling atmospheric CO2 and its evolution with time.

Kawa, S. R.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Using Transport Diagnostics to Understand Chemistry Climate Model Ozone Simulations

We demonstrate how observations of N2O and mean age in the tropical and midlatitude lower stratosphere (LS) can be used to identify realistic transport in models. The results are applied to 15 Chemistry Climate Models (CCMs) participating in the 2010 WMO assessment. Comparison of the observed and simulated N2O/mean age relationship identifies models with fast or slow circulations and reveals details of model ascent and tropical isolation. The use of this process-oriented N2O/mean age diagnostic identifies models with compensating transport deficiencies that produce fortuitous agreement with mean age. We compare the diagnosed model transport behavior with a model's ability to produce realistic LS O3 profiles in the tropics and midlatitudes. Models with the greatest tropical transport problems show the poorest agreement with observations. Models with the most realistic LS transport agree more closely with LS observations and each other. We incorporate the results of the chemistry evaluations in the SPARC CCMVal Report (2010) to explain the range of CCM predictions for the return-to-1980 dates for global (60 S-60 N) and Antarctic column ozone. Later (earlier) Antarctic return dates are generally correlated to higher (lower) vortex Cl(sub y) levels in the LS, and vortex Cl(sub y) is generally correlated with the model's circulation although model Cl(sub y) chemistry or Cl(sub y) conservation can have a significant effect. In both regions, models that have good LS transport produce a smaller range of predictions for the return-to-1980 ozone values. This study suggests that the current range of predicted return dates is unnecessarily large due to identifiable model transport deficiencies.

Strahan, S. E.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Climatological Features of the Upper Troposphere and Stratosphere in the GEOS-5 "MERRA" Analyses (1979-2008)

The realism of various aspects of the upper troposphere and stratosphere in the "Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications" (MERRA) dataset will be examined. The MERRA reanalysis extends from 1979 until the present, using the Goddard Earth Observing System, Version 5 (GEOS-5) data assimilation system. The model and analysis have a half-degree spatial resolution with 72 layers that are constrained by observations between the Earth's surface and the stratopause. A comprehensive, time-evolving suite of meteorological observations (e.g., in-situ temperature, moisture, wind and pressure measurements and space-based infrared and microwave radiances) is assimilated. Results show realistic depiction of dominant features, such as the quasi-biennial oscillation, jet structures (including interannual variaficns) and tropopause characteristics, as validated using independent observations and system statistics. Challenges for such reanalyses include the stability to transitions in the observing system, such as the replacement of MSU/SSU by the AMSU-A data in the middle atmosphere. The paper will discuss the use of satellite radiances and examine impacts of satellite drifts and instrument changes on the analyses.

Pawson, S.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Representations of the Stratospheric Polar Vortices in Versions 1 and 2 of the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOS CCM)

This study will document the behavior of the polar vortices in two versions of the GEOS CCM. Both versions of the model include the same stratospheric chemistry, They differ in the underlying circulation model. Version 1 of the GEOS CCM is based on the Goddard Earth Observing System, Version 4, general circulation model which includes the finite-volume (Lin-Rood) dynamical core and physical parameterizations from Community Climate Model, Version 3. GEOS CCM Version 2 is based on the GEOS-5 GCM that includes a different tropospheric physics package. Baseline simulations of both models, performed at two-degree spatial resolution, show some improvements in Version 2, but also some degradation, In the Antarctic, both models show an over-persistent stratospheric polar vortex with late breakdown, but the year-to-year variations that are overestimated in Version I are more realistic in Version 2. The implications of this for the interactions with tropospheric climate, the Southern Annular Mode, will be discussed. In the Arctic both model versions show a dominant dynamically forced variabi;ity, but Version 2 has a persistent warm bias in the low stratosphere and there are seasonal differences in the simulations. These differences will be quantified in terms of climate change and ozone loss. Impacts of model resolution, using simulations at one-degree and half-degree, and changes in physical parameterizations (especially the gravity wave drag) will be discussed.

Pawson, S.↗

NASA NTRS2008

What Would Have Happened to the Ozone Layer if Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) had not been Regulated?

