Basin-informed flood frequency analysis using deep learning exhibits consistent projected regional patterns over CONUS
Not Available
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Engineering topics
Pallotta, Giuliana
Publications and source records attributed to Pallotta, Giuliana.
Higher-order internal modes of variability imprinted in year-to-year California streamflow changes
Not Available
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Robust Anthropogenic Signal Identified in the Seasonal Cycle of Tropospheric Temperature
Previous work identified an anthropogenic fingerprint pattern in T AC (x, t), the amplitude of the seasonal cycle of mid- to upper-tropospheric temperature (TMT), but did not explicitly consider whether fingerprint identification in satellite T AC (x, t) data could have been influenced by real-world multidecadal internal variability (MIV). Here we address this question here using large ensembles (LEs) performed with five climate models. LEs provide many different sequences of internal variability noise superimposed on an underlying forced signal. Despite differences in historical external forcings, climate sensitivity, and MIV properties of the five models, their T AC (x, t) fingerprints are similar and statistically identifiable in 239 of the 240 LE realizations of historical climate change. Comparing simulated and observed variability spectra reveals that consistent fingerprint identification is unlikely to be biased by model underestimates of observed MIV. Even in the presence of large (factor of 3–4) intermodel and inter-realization differences in the amplitude of MIV, the anthropogenic fingerprints of seasonal cycle changes are robustly identifiable in models and satellite data. This is primarily due to the fact that the distinctive, global-scale fingerprint patterns are spatially dissimilar to the smaller-scale patterns of internal T AC (x, t) variability associated with the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and El Niño–Southern Oscillation. The robustness of the seasonal cycle detection and attribution results shown here, taken together with the evidence from idealized aquaplanet simulations, suggest that basic physical processes are dictating a common pattern of forced T AC (x, t) changes in observations and in the five LEs. The key processes involved include GHG-induced expansion of the tropics, lapse-rate changes, land surface drying, and sea ice decrease.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Robust evaluation of ENSO in climate models: How many ensemble members are needed?
Large ensembles of model simulations require considerable resources, and thus defining an appropriate ensemble size for a particular application is an important experimental design criterion. We estimate the ensemble size (N) needed to assess a model's ability to capture observed El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) behavior by utilizing the recently developed International CLIVAR ENSO Metrics Package (Planton et al., 2021). Using the larger ensembles available from CMIP6 and the US CLIVAR Large Ensemble Working Group, we find that larger ensembles are needed to robustly capture baseline ENSO characteristics (N > 50) and physical processes (N > 50) than the background climatology (N ≥ 12) and remote ENSO teleconnections (N ≥ 6). While these results vary somewhat across metrics and models, our study quantifies how larger ensembles are required to robustly evaluate simulated ENSO behavior, thereby providing some guidance for the design of model ensembles.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Advancing the Predictability of Water Cycle Phenomena via the Application of AI to Model Ensemble Simulations and Observations
AI has the power to identify new pathways to extended predictability of the water cycle via its application to model ensembles together with accompanying observations. We discuss both scientific and technological aspects of this challenge, and address the parts of the MODEX approach involving “Model simulations, evaluation, analysis, and benchmarking” and “Identification of key knowledge gaps”. The widespread incorporation of AI into model analysis will significantly advance Earth system predictability and our predictive capabilities.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Jitter-induced Max-of-N fluence distribution at the National Ignition Facility
Max-of-N fluence is the maximum peak fluence at a given location over N number of shots and is important for calculating fluence dependence for intrinsic laser-induced optic damage. Previously, we observed the Max-of-N effect on the National Ignition Facility and developed an ad-hoc model to calculate its effect. In this work, we attempt to understand the fundamental mechanism that causes this Max-of-N effect. We conclude that the primary fundamental mechanism responsible for this effect is dominated by the combination of fluence variations and pointing jitter of the laser. This discovery both strengthens our model for predicting optics longevity and gives us insight into how to mitigate this effect.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Multi-Frequency Analysis of Simulated versus Observed Variability in Tropospheric Temperature
