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Paul A. Newman

Publications and source records attributed to Paul A. Newman.

At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2024

Simulating the Volcanic Sulfate Aerosols From the 1991 Eruption of Cerro Hudson and Their Impact on the 1991 Ozone Hole

The Chilean volcano Cerro Hudson erupted between August 8th and 15th, 1991, injecting between 1.7 and 2.9 Tg of SO2 into the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. We simulate this injection using the GEOS Earth system model with detailed sulfur chemistry and sectional aerosol microphysics, focusing on the resulting aerosols and their contribution to the 1991 Antarctic Austral Springtime ozone hole. The simulations show a column ozone deficit (12 DU) in the Southern Hemisphere vortex collar region. The majority of this effect is between 10 and 20 km and due to heterogeneous chemistry. The model shows a 26% decrease in ozone from background levels at these altitudes, compared with in-situ observations of a 50% decrease. Above 20 km, the dynamical response to the eruption also causes lower ozone values, a novel modeling result. This experiment highlights potential interactions between proposed solar radiation management geoengineering aerosols and volcanic eruptions.

aerosols↗
NASA NTRS2024

Stratospheric Temperature and Ozone Impacts of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai Water Vapor Injection

The January 2022 eruption of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai underwater volcano injected a large amount of water vapor into the mid-stratosphere. This study uses model simulations to investigate the resulting stratospheric impacts out to 2031. Maximum radiatively-driven model temperature changes occur in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) subtropics in April–May 2022, with warming of ∼1 K in the lower stratosphere and cooling of 3 K in the mid-stratosphere. The radiative cooling combined with adiabatic cooling driven by the quasi-biennial oscillation meridional circulation explains the near-record cold anomaly observed in the SH subtropical mid-stratosphere. Projected ozone responses maximize in 2023–2024 as the water vapor plume is transported globally throughout the stratosphere and mesosphere. The excess H2O increases the OH radical, causing a negative global ozone response (2%–10%) in the upper stratosphere and mesosphere due to increased odd hydrogen-ozone loss, and a small positive ozone response (0.5%–1%) in the mid-stratosphere due to interference of the NOx catalytic loss cycle by the additional OH. In the lower stratosphere, the excess H2O is projected to increase polar stratospheric clouds and springtime halogen-ozone loss, enhancing the Antarctic ozone hole by 25–30 DU in 2023. Arctic impact is small, with maximum additional ozone loss of 4–5 DU projected in spring 2024. These responses diminish after 2024 to be quite small by 2031, as the excess H2O is removed from the stratosphere with a 2.5-year e-folding time. Given the year-to-year variability of the stratosphere, the magnitudes of these ozone responses may be below the threshold of detectability in observations.

stratosphere↗
NASA NTRS2023

Impacts of Stratospheric Ozone Recovery on Southern Ocean Temperature and Heat Budget

The impacts of stratospheric ozone recovery on Southern Ocean surface and interior temperature, heat content, heat uptake, and heat transport are investigated by contrasting two ensemble chemistry-climate model simulations in 2005–2099: one with fixed ozone depleting substances (ODSs) and another with decreasing ODSs. In our simulations ozone recovery significantly affects Southern Ocean temperature, with large latitudinal and vertical variations. Ozone recovery causes a dipole change of the full-depth ocean heat content (OHC) with an increase south of 60°S and a decrease between 45°S and 60°S. Integrated over latitudes south of 40°S, OHC decreases in response to ozone recovery. This ocean heat loss is shown to be driven by weakened poleward ocean heat transport (OHT) across 40°S, which is partly canceled by enhanced heat uptake. The weakening of poleward OHT into the Southern Ocean is caused by the ozone-induced equatorward shift of the meridional overturning circulation.

stratospheric ozone↗
NASA NTRS2022

A Multimodel Investigation of Asian Summer Monsoon UTLS Transport Over the Western Pacific

The Asian summer monsoon (ASM) as a chemical transport system is investigated using a suite of models in preparation for an airborne field campaign over the Western Pacific. Results show that the dynamical process of anticyclone eddy shedding in the upper troposphere rapidly transports convectively uplifted Asian boundary layer air masses to the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere over the Western Pacific. The models show that the transported air masses contain significantly enhanced aerosol loading and a complex chemical mixture of trace gases that are relevant to ozone chemistry. The chemical forecast models consistently predict the occurrence of the shedding events, but the predicted concentrations of transported trace gases and aerosols often differ between models. The airborne measurements to be obtained in the field campaign are expected to help reduce the model uncertainties. Furthermore, the large-scale seasonal chemical structure of the monsoon system is obtained from modeled carbon monoxide, a tracer of the convective transport of pollutants, which provides a new perspective of the ASM circulation, complementing the dynamical characterization of the monsoon.