Ozone depletion by chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) was first proposed by Molina and Rowland in their 1974 Nature paper. Since that time, the sci entific connection between ozone losses and CFCs and other ozone depl eting substances (ODSs) has been firmly established with laboratory m easurements, atmospheric observations, and modeling research. This science research led to the implementation of international agreements t hat largely stopped the production of ODSs. In this study we use a fu lly-coupled radiation-chemical-dynamical model to simulate a future world where ODSs were never regulated and ODS production grew at an ann ual rate of 3%. In this "world avoided" simulation 1.7 % of the globa lly-average column ozone is destroyed by 2020, and 67% is destroyed b y 2065 in comparison to 1980. Large ozone depletions in the polar region become year-round rather than just seasonal as is currently observ ed in the Antarctic ozone hole. Very large temperature decreases are observed in response to circulation changes and decreased shortwave radiation absorption by ozone. Ozone levels in the tropical lower strat osphere remain constant until about 2053 and then collapse to near ze ro by 2058 as a result of heterogeneous chemical processes (as curren tly observed in the Antarctic ozone hole). The tropical cooling that triggers the ozone collapse is caused by an increase of the tropical upwelling. In response to ozone changes, ultraviolet radiation increa ses, more than doubling the erythemal radiation in the northern summer midlatitudes by 2060.

Newman, Paul A.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Detection and Attribution of the Recovery of Polar Ozone

The Antarctic ozone hole develops each year and culminates by early spring (late September - early October). The severity of the hole has been assessed from satellites using the minimum total ozone value from the October monthly mean (depth of the hole), calculating the average area coverage during this September-October period, and by estimating ozone mass deficit. Profile information shows that ozone is completely destroyed in the 14-2 1 km layer by early October. Ozone is mainly destroyed by halogen (chlorine and bromine) catalytic cycles, and these losses are modulated by temperature variations. Because atmospheric halogen levels are responding to international agreements that limit or phase out production, the amount of halogens in the stratosphere should decrease over the next few decades. Both models and projections of ozone depleting substances (ODSs) into the 21St century reveal that polar ozone levels should recover in the 2060- 2070 period. In this talk, we will review current projections of polar ozone recovery. Using models and ODs projections, we explore both the past, near future (2008-2025), and far future (> 2025) levels of polar ozone. Finally, we will discuss various factors that complicate recovery such as greenhouse gas changes (e.g., cooling in the upper stratosphere) and the acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation.

Newman, Paul A.↗

NASA NTRS2007

An Ozone Increase in the Antarctic Summer Stratosphere: A Dynamical Response to the Ozone Hole

Profiles of ozone concentration retrieved from the SBUV series of satellites show an increase between 1979 and 1997 in the summertime Antarctic middle stratosphere (approx. 25-10 hPa). Data over the South Pole from ozone sondes confirm the increase. A similar ozone increase is produced in a chemistry climate model that allows feedback between constituent changes and the stratospheric circulation through radiative heating. A simulation that excludes the radiative coupling between predicted ozone and the circulation does not capture this ozone increase. We show that the ozone increase in our model simulations is caused by a dynamical feedback in response to the changes in the stratospheric wind fields forced by the radiative perturbation associated with the Antarctic ozone hole.

Stolarski, R. S.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Validation of the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder Temperature and Geopotential Height Measurements

This paper describes the retrievals algorithm used to determine temperature and height from radiance measurements by the Microwave Limb Sounder on EOS Aura. MLS is a "limbscanning" instrument, meaning that it views the atmosphere along paths that do not intersect the surface - it actually looks forwards from the Aura satellite. This means that the temperature retrievals are for a "profile" of the atmosphere somewhat ahead of the satellite. Because of the need to view a finite sample of the atmosphere, the sample spans a box about 1.5km deep and several tens of kilometers in width; the optical characteristics of the atmosphere mean that the sample is representative of a tube about 200-300km long in the direction of view. The retrievals use temperature analyses from NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System, Version 5 (GEOS-5) data assimilation system as a priori states. The temperature retrievals are somewhat deperrde~zt on these a priori states, especially in the lower stratosphere. An important part of the validation of any new dataset involves comparison with other, independent datasets. A large part of this study is concerned with such comparisons, using a number of independent space-based measurements obtained using different techniques, and with meteorological analyses. The MLS temperature data are shown to have biases that vary with height, but also depend on the validation dataset. MLS data are apparently biased slightly cold relative to correlative data in the upper troposphere and slightly warm in the middle stratosphere. A warm MLS bias in the upper stratosphere may be due to a cold bias in GEOS-5 temperatures.

