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Packard, Michael H.

Publications and source records attributed to Packard, Michael H..

The Use of Probabilistic Methods to Evaluate the Systems Impact of Component Design Improvements on Large Turbofan Engines

Probabilistic Structural Analysis (PSA) is now commonly used for predicting the distribution of time/cycles to failure of turbine blades and other engine components. These distributions are typically based on fatigue/fracture and creep failure modes of these components. Additionally, reliability analysis is used for taking test data related to particular failure modes and calculating failure rate distributions of electronic and electromechanical components. How can these individual failure time distributions of structural, electronic and electromechanical component failure modes be effectively combined into a top level model for overall system evaluation of component upgrades, changes in maintenance intervals, or line replaceable unit (LRU) redesign? This paper shows an example of how various probabilistic failure predictions for turbine engine components can be evaluated and combined to show their effect on overall engine performance. A generic model of a turbofan engine was modeled using various Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) tools (Quantitative Risk Assessment Software (QRAS) etc.). Hypothetical PSA results for a number of structural components along with mitigation factors that would restrict the failure mode from propagating to a Loss of Mission (LOM) failure were used in the models. The output of this program includes an overall failure distribution for LOM of the system. The rank and contribution to the overall Mission Success (MS) is also given for each failure mode and each subsystem. This application methodology demonstrates the effectiveness of PRA for assessing the performance of large turbine engines. Additionally, the effects of system changes and upgrades, the application of different maintenance intervals, inclusion of new sensor detection of faults and other upgrades were evaluated in determining overall turbine engine reliability.

Packard, Michael H.

Reliability and Maintainability (RAM) Training

The theme of this manual is failure physics-the study of how products, hardware, software, and systems fail and what can be done about it. The intent is to impart useful information, to extend the limits of production capability, and to assist in achieving low-cost reliable products. In a broader sense the manual should do more. It should underscore the urgent need CI for mature attitudes toward reliability. Five of the chapters were originally presented as a classroom course to over 1000 Martin Marietta engineers and technicians. Another four chapters and three appendixes have been added, We begin with a view of reliability from the years 1940 to 2000. Chapter 2 starts the training material with a review of mathematics and a description of what elements contribute to product failures. The remaining chapters elucidate basic reliability theory and the disciplines that allow us to control and eliminate failures.

Lalli, Vincent R.

Software Design Improvements: Software Quality and the Design and Inspection Process - Part 2

The application of assurance engineering techniques improves the duration of failure-free performance of software. The totality of features and characteristics of a software product are what determine its ability to satisfy customer needs. Software in safety-critical systems is very important to NASA. We follow the System Safety Working Groups definition for system safety software as: 'The optimization of system safety in the design, development, use and maintenance of software and its integration with safety-critical systems in an operational environment. 'If it is not safe, say so' has become our motto. This paper goes over methods that have been used by NASA to make software design improvements by focusing on software quality and the design and inspection process.

Lalli, Vincent R.

Designing for Maintainability and System Availability

The final goal for a delivered system (whether a car, aircraft, avionics box or computer) should be its availability to operate and perform its intended function over its expected design life. Hence, in designing a system, we cannot think in terms of delivering the system and just walking away. The system supplier needs to provide support throughout the operating life of the product. Here, supportability requires an effective combination of reliability, maintainability, logistics and operations engineering (as well as safety engineering) to have a system that is available for its intended use throughout its designated mission lifetime. Maintainability is a key driving element in the effective support and upkeep of the system as well as providing the ability to modify and upgrade the system throughout its lifetime. This paper then, will concentrate on maintainability and its integration into the system engineering and design process. The topics to be covered include elements of maintainability, the total cost of ownership, how system availability, maintenance and logistics costs and spare parts cost effect the overall program costs. System analysis and maintainability will show how maintainability fits into the overall systems approach to project development. Maintainability processes and documents will focus on how maintainability is to be performed and what documents are typically generated for a large scale program. Maintainability analysis shows how trade-offs can be performed for various alternative components. The conclusions summarize the paper and are followed by specific problems for hands-on training.

Lalli, Vincent R.

Software Design Improvements: Software Benefits and Limitations - Part 1

Computer hardware and associated software have been used for many years to process accounting information, to analyze test data and to perform engineering analysis. Now computers and software also control everything from automobiles to washing machines and the number and type of applications are growing at an exponential rate. The size of individual program has shown similar growth. Furthermore, software and hardware are used to monitor and/or control potentially dangerous products and safety-critical systems. These uses include everything from airplanes and braking systems to medical devices and nuclear plants. The question is: how can this hardware and software be made more reliable? Also, how can software quality be improved? What methodology needs to be provided on large and small software products to improve the design and how can software be verified?

Lalli, Vincent R.