Studies seeking to identify a human-caused global warming signal generally rely on climate model estimates of the “noise” of intrinsic natural variability. Assessing the reliability of these noise estimates is of critical importance. We evaluate here the statistical significance of differences between climate model and observational natural variability spectra for global-mean mid- to upper-tropospheric temperature (TMT). We use TMT information from satellites and large multimodel ensembles of forced and unforced simulations. Our main goal is to explore the sensitivity of model-versus-data spectral comparisons to a wide range of subjective decisions. These include the choice of satellite and climate model TMT datasets, the method for separating signal and noise, the frequency range considered, and the statistical model used to represent observed natural variability. Of particular interest is the amplitude of the interdecadal noise against which an anthropogenic tropospheric warming signal must be detected. We find that on time scales of 5–20 years, observed TMT variability is (on average) overestimated by the last two generations of climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. This result is relatively insensitive to different plausible analyst choices, enhancing confidence in previous claims of detectable anthropogenic warming of the troposphere and indicating that these claims may be conservative. A further key finding is that two commonly used statistical models of short-term and long-term memory have deficiencies in their ability to capture the complex shape of observed TMT spectra.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Quantifying stochastic uncertainty in detection time of human-caused climate signals
Significance Climate observations comprise one sequence of natural internal variability and the response to external forcings. Large initial condition ensembles (LEs) performed with a single climate model provide many different sequences of internal variability and forced response. LEs allow analysts to quantify random uncertainty in the time required to detect forced “fingerprint” patterns. For tropospheric temperature, the consistency between fingerprint detection times in satellite data and in 2 different LEs depends primarily on the size of the simulated warming in response to greenhouse gas increases and the simulated cooling caused by anthropogenic aerosols. Consistency is closest for a model with high sensitivity and large aerosol-driven cooling. Assessing whether this result is physically reasonable will require reducing currently large aerosol forcing uncertainties.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Human influence on the seasonal cycle of tropospheric temperature
We provide scientific evidence that a human-caused signal in the seasonal cycle of tropospheric temperature has emerged from the background noise of natural variability. Satellite data and the anthropogenic “fingerprint” predicted by climate models show common large-scale changes in geographical patterns of seasonal cycle amplitude. These common features include increases in amplitude at mid-latitudes in both hemispheres, amplitude decreases at high latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere, and small changes in the tropics. Simple physical mechanisms explain these features. The model fingerprint of seasonal cycle changes is identifiable with high statistical confidence in five out of six satellite temperature datasets. Our results suggest that attribution studies with the changing seasonal cycle provide powerful evidence for a significant human effect on Earth’s climate.
Santer, Benjamin D.↗
Latent Variable Network Modeling
lvnm Is a library for fitting latent variable network models within the R programming language. The code focuses on the Stochastic Block Model, Weighted Stochastic Block Model, and Dynamic Stochastic Block Model. Features include simulation methods, estimation methods, diagnostic plots and anomaly detection routines for network data.
Dabbs, Beau↗
Context-aided analysis of community evolution in networks
Here, we are interested in detecting and analyzing global changes in dynamic networks (networks that evolve with time). More precisely, we consider changes in the activity distribution within the network, in terms of density (ie, edge existence) and intensity (ie, edge weight). Detecting change in local properties, as well as individual measurements or metrics, has been well studied and often reduces to traditional statistical process control. In contrast, detecting change in larger scale structure of the network is more challenging and not as well understood. We address this problem by proposing a framework for detecting change in network structure based on separate pieces: a probabilistic model for partitioning nodes by their behavior, a label-unswitching heuristic, and an approach to change detection for sequences of complex objects. We examine the performance of one instantiation of such a framework using mostly previously available pieces. The dataset we use for these investigations is the publicly available New York City Taxi and Limousine Commission dataset covering all taxi trips in New York City since 2009. Using it, we investigate the evolution of an ensemble of networks under different spatiotemporal resolutions. We identify the community structure by fitting a weighted stochastic block model. In conclusion, we offer insights on different node ranking and clustering methods, their ability to capture the rhythm of life in the Big Apple, and their potential usefulness in highlighting changes in the underlying network structure.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