Schwartz, M. J.↗

NASA NTRS2006

A Test of Sensitivity to Convective Transport in a Global Atmospheric CO2 Simulation

Two approximations to convective transport have been implemented in an offline chemistry transport model (CTM) to explore the impact on calculated atmospheric CO2 distributions. GlobalCO2 in the year 2000 is simulated using theCTM driven by assimilated meteorological fields from the NASA s Goddard Earth Observation System Data Assimilation System, Version 4 (GEOS-4). The model simulates atmospheric CO2 by adopting the same CO2 emission inventory and dynamical modules as described in Kawa et al. (convective transport scheme denoted as Conv1). Conv1 approximates the convective transport by using the bulk convective mass fluxes to redistribute trace gases. The alternate approximation, Conv2, partitions fluxes into updraft and downdraft, as well as into entrainment and detrainment, and has potential to yield a more realistic simulation of vertical redistribution through deep convection. Replacing Conv1 by Conv2 results in an overestimate of CO2 over biospheric sink regions. The largest discrepancies result in a CO2 difference of about 7.8 ppm in the July NH boreal forest, which is about 30% of the CO2 seasonality for that area. These differences are compared to those produced by emission scenario variations constrained by the framework of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to account for possible land use change and residual terrestrial CO2 sink. It is shown that the overestimated CO2 driven by Conv2 can be offset by introducing these supplemental emissions.

Bian, H.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Tropospheric Ozone from Assimilation of Aura Data using Different Definitions of the Tropopause

Ozone data from Aura OMI and MLS instruments were assimilated into the general circulation model (GCM) constrained by assimilated meteorological fields from the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office at NASA Goddard. Properties of tropospheric ozone and their sensitivity to the definition of the tropopause are investigated. Three definitions of the tropopause are considered: (1) dynamical (using potential vorticity and potential temperature), (2) using temperature lapse rate, and (3) using a fixed ozone value. Comparisons of the tropospheric ozone columns using these tropopause definitions will be presented and evaluated against coincident profiles from ozone sondes. Assimilated ozone profiles are used to identify possible tropopause folding events, which are important for stratosphere-troposphere exchange. Each profile is searched for multiple levels at which ozone attains the value typical of the troposphere-stratosphere transition in order to identify possible tropopause folds. Constrained by the dynamics from a global model and by assimilation of Aura ozone data every 3-hours, this data set provides an opportunity to study ozone evolution in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere with high temporal resolution.

Stajner, Ivanka↗

NASA NTRS2006

Relative Contribution of Greenhouse Gases and Ozone Change to Temperature Trends in the Stratosphere: A Chemistry/Climate Model Study

Long-term changes in greenhouse gases, primarily carbon dioxide, are expected to lead to a warming of the troposphere and a cooling of the stratosphere. We examine the cooling of the stratosphere and compare the contributions greenhouse gases and ozone change for the decades between 1980 and 2000. We use 150 years of simulation done with our coupled chemistry/climate model (GEOS 4 GCM with GSFC CTM chemistry) to calculate temperatures and constituents fiom,1950 through 2100. The contributions of greenhouse gases and ozone to temperature change are separated by a time-series analysis using a linear trend term throughout the period to represent the effects of greenhouse gases and an equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC) term to represent the effects of ozone change. The temperature changes over the 150 years of the simulation are dominated by the changes in greenhouse gases. Over the relatively short period (approx. 20 years) of ozone decline between 1980 and 2000 changes in ozone are competitive with changes in greenhouse gases. The changes in temperature induced by the ozone change are comparable to, but smaller than, those of greenhouse gases in the upper stratosphere (1-3 hPa) at mid latitudes. The ozone term dominates the temperature change near both poles with a negative temperature change below about 3-5 hPa and a positive change above. At mid latitudes in the upper stratosphere and mesosphere (above about 1 hPa) and in the middle stratosphere (3 to 70 ma), the greenhouse has term dominates. From about 70 hPa down to the tropopause at mid latitudes, cooling due to ozone changes is the largest influence on temperature. Over the 150 years of the simulation, the change in greenhouse gases is the most important contributor to temperature change. Ozone caused a perturbation that is expected to reverse over the coming decades. We show a model simulation of the expected temperature change over the next two decades (2006-2026). The simulation shows a crossover between lower atmospheric heating and upper atmospheric cooling that is located at about 90 hPa in the tropics and 30-40 hPa in the polar regions. This results from the combination of continuing increases in greehouse gases and recovery from ozone depletion.

