Navigation Sensor Technology Assessment Capability for Data-Driven Systems Analysis
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Esther Lee↗
Engineering topics
Paul D Friz
Publications and source records attributed to Paul D Friz.
The Space Superhighway: Systems Analysis of an In-Space Logistics Delivery Network
The number of assets in cislunar space is anticipated to dramatically increase in the coming decades. Many of these newer spacecraft are being designed to take advantage of capabilities currently in development like In-Space Servicing Assembly and Manufacturing (ISAM). Additionally, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) intends to develop and maintain a human-lunar presence that will then serve as a steppingstone for human missions to Mars. With continued growth in space operations, the combined demand for payload and propellant delivery in cislunar space could exceed 1,000 t annually in the next decade. The Space Superhighway principally consists of a logistics network and is intended to both use and proliferate ISAM in order to meet projected payload demands. Several architecture and vehicle-level trade studies are explored in order to better understand what in-space logistics networks may be feasible. The network consists of commercial launch vehicles, resupply tankers, orbital depots, and in-space tugs. This work specifically analyzes high-level trades such as: launch and in-space vehicle propulsion systems, vehicle size, staging orbit, level of vehicle reuse, reuse method, and propellant management strategy. Each of the trades are analyzed across several destination orbits such as Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) and Near-Rectilinear Halo Orbit (NRHO). Several payload types are also considered such as storable and cryogenic chemical propellants, electric propellants, crew logistics, spares, smallsats, and satellite piece parts.
Daniel J Tiffin↗
Parametric Cost Estimates of Four 20 Ton Payload Mars EDL Vehicle Concepts
Cost is one of the biggest obstacles to sending humans to Mars. Many studies have examined various vehicles and/or technologies which could be used to send humans to Mars. However, nearly all of these studies have either ignored cost or have used the mass of the vehicles as a surrogate for cost. This work presents parametric cost estimates of four Mars Entry, Descent, and Landing vehicle concepts capable of landing 20 tons of payload on the surface of Mars. The concepts are the Co-Optimization Blunt-body Re-entry Analysis-Mid lift to drag ratio Rigid Vehicle (Cobra–MRV), Adaptive Deployable Entry and Placement Technology (ADEPT), Hypersonic Inflatable Aerodynamic Decelerator (HIAD), and Capsule concepts. Two variants of the HIAD concept are studied, one with a single HIAD heatshield and one with two HIADs. The study presents the development and production cost of each vehicle and the total cost to build five flight units and fifteen flight units. Five flight units is representative of a single mission, or a "Flags and Footprints" style campaign, whereas fifteen flight units is representative of multiple missions going to multiple sites on Mars. All costs presented in this work are normalized to the average of the first unit production cost of the lander concepts. There is a large amount of uncertainty both in the design of the vehicles and the cost of the vehicles and it is impossible to claim with certainty which vehicle will cost the least. However, it is likely that the total cost to produce five flight units will be in the following ranking from least costly to most costly, Single HIAD, Capsule, Dual HIAD, Cobra, ADEPT. The ranking for fifteen units is similar but with the positions of the Dual HIAD and Cobra reversed. This study only considers the cost of the entry vehicle and does not take into account the effect of the entry vehicle’s mass on the cost of the in-space propulsion stage or launch vehicle.
Paul D Friz↗
Blind Validation Study of Parametric Cost Estimation Tool SEER-H for NASA Space Missions
One of the primary parametric cost modeling tools used by NASA and the aerospace industry to estimate the development and production cost of future spacecraft hardware is SEER-H by Galorath. To date, no independent validation of this tool for cost estimation of space missions has been reported in the literature. In the present validation study, cost estimators used SEER-H to estimate the cost of twelve different past NASA science missions. The estimators were prevented from knowing the actual cost of the missions in an effort to minimize cognitive biases. The point estimates of SEER-H had an average error of 23%, median error of -0.3%, and a standard deviation of 43%. Nine of the twelve mission's actual costs fell within the 80% confidence interval of SEER's probabilistic estimates. Several factors independent of SEER that may have affected the accuracy of the results have been identified and are discussed; these include: uncertainty in the technical data used for the estimates, the methods used to estimate uncertainty in spacecraft component mass and numbers of prototypes, and the experience of the estimators.
SEER-H↗
Blind Study Validating Parametric Costing Tools PRICE TruePlanning and SEER-H for NASA Science Missions
Two of the primary parametric costing tools used to estimate the development and production cost of future spacecraft hardware are PRICE TruePlanning - Space Missions Catalog by PRICE Systems, and SEER-H by Galorath. These are standard tools used by NASA and industry to estimate the cost of new aerospace hardware. However, no independent verification of the accuracy of these tools is publicly available. Both PRICE Systems and Galorath have completed internal validation studies of their parametric cost estimating tools; however, they only provided the results of the studies and did not detail the exact methods used to perform the validation. In the present study, cost estimators used PRICE TruePlanning and SEER-H to estimate the cost of twelve different past NASA science missions. The estimators were prevented from knowing the actual cost of the missions in an effort to minimize cognitive biases. In the present study, SEER had an average error of 23%, median error of -0.3%, with a standard deviation of 43%. PRICE had an average error of 52%, median error of 50%, and standard deviation of 45%. There were several factors independent of PRICE and SEER which may have affected the accuracy of the results in the present study including: uncertainty in the technical data used for the estimates, the methods used to estimate uncertainty in spacecraft component mass and numbers of prototypes, and the experience of the estimators.