Laura L. Pan↗
NASA NTRS2022

Prescribing Stratospheric Chemistry Overestimates Southern Hemisphere Climate Change During Austral Spring in Response to Quadrupled CO2

The interaction of stratospheric chemistry with a changing climate from an abrupt CO2 quadrupling is assessed using the coupled atmosphere–ocean Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOSCCM). Two abrupt 4 × CO2 experiments were performed, one with interactive stratospheric chemistry and the other with a prescribed stratospheric chemistry that does not simulate stratospheric ozone response to 4 × CO2. The interactive and prescribed chemistry experiments simulate similar global mean surface temperature change. Nevertheless, interactive chemistry is critical to capture the Southern Hemisphere tropospheric midlatitude jet response to 4 × CO2. When stratospheric ozone response to 4 × CO2 is neglected, GEOSCCM overestimates Southern Hemisphere tropospheric circulation change. This stratospheric chemistry-induced climate impact has large seasonal variability. During the austral spring season September–October–November (SON), prescribed chemistry yields a stronger poleward shift and intensification of the Southern Hemisphere midlatitude tropospheric jet, surface wind stress, and the Southern Ocean meridional overturning circulation than occurs with interactive chemistry. In other seasons interactive and prescribed chemistry have similar effects on the Southern Hemisphere circulation. The seasonality of stratospheric chemistry-induced climate impact is related to the seasonality of Antarctic lower stratospheric ozone response to 4 × CO2. In contrast to this stratospheric ozone response to 4 × CO2, stratospheric ozone recovery from decline of the ozone depleting substances has its largest impact on the Southern Hemisphere tropospheric circulation in austral summer (December–January–February), but no effects in SON. It is found that the different seasonality for these two stratospheric ozone layer change scenarios is related to the different seasonality of tropopause meridional temperature gradient response.

Stratospheric ozone feedback↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Antarctic Stratospheric Warming and its Impacts in 2019

We explore the mechanism, predictability and hemispheric-wide surface impacts of a rare stratospheric warming that occurred above Antarctica during austral spring (September to November) 2019, using the Japanese 55-year reanalysis set for the period 1979-2019. From late August to mid-September, the stratospheric polar vortex suddenly weakened, and the stratospheric temperatures dramatically rose over the Antarctic polar cap. The deceleration of the vortex observed at 10 hPa was as drastic as that of the first ever observed major sudden stratospheric warming in the SH during 2002, while the mean warming in the mid-stratosphere (~30hPa) over the course of spring 2019 broke the previous record of 2002 by ~50%. The key mechanism for this event was a poleward shift of the polar night jet near the stratopause during mid-winter and subsequent record strong planetary wavenumber-one activity propagating from the troposphere in August, which acted to dramatically weaken the polar vortex. The easterly wind anomalies and positive temperature anomalies moved downward to the surface during October to December, causing the index polarity of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) to become record-negative for the season. The record negative SAM played a key role in inducing significant local climate extremes over eastern Australia, southern New Zealand, eastern South America and western Patagonia. Especially, the strong negative SAM was the key driver of the extreme hot and dry conditions over subtropical eastern Australia in late spring 2019 that, in turn, were conducive for the severe wildfires that occurred during that time. State-of-the-art dynamical sub-seasonal to seasonal forecast systems skilfully predicted the upward propagating wavenumber-one activity in August, the significant vortex weakening of austral spring 2019, and subsequent development of negative SAM from late July.

Eun-Pa Lim↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Disruption of the 2022-2023 stratospheric circulation by the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcano

In January 2022 the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai (HTHH) volcano erupted, injecting an unprecedented amount of water vapor into the stratosphere that increased the total stratospheric water burden by ~10%. As the initial plume of water vapor spread throughout the stratosphere, radiative heating and cooling anomalies affected the stratospheric circulation altering the climatological mean residual circulation. Here we compare the 1980-2021 MERRA-2 (Modern Era Reanalysis for Research and Applications, Version 2) mean residual circulation climatology to the years 2022-2023 to identify stratospheric circulation changes associated with the anomalous water vapor. The HTHH water vapor is explicitly tracked using the M2-SCREAM (MERRA-2 Stratospheric Composition Reanalysis of Aura Microwave Limb Sounder) water vapor analysis. Anomalies in temperature, jet location, polar vortex strength and ozone advection in response to the HTHH water vapor anomaly are also documented. These results reveal details of the evolution of the HTHH induced stratospheric circulation anomalies with special emphasis on how these circulation anomalies affected the 2023 ozone hole.

Lawrence Coy↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Disruption of the 2022-2023 Stratospheric Circulation By the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai Volcano

In January 2022 the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai (HTHH) volcano erupted, injecting an unprecedented amount of water vapor into the stratosphere that increased the total stratospheric water burden by ~10%. As the initial plume of water vapor spread throughout the stratosphere, radiative heating and cooling anomalies affected the stratospheric circulation altering the climatological mean residual circulation. Here we compare the 1980-2021 MERRA-2 (Modern Era Reanalysis for Research and Applications, Version 2) mean residual circulation climatology to the years 2022-2023 to identify stratospheric circulation changes associated with the anomalous water vapor. The HTHH water vapor is explicitly tracked using the M2-SCREAM (MERRA-2 Stratospheric Composition Reanalysis of Aura Microwave Limb Sounder) water vapor analysis. Anomalies in temperature, jet location, polar vortex strength and ozone advection in response to the HTHH water vapor anomaly are also documented. These results reveal details of the evolution of the HTHH induced stratospheric circulation anomalies with special emphasis on how these circulation anomalies affected the 2023 ozone hole.

Lawrence Coy↗