Stolarski, Richard S.↗

NASA NTRS2005

EOS Microwave Limb Sounder observations of the Antarctic polar vortex breakup in 2004

New observations from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on NASA’s Aura satellite give a detailed picture of the spring Antarctic polar vortex breakup throughout the stratosphere, with the first daily global HCl profiles providing an unprecedentedly clear view of transport in the lower stratosphere. Poleward transport at progressively lower levels, filamentation, and mixing are detailed in MLS HCl, N2O, H2O, and O3 as the 2004 Antarctic vortex broke up from the top down in early October through late December. Improved MLS H2O data show the subvortex, below the tropical tropopause, breaking up almost simultaneously with the lower stratospheric vortex in December. Vortex remnants persisted in MLS tracers for over a month after the breakup in the midstratosphere, but no more than a week in the lower stratosphere. MLS observations show diabatic descent continuing throughout November, but weak ascent after late October in the lower stratospheric vortex core. Our results extend previous observational transport studies and show consistency with mixing and vortex evolution in meteorological analyses, and with model studies

Pawson, S.↗

NASA NTRS2005

EOS Microwave Limb Sounder Observations of the Antarctic Polar Vortex Breakup in 2004

Observations from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on NASA's new Aura satellite give an unprecedentedly detailed picture of the spring Antarctic polar vortex breakup throughout the stratosphere. HCl is a particularly valuable tracer in the lower stratosphere after chlorine deactivation. MLS HCl, N2O, H2O broke up in the upper stratosphere by early October, in the midstratosphere by early November, and in the lower stratosphere by late December. The subvortex broke up just a few days later than the lower stratospheric vortex. Vortex remnants persisted in the midstratosphere through December, but only through early January 2005 in the lower stratosphere. MLS N2O observations show diabatic descent continuing throughout November, with evidence of weak ascent after late October in the lower stratospheric vortex core.

Manney, G. L.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Assimilation of MLS and OMI Ozone Data

Ozone data from Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) were assimilated into the ozone model at NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO). This assimilation produces ozone fields that are superior to those from the operational GMAO assimilation of Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV/2) instrument data. Assimilation of Aura data improves the representation of the "ozone hole" and the agreement with independent Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) III and ozone sonde data. Ozone in the lower stratosphere is captured better: mean state, vertical gradients, spatial and temporal variability are all improved. Inclusion of OMI and MLS data together, or separately, in the assimilation system provides a way of checking how consistent OMI and MLS data are with each other, and with the ozone model. We found that differences between OMI total ozone column data and model forecasts decrease after MLS data are assimilated. This indicates that MLS stratospheric ozone profiles are consistent with OMI total ozone columns. The evaluation of error characteristics of OMI and MLS ozone will continue as data from newer versions of retrievals becomes available. We report on the initial step in obtaining global assimilated ozone fields that combine measurements from different Aura instruments, the ozone model at the GMAO, and their respective error characteristics. We plan to use assimilated ozone fields in estimation of tropospheric ozone. We also plan to investigate impacts of assimilated ozone fields on numerical weather prediction through their use in radiative models and in the assimilation of infrared nadir radiance data from NASA's Advanced Infrared Sounder (AIRS).

Stajner, I.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Modeling Atmospheric CO2 Processes to Constrain the Missing Sink