Paul D Friz↗
A Cost Modeling Approach for Entry Systems Analysis of Human Mars Missions
Cost is one of the biggest obstacles to sending humans to Mars. However, spacecraft costs are typically not estimated until after the preliminary vehicle and mission concepts have been designed. By automating the cost estimation process, the effect of any change in vehicle or mission design on the mission cost can be determined more efficiently. This paper describes an extension to the tool Systems Analysis for Planetary Entry, Descent, and Landing which integrates the cost modeling software System Estimation and Evaluation of Resources-Hardware with a number of systems analysis tools. This new method is used to analyze several trade spaces of an entry vehicle for human Mars missions utilizing a Hypersonic Inflatable Aerodynamic Decelerator and provide preliminary results. Key findings include quantifying how ballistic coefficient, main engine specific impulse, and thrust to weight ratio affect the cost of the vehicle and how the payload per lander and number of landers affects the cost of a campaign to Mars.
Paul D Friz↗
Parametric Cost Analysis of Refueling Options in Cis-Lunar Space
Over the next several years NASA intends to develop and maintain a sustained human presence in cis-lunar space and on the surface of the moon. The sustained lunar presence will then serve as a stepping stone to human Mars missions. To propel the spacecraft taking humans and cargo to and from the lunar surface and to and from Mars will require on the order of hundreds of tons of propellant. Expendable, one-time use refueling elements maybe more cost effective for smaller campaigns, but as the propellant requirement grows, so does the cost benefit of reusable systems. This paper will analyze the cost of several different architectures for delivering propellant to cislunar space to determine the conditions in which each architecture is likely to be more cost effective. The first architecture relies on expendable elements for propellant delivery while the second one reuses every element including launch vehicle stages. In addition to these two basic approaches, trades will analyze alterations to the architectures such as mission design, level of thermal control, and the incorporation of buses,tugs, and depots, each with different propellants, sizes, and reusability assumptions.
Paul D Friz↗
Parametric Cost Modeling of a Mid-Lift-to-Drag Ratio Vehicle for Human Mars Entry, Descent, and Landing
Cost is one of the biggest obstacles to sending humans to Mars. However, spacecraft costs are typically estimated after the preliminary vehicle and mission concepts have been designed. By automating the cost estimation process, the effect of any change in vehicle or mission design on the mission cost can be determined more rapidly. This paper uses the tool SAPE-C (Systems Analysis for Planetary Entry, Descent, and Landing-Cost). SAPE-C integrates the cost modeling software SEER-H (System Estimation and Evaluation of Resources-Hardware) with a number of systems analysis tools and enables large design tradespace exploration early in the design process. SAPE-C is used to analyze several tradespaces of the Mid-Lift-to-Drag ratio rigid entry vehicle for human Mars missions. Key findings include quantifying the impacts of payload, vehicle length, and main engine specific impulse on the overall cost of the vehicle, and how the payload per lander and number of landers affects the cost of a campaign to Mars.
Paul D Friz↗
Parametric Cost Modeling of a Mid-Lift-to-Drag Ratio Vehicle for Human Mars Entry, Descent, and Landing
Cost is one of the biggest obstacles to sending humans to Mars. However, spacecraft costs are typically estimated after the preliminary vehicle and mission concepts have been designed. By automating the cost estimation process, the effect of any change in vehicle or mission design on the mission cost can be determined more rapidly. This paper uses the tool SAPE-C (Systems Analysis for Planetary Entry, Descent, and Landing-Cost). SAPE-C integrates the cost modeling software SEER-H (System Estimation and Evaluation of Resources-Hardware) with a number of systems analysis tools and enables large design tradespace exploration early in the design process. SAPE-C is used to analyze several tradespaces of the Mid-Lift-to-Drag ratio rigid entry vehicle for human Mars missions. Key findings include quantifying the impacts of payload, vehicle length, and main engine specific impulse on the overall cost of the vehicle, and how the payload per lander and number of landers affects the cost of a campaign to Mars.
Paul D Friz↗
Parametric Cost Analysis of Refueling Options in Cislunar Space
Over the next several years NASA intends to develop and maintain a sustained human presence in cislunar space and on the surface of the Moon. The sustained lunar presence will then serve as a steppingstone for human missions to Mars. To propel the spacecraft taking humans and cargo to and from the lunar surface and to and from Mars will require on the order of hundreds of tons of propellant. Single-use refueling elements (expendable tankers) may be more cost-effective for smaller campaigns, but as the propellant demand grows, so does the potential for a cost benefit from reusable tankers. The cost of two different architectures for delivering propellant to cislunar space was estimated and compared. The first architecture relies on expendable tankers for propellant delivery while the second architecture reuses every element, including launch vehicle stages. The study determined that if the cost of reusing refueling tankers is consistent with the current state of the art, the expendable refueling architecture is more cost effective. However, refinements of the methods used to estimate launch and tanker reuse costs are needed to provide more precise estimates of the breakeven point.
Daniel J Tiffin↗
ASCEND: The Space Superhighway: Systems Analysis of an In-Space Delivery Network
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Daniel J Tiffin↗