We report on a NASA supported modeling effort to reduce uncertainty in carbon cycle processes that create the so-called missing sink of atmospheric CO2. Our overall objective is to improve characterization of CO2 source/sink processes globally with improved formulations for atmospheric transport, terrestrial uptake and release, biomass and fossil fuel burning, and observational data analysis. The motivation for this study follows from the perspective that progress in determining CO2 sources and sinks beyond the current state of the art will rely on utilization of more extensive and intensive CO2 and related observations including those from satellite remote sensing. The major components of this effort are: 1) Continued development of the chemistry and transport model using analyzed meteorological fields from the Goddard Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, with comparison to real time data in both forward and inverse modes; 2) An advanced biosphere model, constrained by remote sensing data, coupled to the global transport model to produce distributions of CO2 fluxes and concentrations that are consistent with actual meteorological variability; 3) Improved remote sensing estimates for biomass burning emission fluxes to better characterize interannual variability in the atmospheric CO2 budget and to better constrain the land use change source; 4) Evaluating the impact of temporally resolved fossil fuel emission distributions on atmospheric CO2 gradients and variability. 5) Testing the impact of existing and planned remote sensing data sources (e.g., AIRS, MODIS, OCO) on inference of CO2 sources and sinks, and use the model to help establish measurement requirements for future remote sensing instruments. The results will help to prepare for the use of OCO and other satellite data in a multi-disciplinary carbon data assimilation system for analysis and prediction of carbon cycle changes and carbodclimate interactions.

Kawa, S. R.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Can Assimilation of Satellite Ozone Data Contribute to the Understanding of the Lower Stratospheric Ozone?

We study the quality of lower stratospheric ozone fields from a three- dimensional global ozone assimilation system. Ozone in this region is important for the forcing of climate, but its global distribution is not fully known because of its large temporal and vertical variability. Modeled fields often have biases due to the inaccurate representation of transport processes in this region with strong gradients. Accurate ozonesonde or satellite occultation measurements have very limited coverage. Nadir measurements, such as those from the Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet/2 (SBUV/2) instrument that provide wide latitudinal coverage, lack the vertical resolution needed to represent sharp vertical features. Limb measurements, such as those from the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS), provide a finer vertical resolution. We show that assimilation of MIPAS data in addition to SBUV/2 data leads to better estimates of ozone in comparison with independent high quality satellite, aircraft, and ozone sonde measurements. Other modifications to the statistical analysis that have an impact on the lower stratospheric ozone will be mentioned: error covariance modeling and data selection. Direct and indirect impacts of transport and chemistry models will be discussed. Implications for multi-year analyses and short-tern prediction will be addressed.

Stajner, I.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Sensitivity of the FVGCM to Changes in Ozone

We have carried out an experiment with the finite volume general circulation model (FVGCM). This experiment consisted of two different imposed changes in the climatological ozone fields assumed in the radiation code. for conditions with no significant ozone hole. This distribution was obtained from a 50-year simulation of the full stratospheric ozone chemistry, with a time-dependent chlorine loading, done with our off-line chemical transport model (CTM). Three years (1978-1980) of this simulation were averaged to form a monthly, zonal-mean ozone distribution that was used in the 20-year integration of the FVGCM for "unperturbed" conditions. The second 20-year GCM integration included a fully-developed ozone hole. This ozone distribution was from three years, 1998-2000, from the same CTM simulation. The goal of this work is to determine the coupled response of the chemistry and dynamics of the stratosphere. These experiments are the first step in understanding the coupled response. An important initial question concerns the significance of the signals: if 20-year integrations turn out to be too short, the runs will be extended.

Stolarski↗

NASA NTRS2003

High-Frequency Planetary Waves in the Polar Middle Atmosphere as seen in a data Assimilation System

This study examines the winter southern hemisphere vortex of 1998 using four times daily output from a data assimilation system to focus on the polar 2-day, wave number 2 component of the 4-day wave. The data assimilation system products are from a test version of the finite volume data assimilation system (fvDAS) being developed at Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) and include an ozone assimilation system. Results show that the polar 2-day wave dominates during July 1998 at 70 degrees. The period of the quasi 2-day wave is somewhat shorter than 2 days (about 1.7 days) during July 1998 with an average perturbation temperature amplitude for the month of over 2.5 K. The 2-day wave propagates more slowly than the zonal mean zonal wind, consistent with Rossby wave theory, and has EP flux divergence regions associated with regions of negative horizontal potential vorticity gradients, as expected from linear instability theory. Results for the assimilation-produced ozone mixing ratio show that the 2-day wave represents a major source of ozone variation in this region. The ozone wave in the assimilation system is in good agreement with the wave seen in the POAM (Polar Ozone and Aerosol Measurement) ozone observations for the same time period. Some differences with linear instability theory are noted as well as spectral peaks in the ozone field, not seen in the temperature field, that may be a consequence of advection.

Coy, L.↗